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Least-Conforming Games of 2015

The Buccaneers were not very good last year. Tampa Bay finished with the worst SRS in the NFC, and the second-worst in the NFL ahead of only Tennessee. But that doesn’t mean the Bucs season was predictable; in fact, Tampa Bay had arguably the two weirdest games of the year.

The Bucs opened the season with the least-conforming game of the first half of the season: Tampa lost, at home, to Tennessee, by 28 points! That’s incredible: the Titans only other two wins were by 3 points against Jacksonville and in overtime against the Saints.

But, amazingly, that wasn’t even the least-conforming game of the Bucs season. In week 11, in Philadelphia, Tampa Bay beat the Eagles 45-17. The same team losing at home by 28 points to Tennessee and winning by 28 points on the road in Philadelphia? That’s pretty weird.

The table below shows all 512 regular season games from 2015, and how it differed from expectations.  Here’s how to read the first line. The biggest outlier game was Tampa Bay against Philadelphia, which came in week 11.  You can click the Boxscore link to go to that game’s boxscore on PFR.  Tampa Bay had an SRS rating of -7.7, while Philadelphia’s rating was -4.7.  As a result, given that the game was in Philadelphia, the Expected Margin of Victory for Tampa Bay was -6.0.  In reality, Tampa Bay scored 45 points and allowed 17, for a 28-point Margin of Victory. That exceeded expectations by 34.0 points.

