The 2004 Steelers, 2015 Panthers, and Exceeding Expectations

by Chase Stuart on April 13, 2016

Yesterday, I looked at the Pythagenpat records for all teams since 2000. Since I crunched all that data, I thought it would be fun to look at the biggest outlier teams.

The 2003 Steelers were not very good. Pittsburgh went 6-10, scoring 200 points and allowing 327 points. Because of regression to the mean, the ’04 Steelers were expected to be a little better, and finish with 7.2 wins. Instead, behind a rookie Ben Roethlisberger and an outstanding running game and defense, the Steelers went 15-1, exceeding expectations by 7.8 wins.

Last year’s Panthers also went 15-1, and have a similar story. Cam Newton, the AP MVP, was more of the driving force, of course, but a great running game and defense powered the team. But based on a mediocre ’14 season, Carolina was expected to win only 7.8 games, so the 2015 Panthers exceeded expectations by 7.2 wins.

The third biggest outlier? That would be the ’07 Patriots, who went 16-0 with a projection of just 9.5 wins. The next year, New England was projected to win 10.99 games, and… went 11-5.

The table below shows each team since 2000, and their number of projected and actual wins. The table is sorted by the difference column:

Rk	Team	Yr	Exp Wins	Act Wins	Diff
1	PIT	2004	7.2	15	7.8
2	CAR	2015	7.8	15	7.2
3	NWE	2007	9.5	16	6.5
4	GNB	2011	8.7	15	6.3
5	CHI	2001	6.9	13	6.1
6	SFO	2011	7.2	13	5.8
7	BAL	2006	7.2	13	5.8
8	MIA	2008	5.4	11	5.6
9	SDG	2006	8.4	14	5.6
10	NWE	2003	8.4	14	5.6
11	SDG	2004	6.5	12	5.5
12	KAN	2013	5.7	11	5.3
13	IND	2012	5.7	11	5.3
14	NWE	2010	8.7	14	5.3
15	STL	2001	8.7	14	5.3
16	DEN	2012	8.0	13	5.0
17	NOR	2009	8.0	13	5.0
18	SDG	2009	8.0	13	5.0
19	GNB	2007	8.0	13	5.0
20	KAN	2003	8.0	13	5.0
21	SFO	2001	7.2	12	4.8
22	ATL	2010	8.4	13	4.6
23	DAL	2007	8.4	13	4.6
24	SEA	2005	8.4	13	4.6
25	PIT	2001	8.4	13	4.6
26	ATL	2008	6.5	11	4.5
27	IND	2009	9.5	14	4.5
28	IND	2005	9.5	14	4.5
29	CAR	2013	7.6	12	4.4
30	CAR	2008	7.6	12	4.4
31	STL	2003	7.6	12	4.4
32	NYG	2000	7.6	12	4.4
33	ATL	2012	8.7	13	4.3
34	TEN	2008	8.7	13	4.3
35	DEN	2005	8.7	13	4.3
36	BAL	2008	6.9	11	4.1
37	CHI	2005	6.9	11	4.1
38	TAM	2005	6.9	11	4.1
39	ATL	2004	6.9	11	4.1
40	NWE	2001	6.9	11	4.1
41	PHI	2000	6.9	11	4.1
42	DAL	2014	8.0	12	4.0
43	BAL	2000	8.0	12	4.0
