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Yesterday, I looked at the Pythagenpat records for all teams since 2000. Since I crunched all that data, I thought it would be fun to look at the biggest outlier teams.

The 2003 Steelers were not very good. Pittsburgh went 6-10, scoring 200 points and allowing 327 points. Because of regression to the mean, the ’04 Steelers were expected to be a little better, and finish with 7.2 wins. Instead, behind a rookie Ben Roethlisberger and an outstanding running game and defense, the Steelers went 15-1, exceeding expectations by 7.8 wins.

Last year’s Panthers also went 15-1, and have a similar story. Cam Newton, the AP MVP, was more of the driving force, of course, but a great running game and defense powered the team. But based on a mediocre ’14 season, Carolina was expected to win only 7.8 games, so the 2015 Panthers exceeded expectations by 7.2 wins.

The third biggest outlier? That would be the ’07 Patriots, who went 16-0 with a projection of just 9.5 wins. The next year, New England was projected to win 10.99 games, and… went 11-5.

The table below shows each team since 2000, and their number of projected and actual wins. The table is sorted by the difference column:

RkTeamYrExp WinsAct WinsDiff
1PIT20047.2157.8
2CAR20157.8157.2
3NWE20079.5166.5
4GNB20118.7156.3
5CHI20016.9136.1
6SFO20117.2135.8
7BAL20067.2135.8
8MIA20085.4115.6
9SDG20068.4145.6
10NWE20038.4145.6
11SDG20046.5125.5
12KAN20135.7115.3
13IND20125.7115.3
14NWE20108.7145.3
15STL20018.7145.3
16DEN20128.0135.0
17NOR20098.0135.0
18SDG20098.0135.0
19GNB20078.0135.0
20KAN20038.0135.0
21SFO20017.2124.8
22ATL20108.4134.6
23DAL20078.4134.6
24SEA20058.4134.6
25PIT20018.4134.6
26ATL20086.5114.5
27IND20099.5144.5
28IND20059.5144.5
29CAR20137.6124.4
30CAR20087.6124.4
31STL20037.6124.4
32NYG20007.6124.4
33ATL20128.7134.3
34TEN20088.7134.3
35DEN20058.7134.3
36BAL20086.9114.1
37CHI20056.9114.1
38TAM20056.9114.1
39ATL20046.9114.1
40NWE20016.9114.1
41PHI20006.9114.1
42DAL20148.0124.0
43BAL20008.0124.0
44OAK20008.0124.0
45MIN20126.1103.9
46TAM20106.1103.9
47NOR20066.1103.9
48NOR20006.1103.9
49ARI20159.1133.9
50SEA20139.1133.9
51NOR20119.1133.9
52CHI20069.1133.9
53GNB20148.2123.8
54GNB20097.2113.8
55NYG20057.2113.8
56DEN20007.2113.8
57NWE200410.2143.8
58PIT20108.4123.6
59BAL20108.4123.6
60JAX20058.4123.6
61TAM20028.4123.6
62GNB20018.4123.6
63NYJ20156.5103.5
64PHI20136.5103.5
65KAN20106.5103.5
66CLE20076.5103.5
67NYJ20066.5103.5
68IND20079.5133.5
69PHI20049.5133.5
70MIN20157.6113.4
71DET20147.6113.4
72NOR20137.6113.4
73SEA20127.6113.4
74CHI20107.6113.4
75CAR20057.6113.4
76CAR20037.6113.4
77TEN20027.6113.4
78CIN20096.7103.3
79HOU20145.793.3
80HOU20128.7123.3
81MIN20098.7123.3
82PIT20088.7123.3
83NYG20088.7123.3
84NWE20068.7123.3
85IND20038.7123.3
86ARI20136.9103.1