RkTmH/ROppWkBoxscoreTm SRSOpp SRSExp MOVPFPAAct MOVDiff
1tamRphi11Boxscore-7.7-4.7-6.045172834.0
2seaRcrd17Boxscore11.312.3-4.03663034.0
3otiRtam1Boxscore-10.5-7.7-5.842142833.8
4jaxHclt14Boxscore-7.4-6.62.351163532.7
5seaRmin13Boxscore11.35.82.53873128.5
6chiRram10Boxscore-1.3-0.2-4.137132428.1
7miaRoti6Boxscore-6.7-10.50.938102827.1
8atlHhtx4Boxscore-3.8-0.7-0.148212727.1
9kanNdet8Boxscore9.2-0.49.645103525.4
10wasHnor10Boxscore-2.0-6.67.647143325.4
11sfoHmin1Boxscore-5.55.8-8.42031725.4
12detHphi12Boxscore-0.4-4.77.245143123.8
13bufRmia3Boxscore-0.1-6.73.541142723.5
14carHatl14Boxscore8.1-3.814.93803823.1
15phiRnwe13Boxscore-4.77.0-14.63528721.6
16kanRsdg11Boxscore9.2-2.68.83333021.2
17htxRoti16Boxscore-0.7-10.56.83462821.2
18miaHhtx7Boxscore-6.7-0.7-2.944261820.9
19miaHnwe17Boxscore-6.77.0-10.620101020.6
20gnbRmin11Boxscore5.35.8-3.530131720.5
21ramRsea16Boxscore-0.211.3-14.52317620.5
22nygRbuf4Boxscore-3.6-0.1-6.424101420.4
23cinRcle13Boxscore10.7-6.113.83733420.2
24crdHgnb16Boxscore12.35.310.03883020.0
25minHnyg16Boxscore5.8-3.612.449173219.6
26crdHsfo3Boxscore12.3-5.520.84774019.2
27seaRrav14Boxscore11.3-1.910.23562918.8
28htxRcin10Boxscore-0.710.7-14.4106418.4
29phiHnyg6Boxscore-4.7-3.61.92772018.1
30pitRcin14Boxscore8.710.7-4.933201317.9
31ramRcrd4Boxscore-0.212.3-15.52422217.5
32phiHnor5Boxscore-4.7-6.64.939172217.1
33nweHjax3Boxscore7.0-7.417.351173416.7
34pitHclt13Boxscore8.7-6.618.445103516.6
35ravRpit4Boxscore-1.98.7-13.62320316.6
36nweRhtx14Boxscore7.0-0.74.72762116.3
37phiRnyj3Boxscore-4.71.3-9.02417716.0
38atlHcar16Boxscore-3.88.1-8.92013715.9
39cltRhtx5Boxscore-6.6-0.7-8.92720715.9
40kanRden10Boxscore9.25.80.429131615.6
41denHgnb8Boxscore5.85.33.529101915.5
42crdRdet5Boxscore12.3-0.49.742172515.3
43dalRphi2Boxscore-6.9-4.7-5.320101015.3
44carHwas11Boxscore8.1-2.013.144162814.9
45cltRcar8Boxscore-6.68.1-17.82629-314.8
46miaRwas1Boxscore-6.7-2.0-7.71710714.7
47crdRram13Boxscore12.3-0.29.52732414.5
48chiRkan5Boxscore-1.39.2-13.41817114.4
49crdRchi2Boxscore12.3-1.310.648232514.4
50htxHjax17Boxscore-0.7-7.49.63062414.4
51cleRkan16Boxscore-6.19.2-18.31317-414.3
52wasRphi16Boxscore-2.0-4.7-0.338241414.3
53dalHsea8Boxscore-6.911.3-15.31213-114.3
54chiRgnb12Boxscore-1.35.3-9.51713413.5
55denRkan2Boxscore5.89.2-6.43124713.4
56dalRmia11Boxscore-6.9-6.7-3.324141013.3
57sfoRchi13Boxscore-5.5-1.3-7.32620613.3
58nweRdal5Boxscore7.0-6.910.93062413.1
59gnbHsea2Boxscore5.311.3-3.027171013.0
60minRrai10Boxscore5.8-0.23.030141613.0
61otiRnor9Boxscore-10.5-6.6-6.93428612.9
62nygRtam9Boxscore-3.6-7.71.132181412.9
63wasHram2Boxscore-2.0-0.21.224101412.8
64norRcar3Boxscore-6.68.1-17.72227-512.7
65ramHsfo8Boxscore-0.2-5.58.42762112.6
66raiHnyj8Boxscore-0.21.31.434201412.6
67pitHcrd6Boxscore8.712.3-0.625131212.6