44	OAK	2000	8.0	12	4.0
45	MIN	2012	6.1	10	3.9
46	TAM	2010	6.1	10	3.9
47	NOR	2006	6.1	10	3.9
48	NOR	2000	6.1	10	3.9
49	ARI	2015	9.1	13	3.9
50	SEA	2013	9.1	13	3.9
51	NOR	2011	9.1	13	3.9
52	CHI	2006	9.1	13	3.9
53	GNB	2014	8.2	12	3.8
54	GNB	2009	7.2	11	3.8
55	NYG	2005	7.2	11	3.8
56	DEN	2000	7.2	11	3.8
57	NWE	2004	10.2	14	3.8
58	PIT	2010	8.4	12	3.6
59	BAL	2010	8.4	12	3.6
60	JAX	2005	8.4	12	3.6
61	TAM	2002	8.4	12	3.6
62	GNB	2001	8.4	12	3.6
63	NYJ	2015	6.5	10	3.5
64	PHI	2013	6.5	10	3.5
65	KAN	2010	6.5	10	3.5
66	CLE	2007	6.5	10	3.5
67	NYJ	2006	6.5	10	3.5
68	IND	2007	9.5	13	3.5
69	PHI	2004	9.5	13	3.5
70	MIN	2015	7.6	11	3.4
71	DET	2014	7.6	11	3.4
72	NOR	2013	7.6	11	3.4
73	SEA	2012	7.6	11	3.4
74	CHI	2010	7.6	11	3.4
75	CAR	2005	7.6	11	3.4
76	CAR	2003	7.6	11	3.4
77	TEN	2002	7.6	11	3.4
78	CIN	2009	6.7	10	3.3
79	HOU	2014	5.7	9	3.3
80	HOU	2012	8.7	12	3.3
81	MIN	2009	8.7	12	3.3
82	PIT	2008	8.7	12	3.3
83	NYG	2008	8.7	12	3.3
84	NWE	2006	8.7	12	3.3
85	IND	2003	8.7	12	3.3
86	ARI	2013	6.9	10	3.1
87	WAS	2012	6.9	10	3.1
88	DAL	2003	6.9	10	3.1
89	DEN	2013	9.9	13	3.1
90	TEN	2000	9.9	13	3.1
91	CIN	2015	8.9	12	3.1
92	PIT	2014	8.0	11	3.0
93	JAX	2007	8.0	11	3.0
94	CIN	2005	8.0	11	3.0
95	TEN	2003	9.1	12	2.9
96	PHI	2002	9.1	12	2.9
97	HOU	2011	7.2	10	2.8
98	DET	2011	7.2	10	2.8
99	PHI	2006	7.2	10	2.8
100	WAS	2005	7.2	10	2.8
101	NYJ	2004	7.2	10	2.8
102	IND	2002	7.2	10	2.8
103	NWE	2011	10.2	13	2.8
104	SFO	2013	9.3	12	2.7
105	KAN	2015	8.4	11	2.6
106	NYJ	2010	8.4	11	2.6
107	DAL	2009	8.4	11	2.6
108	MIA	2000	8.4	11	2.6
109	WAS	2015	6.5	9	2.5
110	CIN	2011	6.5	9	2.5
111	NYJ	2008	6.5	9	2.5
112	TAM	2007	6.5	9	2.5
113	MIA	2005	6.5	9	2.5
114	NWE	2015	9.5	12	2.5
115	DEN	2015	9.5	12	2.5
116	NWE	2014	9.5	12	2.5
117	NWE	2013	9.5	12	2.5
118	BAL	2011	9.5	12	2.5
119	PIT	2011	9.5	12	2.5
120	IND	2004	9.5	12	2.5
121	PHI	2003	9.5	12	2.5
122	GNB	2002	9.5	12	2.5
123	PHI	2009	8.6	11	2.4
124	KAN	2005	7.6	10	2.4
125	BAL	2003	7.6	10	2.4
126	SEA	2003	7.6	10	2.4
127	NYG	2002	7.6	10	2.4
128	CIN	2003	5.7	8	2.3
129	ARI	2014	8.7	11	2.3
130	CIN	2013	8.7	11	2.3
131	OAK	2002	8.7	11	2.3
132	MIN	2000	8.7	11	2.3
133	WAS	2007	6.9	9	2.1
134	JAX	2004	6.9	9	2.1
135	SEA	2014	9.9	12	2.1
136	DEN	2014	9.9	12	2.1
137	NWE	2012	9.9	12	2.1
138	IND	2008	9.9	12	2.1
139	BAL	2014	8.0	10	2.0
140	CHI	2012	8.0	10	2.0
141	NYG	2010	8.0	10	2.0
142	MIN	2008	8.0	10	2.0
