A couple of years ago, I wrote about the best field goal kickers in NFL history. That was a three–part series where I measured how accurate each field goal kicker has been after adjusting for era and distance. The result? Nick Lowery was, by a clear margin, the most valuable field goal kicker in NFL history. He made kicks at a rate nearly 10% higher than league average after adjusting for era and distance, an astonishing level of success considering his reputation hasn’t quite matched his production.
Today, I wanted to update that post and also provide a comparison of the four men generally considered in contention for the title of top field goal kicker in history: Jan Stenerud, the first pure placekicker to make the Hall of Fame, Morten Andersen, who became the second such Hall of Famer this year, Nick Lowery, my choice for the best kicker ever, and Gary Anderson, who had a long and distinguished career.
I used a simple methodology this time around to compare the four kickers: I catalogued all field goal attempts in NFL history into five yard ranges (i.e., 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, etc.). Then, I looked at the league average success rate that season and calculated the expected number of field goals an average kicker would be expected to make from that range. So if the league average rate on kicks from 40-44 yards was 75%, a kicker with 8 field goal attempts from that rage would be “expected” to make 6 of those attempts. Finally, I calculated how many field goals each kicker made above expectation, and then created the following four charts. So if a kicker made 7 out of 8, he would be at +1.0. I have coded particularly good outcomes in blue, and bad outcomes in red. Let’s get to it.
Jan Stenerud
Stenerud was great early in his career, with four great seasons preceding over a decade of solid play. He was famous for his big leg, but he was great at the mid-range field goal, which was a much riskier proposition during his era. Over the course of his career, he made 32.9 more field goals than the average kicker by this measure, and deserves to be recognized as the first great placekicker in league history (or, at least, the first great one since Lou Groza).
Gary Anderson:
Anderson, of course, was remarkable in 1998, his best season (at least until his last kick; note that all data in today’s article does include the postseason). He was consistently above average from 30 to 49 yards, which is what earned him the reputation as being a remarkably accurate kicker. He didn’t have much success on longer field goals, though, which is probably why he ranks fourth in this group. For his career, he was 13 of 42 from 50+ yards, while Andersen was 40 of 84, Lowery was 22 of 50, and Stenerud (in a much harder era) was 17 of 65. When placing him on the Mount Rushmore kickers, that’s enough to relegate him to the back of the pack.
Morten Andersen:
Morten had a great three-year run beginning in 1985, and hung around forever, but you can see that he was only a slightly better than average kicker for most of his final decade (of course, that’s still incredible given his age!). Still, don’t let the longevity distract from his other accomplishments: he was a remarkably successful kicker across all ranges. He had a powerful leg, as evidenced by his +1.4 in the 55-59 range, and he attempted so many field goals in the 50-54 range precisely because of his kicking power. It’s clear that the numbers underestimate his long range ability precisely because it ignores that he was given so many opportunities that lesser kickers were not. But while Andersen was excellent and had a great leg, the numbers make it clear that he simply wasn’t as effective as Lowery (and that’s before getting to the climate adjustments at the end of this article).
Nick Lowery:
The amount of blue on the graph is visually striking. Lowery had a shorter career, but this chart shows how dominant he was. He was as automatic as it gets from mid-range, and above-average everywhere. From 1980 to 1992, he was the best kicker in football, and that 13-year run of greatness helped him make 40.9 more field goals than the average placekicker.
The table below drives home this point. I looked at the 32 placekickers with the most field goal attempts from 1980 to 1992. Lowery made the most field goals during this time, but more importantly, he also had the highest field goal percentage. (As an aside: Lowery led all kickers in field goal percentage in the 1980s… and then repeated that feat in the 1990s.) In fact, he converted at a rate over 8% higher than the average rate of the other kickers during this study, which is more significant given how concentrated the results are. And Lowery was this accurate despite his average field goal attempt, his average field goal made, and his average missed field goal all coming from farther away than the average kicker:
