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2016 Team AV and Draft Value

Last year, I looked at each team’s “average” draft value, with average being defined as the AV-weighted average of the team’s roster. And yesterday, I did the same thing for every Super Bowl champion. Today, we look at the draft value for each team in 2016.

One thing that’s interesting, if not surprising: there’s not a ton of turnover from year to year in this stat. The top five teams in this metric last year were also the top five teams this year, although the order switched around notably. The Falcons were fifth last season, but were first this year, and would have been in the top 10 among all Super Bowl champions had they won. That’s what happens when Matt Ryan (3rd overall), Julio Jones (6th), Alex Mack (21st), Jake Mathews (6th), and Vic Beasley (8th) were the team leaders in AV.

The table below shows all teams in 2016:

RkTeamYearDraft ValPick Eq
1Atlanta Falcons201611.140
2Kansas City Chiefs201610.544
3Arizona Cardinals201610.246
4Los Angeles Rams20169.849
5Carolina Panthers20169.849
6Tampa Bay Buccaneers20169.353
7Oakland Raiders20169.254
8Philadelphia Eagles20169.254
9Houston Texans20169.254
10Detroit Lions20169.155
11Miami Dolphins20168.858
12Tennessee Titans20168.858
13New York Giants20168.758
14Minnesota Vikings20168.758
15Dallas Cowboys20168.560
16Cincinnati Bengals20168.461
17Denver Broncos20168.362
18New York Jets20168.362
19Jacksonville Jaguars20168.263
20San Diego Chargers20168.263
21Cleveland Browns20167.866
22Washington Redskins20167.867
23Green Bay Packers20167.768
24Pittsburgh Steelers20167.669
25Indianapolis Colts20167.571
26New Orleans Saints20167.274
27Buffalo Bills20167.076
28Baltimore Ravens20167.076
29New England Patriots20166.780
30San Francisco 49ers20166.583
31Chicago Bears20164.4114
32Seattle Seahawks20164.3116

The Seahawks and Bears stand out as being far removed from the rest of the league, although both teams were in the bottom six last year, too (and Seattle was 32nd). In fact, five of the bottom 6 teams in this metric last year ranked in the bottom six this year. The Colts barely jumped out of the bottom six, from 28th to 25th in 2016, while the big mover was the Bills, who dropped from 12th in 2015 to 27th last season. Some of the reasons: no Mario Williams or Manny Lawson in 2016, significantly less-valuable seasons last season from Sammy Watkins, Eric Wood, and Marcell Dareus, while undrafted Lorenzo Alexander was in Oakland in 2015 and tied for third in AV for the Bills in 2016.

What do you think?

  • Before looking at the list I suspected the Seahawks would be last. One of the amazing things about their recent run of success under Carroll/Schneider is how much it’s been built on mid- to late round draft picks and undrafted free agents. They’ve either traded away their 1st round picks or not resigned them once they got too expensive (notable exception: Earl Thomas).

    If you look at the players they acquired outside the first round from 2010-2012 it’s ridiculous. Unfortunately their success rate has been much, much lower since then leading Seahawks fans to wonder if it was more luck than genius. But they do have some promising young non-first-rounders on the roster like Clark, Reed, Prosise, Lockett, so we shall see.