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Least-Conforming Games of 2015

The Buccaneers were not very good last year. Tampa Bay finished with the worst SRS in the NFC, and the second-worst in the NFL ahead of only Tennessee. But that doesn’t mean the Bucs season was predictable; in fact, Tampa Bay had arguably the two weirdest games of the year.

The Bucs opened the season with the least-conforming game of the first half of the season: Tampa lost, at home, to Tennessee, by 28 points! That’s incredible: the Titans only other two wins were by 3 points against Jacksonville and in overtime against the Saints.

But, amazingly, that wasn’t even the least-conforming game of the Bucs season. In week 11, in Philadelphia, Tampa Bay beat the Eagles 45-17. The same team losing at home by 28 points to Tennessee and winning by 28 points on the road in Philadelphia? That’s pretty weird.

The table below shows all 512 regular season games from 2015, and how it differed from expectations.  Here’s how to read the first line. The biggest outlier game was Tampa Bay against Philadelphia, which came in week 11.  You can click the Boxscore link to go to that game’s boxscore on PFR.  Tampa Bay had an SRS rating of -7.7, while Philadelphia’s rating was -4.7.  As a result, given that the game was in Philadelphia, the Expected Margin of Victory for Tampa Bay was -6.0.  In reality, Tampa Bay scored 45 points and allowed 17, for a 28-point Margin of Victory. That exceeded expectations by 34.0 points.

RkTmH/ROppWkBoxscoreTm SRSOpp SRSExp MOVPFPAAct MOVDiff
1tamRphi11Boxscore-7.7-4.7-6.045172834.0
2seaRcrd17Boxscore11.312.3-4.03663034.0
3otiRtam1Boxscore-10.5-7.7-5.842142833.8
4jaxHclt14Boxscore-7.4-6.62.351163532.7
5seaRmin13Boxscore11.35.82.53873128.5
6chiRram10Boxscore-1.3-0.2-4.137132428.1
7miaRoti6Boxscore-6.7-10.50.938102827.1
8atlHhtx4Boxscore-3.8-0.7-0.148212727.1
9kanNdet8Boxscore9.2-0.49.645103525.4
10wasHnor10Boxscore-2.0-6.67.647143325.4
11sfoHmin1Boxscore-5.55.8-8.42031725.4
12detHphi12Boxscore-0.4-4.77.245143123.8
13bufRmia3Boxscore-0.1-6.73.541142723.5
14carHatl14Boxscore8.1-3.814.93803823.1
15phiRnwe13Boxscore-4.77.0-14.63528721.6
16kanRsdg11Boxscore9.2-2.68.83333021.2
17htxRoti16Boxscore-0.7-10.56.83462821.2
18miaHhtx7Boxscore-6.7-0.7-2.944261820.9
19miaHnwe17Boxscore-6.77.0-10.620101020.6
20gnbRmin11Boxscore5.35.8-3.530131720.5
21ramRsea16Boxscore-0.211.3-14.52317620.5