143	PIT	2007	8.0	10	2.0
144	NYG	2007	8.0	10	2.0
145	TEN	2007	8.0	10	2.0
146	BUF	2002	6.1	8	1.9
147	ATL	2002	7.6	9.5	1.9
148	IND	2014	9.1	11	1.9
149	IND	2013	9.1	11	1.9
150	PHI	2001	9.1	11	1.9
151	MIA	2001	9.1	11	1.9
152	STL	2012	5.7	7.5	1.8
153	BUF	2014	7.2	9	1.8
154	TEN	2011	7.2	9	1.8
155	DAL	2005	7.2	9	1.8
156	BUF	2004	7.2	9	1.8
157	MIN	2003	7.2	9	1.8
158	SEA	2001	7.2	9	1.8
159	PIT	2000	7.2	9	1.8
160	IND	2006	10.2	12	1.8
161	STL	2010	5.4	7	1.6
162	CAR	2002	5.4	7	1.6
163	CIN	2012	8.4	10	1.6
164	ARI	2009	8.4	10	1.6
165	SEA	2007	8.4	10	1.6
166	DEN	2003	8.4	10	1.6
167	MIA	2003	8.4	10	1.6
168	NYJ	2001	8.4	10	1.6
169	SFO	2012	9.9	11.5	1.6
170	DEN	2011	6.5	8	1.5
171	GNB	2006	6.5	8	1.5
172	TEN	2006	6.5	8	1.5
173	PHI	2008	8.0	9.5	1.5
174	SDG	2013	7.6	9	1.4
175	CHI	2008	7.6	9	1.4
176	NOR	2002	7.6	9	1.4
177	CLE	2002	7.6	9	1.4
178	CIN	2014	9.1	10.5	1.4
179	PHI	2014	8.7	10	1.3
180	DEN	2004	8.7	10	1.3
181	GNB	2004	8.7	10	1.3
182	ARI	2011	6.9	8	1.1
183	OAK	2010	6.9	8	1.1
184	ARI	2007	6.9	8	1.1
185	SDG	2002	6.9	8	1.1
186	NOR	2010	9.9	11	1.1
187	HOU	2009	8.0	9	1.0
188	ARI	2008	8.0	9	1.0
189	MIN	2005	8.0	9	1.0
190	DEN	2002	8.0	9	1.0
191	GNB	2000	8.0	9	1.0
192	NYJ	2000	8.0	9	1.0
193	DET	2000	8.0	9	1.0
194	OAK	2015	6.1	7	0.9
195	DET	2007	6.1	7	0.9
196	CLE	2001	6.1	7	0.9
197	ARI	2001	6.1	7	0.9
198	PIT	2015	9.1	10	0.9
199	GNB	2010	9.1	10	0.9
200	PHI	2010	9.1	10	0.9
201	NWE	2009	9.1	10	0.9
202	TAM	2000	9.1	10	0.9
203	ATL	2015	7.2	8	0.8
204	NYJ	2013	7.2	8	0.8
205	DAL	2011	7.2	8	0.8
206	MIN	2007	7.2	8	0.8
207	HOU	2007	7.2	8	0.8
208	STL	2006	7.2	8	0.8
209	KAN	2002	7.2	8	0.8
210	SDG	2007	10.2	11	0.8
211	HOU	2015	8.4	9	0.6
212	SDG	2014	8.4	9	0.6
213	NYG	2012	8.4	9	0.6
214	NYJ	2009	8.4	9	0.6
215	TAM	2008	8.4	9	0.6
216	DAL	2006	8.4	9	0.6
217	PIT	2002	9.9	10.5	0.6
218	CLE	2014	6.5	7	0.5
219	DET	2013	6.5	7	0.5
220	TAM	2012	6.5	7	0.5
221	SFO	2006	6.5	7	0.5
222	CHI	2003	6.5	7	0.5
223	ATL	2001	6.5	7	0.5
224	SEA	2015	9.5	10	0.5
225	GNB	2015	9.5	10	0.5
226	BAL	2012	9.5	10	0.5
227	GNB	2003	9.5	10	0.5
228	SFO	2002	9.5	10	0.5
229	OAK	2001	9.5	10	0.5
230	BAL	2001	9.5	10	0.5
231	MIA	2013	7.6	8	0.4
232	JAX	2010	7.6	8	0.4
233	SFO	2009	7.6	8	0.4
234	NOR	2008	7.6	8	0.4
235	DEN	2008	7.6	8	0.4
236	GNB	2012	10.6	11	0.4
237	PIT	2005	10.6	11	0.4
238	TAM	2015	5.7	6	0.3
239	CAR	2011	5.7	6	0.3
240	DET	2010	5.7	6	0.3
