Note: the 2016 Game Scripts page is now updated through week 16.
The big win of the week, not surprisingly, came from the Patriots over the Jets. New England was a 17-point favorite over New York, and won by 38 with a Game Script of +20.6. That’s the third best Game Script of the season.
In the world of misleading final scores, the Cowboys beat the Lions by 21 points, but with a Game Script of only +6.6. The Lions actually led in this game, 21-14, late in the 2nd quarter, and trailed by only 7 with 20 minutes left. Dallas then scored two quick touchdowns, and neither team scored in the final ten minutes.
And the comeback of the week belongs to San Francisco. With 5:14 left, the 49ers trailed by 14 points, facing 3rd-and-10 from the Rams 13-yard line. Colin Kaepernick scrambled for a 13-yard touchdown, the 49ers defense forced a three-and-out, and the 49ers put together their second straight touchdown drive of 73+ yards. Then, the 49ers went for two — which is silly, given that the 49ers didn’t go for 2 after the first touchdown — and Kaepernick scrambled for the conversion. That’s how San Francisco won, 22-21, with a -5.5 Game Script.
Below are the week 16 Game Scripts results:
|Team||H/R||Opp||Boxscore||PF||PA||Margin||Game Script||Pass||Run||P/R Ratio||Op_P||Op_R||Opp_P/R Ratio|
The Jets didn’t put up much of a fight: New York ran more than they passed despite getting blown out. That’s not completely unusual — see this game, or this list — but it always surprises me to see a team lose by 38 points and run more than they pass.
Another team that is noteworthy? The Buffalo Bills ran 49 times, the most by any team in over two years. I am pretty sure that when we run the final 2016 Pass Identity numbers, the Bills will be the most run-heavy team in the league.
And, in what won’t be a surprise, the Cowboys come off as run-heavy. Again, don’t let the final score fool you: Dallas was super run-heavy, although part of that was due to the tremendous efficiency of Dak Prescott. The Cowboys first 8 drives ended with six touchdowns and two punts, excluding the end-of-half kneeldown.
On the pass-heavy side of things, we have the Packers and Chargers. Green Bay doesn’t have a running game, but it does have Aaron Rodgers. Despite blowing out the Vikings, the Packers still are forced to pass on play after play: the only non-Rodgers runs went to WR-turned-RB Ty Montgomery (9 carries for 23 yards) and Christine Michael (4 for 4). And without Melvin Gordon, the Chargers are in a similar boat. Philip Rivers had 46 pass attempts against the Browns, as San Diego finished with the fewest rushing attempts against Cleveland of any team this year.