22nygRbuf4Boxscore-3.6-0.1-6.424101420.4
23cinRcle13Boxscore10.7-6.113.83733420.2
24crdHgnb16Boxscore12.35.310.03883020.0
25minHnyg16Boxscore5.8-3.612.449173219.6
26crdHsfo3Boxscore12.3-5.520.84774019.2
27seaRrav14Boxscore11.3-1.910.23562918.8
28htxRcin10Boxscore-0.710.7-14.4106418.4
29phiHnyg6Boxscore-4.7-3.61.92772018.1
30pitRcin14Boxscore8.710.7-4.933201317.9
31ramRcrd4Boxscore-0.212.3-15.52422217.5
32phiHnor5Boxscore-4.7-6.64.939172217.1
33nweHjax3Boxscore7.0-7.417.351173416.7
34pitHclt13Boxscore8.7-6.618.445103516.6
35ravRpit4Boxscore-1.98.7-13.62320316.6
36nweRhtx14Boxscore7.0-0.74.72762116.3
37phiRnyj3Boxscore-4.71.3-9.02417716.0
38atlHcar16Boxscore-3.88.1-8.92013715.9
39cltRhtx5Boxscore-6.6-0.7-8.92720715.9
40kanRden10Boxscore9.25.80.429131615.6
41denHgnb8Boxscore5.85.33.529101915.5
42crdRdet5Boxscore12.3-0.49.742172515.3
43dalRphi2Boxscore-6.9-4.7-5.320101015.3
44carHwas11Boxscore8.1-2.013.144162814.9
45cltRcar8Boxscore-6.68.1-17.82629-314.8
46miaRwas1Boxscore-6.7-2.0-7.71710714.7
47crdRram13Boxscore12.3-0.29.52732414.5
48chiRkan5Boxscore-1.39.2-13.41817114.4
49crdRchi2Boxscore12.3-1.310.648232514.4
50htxHjax17Boxscore-0.7-7.49.63062414.4
51cleRkan16Boxscore-6.19.2-18.31317-414.3
52wasRphi16Boxscore-2.0-4.7-0.338241414.3
53dalHsea8Boxscore-6.911.3-15.31213-114.3
54chiRgnb12Boxscore-1.35.3-9.51713413.5
55denRkan2Boxscore5.89.2-6.43124713.4
56dalRmia11Boxscore-6.9-6.7-3.324141013.3
57sfoRchi13Boxscore-5.5-1.3-7.32620613.3
58nweRdal5Boxscore7.0-6.910.93062413.1
59gnbHsea2Boxscore5.311.3-3.027171013.0
60minRrai10Boxscore5.8-0.23.030141613.0
61otiRnor9Boxscore-10.5-6.6-6.93428612.9
62nygRtam9Boxscore-3.6-7.71.132181412.9
63wasHram2Boxscore-2.0-0.21.224101412.8
64norRcar3Boxscore-6.68.1-17.72227-512.7
65ramHsfo8Boxscore-0.2-5.58.42762112.6
66raiHnyj8Boxscore-0.21.31.434201412.6
67pitHcrd6Boxscore8.712.3-0.625131212.6
68cltHden9Boxscore-6.65.8-9.42724312.4
69nweHmia8Boxscore7.0-6.716.63672912.4
70cinRrai1Boxscore10.7-0.27.933132012.1
71raiRden14Boxscore-0.25.8-9.01512312.0
72kanRrav15Boxscore9.2-1.98.134142011.9
73detRsea4Boxscore-0.411.3-14.71013-311.7
74cleHsfo14Boxscore-6.1-5.52.424101411.6
75ramHsea1Boxscore-0.211.3-8.53431311.5
76sdgRcin2Boxscore-2.610.7-16.31924-511.3
77tamRnor2Boxscore-7.7-6.6-4.12619711.1
78dalRwas13Boxscore-6.9-2.0-8.01916311.0
79minHchi15Boxscore5.8-1.310.138172110.9
80gnbHkan3Boxscore5.39.2-0.938281010.9
