It was a rough week for a lot of passers in week 4: there were just 39 touchdown passes by the 30 teams, and the league averaged only 5.82 ANY/A. There were a pair of 16-10 victories (NE/BUF, CAR/HOU) where all quarterbacks played poorly, a 16-6 victory that was pretty ugly (CHI/MIN), and a 12-10 matchup on Sunday Night (NO/DAL) that was equally hard to watch.
NFL teams have gotten very conservative in the passing game, and I’d suggest that they are far too conservative. Kirk Cousins did not throw an interception, but that’s because he showed no sign of aggressiveness. Take a look at his passing chart, and keep in mind that this does not show the six times he took a sack:
Cousins completed 75% of his passes, but averaged just 8.6 yards per completion. If you were to include his sacks as completed passes, that would mean he completed 33 passes for just 182 yards, a 5.5 average gain on “completions.”
But I don’t think Minnesota fans were pining for Teddy Bridgewater to return, either. The ex-Vikings quarterback was just as conservative, completing 23 of 30 passes but gaining only 193 yards and taking 5 sacks (the interception wasn’t his fault).
If you include his yards lost due to sacks (44), Bridgewater gained just 5.3 yards on his “completed” passes against the Cowboys. The only figures worse than that in week 4 were by Case Keenum (5.0), Deshaun Watson (4.7), and Andy Dalton (3.5). But we can look at the stat line and see that Keenum, Watson, and Dalton had terrible performances: for Bridgewater, his 77% completion rate helps mask his true performance.
The table below shows the passing stats for week four. As a sharp counter to the conservative guys identified here, two of the most aggressive quarterbacks in the NFL on an annual basis — Philip Rivers and Jameis Winston — provided the most passing value.
| Rk | Quarterback | Tm | Opp | Result | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | ANY/A | VALUE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philip Rivers | LAC | MIA | W 30-10 | 30 | 310 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11.1 | 164 |
| 2 | Jameis Winston | TAM | LAR | W 55-40 | 41 | 385 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9.56 | 161 |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | CLE | BAL | W 40-25 | 30 | 342 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10.06 | 132 |
| 4 | Marcus Mariota | TEN | ATL | W 24-10 | 27 | 227 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.63 | 130 |
| 5 | Mason Rudolph | PIT | CIN | W 27-3 | 28 | 229 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.61 | 106 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | DET | KAN | L 30-34 | 34 | 291 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 8.45 | 100 |
| 7 | Joe Flacco | DEN | JAX | L 24-26 | 38 | 303 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.37 | 97 |
| 8 | Aaron Rodgers | GNB | PHI | L 27-34 | 53 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7.57 | 95 |
| 9 | Patrick Mahomes | KAN | DET | W 34-30 | 42 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 | 71 |
| 10 | Carson Wentz | PHI | GNB | W 34-27 | 27 | 160 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.15 | 63 |
| 11 | Russell Wilson | SEA | ARI | W 27-10 | 28 | 240 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 7.66 | 59 |
| 12 | Derek Carr | OAK | IND | W 31-24 | 31 | 189 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.16 | 43 |
| 13 | Chase Daniel | CHI | MIN | W 16-6 | 30 | 195 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6.71 | 28 |
| 14 | Matt Ryan | ATL | TEN | L 10-24 | 53 | 397 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 6.28 | 26 |
| 15 | Jaylen Samuels | PIT | CIN | W 27-3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.33 | 14 |
| 16 | Jacoby Brissett | IND | OAK | L 24-31 | 46 | 265 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.09 | 12 |
| 17 | Gardner Minshew | JAX | DEN | W 26-24 | 33 | 213 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 5.95 | 5 |
| 18 | Tyrod Taylor | LAC | MIA | W 30-10 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
| 19 | Odell Beckham | CLE | BAL | W 40-25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
| 20 | Mitchell Trubisky | CHI | MIN | W 16-6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 |
| 21 | Kyle Allen | CAR | HOU | W 16-10 | 34 | 232 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 5.49 | -12 |
| 22 | Jared Goff | LAR | TAM | L 40-55 | 68 | 517 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 27 | 5.64 | -12 |
| 23 | Daniel Jones | NYG | WAS | W 24-3 | 31 | 225 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -25 |
| 24 | Matt Barkley | BUF | NWE | L 10-16 | 16 | 127 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4.29 | -26 |
| 25 | Josh Rosen | MIA | LAC | L 10-30 | 24 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 4.89 | -26 |
| 26 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | CLE | L 25-40 | 34 | 247 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 5.05 | -29 |
| 27 | Dak Prescott | DAL | NOR | L 10-12 | 33 | 223 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4.91 | -31 |
| 28 | Kyler Murray | ARI | SEA | L 10-27 | 32 | 241 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 4.47 | -49 |
| 29 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | CAR | L 10-16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -45 | -51 |
| 30 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | CHI | L 6-16 | 36 | 233 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 51 | 4.33 | -62 |
| 31 | Case Keenum | WAS | NYG | L 3-24 | 11 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -0.83 | -80 |
| 32 | Deshaun Watson | HOU | CAR | L 10-16 | 33 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 3.28 | -99 |
| 33 | Teddy Bridgewater | NOR | DAL | W 12-10 | 30 | 193 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 44 | 2.97 | -100 |
| 34 | Tom Brady | NWE | BUF | W 16-10 | 39 | 150 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.69 | -122 |
| 35 | Dwayne Haskins | WAS | NYG | L 3-24 | 17 | 107 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 21 | -2.58 | -160 |
| 36 | Josh Allen | BUF | NWE | L 10-16 | 28 | 153 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 31 | -0.41 | -199 |
| 37 | Andy Dalton | CIN | PIT | L 3-27 | 37 | 171 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 69 | 1.27 | -205 |
| Total | 1083 | 7726 | 39 | 27 | 76 | 544 | 5.82 | 0 |
The Steelers had the biggest passing advantage of the week, and it showed with a 27-3 blowout over the Bengals on Monday Night Football. The graph below shows the passing VALUE (i.e., ANY/A differential multiplied by number of dropbacks) difference between the two passing offenses for each game; the differential is from the perspective of the team with the greater VALUE number, with winners in blue and losers in red.
The better passing team went 11-4 this week, and all four losses could have easily gone the other way. The Broncos led until the game’s final play, but this was a rare example of a running game powering the victory: Leonard Fournette rushed 29 times for 225 yards. The Cowboys lost with the passing edge primarily because of two key fumbles in Cowboys territory, one of which led to an easy field goal before the half. The Eagles/Packers game was even: Carson Wentz actually had a higher ANY/A average than Aaron Rodgers, but had far fewer plays, giving Rodgers the VALUE edge. And finally, we have the Patrick Mahomes–Matthew Stafford battle in Detroit. This was a very eveng ame — both teams had 29 first downs, neither the same number of total yards, and I am comfortable saying Stafford had the slightly better passing stats, but it becomes a lot harder to win a game when you have a 14-point play occur: on 1st-and-goal from the 1-yard line, the Lions nearly scored a touchdown, but instead fumbled, and the ball was scooped up by the Chiefs and returned 100 yards for a Kansas City score.