68cltHden9Boxscore-6.65.8-9.42724312.4
69nweHmia8Boxscore7.0-6.716.63672912.4
70cinRrai1Boxscore10.7-0.27.933132012.1
71raiRden14Boxscore-0.25.8-9.01512312.0
72kanRrav15Boxscore9.2-1.98.134142011.9
73detRsea4Boxscore-0.411.3-14.71013-311.7
74cleHsfo14Boxscore-6.1-5.52.424101411.6
75ramHsea1Boxscore-0.211.3-8.53431311.5
76sdgRcin2Boxscore-2.610.7-16.31924-511.3
77tamRnor2Boxscore-7.7-6.6-4.12619711.1
78dalRwas13Boxscore-6.9-2.0-8.01916311.0
79minHchi15Boxscore5.8-1.310.138172110.9
80gnbHkan3Boxscore5.39.2-0.938281010.9
81atlRdal3Boxscore-3.8-6.90.239281110.8
82detRgnb10Boxscore-0.45.3-8.71816210.7
83ravHpit16Boxscore-1.98.7-7.62017310.6
84cinHkan4Boxscore10.79.24.536211510.5
85nyjHcle1Boxscore1.3-6.110.531102110.5
86jaxRrav10Boxscore-7.4-1.9-8.42220210.4
87seaHchi3Boxscore11.3-1.315.62602610.4
88cleRrav5Boxscore-6.1-1.9-7.23330310.2
89jaxNbuf7Boxscore-7.4-0.1-7.23431310.2
90carRsea6Boxscore8.111.3-6.22723410.2
91cinHram12Boxscore10.7-0.213.83172410.2
92tamRatl8Boxscore-7.7-3.8-6.9232039.9
93norRcrd1Boxscore-6.612.3-21.91931-129.9
94norHatl6Boxscore-6.6-3.80.23121109.8
95nygHwas3Boxscore-3.6-2.01.43221119.6
96bufRnyj10Boxscore-0.11.3-4.5221759.5
97minRgnb17Boxscore5.85.3-2.5201379.5
98ravRcrd7Boxscore-1.912.3-17.21826-89.2
99carHtam17Boxscore8.1-7.718.83810289.2
100htxHnor12Boxscore-0.7-6.68.8246189.2
101phiRnyg17Boxscore-4.7-3.6-4.1353059.1
102crdRphi15Boxscore12.3-4.713.94017239.1
103ramHcle7Boxscore-0.2-6.19.0246189.0
104crdRsea10Boxscore12.311.3-2.0393279.0
105wasRdal17Boxscore-2.0-6.92.03423119.0
106cltRmia16Boxscore-6.6-6.7-3.0181269.0
107raiRpit9Boxscore-0.28.7-12.03538-39.0
108sdgHmia15Boxscore-2.6-6.77.03014169.0
109norRclt7Boxscore-6.6-6.6-2.9272168.9
110cltHtam12Boxscore-6.6-7.74.12512138.9
111norRtam14Boxscore-6.6-7.7-1.9241778.9
112cltRatl11Boxscore-6.6-3.8-5.9242138.9
113sfoHcrd12Boxscore-5.512.3-14.81319-68.8
114wasHbuf15Boxscore-2.0-0.11.23525108.8
115norRatl17Boxscore-6.6-3.8-5.8201738.8
116denRdet3Boxscore5.8-0.43.22412128.8
117norHcar13Boxscore-6.68.1-11.73841-38.7
118raiRsdg7Boxscore-0.2-2.6-0.6372988.6
119nyjHnwe16Boxscore1.37.0-2.6262068.6
120denRsdg13Boxscore5.8-2.65.4173148.6
121nyjRclt2Boxscore1.3-6.65.0207138.0
122sdgRkan14Boxscore-2.69.2-14.8310-77.8
123tamRwas7Boxscore-7.7-2.0-8.83031-17.8
124pitHsfo2Boxscore8.7-5.517.34318257.7
125nyjHwas6Boxscore1.3-2.06.33420147.7
126kanRrai13Boxscore9.2-0.26.43420147.6
127ravRcin17Boxscore-1.910.7-15.61624-87.6
128gnbRrai15Boxscore5.3-0.22.53020107.5
129htxRjax6Boxscore-0.7-7.43.63120117.4
130norHjax16Boxscore-6.6-7.43.83827117.2
131atlRnyg2Boxscore-3.8-3.6-3.2242047.2
132nyjHoti14Boxscore1.3-10.514.9308227.1
133cinRpit8Boxscore10.78.7-1.1161067.1
134nyjHmia12Boxscore1.3-6.711.03820187.0
135nygRmia14Boxscore-3.6-6.70.1312476.9
136carRdal12Boxscore8.1-6.912.13314196.9
