Super Bowl Champions, by Draft Value

by Chase Stuart on March 22, 2017

The New England Patriots won Super Bowl LI, but it wasn’t because the team was packed full of high draft picks. Of the five Patriots who had more than 10 points of AV, only one was drafted in the first four rounds. Regular readers know that I created an AV-based draft value chart, which assigns points to each draft pick based on the expected marginal production produced by that pick.

Well, you can calculate a team’s weighted average draft value by doing the following:

Calculate the draft value spent on each player on the roster who produced at least 1 point of AV that season.
Calculate the percentage of team AV produced by each player. This is key, otherwise Chris Long would skew the results in the wrong direction.
Multiply the results in steps 1 and 2, and then sum those values.

Here’s how it would work with the 2016 Patriots, who had an average draft value (as a roster, and weighted by AV) of 6.72.

Player	Pos	AV	Perc of TmAV%	Draft Pk	Draft Val	Wt Draft Val
Dont'a Hightower	ILB	14	5.4%	25	14.1	0.76
Malcolm Butler	CB	13	5%	udfa	0	0.00
Tom Brady	QB	13	5%	199	0.9	0.05
Marcus Cannon	OL	13	5%	138	3.2	0.16
Julian Edelman	WR	11	4.2%	232	0	0.00
Devin McCourty	DB	10	3.8%	27	13.6	0.52
Nate Solder	T	10	3.8%	17	16.6	0.64
Alan Branch	DT	9	3.5%	33	12.3	0.43
LeGarrette Blount	RB	8	3.1%	udfa	0	0.00
David Andrews	C	8	3.1%	udfa	0	0.00
Shaq Mason	C	8	3.1%	131	3.6	0.11
Joe Thuney	OG	8	3.1%	78	6.9	0.21
Malcom Brown	DT	8	3.1%	32	12.5	0.38
Chris Hogan	WR	7	2.7%	udfa	0	0.00
James White	RB	7	2.7%	130	3.6	0.10
Trey Flowers	DE	7	2.7%	101	5.2	0.14
Martellus Bennett	TE	7	2.7%	61	8.4	0.23
Rob Ninkovich	DE	6	2.3%	135	3.4	0.08
Jabaal Sheard	DL	6	2.3%	37	11.6	0.27
Patrick Chung	DB	6	2.3%	34	12.1	0.28
Chris Long	DE	6	2.3%	2	30.2	0.70
Nate Ebner	DB	5	1.9%	197	1	0.02
Logan Ryan	CB	5	1.9%	83	6.5	0.13
Jamie Collins	OLB	5	1.9%	52	9.4	0.18
Rob Gronkowski	TE	5	1.9%	42	10.8	0.21
Elandon Roberts	ILB	4	1.5%	214	0.4	0.01
Cameron Fleming	OT	4	1.5%	140	3.1	0.05
Malcolm Mitchell	WR	4	1.5%	112	4.6	0.07
Shea McClellin	DE	4	1.5%	19	15.8	0.24
Dion Lewis	RB	3	1.2%	149	2.7	0.03
Stephen Gostkowski	K	3	1.2%	118	4.2	0.05
Vincent Valentine	DT	3	1.2%	96	5.5	0.06
Eric Rowe	CB	3	1.2%	47	10.1	0.12
Danny Amendola	WR	2	0.8%	udfa	0	0.00
Jonathan Freeny	DE	2	0.8%	udfa	0	0.00
Ryan Allen	P	2	0.8%	udfa	0	0.00
Ted Karras	OG	2	0.8%	221	0.2	0.00
Duron Harmon	FS	2	0.8%	91	5.9	0.05
Jacoby Brissett	QB	2	0.8%	91	5.9	0.05
Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	2	0.8%	62	8.3	0.06
Kyle Van Noy	OLB	2	0.8%	40	11.1	0.09
Barkevious Mingo	OLB	2	0.8%	6	23.2	0.18
Jonathan Jones	DB	1	0.4%	udfa	0	0.00
Anthony Johnson	DT	1	0.4%	udfa	0	0.00
Justin Coleman	CB	1	0.4%	udfa	0	0.00
Brandon King	DB	1	0.4%	udfa	0	0.00
Woodrow Hamilton	DL	1	0.4%	udfa	0	0.00
Joe Cardona	LS	1	0.4%	166	2	0.01
Geneo Grissom	OLB	1	0.4%	97	5.5	0.02
Jordan Richards	SS	1	0.4%	64	8.1	0.03
Cyrus Jones	CB	1	0.4%	60	8.5	0.03
Total		260	100%			6.72

