≡ Menu

What Can We Expect from Bryce Petty?

Tonight’s game between the Jets and Dolphins certainly falls short of any threshold necessary for primetime television.  That said, for Jets fans, is there anything to get excited about with Bryce Petty?  What does he need to show over the final three games to enter 2017 as part of the conversation for quarterback of the future?

Petty was a 4th round pick who didn’t play last season; his first start came in New York’s 10th game this season, and he will likely that he’ll finish the year with five starts.

Since 1990, here are the quarterbacks who were drafted in the 3rd round or later, didn’t start in the first half of their rookie season, but started at least 3 games in the second half of that season.  Petty wouldn’t meet this definition, but I wanted to run the numbers for context:

Nick Foles
Ryan Lindley
T.J. Yates
John Skelton
Keith Null
Charlie Frye
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Luke McCown
Mike McMahon
Kent Graham
Tom Hodson

Okay, not exactly a promising group there.  What about players more like Petty — 3rd round or later, didn’t start a game in their rookie year, then didn’t start again until the second half of the season of their second season, and started at least 3 games?

Brodie Croyle
Scott Zolak
Bobby Hoying
Aaron Brooks
Koy Detmer
A.J. Feeley
Derek Anderson
A.J. McCarron
Josh McCown

A couple of promising names there, perhaps, with Brooks (at least to me) sticking out as the most promising case. Over the second half of the ’00 season, Brooks ranked 8th in AY/A.  As for Petty? He hardly has shown much yet: he currently ranks last in Adjusted Yards per Attempt over the second half of the year.  But if he has any chance of throwing his hat into the 2017 ring, it starts tonight.

  • My view: if you’re a quarterback and not selected in the first or second round, the deck is really stacked against you for a number of reasons. You actually need to earn the job, which means playing at a level that’s at least better than any other option. Given the Jets situation, that may not be such a high bar, but I think Petty needs to be at least close to league average to be a realistic option next year. Obviously that hasn’t happened yet.

    • Adam

      Yes, draft position matters a lot. Bryce Petty has been bad so far, but Jared Goff has arguably been even worse. Yet Goff is guaranteed to be next year’s opening day starter, solely because he was the #1 overall pick.

  • Richie

    Does it matter to compare to guys who had to wait until the second half of their rookie years?

    For instance, Tom Brady was drafted after the 3rd round. If Bledsoe didn’t get hurt it seems unlikely that he would have played until at least his 3rd season. Same thing pretty much applies to Dak Prescott. He is only playing due to injury.

    Some other guys drafted in the 3rd round or later who took awhile to become starters and ended up with good careers: Brunell, Trent Green, Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson, etc.

    For that matter, pretty much any QB who doesn’t become a starter on opening day is getting the job either due to injury or due to poor play by the incumbent.

    • Yeah, maybe not. I was trying to avoid guys who were playing due to injury, but more identify QBs who were given a shot later in the year when it was more of a lost cause for his team. But I was lazy and didn’t also look up records.

      Anyway, it’s moot. I can’t say I’m impressed by Petty tonight. He did show some things, but three turnovers and that’s just in the first three quarters.

      • Richie

        They just can’t keep Fitzpatrick out.