81atlRdal3Boxscore-3.8-6.90.239281110.8
82detRgnb10Boxscore-0.45.3-8.71816210.7
83ravHpit16Boxscore-1.98.7-7.62017310.6
84cinHkan4Boxscore10.79.24.536211510.5
85nyjHcle1Boxscore1.3-6.110.531102110.5
86jaxRrav10Boxscore-7.4-1.9-8.42220210.4
87seaHchi3Boxscore11.3-1.315.62602610.4
88cleRrav5Boxscore-6.1-1.9-7.23330310.2
89jaxNbuf7Boxscore-7.4-0.1-7.23431310.2
90carRsea6Boxscore8.111.3-6.22723410.2
91cinHram12Boxscore10.7-0.213.83172410.2
92tamRatl8Boxscore-7.7-3.8-6.9232039.9
93norRcrd1Boxscore-6.612.3-21.91931-129.9
94norHatl6Boxscore-6.6-3.80.23121109.8
95nygHwas3Boxscore-3.6-2.01.43221119.6
96bufRnyj10Boxscore-0.11.3-4.5221759.5
97minRgnb17Boxscore5.85.3-2.5201379.5
98ravRcrd7Boxscore-1.912.3-17.21826-89.2
99carHtam17Boxscore8.1-7.718.83810289.2
100htxHnor12Boxscore-0.7-6.68.8246189.2
101phiRnyg17Boxscore-4.7-3.6-4.1353059.1
102crdRphi15Boxscore12.3-4.713.94017239.1
103ramHcle7Boxscore-0.2-6.19.0246189.0
104crdRsea10Boxscore12.311.3-2.0393279.0
105wasRdal17Boxscore-2.0-6.92.03423119.0
106cltRmia16Boxscore-6.6-6.7-3.0181269.0
107raiRpit9Boxscore-0.28.7-12.03538-39.0
108sdgHmia15Boxscore-2.6-6.77.03014169.0
109norRclt7Boxscore-6.6-6.6-2.9272168.9
110cltHtam12Boxscore-6.6-7.74.12512138.9
111norRtam14Boxscore-6.6-7.7-1.9241778.9
112cltRatl11Boxscore-6.6-3.8-5.9242138.9
113sfoHcrd12Boxscore-5.512.3-14.81319-68.8
114wasHbuf15Boxscore-2.0-0.11.23525108.8
115norRatl17Boxscore-6.6-3.8-5.8201738.8
116denRdet3Boxscore5.8-0.43.22412128.8
117norHcar13Boxscore-6.68.1-11.73841-38.7
118raiRsdg7Boxscore-0.2-2.6-0.6372988.6
119nyjHnwe16Boxscore1.37.0-2.6262068.6
120denRsdg13Boxscore5.8-2.65.4173148.6
121nyjRclt2Boxscore1.3-6.65.0207138.0
122sdgRkan14Boxscore-2.69.2-14.8310-77.8
123tamRwas7Boxscore-7.7-2.0-8.83031-17.8
124pitHsfo2Boxscore8.7-5.517.34318257.7
125nyjHwas6Boxscore1.3-2.06.33420147.7
126kanRrai13Boxscore9.2-0.26.43420147.6
127ravRcin17Boxscore-1.910.7-15.61624-87.6
128gnbRrai15Boxscore5.3-0.22.53020107.5
129htxRjax6Boxscore-0.7-7.43.63120117.4
130norHjax16Boxscore-6.6-7.43.83827117.2
131atlRnyg2Boxscore-3.8-3.6-3.2242047.2
132nyjHoti14Boxscore1.3-10.514.9308227.1
133cinRpit8Boxscore10.78.7-1.1161067.1
134nyjHmia12Boxscore1.3-6.711.03820187.0
135nygRmia14Boxscore-3.6-6.70.1312476.9
136carRdal12Boxscore8.1-6.912.13314196.9
137detHsfo16Boxscore-0.4-5.58.13217156.9
138phiRdal9Boxscore-4.7-6.9-0.7332766.7
139jaxRnyj9Boxscore-7.41.3-11.72328-56.7
140wasRchi14Boxscore-2.0-1.3-3.7242136.7
