Nine days ago, I looked at the leaders in passing value, measured as the difference between each quarterback’s ANY/A average and league average, multiplied by such passer’s number of dropbacks. This is the conventional method I have used to measure passing value, but that doesn’t make it the best.

Over the summer, Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics fame, helped me determine the value of first down. His research concluded that a first down was worth about 9 marginal yards. I was short on time, so I didn’t have the chance to incorporate that into my formula last week. But I will rectify that today.

In addition, I will provide -30 yards for each “net fumble” — defined as fumbles minus fumbles recovered. And since last week I calculated the numbers relative to average, this time around I will compare player production to replacement value, defined as 80% of league average. ^[1]Customarily, I use 75%, but I think with the first down bonus, 80% makes more sense here.

Let’s use Aaron Rodgers as an example. The Packers star has thrown 458 times for 3,837 yards, 35 touchdowns (+700), with 5 interceptions (-225), 9 fumbles, and 5 fumble recoveries (-120). He has also been sacked 27 times and lost 166 yards on those plays. Finally, Rodgers has picked up 188 first downs (+1692), which means he has a total of 5,718 adjusted net yards. Over his 485 dropbacks, that gives him an average of 11.79 “ANY/A”, while the league average is 8.91. That means Rodgers has produced 1,397 yards of value over average, and 2,261 yards of value over replacement.

• This year, quarterbacks have thrown for a first down on 35.2% of pass attempts (excluding sacks). Perhaps the quarterback who has been the most impressive this year when it comes to picking up first downs is…. Tony Romo? Yes, DeMarco Murray has taken the headlines, but Romo has thrown for a first down on an incredibble 42.5% of his pass attempts this year, the most of any full-time passer. On average, his first downs have come with the Cowboys needing to gain 7.35 yards; that’s slightly above average, and it’s reasonable to conclude that he’s been helped by Murray putting Dallas in favorable down and distances (and limiting his first down pass attempts).

• Rodgers is your likely MVP this year, and for good reason. Not only does he easily lead all quarterbacks in value over average in this metric, but he’s also first in value over replacement, and second in first downs per pass attempt. It is not a historically great season, but Rodgers has been outstanding.

• A couple of quarterbacks on run-heavy teams that are frequent targets of criticism are Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer. But both fare pretty well here, as each passer has gained first downs on 38% of his pass attempts. Hoyer does not grade well in ESPN’s QBR because of his poor third down play, so he must be doing well on other downs, right? As it turns out, the Browns lead the league in first down percentage on passes that come on first or second down. What does that mean? You tell me.

• No quarterback has struggled to move the chains quite like Derek Carr. Just 27% of the Raiders rookie’s pass attempts have picked up a first down. Not surprisingly, he’s joined by fellow rookie Blake Bortles and second-year quarterback Geno Smith at the bottom of the first down standings.

• If you don’t know how to analyze quarerback stats, you might wonder what’s going on with the Jay Cutler narrative. The Bears quarterback has thrown for 28 touchdowns and completed 66.1% of his passes! Doesn’t that mean he’s good? Well, not so much. His 18 interceptions and 12 fumbles (8 lost) are both league-leading figures, and his 10.5 yards-per-catch average is the lowest of his career. As a result, he gets graded as above replacement but below average, which seems to jive with what the eye test will tell you. But it’s certainly a reminder that passing numbers need to be era-adjusted when a player with 28 touchdowns and a 66% completion percentage gets benched.

• Andrew Luck is having his finest season as a pro, but it’s worth noting he has struggled a bit with turnovers this year. The Colts quarterback ranked 6th in interception rate a year ago, but he has 22 turnovers in 2014. While he leads the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns, he ranks “only” 5th in value over replacement and sixth (behind Romo) in value over average.

Let me know your thoughts about this adjusted formula. It certainly takes a bit more time to calculate that standard ANY/A, but I am more confident in these results.