137detHsfo16Boxscore-0.4-5.58.13217156.9
138phiRdal9Boxscore-4.7-6.9-0.7332766.7
139jaxRnyj9Boxscore-7.41.3-11.72328-56.7
140wasRchi14Boxscore-2.0-1.3-3.7242136.7
141cleHoti2Boxscore-6.1-10.57.42814146.6
142kanHpit7Boxscore9.28.73.52313106.5
143nygHnwe10Boxscore-3.67.0-7.52627-16.5
144minRcrd14Boxscore5.812.3-9.52023-36.5
145bufHmia9Boxscore-0.1-6.79.53317166.5
146raiRkan17Boxscore-0.29.2-12.41723-66.4
147otiHbuf5Boxscore-10.5-0.1-7.41314-16.4
148minHkan6Boxscore5.89.2-0.4161066.4
149gnbRsfo4Boxscore5.3-5.57.8173146.2
150detRchi17Boxscore-0.4-1.3-2.1242046.1
151htxHnyj11Boxscore-0.71.30.9241776.1
152miaRphi10Boxscore-6.7-4.7-5.0201916.0
153ramRmin9Boxscore-0.25.8-9.01821-36.0
154cleHden6Boxscore-6.15.8-8.92326-35.9
155minRdet7Boxscore5.8-0.43.2281995.8
156gnbHdal14Boxscore5.3-6.915.2287215.8
157nweHpit1Boxscore7.08.71.2282175.8
158nygHcar15Boxscore-3.68.1-8.73538-35.7
159sfoHrav6Boxscore-5.5-1.9-0.6252055.6
160minHsdg3Boxscore5.8-2.611.43114175.6
161ravHcin3Boxscore-1.910.7-9.62428-45.6
162gnbHram5Boxscore5.3-0.28.52410145.5
163atlRjax15Boxscore-3.8-7.40.6231765.4
164bufHhtx13Boxscore-0.1-0.73.6302195.4
165sfoHram17Boxscore-5.5-0.2-2.4191635.4
166cinRbuf6Boxscore10.7-0.17.83421135.2
167nweHwas9Boxscore7.0-2.011.92710175.1
168nyjNmia4Boxscore1.3-6.78.02714135.0
169tamHatl13Boxscore-7.7-3.8-0.9231944.9
170denHcin16Boxscore5.810.7-1.9201734.9
171htxRcar2Boxscore-0.78.1-11.91724-74.9
172detRnor15Boxscore-0.4-6.63.2352784.8
173atlHwas5Boxscore-3.8-2.01.2251964.8
174phiRcar7Boxscore-4.78.1-15.81627-114.8
175ravRcle12Boxscore-1.9-6.11.2332764.8
176ravRden1Boxscore-1.95.8-10.71319-64.7
177chiRsdg9Boxscore-1.3-2.6-1.7221934.7
178phiHbuf14Boxscore-4.7-0.1-1.5232034.5
179gnbRchi1Boxscore5.3-1.33.5312384.5
180sdgRden17Boxscore-2.65.8-11.42027-74.4
181tamHjax5Boxscore-7.7-7.42.7383174.3
182sdgHpit5Boxscore-2.68.7-8.32024-44.3
183bufRkan12Boxscore-0.19.2-12.32230-84.3
184otiHrai12Boxscore-10.5-0.2-7.32124-34.3
185sdgRjax12Boxscore-2.6-7.41.7312564.3
186sdgHdet1Boxscore-2.6-0.40.8332854.2
187denHnwe12Boxscore5.87.01.8302464.2
188pitRcle17Boxscore8.7-6.111.92812164.1
189raiRcle3Boxscore-0.2-6.12.9272074.1
190nweRbuf2Boxscore7.0-0.14.1403283.9
191sdgRgnb6Boxscore-2.65.3-10.92027-73.9
192sfoRsea11Boxscore-5.511.3-19.91329-163.9
193ramHdet14Boxscore-0.2-0.43.2211473.8
194miaHrav13Boxscore-6.7-1.9-1.8151323.8
195cltHnwe6Boxscore-6.67.0-10.62734-73.6
196cleRsdg4Boxscore-6.1-2.6-6.52730-33.5
197bufHclt1Boxscore-0.1-6.69.52714133.5
198bufHnyj17Boxscore-0.11.31.5221753.5
199otiRnwe15Boxscore-10.57.0-20.51633-173.5
200cleRsea15Boxscore-6.111.3-20.51330-173.5
201minRatl12Boxscore5.8-3.86.62010103.4
202seaHpit12Boxscore11.38.75.6393093.4
203sfoHcin15Boxscore-5.510.7-13.21424-103.2
204otiHjax13Boxscore-10.5-7.4-0.2423933.2
205pitHcle10Boxscore8.7-6.117.9309213.1