141cleHoti2Boxscore-6.1-10.57.42814146.6
142kanHpit7Boxscore9.28.73.52313106.5
143nygHnwe10Boxscore-3.67.0-7.52627-16.5
144minRcrd14Boxscore5.812.3-9.52023-36.5
145bufHmia9Boxscore-0.1-6.79.53317166.5
146raiRkan17Boxscore-0.29.2-12.41723-66.4
147otiHbuf5Boxscore-10.5-0.1-7.41314-16.4
148minHkan6Boxscore5.89.2-0.4161066.4
149gnbRsfo4Boxscore5.3-5.57.8173146.2
150detRchi17Boxscore-0.4-1.3-2.1242046.1
151htxHnyj11Boxscore-0.71.30.9241776.1
152miaRphi10Boxscore-6.7-4.7-5.0201916.0
153ramRmin9Boxscore-0.25.8-9.01821-36.0
154cleHden6Boxscore-6.15.8-8.92326-35.9
155minRdet7Boxscore5.8-0.43.2281995.8
156gnbHdal14Boxscore5.3-6.915.2287215.8
157nweHpit1Boxscore7.08.71.2282175.8
158nygHcar15Boxscore-3.68.1-8.73538-35.7
159sfoHrav6Boxscore-5.5-1.9-0.6252055.6
160minHsdg3Boxscore5.8-2.611.43114175.6
161ravHcin3Boxscore-1.910.7-9.62428-45.6
162gnbHram5Boxscore5.3-0.28.52410145.5
163atlRjax15Boxscore-3.8-7.40.6231765.4
164bufHhtx13Boxscore-0.1-0.73.6302195.4
165sfoHram17Boxscore-5.5-0.2-2.4191635.4
166cinRbuf6Boxscore10.7-0.17.83421135.2
167nweHwas9Boxscore7.0-2.011.92710175.1
168nyjNmia4Boxscore1.3-6.78.02714135.0
169tamHatl13Boxscore-7.7-3.8-0.9231944.9
170denHcin16Boxscore5.810.7-1.9201734.9
171htxRcar2Boxscore-0.78.1-11.91724-74.9
172detRnor15Boxscore-0.4-6.63.2352784.8
173atlHwas5Boxscore-3.8-2.01.2251964.8
174phiRcar7Boxscore-4.78.1-15.81627-114.8
175ravRcle12Boxscore-1.9-6.11.2332764.8
176ravRden1Boxscore-1.95.8-10.71319-64.7
177chiRsdg9Boxscore-1.3-2.6-1.7221934.7
178phiHbuf14Boxscore-4.7-0.1-1.5232034.5
179gnbRchi1Boxscore5.3-1.33.5312384.5
180sdgRden17Boxscore-2.65.8-11.42027-74.4
181tamHjax5Boxscore-7.7-7.42.7383174.3
182sdgHpit5Boxscore-2.68.7-8.32024-44.3
183bufRkan12Boxscore-0.19.2-12.32230-84.3
184otiHrai12Boxscore-10.5-0.2-7.32124-34.3
185sdgRjax12Boxscore-2.6-7.41.7312564.3
186sdgHdet1Boxscore-2.6-0.40.8332854.2
187denHnwe12Boxscore5.87.01.8302464.2
188pitRcle17Boxscore8.7-6.111.92812164.1
189raiRcle3Boxscore-0.2-6.12.9272074.1
190nweRbuf2Boxscore7.0-0.14.1403283.9
191sdgRgnb6Boxscore-2.65.3-10.92027-73.9
192sfoRsea11Boxscore-5.511.3-19.91329-163.9
193ramHdet14Boxscore-0.2-0.43.2211473.8
194miaHrav13Boxscore-6.7-1.9-1.8151323.8
195cltHnwe6Boxscore-6.67.0-10.62734-73.6
196cleRsdg4Boxscore-6.1-2.6-6.52730-33.5
197bufHclt1Boxscore-0.1-6.69.52714133.5
198bufHnyj17Boxscore-0.11.31.5221753.5
199otiRnwe15Boxscore-10.57.0-20.51633-173.5
200cleRsea15Boxscore-6.111.3-20.51330-173.5
201minRatl12Boxscore5.8-3.86.62010103.4
202seaHpit12Boxscore11.38.75.6393093.4
203sfoHcin15Boxscore-5.510.7-13.21424-103.2
204otiHjax13Boxscore-10.5-7.4-0.2423933.2
205pitHcle10Boxscore8.7-6.117.9309213.1
206seaRsfo7Boxscore11.3-5.513.9203173.1
207bufRnwe11Boxscore-0.17.0-10.11320-73.1
208htxRclt15Boxscore-0.7-6.62.9161063.1
209norHnyg8Boxscore-6.6-3.60.0524933.0
210denRrai5Boxscore5.8-0.23.0161063.0
211phiRwas4Boxscore-4.7-2.0-5.72023-32.7
212norHdal4Boxscore-6.6-6.93.4262062.6
213tamRram15Boxscore-7.7-0.2-10.52331-82.5
214sdgRrai16Boxscore-2.6-0.2-5.42023-32.4
215dalHnyj15Boxscore-6.91.3-5.31619-32.3
216detHrai11Boxscore-0.4-0.22.8181352.2
217carHgnb9Boxscore8.15.35.9372982.1
218chiHden11Boxscore-1.35.8-4.11517-22.1
219sfoRnyg5Boxscore-5.5-3.6-5.02730-32.0
220phiRatl1Boxscore-4.7-3.8-3.92426-21.9
221tamHdal10Boxscore-7.7-6.92.210641.8
222ravHram11Boxscore-1.9-0.21.3161331.7
223cinRcrd11Boxscore10.712.3-4.63134-31.6
224nyjRnwe7Boxscore1.37.0-8.62330-71.6
225chiRtam16Boxscore-1.3-7.73.4262151.6
226jaxHcar1Boxscore-7.48.1-12.5920-111.5
227cleHcrd8Boxscore-6.112.3-15.42034-141.4
228wasHnyg12Boxscore-2.0-3.64.6201461.4
229dalHnyg1Boxscore-6.9-3.6-0.4272611.4
230carRoti10Boxscore8.1-10.515.62710171.4
231gnbRdet13Boxscore5.3-0.42.7272341.3
232htxHoti8Boxscore-0.7-10.512.8206141.2
233cinHcle9Boxscore10.7-6.119.83110211.2
234carRtam4Boxscore8.1-7.712.83723141.2
235cltRoti3Boxscore-6.6-10.50.9353321.1
236chiHmin8Boxscore-1.35.8-4.12023-31.1
237pitHden15Boxscore8.75.85.9342771.1
238nyjRnyg13Boxscore1.3-3.61.9232031.1
239otiRclt17Boxscore-10.5-6.6-6.92430-60.9
240chiRdet6Boxscore-1.3-0.4-3.93437-30.9
241minHdet2Boxscore5.8-0.49.22616100.8
242otiHatl7Boxscore-10.5-3.8-3.7710-30.7
243jaxRclt4Boxscore-7.4-6.6-3.71316-30.7
244sdgRrav8Boxscore-2.6-1.9-3.72629-30.7
245jaxHmia2Boxscore-7.4-6.72.3232030.7
246ravRrai2Boxscore-1.9-0.2-4.73337-40.7
247cinHsea5Boxscore10.711.32.3272430.7
248nygHdal7Boxscore-3.6-6.96.4272070.6
249atlRsfo9Boxscore-3.8-5.5-1.21617-10.2
250bufHdal16Boxscore-0.1-6.99.8166100.2
251otiRjax11Boxscore-10.5-7.4-6.21319-60.2
252kanRhtx1Boxscore9.2-0.76.9272070.1
253pitRram3Boxscore8.7-0.25.912660.1
254chiHrai4Boxscore-1.3-0.22.0222020.0
255htxHtam3Boxscore-0.7-7.710.0199100.0
256denHmin4Boxscore5.85.83.0232030.0
257minRden4Boxscore5.85.8-3.02023-30.0
258tamRhtx3Boxscore-7.7-0.7-10.0919-100.0
259raiRchi4Boxscore-0.2-1.3-2.02022-20.0
