Where Does Ryan Tannehill Rank In The Pantheon Of Great QBs?

by Chase Stuart on July 2, 2016

Tannehill escapes the numbers, if not the pass rush

In each of his four seasons in the NFL, Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been responsible for at least 96% of his team’s pass attempts. In fact, over the last three years, only 13 pass attempts for the Dolphins have come from someone other than Tannehill. He’s been the entrenched starter since week 1 of his rookie year.

There have been 88 quarterbacks since 1970 who have taken at least 90% of the same team’s pass attempts in every year in any four-year window. That includes eight such streaks that cover the last four years (Tannehill, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson).

Among non-proprietary measures, my preferred measure of quarterback play is Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, which is yards per attempt with adjustments for touchdowns, interceptions, and sacks. The fine folks at Pro-Football-Reference.com have created a passing index for this (among other) stat, known as ANY/A+, where 100 represents league average, and 85 and 115 represent one standard deviation below/above average. Tannehill’s ANY/A+ was 92 his rookie year, 87 in 2013, 96 in 2014, and 95 last year.

Statistics like ANY/A never tell the full story, but let’s present them just to set the discussion. The table below shows each of the 88 quarterbacks identified above, along with their ANY/A+ in each year during such stretch, the passer’s average ANY/A+, and the number of playoff games started by that quarterback during that four-year window. As you can see, Tannehill stands out: he has the second worst ANY/A+ of any quarterback during that span, and is one of just three quarterbacks that failed to start a single playoff game.