206seaRsfo7Boxscore11.3-5.513.9203173.1
207bufRnwe11Boxscore-0.17.0-10.11320-73.1
208htxRclt15Boxscore-0.7-6.62.9161063.1
209norHnyg8Boxscore-6.6-3.60.0524933.0
210denRrai5Boxscore5.8-0.23.0161063.0
211phiRwas4Boxscore-4.7-2.0-5.72023-32.7
212norHdal4Boxscore-6.6-6.93.4262062.6
213tamRram15Boxscore-7.7-0.2-10.52331-82.5
214sdgRrai16Boxscore-2.6-0.2-5.42023-32.4
215dalHnyj15Boxscore-6.91.3-5.31619-32.3
216detHrai11Boxscore-0.4-0.22.8181352.2
217carHgnb9Boxscore8.15.35.9372982.1
218chiHden11Boxscore-1.35.8-4.11517-22.1
219sfoRnyg5Boxscore-5.5-3.6-5.02730-32.0
220phiRatl1Boxscore-4.7-3.8-3.92426-21.9
221tamHdal10Boxscore-7.7-6.92.210641.8
222ravHram11Boxscore-1.9-0.21.3161331.7
223cinRcrd11Boxscore10.712.3-4.63134-31.6
224nyjRnwe7Boxscore1.37.0-8.62330-71.6
225chiRtam16Boxscore-1.3-7.73.4262151.6
226jaxHcar1Boxscore-7.48.1-12.5920-111.5
227cleHcrd8Boxscore-6.112.3-15.42034-141.4
228wasHnyg12Boxscore-2.0-3.64.6201461.4
229dalHnyg1Boxscore-6.9-3.6-0.4272611.4
230carRoti10Boxscore8.1-10.515.62710171.4
231gnbRdet13Boxscore5.3-0.42.7272341.3
232htxHoti8Boxscore-0.7-10.512.8206141.2
233cinHcle9Boxscore10.7-6.119.83110211.2
234carRtam4Boxscore8.1-7.712.83723141.2
235cltRoti3Boxscore-6.6-10.50.9353321.1
236chiHmin8Boxscore-1.35.8-4.12023-31.1
237pitHden15Boxscore8.75.85.9342771.1
238nyjRnyg13Boxscore1.3-3.61.9232031.1
239otiRclt17Boxscore-10.5-6.6-6.92430-60.9
240chiRdet6Boxscore-1.3-0.4-3.93437-30.9
241minHdet2Boxscore5.8-0.49.22616100.8
242otiHatl7Boxscore-10.5-3.8-3.7710-30.7
243jaxRclt4Boxscore-7.4-6.6-3.71316-30.7
244sdgRrav8Boxscore-2.6-1.9-3.72629-30.7
245jaxHmia2Boxscore-7.4-6.72.3232030.7
246ravRrai2Boxscore-1.9-0.2-4.73337-40.7
247cinHsea5Boxscore10.711.32.3272430.7
248nygHdal7Boxscore-3.6-6.96.4272070.6
249atlRsfo9Boxscore-3.8-5.5-1.21617-10.2
250bufHdal16Boxscore-0.1-6.99.8166100.2
251otiRjax11Boxscore-10.5-7.4-6.21319-60.2
252kanRhtx1Boxscore9.2-0.76.9272070.1
253pitRram3Boxscore8.7-0.25.912660.1
254chiHrai4Boxscore-1.3-0.22.0222020.0
255htxHtam3Boxscore-0.7-7.710.0199100.0
256denHmin4Boxscore5.85.83.0232030.0
257minRden4Boxscore5.85.8-3.02023-30.0
258tamRhtx3Boxscore-7.7-0.7-10.0919-100.0
259raiRchi4Boxscore-0.2-1.3-2.02022-20.0
260ramHpit3Boxscore-0.28.7-5.9612-6-0.1
261htxHkan1Boxscore-0.79.2-6.92027-7-0.1
262jaxHoti11Boxscore-7.4-10.56.219136-0.2
263dalRbuf16Boxscore-6.9-0.1-9.8616-10-0.2
264sfoHatl9Boxscore-5.5-3.81.217161-0.2
265dalRnyg7Boxscore-6.9-3.6-6.42027-7-0.6
266seaRcin5Boxscore11.310.7-2.32427-3-0.7
267raiHrav2Boxscore-0.2-1.94.737334-0.7
268miaRjax2Boxscore-6.7-7.4-2.32023-3-0.7
269ravHsdg8Boxscore-1.9-2.63.729263-0.7
270cltHjax4Boxscore-6.6-7.43.716133-0.7
271atlRoti7Boxscore-3.8-10.53.71073-0.7
272detRmin2Boxscore-0.45.8-9.21626-10-0.8
273detHchi6Boxscore-0.4-1.33.937343-0.9
274cltHoti17Boxscore-6.6-10.56.930246-0.9