260ramHpit3Boxscore-0.28.7-5.9612-6-0.1
261htxHkan1Boxscore-0.79.2-6.92027-7-0.1
262jaxHoti11Boxscore-7.4-10.56.219136-0.2
263dalRbuf16Boxscore-6.9-0.1-9.8616-10-0.2
264sfoHatl9Boxscore-5.5-3.81.217161-0.2
265dalRnyg7Boxscore-6.9-3.6-6.42027-7-0.6
266seaRcin5Boxscore11.310.7-2.32427-3-0.7
267raiHrav2Boxscore-0.2-1.94.737334-0.7
268miaRjax2Boxscore-6.7-7.4-2.32023-3-0.7
269ravHsdg8Boxscore-1.9-2.63.729263-0.7
270cltHjax4Boxscore-6.6-7.43.716133-0.7
271atlRoti7Boxscore-3.8-10.53.71073-0.7
272detRmin2Boxscore-0.45.8-9.21626-10-0.8
273detHchi6Boxscore-0.4-1.33.937343-0.9
274cltHoti17Boxscore-6.6-10.56.930246-0.9
275nygHnyj13Boxscore-3.61.3-1.92023-3-1.1
276denRpit15Boxscore5.88.7-5.92734-7-1.1
277minRchi8Boxscore5.8-1.34.123203-1.1
278otiHclt3Boxscore-10.5-6.6-0.93335-2-1.1
279tamHcar4Boxscore-7.78.1-12.82337-14-1.2
280cleRcin9Boxscore-6.110.7-19.81031-21-1.2
281otiRhtx8Boxscore-10.5-0.7-12.8620-14-1.2
282detHgnb13Boxscore-0.45.3-2.72327-4-1.3
283otiHcar10Boxscore-10.58.1-15.61027-17-1.4
284nygRdal1Boxscore-3.6-6.90.42627-1-1.4
285nygRwas12Boxscore-3.6-2.0-4.61420-6-1.4
286crdRcle8Boxscore12.3-6.115.4342014-1.4
287carRjax1Boxscore8.1-7.412.520911-1.5
288tamHchi16Boxscore-7.7-1.3-3.42126-5-1.6
289nweHnyj7Boxscore7.01.38.630237-1.6
290crdHcin11Boxscore12.310.74.634313-1.6
291ramRrav11Boxscore-0.2-1.9-1.31316-3-1.7
292dalRtam10Boxscore-6.9-7.7-2.2610-4-1.8
293atlHphi1Boxscore-3.8-4.73.926242-1.9
294nygHsfo5Boxscore-3.6-5.55.030273-2.0
295denRchi11Boxscore5.8-1.34.117152-2.1
296gnbRcar9Boxscore5.38.1-5.92937-8-2.1
297raiRdet11Boxscore-0.2-0.4-2.81318-5-2.2
298nyjRdal15Boxscore1.3-6.95.319163-2.3
299raiHsdg16Boxscore-0.2-2.65.423203-2.4
300ramHtam15Boxscore-0.2-7.710.531238-2.5
301dalRnor4Boxscore-6.9-6.6-3.42026-6-2.6
302wasHphi4Boxscore-2.0-4.75.723203-2.7
303raiHden5Boxscore-0.25.8-3.01016-6-3.0
304nygRnor8Boxscore-3.6-6.60.04952-3-3.0
305cltHhtx15Boxscore-6.6-0.7-2.91016-6-3.1
306nweHbuf11Boxscore7.0-0.110.120137-3.1
307sfoHsea7Boxscore-5.511.3-13.9320-17-3.1
308cleRpit10Boxscore-6.18.7-17.9930-21-3.1
309jaxRoti13Boxscore-7.4-10.50.23942-3-3.2
310cinRsfo15Boxscore10.7-5.513.2241410-3.2
311pitRsea12Boxscore8.711.3-5.63039-9-3.4
312atlHmin12Boxscore-3.85.8-6.61020-10-3.4
313seaHcle15Boxscore11.3-6.120.5301317-3.5
314nweHoti15Boxscore7.0-10.520.5331617-3.5
315nyjRbuf17Boxscore1.3-0.1-1.51722-5-3.5
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