Quarterback	Years	Tm	Yr 1	Yr 2	Yr 3	Yr 4	Avg	Playoff Starts
Mark Sanchez	2009--2012	NYJ	80	96	89	81	86.5	6
Ryan Tannehill	2012--2015	MIA	92	87	96	95	92.5	0
Joe Flacco	2010--2013	BAL	107	98	105	80	97.5	8
Joe Flacco	2011--2014	BAL	98	105	80	108	97.75	8
Eli Manning	2005--2008	NYG	102	95	91	104	98	7
Andy Dalton	2011--2014	CIN	97	97	104	95	98.25	4
Richard Todd	1980--1983	NYJ	86	109	113	90	99.5	4
Drew Bledsoe	1994--1997	NWE	98	86	108	111	100.75	6
Eli Manning	2006--2009	NYG	95	91	104	114	101	6
Eli Manning	2012--2015	NYG	109	81	108	108	101.5	0
Joe Flacco	2008--2011	BAL	96	105	107	98	101.5	9
Matthew Stafford	2012--2015	DET	99	106	99	103	101.75	1
Brett Favre	2003--2006	GNB	107	119	88	97	102.75	3
Eli Manning	2007--2010	NYG	91	104	114	104	103.25	5
Joe Ferguson	1979--1982	BUF	115	103	116	79	103.25	3
Richard Todd	1979--1982	NYJ	106	86	109	113	103.5	4
Eli Manning	2010--2013	NYG	104	121	109	81	103.75	4
Joe Flacco	2009--2012	BAL	105	107	98	105	103.75	10
Aaron Brooks	2001--2004	NOR	96	107	111	103	104.25	0
Eli Manning	2011--2014	NYG	121	109	81	108	104.75	4
Matthew Stafford	2011--2014	DET	115	99	106	99	104.75	2
Matt Ryan	2012--2015	ATL	114	96	108	102	105	2
Brett Favre	2002--2005	GNB	107	107	119	88	105.25	4
Brett Favre	2004--2007	GNB	119	88	97	121	106.25	3
Doug Williams	1979--1982	TAM	94	107	123	102	106.5	4
Philip Rivers	2012--2015	SDG	94	124	105	104	106.75	2
Matt Ryan	2010--2013	ATL	105	113	114	96	107	4
Matt Ryan	2011--2014	ATL	113	114	96	108	107.75	3
Joe Theismann	1979--1982	WAS	113	99	106	113	107.75	4
Brett Favre	1997--2000	GNB	120	110	100	102	108	4
Philip Rivers	2011--2014	SDG	110	94	124	105	108.25	2
Ron Jaworski	1980--1983	PHI	130	103	99	101	108.25	4
Brett Favre	1999--2002	GNB	100	102	125	107	108.5	3
Ron Jaworski	1977--1980	PHI	92	100	113	130	108.75	6
Brett Favre	1998--2001	GNB	110	100	102	125	109.25	3
Jim Everett	1989--1992	RAM	126	110	97	105	109.5	3
Brett Favre	2000--2003	GNB	102	125	107	107	110.25	5
Eli Manning	2008--2011	NYG	104	114	104	121	110.75	5
Ron Jaworski	1979--1982	PHI	113	130	103	99	111.25	6
Tom Brady	2002--2005	NWE	105	107	118	116	111.5	8
Ron Jaworski	1978--1981	PHI	100	113	130	103	111.5	7
Joe Theismann	1980--1983	WAS	99	106	113	129	111.75	7
Eli Manning	2009--2012	NYG	114	104	121	109	112	4
Tom Brady	2003--2006	NWE	107	118	116	108	112.25	11
Philip Rivers	2010--2013	SDG	122	110	94	124	112.5	2
Brian Sipe	1978--1981	CLE	122	105	127	96	112.5	1
Brett Favre	1996--1999	GNB	121	120	110	100	112.75	7
Peyton Manning	1998--2001	IND	96	120	127	109	113	2
Brett Favre	1993--1996	GNB	90	111	130	121	113	10
Jim Everett	1988--1991	RAM	120	126	110	97	113.25	4
Tom Brady	2012--2015	NWE	120	102	113	120	113.75	9
Joe Theismann	1981--1984	WAS	106	113	129	108	114	8
Philip Rivers	2009--2012	SDG	131	122	110	94	114.25	1
Brett Favre	2001--2004	GNB	125	107	107	119	114.5	6
Dan Marino	1989--1992	MIA	112	113	117	117	114.75	4
Dan Marino	1988--1991	MIA	118	112	113	117	115	2
Russell Wilson	2012--2015	SEA	114	115	109	124	115.5	10
Tony Romo	2011--2014	DAL	120	106	108	128	115.5	2
Drew Brees	2012--2015	NOR	116	121	109	117	115.75	2
Drew Brees	2007--2010	NOR	107	122	131	103	115.75	4
Roger Staubach	1974--1977	DAL	105	114	120	124	115.75	7
Trent Green	2001--2004	KAN	97	127	122	120	116.5	1
Jim Hart	1975--1978	STL	116	126	112	112	116.5	1
Tom Brady	2011--2014	NWE	132	120	102	113	116.75	10
Peyton Manning	2007--2010	IND	122	115	122	108	116.75	6
Peyton Manning	1999--2002	IND	120	127	109	113	117.25	3
Drew Brees	2010--2013	NOR	103	132	116	121	118	5
Jim Hart	1974--1977	STL	118	116	126	112	118	2
Peyton Manning	2000--2003	IND	127	109	113	125	118.5	5
Rich Gannon	1999--2002	OAK	110	121	119	126	119	7
Philip Rivers	2006--2009	SDG	116	102	128	131	119.25	7
Drew Brees	2011--2014	NOR	132	116	121	109	119.5	4
Brett Favre	1995--1998	GNB	130	121	120	110	120.25	10
Tom Brady	2010--2013	NWE	128	132	120	102	120.5	8
Drew Brees	2009--2012	NOR	131	103	132	116	120.5	6
Brett Favre	1994--1997	GNB	111	130	121	120	120.5	11
Philip Rivers	2007--2010	SDG	102	128	131	122	120.75	6
Tom Brady	2004--2007	NWE	118	116	108	142	121	11
Trent Green	2002--2005	KAN	127	122	120	116	121.25	1
Drew Brees	2006--2009	NOR	127	107	122	131	121.75	5
Roger Staubach	1975--1978	DAL	114	120	124	129	121.75	10
Drew Brees	2008--2011	NOR	122	131	103	132	122	6
Peyton Manning	2006--2009	IND	131	122	115	122	122.5	9
Philip Rivers	2008--2011	SDG	128	131	122	110	122.75	3
Tom Brady	2009--2012	NWE	120	128	132	120	125	7
Peyton Manning	2001--2004	IND	109	113	125	153	125	6
Roger Staubach	1976--1979	DAL	120	124	129	133	126.5	8
Dan Fouts	1979--1982	SDG	119	124	134	136	128.25	7

Given how mediocre his numbers have been, and his team’s general lack of success, it’s obvious that the data is missing something. At this point, it’s clear that Tannehill must be on the verge of a break-out season. After all, how else could Miami justify not just giving Tannehill a fifth season, but treating him as the team’s quarterback of the future? The Dolphins have won two Super Bowls and boast arguably the greatest coach and greatest quarterback in league history as franchise icons. The team has won at least 6 games in 44 different seasons since the merger, tied with the Steelers for the most among all NFL teams. Obviously the Dolphins see something in Tannehill that the numbers do not, which brings us back to the question: where does Ryan Tannehill rank in the pantheon of great quarterbacks?

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