275nygHnyj13Boxscore-3.61.3-1.92023-3-1.1
276denRpit15Boxscore5.88.7-5.92734-7-1.1
277minRchi8Boxscore5.8-1.34.123203-1.1
278otiHclt3Boxscore-10.5-6.6-0.93335-2-1.1
279tamHcar4Boxscore-7.78.1-12.82337-14-1.2
280cleRcin9Boxscore-6.110.7-19.81031-21-1.2
281otiRhtx8Boxscore-10.5-0.7-12.8620-14-1.2
282detHgnb13Boxscore-0.45.3-2.72327-4-1.3
283otiHcar10Boxscore-10.58.1-15.61027-17-1.4
284nygRdal1Boxscore-3.6-6.90.42627-1-1.4
285nygRwas12Boxscore-3.6-2.0-4.61420-6-1.4
286crdRcle8Boxscore12.3-6.115.4342014-1.4
287carRjax1Boxscore8.1-7.412.520911-1.5
288tamHchi16Boxscore-7.7-1.3-3.42126-5-1.6
289nweHnyj7Boxscore7.01.38.630237-1.6
290crdHcin11Boxscore12.310.74.634313-1.6
291ramRrav11Boxscore-0.2-1.9-1.31316-3-1.7
292dalRtam10Boxscore-6.9-7.7-2.2610-4-1.8
293atlHphi1Boxscore-3.8-4.73.926242-1.9
294nygHsfo5Boxscore-3.6-5.55.030273-2.0
295denRchi11Boxscore5.8-1.34.117152-2.1
296gnbRcar9Boxscore5.38.1-5.92937-8-2.1
297raiRdet11Boxscore-0.2-0.4-2.81318-5-2.2
298nyjRdal15Boxscore1.3-6.95.319163-2.3
299raiHsdg16Boxscore-0.2-2.65.423203-2.4
300ramHtam15Boxscore-0.2-7.710.531238-2.5
301dalRnor4Boxscore-6.9-6.6-3.42026-6-2.6
302wasHphi4Boxscore-2.0-4.75.723203-2.7
303raiHden5Boxscore-0.25.8-3.01016-6-3.0
304nygRnor8Boxscore-3.6-6.60.04952-3-3.0
305cltHhtx15Boxscore-6.6-0.7-2.91016-6-3.1
306nweHbuf11Boxscore7.0-0.110.120137-3.1
307sfoHsea7Boxscore-5.511.3-13.9320-17-3.1
308cleRpit10Boxscore-6.18.7-17.9930-21-3.1
309jaxRoti13Boxscore-7.4-10.50.23942-3-3.2
310cinRsfo15Boxscore10.7-5.513.2241410-3.2
311pitRsea12Boxscore8.711.3-5.63039-9-3.4
312atlHmin12Boxscore-3.85.8-6.61020-10-3.4
313seaHcle15Boxscore11.3-6.120.5301317-3.5
314nweHoti15Boxscore7.0-10.520.5331617-3.5
315nyjRbuf17Boxscore1.3-0.1-1.51722-5-3.5
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As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

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  • mrh

    The KAN-DET at #9 had me puzzled at first since the MOV didn’t match the SRS diffence adjusted for HOA. Then I remembered it was a London game and should be coded “N” in the 3rd column. I think the H/R code for the game above it (#8, ATL-HOU) got transposed with KAN-HOU.

    • Good catch! Fixed!

  • I bet the Titans had the least-conforming game in 2014. In the first week of the season, they beat the Chiefs in Kansas City 26-10, one of just two victories (the Chiefs went 9-7). By my calculations the Diff was 36.46.

    I guess playing way over their heads in the first week of the season is the Titans’ thing. Maybe Minnesota should be worried.

  • sunrise089

    I thought you’d have something on Fitzpatrick and checked here first, only to see it buried at 538! 🙂

    • Not only that, my proposed tagline of #ImWithThem didn’t pass muster, either :shrug: