This is a starting NFL quarterback in an NFL uniform. Welcome to 2012.
Last year, Cam Newton and Andy Dalton were opening day starters, and their success (along with the success of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan) have undoubtedly made teams become more willing to start rookie quarterbacks. In fact, the youth movement goes beyond just this year’s class: in addition to Newton and Dalton, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and Blaine Gabbert will be second-year quarterbacks starting in week one this season. That’s another record, breaking the seven such quarterbacks in 2000. Remember 1999, the Year of the Quarterback in the NFL Draft? Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, and Daunte Culpepper were all high first-round draft picks, and all were sophomore starters in 2000. Shaun King, fresh off a strong late-season run for Tampa Bay, joined the group in week 1 of the 2000, as did Jeff Garcia in San Francisco.
What’s the explanation? Luck, Griffin, and Newton were uber elite talents who were too good to sit. Wilson legitimately won the Seahawks job in training camp and preseason, a rare event in any era for a rookie quarterback. But the rest of the group — Weeden, Tannehill, Dalton, Gabbert, Ponder, and Locker — seem to signal a shift in NFL philosophy. The table below lists all quarterbacks drafted in the top 40 — but not in the top 5 — since 1970, and the first year in their career when they started for their team in week one:
Year | Tm | QB | 1stWk1Start | Experience |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | TEN | Jake Locker | 2012 | 2 |
| 2011 | JAX | Blaine Gabbert | 2012 | 2 |
| 2011 | MIN | Christian Ponder | 2012 | 2 |
| 2011 | CIN | Andy Dalton | 2011 | 1 |
| 2011 | SFO | Colin Kaepernick | -- | n/a |
| 2010 | DEN | Tim Tebow | -- | n/a |
| 2009 | TAM | Josh Freeman | 2010 | 2 |
| 2008 | BAL | Joe Flacco | 2008 | 1 |
| 2007 | CLE | Brady Quinn | 2009 | 3 |
| 2007 | PHI | Kevin Kolb | 2010 | 4 |
| 2007 | MIA | John Beck | -- | n/a |
| 2006 | ARI | Matt Leinart | 2007 | 2 |
| 2006 | DEN | Jay Cutler | 2007 | 2 |
| 2005 | GNB | Aaron Rodgers | 2008 | 4 |
| 2005 | WAS | Jason Campbell | 2007 | 3 |
| 2004 | PIT | Ben Roethlisberger | 2005 | 2 |
| 2004 | BUF | J.P. Losman | 2005 | 2 |
| 2003 | JAX | Byron Leftwich | 2004 | 2 |
| 2003 | BAL | Kyle Boller | 2003 | 1 |
| 2003 | CHI | Rex Grossman | 2004 | 2 |
| 2002 | WAS | Patrick Ramsey | 2003 | 2 |
| 2001 | SDG | Drew Brees | 2002 | 2 |
| 2000 | NYJ | Chad Pennington | 2004 | 5 |
| 1999 | MIN | Daunte Culpepper | 2000 | 2 |
| 1999 | CHI | Cade McNown | 2000 | 2 |
| 1997 | SFO | Jim Druckenmiller | -- | n/a |
| 1994 | TAM | Trent Dilfer | 1995 | 2 |
| 1992 | CIN | David Klingler | 1993 | 2 |
| 1992 | DEN | Tommy Maddox | 2003 | 12 |
| 1992 | KAN | Matt Blundin | -- | n/a |
| 1991 | SEA | Dan McGwire | -- | n/a |
| 1991 | RAI | Todd Marinovich | -- | n/a |
| 1991 | ATL | Brett Favre | 1993 | 3 |
| 1991 | NYJ | Browning Nagle | 1992 | 2 |
| 1990 | DET | Andre Ware | -- | n/a |
| 1989 | KAN | Mike Elkins | -- | n/a |
| 1987 | STL | Kelly Stouffer | 1992 | 6 |
| 1987 | ATL | Chris Miller | 1988 | 2 |
| 1987 | CHI | Jim Harbaugh | 1990 | 4 |
| 1986 | DET | Chuck Long | 1987 | 2 |
| 1985 | PHI | Randall Cunningham | 1987 | 3 |
| 1984 | CIN | Boomer Esiason | 1986 | 3 |
| 1983 | KAN | Todd Blackledge | 1984 | 2 |
| 1983 | BUF | Jim Kelly | 1986 | 4 |
| 1983 | NWE | Tony Eason | 1985 | 3 |
| 1983 | NYJ | Ken O'Brien | 1985 | 3 |
| 1983 | MIA | Dan Marino | 1984 | 2 |
| 1981 | GNB | Rich Campbell | -- | n/a |
| 1981 | STL | Neil Lomax | 1982 | 2 |
| 1980 | OAK | Marc Wilson | 1986 | 7 |
| 1980 | PIT | Mark Malone | 1985 | 6 |
| 1980 | BUF | Gene Bradley | -- | n/a |
| 1979 | NYG | Phil Simms | 1980 | 2 |
| 1979 | KAN | Steve Fuller | 1980 | 2 |
| 1978 | TAM | Doug Williams | 1978 | 1 |
| 1977 | STL | Steve Pisarkiewicz | -- | n/a |
| 1977 | MIN | Tommy Kramer | 1979 | 3 |
| 1976 | NYJ | Richard Todd | 1977 | 2 |
| 1973 | CHI | Gary Huff | 1974 | 2 |
| 1973 | RAM | Ron Jaworski | 1976 | 4 |
| 1972 | GNB | Jerry Tagge | 1974 | 3 |
| 1972 | PHI | John Reaves | 1978 | 7 |
| 1972 | ATL | Pat Sullivan | -- | n/a |
| 1970 | BUF | Dennis Shaw | 1971 | 2 |
There seem to be several factors at play that have made teams get younger at quarterback. One reason is that the younger levels of football have become significantly better at developing quarterbacks and making them ready for the pro game sooner than ever. Subjectively, it feels like teams are drafting for need more now than ever; as a result, the best quarterbacks tend to end up on the teams most likely to start one right away. And as NFL teams feel more pressure to win right away — or at least give their fans a glimmer of hope — injecting a young quarterback is a surefire way to earn goodwill and increase the length of one’s leash.
With Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Logan Thomas, Landry Jones, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray and Geno Smith as possible early drafts pick in 2013, NFL general managers will have no shortage of options if they want to go young at quarterback next season. Or maybe this is just an odd blip on the radar screen.
What do you think? Why are we seeing so many young quarterbacks starting in 2012, whereas for most of NFL history young quarterbacks were rarely asked to start?
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Another reason we’re seeing for some of the younger starting QBs is that teams want to develop them. Miami, Tennessee and Cleveland (and possibly Washington and Seattle) know they won’t be that good this year, so they’re throwing young starting QBs in to get them some experience and prepare for when they (hopefully) will be contenders, regardless of whether or no they are the best QB on the roster. Added to the other factors, it’s the move that makes the most sense for several teams: prepare them for the future now. If they can get the rookie mistakes behind them now while your team is bad, they won’t submarine you when you finally get better.
I think there are two main factors.
1) More college teams are running pro-style and/or pass-oriented offenses than were doing so 10+ years ago. So perhaps there are just more QB’s that coaches feel are ready to start from day 1.
2) I think due to recent success of guys like Flacco and Ryan, if teams don’t have an obvious good starter with upside, they figure they would just rather go with the rookie.
I guess I thought of a 3rd thing. It might be a chicken-or-egg type of situation. Is it possible that teams are realizing that in order to compete in the NFL these days, they MUST have a good passing game. So if a team has known mediocre QB options (Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Moore, Rex Grossman, etc.), they figure they won’t be able to compete. So they go with the rookie, because it’s possible the rookie will be able to meet the passing needs. Or – has the NFL become a critical passing league BECAUSE more and more young QBs are given the reins?
{ 1 trackback }