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Note: the 2016 Game Scripts page is now updated through week 16.

The big win of the week, not surprisingly, came from the Patriots over the Jets. New England was a 17-point favorite over New York, and won by 38 with a Game Script of +20.6. That’s the third best Game Script of the season.

In the world of misleading final scores, the Cowboys beat the Lions by 21 points, but with a Game Script of only +6.6. The Lions actually led in this game, 21-14, late in the 2nd quarter, and trailed by only 7 with 20 minutes left. Dallas then scored two quick touchdowns, and neither team scored in the final ten minutes.

And the comeback of the week belongs to San Francisco. With 5:14 left, the 49ers trailed by 14 points, facing 3rd-and-10 from the Rams 13-yard line. Colin Kaepernick scrambled for a 13-yard touchdown, the 49ers defense forced a three-and-out, and the 49ers put together their second straight touchdown drive of 73+ yards. Then, the 49ers went for two — which is silly, given that the 49ers didn’t go for 2 after the first touchdown — and Kaepernick scrambled for the conversion. That’s how San Francisco won, 22-21, with a -5.5 Game Script.

Below are the week 16 Game Scripts results:

TeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio

Run-heavy teams

The Jets didn’t put up much of a fight: New York ran more than they passed despite getting blown out. That’s not completely unusual — see this game, or this list — but it always surprises me to see a team lose by 38 points and run more than they pass.

Another team that is noteworthy? The Buffalo Bills ran 49 times, the most by any team in over two years. I am pretty sure that when we run the final 2016 Pass Identity numbers, the Bills will be the most run-heavy team in the league.

And, in what won’t be a surprise, the Cowboys come off as run-heavy. Again, don’t let the final score fool you: Dallas was super run-heavy, although part of that was due to the tremendous efficiency of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys first 8 drives ended with six touchdowns and two punts, excluding the end-of-half kneeldown.

On the pass-heavy side of things, we have the Packers and Chargers.  Green Bay doesn’t have a running game, but it does have Aaron Rodgers. Despite blowing out the Vikings, the Packers still are forced to pass on play after play: the only non-Rodgers runs went to WR-turned-RB Ty Montgomery (9 carries for 23 yards) and Christine Michael (4 for 4). And without Melvin Gordon, the Chargers are in a similar boat. Philip Rivers had 46 pass attempts against the Browns, as San Diego finished with the fewest rushing attempts against Cleveland of any team this year.

  • Richie

    Chase, do you think Todd Bowles is going to survive Black Monday?

    • 50/50. What do you think?

      • Richie

        Will they fire him? I have no idea.

        Should they fire him? I don’t think so. But I haven’t followed the Jets close enough to know what went wrong. He seemed to do a good job last year, but I think a lot of their success was due to Fitzpatrick having an outlier season in 2015. I assume even the Jets knew that, which is why it took them so long to re-sign him in the offseason. He fell far short of his 2015 performance. Bryce Petty looked worse. I don’t pretend to be able to judge defensive backs, but my understanding is that Darrelle Revis is really falling off. (Who could have expected a 31-year-old CB with a significant injury in his past would slow down?)

        I felt like the Dolphins had a long injury list this year, but it’s nothing compared to the Jets. The Jets currently have 18 players on IR! Including important players like Eric Decker and Nick Mangold.

        The more I look at it, the more it looks like this was going to be a tough Jets team to succeed with. Can Hackenberg play? Are they going to spend a first round pick on a QB after using a second last year?

  • Deacon Drake

    He’s already Dead Man Walking if they bring him back….Jets are 6-10 next year and he’ll be canned after the first slide. Why waste the time?