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Kansas City will likely defeat the Raiders on Sunday, capping an impressive 12-4 regular season. Those four losses, however, all came against playoff teams: in New England, in Seattle, in Los Angeles against the Rams, and at home against the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City will have beaten just two playoff teams: the Chargers, and whoever winds up winning the AFC North (the Chiefs went 4-0 against the AFC North, beating Pittsburgh in week 2 and Baltimore in week 14).

Does this mean the Chiefs are less likely to succeed in the playoffs than if, say, they had gone 6-0 against playoff teams and 6-4 against non-playoff teams?

In 2005, the Steelers went 2-4 against playoff teams during the regular season, but went 4-0 in the postseason (with three wins on the road) to win Super Bowl XL.

Meanwhile, the 2011 Ravens did exactly what my hypothetical 2018 Chiefs did: that year, Baltimore went 6-0 against playoff teams and just 6-4 against non-playoff teams. The Ravens defeated the Texans in the Wild Card round before falling to the Patriots in the Division round.

A number of Super Bowl champions performed poorly against playoff teams during the regular season: the 1999 Rams went 0-2, the 2007 Giants went 1-5, the 1980 Raiders went 1-4, the 2011 Giants went 1-3, and the 2005 Steelers and 2012 Ravens both went 2-4. The 2008 Steelers are a Super Bowl champion that had a losing record (3-4) against playoff teams, but went undefeated (9-0) against non-playoff teams.

Where do the Chiefs line up historically? Kansas City is 10 wins above .500 against playoff teams, and 2 wins below .500 against non-playoff teams. Add those numbers together, and the Chiefs get a score of +12. There are 60 teams in the Super Bowl era who finished +12 or higher. The most extreme case belongs to the 2011 Bengals, who went 9-0 against non-playoff teams (+9) and 0-7 against playoffs teams (-7), for a total score of 16 (9 minus -7). The full list, below:

TeamyearReg Sea W%Record vs. PTRecord vs. NonPTPlayoff RecordDiff
CIN20110.5630-79-00-116
JAX19990.8750-214-01-116
ATL20050.5000-78-1Miss14
KAN20130.6881-510-00-114
PHI20090.6880-411-10-114
SDG19920.6880-411-11-114
SDG20040.7501-411-00-114
SFO19960.7501-411-01-114
STL19990.8130-213-13-014
MIA19721.0000-014-03-014
DAL19690.8210-211-0-10-113
SDG19680.6431-58-0Miss12
OAK19700.6430-48-0-21-112
HOU20040.4380-77-2Miss12
NOR19940.4380-77-2Miss12
KAN19790.4380-77-2Miss12
CIN19760.7141-49-0Miss12
HOU19750.7141-49-0Miss12
MIA19910.5001-77-1Miss12
ATL19920.3750-86-2Miss12
CHI20120.6252-68-0Miss12
BAL20170.5630-59-2Miss12
DET20160.5630-59-20-112
BAL20090.5631-68-11-112
PIT19760.7140-310-11-112
MIA19750.7140-310-1Miss12
BAL20080.6882-59-02-112
MIA20010.6882-59-00-112
NWE19850.6882-59-03-112
RAI19840.6882-59-00-112
NYG20070.6251-59-14-012
IND20010.3751-95-1Miss12
NOR19980.3751-95-1Miss12
DET20110.6251-59-10-112
WAS19990.6251-59-11-112
NYG19880.6250-410-2Miss12
OAK19800.6881-410-14-012
DET20140.6881-410-10-112
MIN19920.6881-410-10-112
DEN19850.6881-410-1Miss12
KAN20180.7502-410-0??12
SFO20130.7502-410-02-112
PIT20100.7502-410-02-112
SFO19980.7502-410-01-112
NOR19920.7502-410-00-112
MIA19900.7502-410-01-112
NYG19890.7502-410-00-112
NYG19930.6880-311-21-112
CHI19900.6880-311-21-112
KAN19680.8571-211-00-112
OAK20160.7501-311-10-112
TEN20030.7501-311-11-112
WAS19860.7501-311-12-112
DEN20120.8132-311-00-112
NWE20110.8131-212-12-112
OAK19760.9291-112-03-012
SDG20060.8752-212-00-112
BAL19680.9291-112-02-112
CHI19860.8751-113-10-112

For Chiefs fans, the 2005 Steelers may be the most inspiring name on this list, but not the most memorable. The easy comparison is to Andy Reid’s first team in Kansas City in 2013: that Chiefs team went 10-0 against non-playoff teams but 1-5 against playoff teams and then lost its first playoff game. The big difference: that Kansas City team had to go on the road, while this Chiefs team should be home for the postseason.

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