241	HOU	2006	5.7	6	0.3
242	NYG	2011	8.7	9	0.3
243	KAN	2006	8.7	9	0.3
244	BAL	2004	8.7	9	0.3
245	SEA	2004	8.7	9	0.3
246	NYJ	2002	8.7	9	0.3
247	TAM	2001	8.7	9	0.3
248	SEA	2010	6.9	7	0.1
249	JAX	2009	6.9	7	0.1
250	SFO	2008	6.9	7	0.1
251	BUF	2006	6.9	7	0.1
252	HOU	2004	6.9	7	0.1
253	ATL	2011	9.9	10	0.1
254	IND	2000	9.9	10	0.1
255	STL	2000	9.9	10	0.1
256	MIA	2014	8.0	8	0.0
257	PIT	2013	8.0	8	0.0
258	DAL	2013	8.0	8	0.0
259	DAL	2012	8.0	8	0.0
260	OAK	2011	8.0	8	0.0
261	DEN	2009	8.0	8	0.0
262	HOU	2008	8.0	8	0.0
263	CIN	2004	8.0	8	0.0
264	NOR	2004	8.0	8	0.0
265	WAS	2001	8.0	8	0.0
266	NWE	2008	11.0	11	0.0
268	MIN	2014	7.0	7	0.0
269	KAN	2014	9.1	9	-0.1
270	BAL	2009	9.1	9	-0.1
271	ATL	2009	9.1	9	-0.1
272	MIA	2002	9.1	9	-0.1
273	NWE	2002	9.1	9	-0.1
274	STL	2015	7.2	7	-0.2
275	TEN	2013	7.2	7	-0.2
276	CAR	2012	7.2	7	-0.2
277	MIA	2012	7.2	7	-0.2
278	IND	2010	10.2	10	-0.2
279	NWE	2005	10.2	10	-0.2
280	SDG	2001	5.4	5	-0.4
281	BUF	2015	8.4	8	-0.4
282	SDG	2011	8.4	8	-0.4
283	WAS	2008	8.4	8	-0.4
284	MIN	2004	8.4	8	-0.4
285	NOR	2003	8.4	8	-0.4
286	ATL	2014	6.5	6	-0.5
287	BUF	2011	6.5	6	-0.5
288	WAS	2010	6.5	6	-0.5
289	CLE	2005	6.5	6	-0.5
290	ARI	2004	6.5	6	-0.5
291	NYG	2004	6.5	6	-0.5
292	CIN	2001	6.5	6	-0.5
293	SFO	2000	6.5	6	-0.5
294	PIT	2009	9.5	9	-0.5
295	SDG	2005	9.5	9	-0.5
296	NOR	2015	7.6	7	-0.6
297	SEA	2011	7.6	7	-0.6
298	MIA	2010	7.6	7	-0.6
299	BUF	2008	7.6	7	-0.6
300	BUF	2007	7.6	7	-0.6
301	GNB	2013	9.1	8.5	-0.6
302	CHI	2013	8.7	8	-0.7
303	BAL	2013	8.7	8	-0.7
304	PHI	2011	8.7	8	-0.7
305	PHI	2007	8.7	8	-0.7
306	WAS	2000	8.7	8	-0.7
307	STL	2013	7.8	7	-0.8
308	CHI	2015	6.9	6	-0.9
309	WAS	2004	6.9	6	-0.9
310	DET	2004	6.9	6	-0.9
311	MIN	2002	6.9	6	-0.9
312	SDG	2010	9.9	9	-0.9
313	DAL	2008	9.9	9	-0.9
314	DEN	2006	9.9	9	-0.9
315	SEA	2006	9.9	9	-0.9
316	SDG	2012	8.0	7	-1.0
317	CIN	2007	8.0	7	-1.0
318	CAR	2007	8.0	7	-1.0
319	ATL	2006	8.0	7	-1.0
320	WAS	2002	8.0	7	-1.0
321	CAR	2000	8.0	7	-1.0
322	JAX	2015	6.1	5	-1.1
323	DET	2003	6.1	5	-1.1
324	IND	2015	9.1	8	-1.1
325	NYJ	2011	9.1	8	-1.1
326	CHI	2011	9.1	8	-1.1
327	SDG	2008	9.1	8	-1.1
328	CIN	2006	9.1	8	-1.1
329	PIT	2006	9.1	8	-1.1
330	NYG	2006	9.1	8	-1.1
331	CAR	2006	9.1	8	-1.1
332	ATL	2005	9.1	8	-1.1
333	DEN	2001	9.1	8	-1.1
334	BUF	2000	9.1	8	-1.1
335	NYG	2015	7.2	6	-1.2
336	BUF	2013	7.2	6	-1.2
337	BUF	2012	7.2	6	-1.2
338	JAX	2002	7.2	6	-1.2