87WAS20126.9103.1
88DAL20036.9103.1
89DEN20139.9133.1
90TEN20009.9133.1
91CIN20158.9123.1
92PIT20148.0113.0
93JAX20078.0113.0
94CIN20058.0113.0
95TEN20039.1122.9
96PHI20029.1122.9
97HOU20117.2102.8
98DET20117.2102.8
99PHI20067.2102.8
100WAS20057.2102.8
101NYJ20047.2102.8
102IND20027.2102.8
103NWE201110.2132.8
104SFO20139.3122.7
105KAN20158.4112.6
106NYJ20108.4112.6
107DAL20098.4112.6
108MIA20008.4112.6
109WAS20156.592.5
110CIN20116.592.5
111NYJ20086.592.5
112TAM20076.592.5
113MIA20056.592.5
114NWE20159.5122.5
115DEN20159.5122.5
116NWE20149.5122.5
117NWE20139.5122.5
118BAL20119.5122.5
119PIT20119.5122.5
120IND20049.5122.5
121PHI20039.5122.5
122GNB20029.5122.5
123PHI20098.6112.4
124KAN20057.6102.4
125BAL20037.6102.4
126SEA20037.6102.4
127NYG20027.6102.4
128CIN20035.782.3
129ARI20148.7112.3
130CIN20138.7112.3
131OAK20028.7112.3
132MIN20008.7112.3
133WAS20076.992.1
134JAX20046.992.1
135SEA20149.9122.1
136DEN20149.9122.1
137NWE20129.9122.1
138IND20089.9122.1
139BAL20148.0102.0
140CHI20128.0102.0
141NYG20108.0102.0
142MIN20088.0102.0
143PIT20078.0102.0
144NYG20078.0102.0
145TEN20078.0102.0
146BUF20026.181.9
147ATL20027.69.51.9
148IND20149.1111.9
149IND20139.1111.9
150PHI20019.1111.9
151MIA20019.1111.9
152STL20125.77.51.8
153BUF20147.291.8
154TEN20117.291.8
155DAL20057.291.8
156BUF20047.291.8
157MIN20037.291.8
158SEA20017.291.8
159PIT20007.291.8
160IND200610.2121.8
161STL20105.471.6
162CAR20025.471.6
163CIN20128.4101.6
164ARI20098.4101.6
165SEA20078.4101.6
166DEN20038.4101.6
167MIA20038.4101.6
168NYJ20018.4101.6
169SFO20129.911.51.6
170DEN20116.581.5
171GNB20066.581.5
172TEN20066.581.5
173PHI20088.09.51.5
174SDG20137.691.4
175CHI20087.691.4
176NOR20027.691.4
177CLE20027.691.4
178CIN20149.110.51.4
179PHI20148.7101.3
180DEN20048.7101.3
181GNB20048.7101.3
182ARI20116.981.1
183OAK20106.981.1
184ARI20076.981.1
185SDG20026.981.1
186NOR20109.9111.1
187HOU20098.091.0
188ARI20088.091.0
189MIN20058.091.0
190DEN20028.091.0
191GNB20008.091.0
192NYJ20008.091.0
193DET20008.091.0
194OAK20156.170.9
195DET20076.170.9
196CLE20016.170.9
197ARI20016.170.9
198PIT20159.1100.9
199GNB20109.1100.9
200PHI20109.1100.9
201NWE20099.1100.9
202TAM20009.1100.9
203ATL20157.280.8
204NYJ20137.280.8
205DAL20117.280.8
206MIN20077.280.8
207HOU20077.280.8
208STL20067.280.8
209KAN20027.280.8
210SDG200710.2110.8
211HOU20158.490.6
212SDG20148.490.6
213NYG20128.490.6
214NYJ20098.490.6
215TAM20088.490.6
216DAL20068.490.6
217PIT20029.910.50.6
218CLE20146.570.5
219DET20136.570.5
220TAM20126.570.5
221SFO20066.570.5
222CHI20036.570.5
223ATL20016.570.5
224SEA20159.5100.5
225GNB20159.5100.5
226BAL20129.5100.5
227GNB20039.5100.5
228SFO20029.5100.5
229OAK20019.5100.5
230BAL20019.5100.5
231MIA20137.680.4
232JAX20107.680.4
233SFO20097.680.4
234NOR20087.680.4
235DEN20087.680.4
236GNB201210.6110.4
237PIT200510.6110.4
238TAM20155.760.3
