The 2017 Eagles won the Super Bowl, but the 2016 Eagles were just 7-9. That is pretty misleading: the 2016 Eagles had the best DVOA of any team in the last 30 years with a losing record, so in some ways, the ’17 season wasn’t a big surprise.
On the other hand, well, the Eagles became just the 4th team to go from a losing record to Super Bowl champion in one season. The other three teams were much worse in the prior year than the 2017 Eagles, but you can probably guess them: the 2001 Patriots, 1999 Rams, and 1981 49ers.
On average, Super Bowl champions win 12.7 games the year they win the Super Bowl (with non-16 game seasons pro-rated to 16 games), 10.9 games the year before, 9.7 the year before that, 9.5 three years before, and 9.2 four years before. The table below shows the number of wins in Year N (the Super Bowl year) for each Super Bowl champion, along with their number of wins in the prior four years. The final column shows the average of wins in Years N-1, N-2, N-3, and N-4. Note that all non-16 game seasons have been pro-rated.
| Team | Year | Yr N Wins | N-1 | N-2 | N-3 | N-4 | Average (Prior 4) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2017 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8.5 |
| New England Patriots | 2016 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Denver Broncos | 2015 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 11.5 |
| New England Patriots | 2014 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 2013 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 7.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2012 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| New York Giants | 2011 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Green Bay Packers | 2010 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 9.5 |
| New Orleans Saints | 2009 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2008 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 11 |
| New York Giants | 2007 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 7.3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2006 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2005 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 10.5 | 13 | 11.1 |
| New England Patriots | 2004 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9.8 |
| New England Patriots | 2003 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 8.3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2002 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 9.5 |
| New England Patriots | 2001 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2000 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 6.5 | 4 | 6.1 |
| St. Louis Rams | 1999 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5.5 |
| Denver Broncos | 1998 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| Denver Broncos | 1997 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9.3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1996 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1995 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1994 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 12 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1993 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 8 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1992 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5.5 |
| Washington Redskins | 1991 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 11.7 | 9.7 |
| New York Giants | 1990 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6.4 | 14 | 10.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1989 | 14 | 10 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 10 | 11.1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1988 | 10 | 13.9 | 10.5 | 10 | 15 | 12.3 |
| Washington Redskins | 1987 | 11.7 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 11.8 |
| New York Giants | 1986 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| Chicago Bears | 1985 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5.3 | 6 | 7.3 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1984 | 15 | 10 | 5.3 | 13 | 6 | 8.6 |
| Los Angeles Raiders | 1983 | 12 | 14.2 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 10.3 |
| Washington Redskins | 1982 | 14.2 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1981 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5.7 | 3.9 |
| Oakland Raiders | 1980 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 12.6 | 14.9 | 11.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1979 | 12 | 14 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 12.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1978 | 14 | 10.3 | 11.4 | 13.7 | 12 | 11.9 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1977 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 11.1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 1976 | 14.9 | 12.6 | 13.7 | 10.9 | 12 | 12.3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1975 | 13.7 | 12 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 10.7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1974 | 12 | 11.4 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 9.1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1973 | 13.7 | 16 | 12 | 11.4 | 4 | 10.9 |
| Miami Dolphins | 1972 | 16 | 12 | 11.4 | 4 | 6.3 | 8.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 1971 | 12.6 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| Baltimore Colts | 1970 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 14.9 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 1969 | 12.6 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 9.1 | 11.6 |
| New York Jets | 1968 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 8 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 7.6 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1967 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 12 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 12.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1966 | 13.7 | 12 | 9.7 | 13.1 | 14.9 | 12.4 |
| Average | 12.7 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 9.8 |
If you sort by the final column, the ’81 49ers, ’92 Cowboys, ’99 Rams, and ’00 Ravens come off as the biggest surprises. All but the ’92 Cowboys were mediocre or worse the year before winning it all, too. The Eagles, though, are a pretty notable outlier when it comes to N-1 results. But this is probably a good example of why record isn’t all that matters. The 2016 Eagles handed the Falcons and Steelers (the last two teams the Patriots beat to win the Super Bowl) their worst two losses of the season, and were much better than their record.