The Arizona Cardinals and Pythagenpat Records

by Chase Stuart on December 12, 2014

The secret to Arizona’s success

At 8-1 — but with just a 0.668 Pythagenpat winning percentage — I wrote about the good fortune of the Arizona Cardinals. Fortune is relative: the Cardinals have lost both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton to injuries, and just about every key contributor you can think of along the way. But the team’s good fortune when it comes to Pythagenpat winning percentage has continued. (For the uninitiated, you can read more about how to calculate Pythagenpat records here.)

Since that article, Arizona has gone 3-2 despite being outscored by 10 points. That is both a fact and doubles as the most 2014 Arizona Cardinals sentence you could ever write. The 11-3 Cardinals are definitely not the worst 11-3 team ever, but they aren’t too far from the top of the list. If we look at all teams with at least 11 wins in their first 14 games, Arizona checks in as the 8th biggest overachiever. Given that the 2004 Falcons had a worst points differential *and* were fortunate to face an easy schedule, Arizona can’t match Atlanta when it comes to worst 11-3 teams.

Rk	Team	Year	W	L	T	PF	PA	Win %	PythW%	Diff
1	ATL	2004	11	3	0	301	283	0.786	0.539	0.246
2	IND	2009	14	0	0	394	248	1	0.77	0.23
3	TEN	1999	11	3	0	304	274	0.786	0.566	0.22
4	CLE	1965	11	3	0	363	325	0.786	0.573	0.213
5	PIT	2004	13	1	0	323	220	0.929	0.723	0.205
6	OAK	1976	13	1	0	350	237	0.929	0.73	0.198
7	NWE	2003	12	2	0	296	222	0.857	0.671	0.186
8	ARI	2014	11	3	0	287	244	0.786	0.6	0.186
9	MIN	2000	11	3	0	359	307	0.786	0.602	0.184
10	SFO	1990	13	1	0	323	209	0.929	0.747	0.181
11	IND	2006	11	3	0	376	311	0.786	0.623	0.162
12	NYG	1986	12	2	0	289	205	0.857	0.698	0.159
13	BUF	1991	12	2	0	409	294	0.857	0.707	0.15
14	RAM	1978	11	3	0	266	211	0.786	0.637	0.149
15	ATL	2010	12	2	0	369	261	0.857	0.711	0.146
16	HOU	2012	12	2	0	394	280	0.857	0.712	0.146
17	NYG	1962	12	2	0	398	283	0.857	0.712	0.145
18	IND	1999	12	2	0	388	274	0.857	0.714	0.143
19	WAS	1986	11	3	0	317	251	0.786	0.644	0.142
20	PHI	2003	11	3	0	315	249	0.786	0.644	0.141
21	GNB	2011	13	1	0	480	297	0.929	0.788	0.14
22	ATL	2012	12	2	0	371	259	0.857	0.718	0.139
23	CLE	1948	14	0	0	389	190	1	0.861	0.139
24	NOR	2009	13	1	0	483	298	0.929	0.79	0.139
25	OAK	1969	12	1	1	377	242	0.893	0.759	0.134

If we just look at all teams through 14 games, Arizona still comes in as the 16th biggest overachiever. The 2013 Jets just miss the cut, but that team won its last two games.

Rk	Team	Year	W	L	PF	PA	Win %	PythW%	Diff
1	ATL	2004	11	3	301	283	0.786	0.539	0.246
2	PIT	1962	9	5	312	363	0.643	0.401	0.242
3	IND	2012	9	5	309	358	0.643	0.404	0.239
4	IND	1992	7	7	179	272	0.5	0.269	0.231
5	IND	2009	14	0	394	248	1	0.77	0.23
6	TEN	1999	11	3	304	274	0.786	0.566	0.22
7	CLE	1965	11	3	363	325	0.786	0.573	0.213
8	KAN	2011	6	8	192	319	0.429	0.222	0.206
9	PIT	1989	7	7	206	294	0.5	0.295	0.205
10	PIT	2004	13	1	323	220	0.929	0.723	0.205
11	OAK	1976	13	1	350	237	0.929	0.73	0.198
12	MIN	2005	8	6	249	304	0.571	0.377	0.194
13	OAK	2009	5	9	175	335	0.357	0.168	0.189
14	CLE	1976	9	5	267	287	0.643	0.455	0.188
15	NWE	2003	12	2	296	222	0.857	0.671	0.186
16	ARI	2014	11	3	287	244	0.786	0.6	0.186
17	NOR	1973	5	9	163	312	0.357	0.172	0.185
18	MIN	2000	11	3	359	307	0.786	0.602	0.184
19	SFO	1990	13	1	323	209	0.929	0.747	0.181
20	BUF	2007	7	7	222	299	0.5	0.323	0.177
21	PHI	1995	9	5	283	298	0.643	0.467	0.176
22	CHI	1968	7	7	250	333	0.5	0.325	0.175
23	DEN	2011	8	6	292	343	0.571	0.397	0.175
24	CLE	1986	10	4	310	290	0.714	0.543	0.172
25	PHI	1966	9	5	326	340	0.643	0.472	0.171

For a team that has had a lot of terrible luck this year, the Cardinals have sure been lucky.

Tagged as: Bruce Arians, Cardinals, Pythagenpat Wins

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