239CAR20115.760.3
240DET20105.760.3
241HOU20065.760.3
242NYG20118.790.3
243KAN20068.790.3
244BAL20048.790.3
245SEA20048.790.3
246NYJ20028.790.3
247TAM20018.790.3
248SEA20106.970.1
249JAX20096.970.1
250SFO20086.970.1
251BUF20066.970.1
252HOU20046.970.1
253ATL20119.9100.1
254IND20009.9100.1
255STL20009.9100.1
256MIA20148.080.0
257PIT20138.080.0
258DAL20138.080.0
259DAL20128.080.0
260OAK20118.080.0
261DEN20098.080.0
262HOU20088.080.0
263CIN20048.080.0
264NOR20048.080.0
265WAS20018.080.0
266NWE200811.0110.0
268MIN20147.070.0
269KAN20149.19-0.1
270BAL20099.19-0.1
271ATL20099.19-0.1
272MIA20029.19-0.1
273NWE20029.19-0.1
274STL20157.27-0.2
275TEN20137.27-0.2
276CAR20127.27-0.2
277MIA20127.27-0.2
278IND201010.210-0.2
279NWE200510.210-0.2
280SDG20015.45-0.4
281BUF20158.48-0.4
282SDG20118.48-0.4
283WAS20088.48-0.4
284MIN20048.48-0.4
285NOR20038.48-0.4
286ATL20146.56-0.5
287BUF20116.56-0.5
288WAS20106.56-0.5
289CLE20056.56-0.5
290ARI20046.56-0.5
291NYG20046.56-0.5
292CIN20016.56-0.5
293SFO20006.56-0.5
294PIT20099.59-0.5
295SDG20059.59-0.5
296NOR20157.67-0.6
297SEA20117.67-0.6
298MIA20107.67-0.6
299BUF20087.67-0.6
300BUF20077.67-0.6
301GNB20139.18.5-0.6
302CHI20138.78-0.7
303BAL20138.78-0.7
304PHI20118.78-0.7
305PHI20078.78-0.7
306WAS20008.78-0.7
307STL20137.87-0.8
308CHI20156.96-0.9
309WAS20046.96-0.9
310DET20046.96-0.9
311MIN20026.96-0.9
312SDG20109.99-0.9
313DAL20089.99-0.9
314DEN20069.99-0.9
315SEA20069.99-0.9
316SDG20128.07-1.0
317CIN20078.07-1.0
318CAR20078.07-1.0
319ATL20068.07-1.0
320WAS20028.07-1.0
321CAR20008.07-1.0
322JAX20156.15-1.1
323DET20036.15-1.1
324IND20159.18-1.1
325NYJ20119.18-1.1
326CHI20119.18-1.1
327SDG20089.18-1.1
328CIN20069.18-1.1
329PIT20069.18-1.1
330NYG20069.18-1.1
331CAR20069.18-1.1
332ATL20059.18-1.1
333DEN20019.18-1.1
334BUF20009.18-1.1
335NYG20157.26-1.2
336BUF20137.26-1.2
337BUF20127.26-1.2
338JAX20027.26-1.2
339NYG20138.47-1.4
340CHI20098.47-1.4
341DEN20078.47-1.4
342SEA20028.47-1.4
343KAN20008.47-1.4
344CLE20126.55-1.5
345SEA20096.55-1.5
346CLE20096.55-1.5
347OAK20086.55-1.5
348OAK20046.55-1.5
349HOU20036.55-1.5
350SFO20149.58-1.5
351PIT20129.58-1.5
352CAR20099.58-1.5
353NYG20099.58-1.5
354JAX20069.58-1.5
355STL20049.58-1.5
356NYG20147.66-1.6
357STL20147.66-1.6
358MIA20117.66-1.6
359BUF20097.66-1.6
360JAX20017.66-1.6
361KAN20017.66-1.6
362JAX20135.74-1.7
363KAN20095.74-1.7
364OAK20075.74-1.7
365SFO20055.74-1.7
366PHI20158.77-1.7
367KAN20118.77-1.7
368NOR20078.77-1.7
369SFO20038.77-1.7
370BAL20028.77-1.7
371NOR20018.77-1.7
372CLE20106.95-1.9
373OAK20096.95-1.9
374ARI20066.95-1.9
375DAL20026.95-1.9
376DAL20016.95-1.9
377TEN20099.98-1.9
378MIA20158.06-2.0
379NYJ20128.06-2.0
380TEN20108.06-2.0
381SFO20108.06-2.0
382STL20058.06-2.0
383BUF20038.06-2.0
384CAR20149.57.5-2.0
385WAS20146.14-2.1
386DET20159.17-2.1
387NOR20149.17-2.1