339	NYG	2013	8.4	7	-1.4
340	CHI	2009	8.4	7	-1.4
341	DEN	2007	8.4	7	-1.4
342	SEA	2002	8.4	7	-1.4
343	KAN	2000	8.4	7	-1.4
344	CLE	2012	6.5	5	-1.5
345	SEA	2009	6.5	5	-1.5
346	CLE	2009	6.5	5	-1.5
347	OAK	2008	6.5	5	-1.5
348	OAK	2004	6.5	5	-1.5
349	HOU	2003	6.5	5	-1.5
350	SFO	2014	9.5	8	-1.5
351	PIT	2012	9.5	8	-1.5
352	CAR	2009	9.5	8	-1.5
353	NYG	2009	9.5	8	-1.5
354	JAX	2006	9.5	8	-1.5
355	STL	2004	9.5	8	-1.5
356	NYG	2014	7.6	6	-1.6
357	STL	2014	7.6	6	-1.6
358	MIA	2011	7.6	6	-1.6
359	BUF	2009	7.6	6	-1.6
360	JAX	2001	7.6	6	-1.6
361	KAN	2001	7.6	6	-1.6
362	JAX	2013	5.7	4	-1.7
363	KAN	2009	5.7	4	-1.7
364	OAK	2007	5.7	4	-1.7
365	SFO	2005	5.7	4	-1.7
366	PHI	2015	8.7	7	-1.7
367	KAN	2011	8.7	7	-1.7
368	NOR	2007	8.7	7	-1.7
369	SFO	2003	8.7	7	-1.7
370	BAL	2002	8.7	7	-1.7
371	NOR	2001	8.7	7	-1.7
372	CLE	2010	6.9	5	-1.9
373	OAK	2009	6.9	5	-1.9
374	ARI	2006	6.9	5	-1.9
375	DAL	2002	6.9	5	-1.9
376	DAL	2001	6.9	5	-1.9
377	TEN	2009	9.9	8	-1.9
378	MIA	2015	8.0	6	-2.0
379	NYJ	2012	8.0	6	-2.0
380	TEN	2010	8.0	6	-2.0
381	SFO	2010	8.0	6	-2.0
382	STL	2005	8.0	6	-2.0
383	BUF	2003	8.0	6	-2.0
384	CAR	2014	9.5	7.5	-2.0
385	WAS	2014	6.1	4	-2.1
386	DET	2015	9.1	7	-2.1
387	NOR	2014	9.1	7	-2.1
388	MIA	2009	9.1	7	-2.1
389	CAR	2004	9.1	7	-2.1
390	WAS	2011	7.2	5	-2.2
391	ARI	2005	7.2	5	-2.2
392	DET	2005	7.2	5	-2.2
393	JAX	2003	7.2	5	-2.2
394	CHI	2000	7.2	5	-2.2
395	TEN	2012	8.4	6	-2.4
396	HOU	2010	8.4	6	-2.4
397	MIA	2006	8.4	6	-2.4
398	MIN	2006	8.4	6	-2.4
399	BAL	2005	8.4	6	-2.4
400	NYJ	2003	8.4	6	-2.4
401	SEA	2000	8.4	6	-2.4
402	OAK	2013	6.5	4	-2.5
403	CIN	2000	6.5	4	-2.5
404	TAM	2003	9.5	7	-2.5
405	NYG	2001	9.5	7	-2.5
406	SFO	2007	7.6	5	-2.6
407	TAM	2004	7.6	5	-2.6
408	CHI	2004	7.6	5	-2.6
409	WAS	2003	7.6	5	-2.6
410	ARI	2002	7.6	5	-2.6
411	TEN	2015	5.7	3	-2.7
412	DET	2002	5.7	3	-2.7
413	CLE	2000	5.7	3	-2.7
414	DAL	2004	8.7	6	-2.7
415	IND	2001	8.7	6	-2.7
416	CLE	2013	6.9	4	-2.9
417	CLE	2011	6.9	4	-2.9
418	OAK	2005	6.9	4	-2.9
419	TEN	2005	6.9	4	-2.9
420	CLE	2004	6.9	4	-2.9
421	ARI	2003	6.9	4	-2.9
422	ATL	2000	6.9	4	-2.9
423	NOR	2012	9.9	7	-2.9
424	CHI	2007	9.9	7	-2.9
425	KAN	2004	9.9	7	-2.9
426	TEN	2001	9.9	7	-2.9
427	PIT	2003	8.9	6	-2.9
428	DET	2009	5.0	2	-3.0
429	SFO	2015	8.0	5	-3.0
430	CHI	2014	8.0	5	-3.0
431	ARI	2012	8.0	5	-3.0
432	JAX	2011	8.0	5	-3.0
433	NWE	2000	8.0	5	-3.0
434	DAL	2000	8.0	5	-3.0