| Kicker | FG Att | FG Made | FG Perc | Avg Length of Kick | Avg Length of Made | Avg Length of Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Lowery | 388 | 310 | 79.9% | 36.8 | 35.0 | 44.2 |
| Gary Anderson | 350 | 267 | 76.3% | 35.9 | 33.9 | 42.4 |
| Eddie Murray | 342 | 254 | 74.3% | 37.3 | 35.8 | 41.6 |
| Morten Andersen | 324 | 253 | 78.1% | 37.2 | 35.1 | 44.4 |
| Pat Leahy | 320 | 237 | 74.1% | 34.4 | 31.8 | 41.8 |
| Jim Breech | 324 | 234 | 72.2% | 35.4 | 32.5 | 42.7 |
| Matt Bahr | 317 | 233 | 73.5% | 34.5 | 32.2 | 41.0 |
| Norm Johnson | 287 | 206 | 71.8% | 37.3 | 35.0 | 43.2 |
| Chris Bahr | 293 | 194 | 66.2% | 36.5 | 33.7 | 42.0 |
| Kevin Butler | 260 | 188 | 72.3% | 34.8 | 31.5 | 43.4 |
| Rich Karlis | 259 | 186 | 71.8% | 35.5 | 33.1 | 41.7 |
| Tony Franklin | 251 | 167 | 66.5% | 36.5 | 33.6 | 42.4 |
| Mike Lansford | 229 | 167 | 72.9% | 35.2 | 33.1 | 40.8 |
| Mark Moseley | 243 | 163 | 67.1% | 36.0 | 33.0 | 42.1 |
| Ray Wersching | 219 | 158 | 72.1% | 35.4 | 33.1 | 41.3 |
| Tony Zendejas | 214 | 158 | 73.8% | 36.5 | 35.2 | 40.4 |
| Chip Lohmiller | 207 | 151 | 72.9% | 36.1 | 33.5 | 43.1 |
| Scott Norwood | 202 | 146 | 72.3% | 35.8 | 33.5 | 41.7 |
| Raul Allegre | 191 | 142 | 74.3% | 37.2 | 34.9 | 43.8 |
| Rafael Septien | 186 | 141 | 75.8% | 36.1 | 33.6 | 43.7 |
| Al Del Greco | 199 | 135 | 67.8% | 36.2 | 33.5 | 41.9 |
| Dean Biasucci | 195 | 134 | 68.7% | 38.7 | 35.5 | 45.8 |
| Mike Cofer | 184 | 124 | 67.4% | 36.5 | 33.6 | 42.6 |
| Paul McFadden | 163 | 120 | 73.6% | 37.7 | 35.6 | 43.4 |
| Roger Ruzek | 162 | 117 | 72.2% | 36.2 | 34.4 | 41.1 |
| Mick Luckhurst | 165 | 116 | 70.3% | 37.9 | 36.3 | 41.4 |
| Rolf Benirschke | 171 | 114 | 66.7% | 36.1 | 33.8 | 40.6 |
| Donald Igwebuike | 143 | 108 | 75.5% | 38.4 | 35.5 | 47.4 |
| Fuad Reveiz | 143 | 103 | 72% | 36.8 | 34.2 | 43.5 |
| Greg Davis | 157 | 101 | 64.3% | 38.5 | 36.0 | 42.9 |
| Jeff Jaeger | 141 | 101 | 71.6% | 37.2 | 35.0 | 42.8 |
| Neil O'Donoghue | 145 | 87 | 60% | 37.1 | 33.9 | 42.1 |
| Average | 230.4 | 166.1 | 71.5% | 36.5 | 34.1 | 42.6 |
Lowery vs. Andersen (and Anderson and Stenerud): The Stadium Effects
Even if the statistics were even for Lowery and Andersen, there’s one key difference between Andersen and Lowery: where they kicked. Andersen played a lot of games in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, the Louisiana Superdome, or another dome stadium. In fact, 59% of Andersen’s career field goals came inside domes, compared to just 11% for Lowery (with most of those coming in the Seattle Kingdome or Houston Astrodome).
In addition, a lot of Lowery’s kicks came in cold weather (less than 40 degrees at kickoff) or in wind (more than 10 mph), thanks to playing his home games at Arrowhead Stadium and later in Giants Stadium. One particularly rough game came at Giants Stadium when Lowery was a visitor. On December 12, 1988, Lowery and the Chiefs traveled to face the Giants in a game played with 21 mile per hour winds and 14 degree wind chill. The New York Times report of the game opened as follows: “The swirling gusts redirected airborne footballs inside Giants Stadium. The wind-chill factor was well beneath reasonable.”
The quarterbacks combined to complete 21 of 50 passes. But Lowery went 4 for 5 that day, missing from 29 yards (again, the conditions were not good) but making from 31, 41, 46, and even 51 yards. That’s just one example, but Lowery’s career was played, year after year, in worse conditions than Andersen’s. The table below shows the percentage of kicks for each of the four kickers that were attempted in a dome, attempted in winds of at least 10mph, or in weather colder than 40 degrees:
| Kicker | Total FGs | % of FGs In Dome | % of FGs in Wind | % of FGs in Cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morten Andersen | 732 | 58.6% | 20.2% | 5.3% |
| Gary Anderson | 712 | 23.5% | 40.2% | 19.4% |
| Jan Stenerud | 579 | 9.8% | 56.5% | 22.6% |
| Nick Lowery | 491 | 11.0% | 53.8% | 21.4% |
And since a picture is worth a thousand words, here’s how Lowery’s kicks compared to Andersen’s over the course of their career when it comes to the conditions: Green signals good to go, Yellow for caution, and Red for danger.
Lowery:
Andersen:
Andersen kicked for longer, but Lowery kicked for a very long time, too. And he was a more efficient and accurate kicker despite playing in worse conditions. I remain convinced that Lowery is the best field goal kicker of all time. And if Andersen is a worthy Hall of Fame choice, then Lowery is, too.