As it turns out, 6.72 — which is roughly equivalent to the 79th pick in the draft — is really low for a Super Bowl champion, although not for the Patriots. The ’03 Patriots were a little different, but the other four New England teams that won the Super Bowl all rank 40th or lower among the 51 Super Bowl champions in terms of average draft value. The 2016 edition was the lowest ranked of the group, ahead of just three other Super Bowl champions.

Rk	Team	Year	Draft Val	Pick Eq
1	Kansas City Chiefs	1969	14.1	25
2	St. Louis Rams	1999	12.8	30
3	Green Bay Packers	1967	11.8	36
4	Dallas Cowboys	1993	11.8	36
5	Baltimore Colts	1970	11.6	37
6	Dallas Cowboys	1992	11.4	38
7	Chicago Bears	1985	11.2	40
8	Baltimore Ravens	2000	11.1	40
9	Green Bay Packers	1966	10.5	44
10	Dallas Cowboys	1995	10.5	44
11	New York Giants	1990	10.4	44
12	Oakland Raiders	1980	10.3	45
13	San Francisco 49ers	1994	10.3	45
14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2002	10.3	46
15	Dallas Cowboys	1971	10.1	47
16	Denver Broncos	1997	9.4	52
17	New York Giants	2011	9.2	53
18	Los Angeles Raiders	1983	9.2	54
19	Pittsburgh Steelers	1978	9.1	55
20	New England Patriots	2003	9.0	56
21	Indianapolis Colts	2006	9.0	56
22	Oakland Raiders	1976	9.0	56
23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1979	8.9	57
24	Pittsburgh Steelers	2005	8.8	57
25	Green Bay Packers	2010	8.8	57
26	Pittsburgh Steelers	1975	8.7	57
27	San Francisco 49ers	1981	8.7	58
28	Dallas Cowboys	1977	8.7	58
29	San Francisco 49ers	1989	8.6	59
30	New York Giants	2007	8.6	59
31	San Francisco 49ers	1984	8.5	60
32	San Francisco 49ers	1988	8.5	60
33	Denver Broncos	2015	8.4	61
34	Green Bay Packers	1996	8.4	61
35	Pittsburgh Steelers	1974	8.0	65
36	New York Giants	1986	8.0	65
37	New Orleans Saints	2009	7.7	68
38	Washington Redskins	1991	7.7	68
39	Miami Dolphins	1972	7.7	68
40	New England Patriots	2001	7.6	69
41	Baltimore Ravens	2012	7.4	72
42	New York Jets	1968	7.3	73
43	Pittsburgh Steelers	2008	7.2	74
44	Miami Dolphins	1973	7.1	75
45	New England Patriots	2014	6.8	79
46	New England Patriots	2004	6.8	79
47	Denver Broncos	1998	6.7	80
48	New England Patriots	2016	6.7	80
49	Seattle Seahawks	2013	6.1	88
50	Washington Redskins	1982	6.1	88
51	Washington Redskins	1987	5.7	93

The ’87 Skins were a little weird, because they have replacement players mixed in with AV. There was a strike in ’82, of course, too, but no replacement players were used that year, so those values are truly representative of the team that won it all. The only other team below New England was the ’13 Seahawks, who also found some late round draft picks that turned into stars.

{ 0 comments }