435	CIN	2008	7.6	4.5	-3.1
436	DAL	2010	9.1	6	-3.1
437	BUF	2010	7.2	4	-3.2
438	CLE	2006	7.2	4	-3.2
439	MIN	2013	8.7	5.5	-3.2
440	STL	2002	10.2	7	-3.2
441	JAX	2000	10.2	7	-3.2
442	BUF	2005	8.4	5	-3.4
443	CLE	2003	8.4	5	-3.4
444	JAX	2014	6.5	3	-3.5
445	OAK	2014	6.5	3	-3.5
446	MIN	2010	9.5	6	-3.5
447	ATL	2003	8.6	5	-3.6
448	TAM	2013	7.6	4	-3.6
449	ATL	2007	7.6	4	-3.6
450	BAL	2015	8.7	5	-3.7
451	ARI	2010	8.7	5	-3.7
452	WAS	2006	8.7	5	-3.7
453	DET	2006	6.9	3	-3.9
454	GNB	2008	9.9	6	-3.9
455	PHI	2005	9.9	6	-3.9
456	NYJ	2014	8.0	4	-4.0
457	OAK	2012	8.0	4	-4.0
458	PHI	2012	8.0	4	-4.0
459	DEN	2010	8.0	4	-4.0
460	WAS	2009	8.0	4	-4.0
461	SDG	2003	8.0	4	-4.0
462	STL	2008	6.1	2	-4.1
463	JAX	2008	9.1	5	-4.1
464	MIN	2001	9.1	5	-4.1
465	MIN	2011	7.2	3	-4.2
466	ARI	2000	7.2	3	-4.2
467	SDG	2015	8.4	4	-4.4
468	KAN	2007	8.4	4	-4.4
469	TAM	2014	6.5	2	-4.5
470	KAN	2008	6.5	2	-4.5
471	OAK	2006	6.5	2	-4.5
472	TEN	2004	9.5	5	-4.5
473	CLE	2015	7.6	3	-4.6
474	STL	2009	5.7	1	-4.7
475	DET	2012	8.7	4	-4.7
476	TAM	2011	8.7	4	-4.7
477	CIN	2010	8.7	4	-4.7
478	SEA	2008	8.7	4	-4.7
479	CLE	2008	8.7	4	-4.7
480	NYJ	2007	8.7	4	-4.7
481	GNB	2005	8.7	4	-4.7
482	NYJ	2005	8.7	4	-4.7
483	MIA	2004	8.7	4	-4.7
484	NYG	2003	8.7	4	-4.7
485	JAX	2012	6.9	2	-4.9
486	BAL	2007	9.9	5	-4.9
487	STL	2007	8.0	3	-5.0
488	NOR	2005	8.0	3	-5.0
489	BUF	2001	8.0	3	-5.0
490	TAM	2006	9.1	4	-5.1
491	OAK	2003	9.1	4	-5.1
492	CIN	2002	7.2	2	-5.2
493	TAM	2009	8.4	3	-5.4
494	DAL	2015	9.5	4	-5.5
495	TEN	2014	7.6	2	-5.6
496	KAN	2012	7.6	2	-5.6
497	STL	2011	7.6	2	-5.6
498	HOU	2005	7.6	2	-5.6
499	SFO	2004	7.6	2	-5.6
500	WAS	2013	8.7	3	-5.7
501	ATL	2013	9.9	4	-5.9
502	CHI	2002	9.9	4	-5.9
503	CAR	2010	8.0	2	-6.0
504	MIA	2007	7.2	1	-6.2
505	DET	2001	8.4	2	-6.4
506	CAR	2001	7.6	1	-6.6
507	IND	2011	8.7	2	-6.7
508	SDG	2000	8.0	1	-7.0
509	HOU	2013	9.5	2	-7.5
510	DET	2008	7.6	0	-7.6

Unsurprisingly, the 2008 Lions are at the bottom of the list. Going 0-16 doesn’t help matters, but even at 1-15 the Lions still would have ranked in the bottom five. That’s because Detroit was pretty decent in 2007, and was projected for 7.6 wins in 2008. The 2013 Houston Texans had one of the biggest collapses in recent memory, falling from 12-4 to 2-14; they rank as the second biggest disappointing team since 2000.

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