388MIA20099.17-2.1
389CAR20049.17-2.1
390WAS20117.25-2.2
391ARI20057.25-2.2
392DET20057.25-2.2
393JAX20037.25-2.2
394CHI20007.25-2.2
395TEN20128.46-2.4
396HOU20108.46-2.4
397MIA20068.46-2.4
398MIN20068.46-2.4
399BAL20058.46-2.4
400NYJ20038.46-2.4
401SEA20008.46-2.4
402OAK20136.54-2.5
403CIN20006.54-2.5
404TAM20039.57-2.5
405NYG20019.57-2.5
406SFO20077.65-2.6
407TAM20047.65-2.6
408CHI20047.65-2.6
409WAS20037.65-2.6
410ARI20027.65-2.6
411TEN20155.73-2.7
412DET20025.73-2.7
413CLE20005.73-2.7
414DAL20048.76-2.7
415IND20018.76-2.7
416CLE20136.94-2.9
417CLE20116.94-2.9
418OAK20056.94-2.9
419TEN20056.94-2.9
420CLE20046.94-2.9
421ARI20036.94-2.9
422ATL20006.94-2.9
423NOR20129.97-2.9
424CHI20079.97-2.9
425KAN20049.97-2.9
426TEN20019.97-2.9
427PIT20038.96-2.9
428DET20095.02-3.0
429SFO20158.05-3.0
430CHI20148.05-3.0
431ARI20128.05-3.0
432JAX20118.05-3.0
433NWE20008.05-3.0
434DAL20008.05-3.0
435CIN20087.64.5-3.1
436DAL20109.16-3.1
437BUF20107.24-3.2
438CLE20067.24-3.2
439MIN20138.75.5-3.2
440STL200210.27-3.2
441JAX200010.27-3.2
442BUF20058.45-3.4
443CLE20038.45-3.4
444JAX20146.53-3.5
445OAK20146.53-3.5
446MIN20109.56-3.5
447ATL20038.65-3.6
448TAM20137.64-3.6
449ATL20077.64-3.6
450BAL20158.75-3.7
451ARI20108.75-3.7
452WAS20068.75-3.7
453DET20066.93-3.9
454GNB20089.96-3.9
455PHI20059.96-3.9
456NYJ20148.04-4.0
457OAK20128.04-4.0
458PHI20128.04-4.0
459DEN20108.04-4.0
460WAS20098.04-4.0
461SDG20038.04-4.0
462STL20086.12-4.1
463JAX20089.15-4.1
464MIN20019.15-4.1
465MIN20117.23-4.2
466ARI20007.23-4.2
467SDG20158.44-4.4
468KAN20078.44-4.4
469TAM20146.52-4.5
470KAN20086.52-4.5
471OAK20066.52-4.5
472TEN20049.55-4.5
473CLE20157.63-4.6
474STL20095.71-4.7
475DET20128.74-4.7
476TAM20118.74-4.7
477CIN20108.74-4.7
478SEA20088.74-4.7
479CLE20088.74-4.7
480NYJ20078.74-4.7
481GNB20058.74-4.7
482NYJ20058.74-4.7
483MIA20048.74-4.7
484NYG20038.74-4.7
485JAX20126.92-4.9
486BAL20079.95-4.9
487STL20078.03-5.0
488NOR20058.03-5.0
489BUF20018.03-5.0
490TAM20069.14-5.1
491OAK20039.14-5.1
492CIN20027.22-5.2
493TAM20098.43-5.4
494DAL20159.54-5.5
495TEN20147.62-5.6
496KAN20127.62-5.6
497STL20117.62-5.6
498HOU20057.62-5.6
499SFO20047.62-5.6
500WAS20138.73-5.7
501ATL20139.94-5.9
502CHI20029.94-5.9
503CAR20108.02-6.0
504MIA20077.21-6.2
505DET20018.42-6.4
506CAR20017.61-6.6
507IND20118.72-6.7
508SDG20008.01-7.0
509HOU20139.52-7.5
510DET20087.60-7.6

Unsurprisingly, the 2008 Lions are at the bottom of the list. Going 0-16 doesn’t help matters, but even at 1-15 the Lions still would have ranked in the bottom five. That’s because Detroit was pretty decent in 2007, and was projected for 7.6 wins in 2008. The 2013 Houston Texans had one of the biggest collapses in recent memory, falling from 12-4 to 2-14; they rank as the second biggest disappointing team since 2000.

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