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Last year, when the Browns were 0-14, I noted that Cleveland was also a pitiful 2-12 against the spread. The worst mark against the spread in a 16-game season was 3-13, which Cleveland managed to avoid. The Browns beat the Chargers (and the spread) in week 16, and then pushed in a 3-point loss in the season finale against, of course, Pittsburgh.

But guess what? After falling to the Bears today, 20-3, the Browns are now 3-12 against the spread (the second worst team is the Broncos, who are 4-10-1). And for the 7th time in 8 years, the Browns will again finish the season against the Steelers.

If you look at the teams that were 3-13 or 3-12-1 against the spread, they tend to do very well the next year. In other words, Vegas perhaps hasn’t quite caught up to the fact that teams that perform terribly against the spread do much better the next year.

TeamYearRecord ATSWin % ATSN+1 Record ATSN+1 Win % ATS
TEN20143-13-00.18755-10-10.34375
BAL20073-13-00.187512-4-00.75
NWE19813-13-00.18756-3-00.667
PIT19803-13-00.18758-8-00.5
CIN19873-12-00.211-5-00.6875
STL20113-12-10.2187511-5-00.6875
NYG20033-12-10.218758-8-00.5
OAK20033-12-10.218756-10-00.375
DAL19973-12-10.218758-7-10.53125
HOU19943-12-10.2187511-5-00.6875
BAL19813-12-10.218754-5-00.444
SFO19783-12-10.218757-8-10.46875
Average3-12.3-0.60.2078.1-6.5-0.30.554

But then you have… the Browns. Cleveland is now 6-24-1 against the spread since the start of last season, ensuring they will finish with the worst mark since 1978 over a 2-year period. The 2014-2015 Titans were the previous record-holder, at 8-23-1 against the spread, followed by the 2008-2009 Jaguars (9-23-0) and four teams at 9-22-1 (’03-’04 Raiders, 2007-2008 Broncos, 1990-1991 Rams, and well, the 2015-2016 Browns).

So not only has Cleveland been historically bad on the field this year, they have been historically bad against the spread for the second year in a row.

{ 2 comments }
  • Mark Growcott

    The Browns played against a Bears team today that was favoured (-6.5) for just the 8th time during the John Fox era (2015-17) but had yet to win a game that they were favoured to win. Sure enough not only did the Bears finally win a game they were supposed to win, they won in convincing fashion. It will be interesting to see the line for next week but chances are this Browns team will not cover the spread next week against the Steelers who likely will still have something to play for which will mean the Browns will match that 3-13 mark for the season.

  • Teto85

    They are the Cleveland Browniest.