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In Part I, I derived a formula to translate the number of marginal wins a veteran player was worth into marginal salary cap dollars (my answer was $14.6M, but the Salary Cap Calculator lets you answer that question on your own terms). We can also translate Approximate Value into wins using a similar method.

Each NFL team generates about 201 points of Approximate Value per season, or 6,440 points of AV per season in the 32-team era. I ran a linear regression using team AV as the input and wins as the output, which produced a formula of

Team Wins = -9.63 + 0.0876*AV

This means that adding one point of AV to a team is expected to result in 0.0876 additional wins. In other words, for a 201-AV team to jump from 8 to 9 wins, they need to produce 11.4 additional points of AV.

A player who can deliver 11.4 marginal points of AV is therefore worth one win to a team, or 14.6 million marginal salary cap dollars (or whatever number you choose). Alternatively, you can think of it like this: a player who is worth $1.277M marginal dollars should be expected to produce 1 additional point of AV and 0.0876 additional wins. In case the math made you lose the forest for the trees, this is all a reflection of the amount of wins we decide the replacement team is worth, as the formula is circular: if a team spends all of its $72.877M marginal dollars, they should get 57.07 marginal points of AV, or 5 extra wins, the amount needed to make a replacement team equal to an average team.

Next we need to focus just on Veterans, defined as players in their fourth year or later. The table below shows how much AV is provided by all players in the NFL by year, as a percentage of league-wide AV. The right column shows the amount of cumulative AV provided by all players that year and younger:

Year% of Lg AVCumulative %
18.8%8.8%
212.3%21.1%
312.6%33.7%
412.2%45.9%
511.4%57.3%
610%67.3%
78.6%75.9%
87.1%83%
95.3%88.3%
104%92.3%
112.9%95.3%
122%97.2%
131.2%98.4%
140.7%99.2%
150.4%99.6%
16+0.4%100%

Players in their first three seasons provide over one-third of the average team’s value, while nearly half of a team’s AV comes from players in their first four seasons. In 2012, for example, Veterans produced 3958 points of AV. Since we have theorized that all Veterans produce a total of 160 marginal wins, or 5 marginal wins per team, you might think we just want to divide 3958 by 160, but that’s not exactly right because it ignores the concept of marginal AV. Doing so would suggest that one win was worth 24.7 points of AV, and we just determined that one win was worth slightly fewer than half as many points of AV.

This makes sense — a player with one or two points of AV isn’t really doing much, and certainly isn’t doing much that isn’t easily replaceable. What we need to do is subtract a certain number of points from each player to reduce the total pile of points of AV from Veterans from 3958 to 1824 (11.4 * 160). I’ll spare you the complicated math, but that number turns out to be 3.36 points of AV from each player in 2012. What this means is that every Veteran with 3 or fewer points of AV is therefore worth $850K salary cap dollars (our average Veterans minimum). For Veterans with 4 or more points of AV, we subtract 3.36 points of AV to figure out their amount of marginal AV provided, and multiply that number by $1.277M to give us the amount of marginal salary cap dollars they were worth. Add $850K to that number, and you get that player’s salary cap dollar value for 2013 assuming they produce exactly as they did in 2012. I have included a list of the top 100 or so Veterans at the bottom of this post.

But first, let’s take a step back and remember how AV was created. There are many situations, including this one, where we need a metric that is capable of comparing players across positions. In baseball and basketball, lots of stats have been cooked up to do this, and analytics folks have done so with a reasonable degree of precision. In football, no such stat existed prior to Doug’s creation of AV. In most cases, people used “starter” or “number of years as a starter” or “number of pro bowls” as the metric when they had to compare across positions.

AV was intended to be an improvement over those metrics, and nothing more. It is not Not NOT an ubermetric whose purpose is to decide once and for all who the best players in the NFL are. So I should not Not NOT rank all the players in the NFL according to AV, translate those AV values into salaries, and present them in a list. To do so would be to imply that I’ve done something I haven’t done. To do so would be to invite links from team message boards where the first post is “some guy posted a list saying Charles Tillman is worth Seventeen Million Dollars!” and the second post is “I stopped reading as soon as I saw Cameron Wake ranked ahead of Aaron Rodgers. What a bozo!”

I now present to you a list of the amount of Salary Cap Dollars that the top Veterans are worth based on their performance last season:

Name	                Team	Pos	AV	MarAV	Wins	Salary (in millions)
Adrian Peterson	        MIN	RB	19	15.64	1.37	$20.82
Tom Brady	        NWE	QB	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Julius Peppers	        CHI	RE	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Matt Ryan	        ATL	QB	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Cameron Wake	        MIA	RDE	18	14.64	1.28	$19.55
Aaron Rodgers	        GNB	QB	17	13.64	1.20	$18.27
Charles Tillman	        CHI	RCB	16	12.64	1.11	$16.99
Vince Wilfork	        NWE	DT	16	12.64	1.11	$16.99
Peyton Manning	        DEN	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Drew Brees	        NOR	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Eli Manning	        NYG	QB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Wes Welker	        NWE	WR	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Marshawn Lynch	        SEA	RB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72
Patrick Willis	        SFO	ILB	15	11.64	1.02	$15.72

NOTE FOR PEOPLE WHO SKIPPED STRAIGHT DOWN TO THE LIST WITHOUT READING THE POST: the author who generated this list does not agree with the entirety of this list. He, in fact, acknowledges that it’s obviously wrong in spots. He does think it’s pretty respectable, given the difficulty of comparing players across positions using only objective data without just saying that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are worth 10 wins each. He also thinks it’ll give us something to talk about here in April.

We now return to the list.

Name	                Team	Pos	AV	MarAV	Wins	Salary (in millions)
Andre Johnson	        HOU	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Tony Romo	        DAL	QB	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Roddy White	        ATL	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Brandon Marshall	CHI	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Jahri Evans	        NOR	RG	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Calvin Johnson	        DET	WR	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Ryan Clady	        DEN	LT	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Max Unger	        SEA	C	14	10.64	0.93	$14.44
Champ Bailey	        DEN	LCB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Tim Jennings	        CHI	LCB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Haloti Ngata	        BAL	DT	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Joe Flacco	        BAL	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Ray Rice	        BAL	RB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Josh Freeman	        TAM	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	13	9.64	0.84	$13.16
Tony Gonzalez	        ATL	TE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
London Fletcher	        WAS	MLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Justin Smith	        SFO	RDE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Matt Schaub	        HOU	QB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Vincent Jackson	        TAM	WR	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Eric Weddle	        SDG	FS	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Ahmad Brooks	        SFO	OLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Chad Greenway	        MIN	OLB	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Elvis Dumervil	        DEN	RDE	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Joe Staley	        SFO	LT	12	8.64	0.76	$11.89
Ed Reed	                BAL	FS	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Lance Briggs	        CHI	OLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
DeMarcus Ware	        DAL	ROLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Jay Cutler	        CHI	QB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Ahmad Bradshaw	        NYG	RB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Lawrence Timmons	PIT	RILB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Dashon Goldson	        SFO	FS	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Joe Thomas	        CLE	LT	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Jerod Mayo	        NWE	ILB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Duane Brown	        HOU	LT	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Clay Matthews	        GNB	ROLB	11	7.64	0.67	$10.61
Reggie Wayne	        IND	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Steve Smith	        CAR	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Paris Lenon	        ARI	ILB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Larry Foote	        PIT	LILB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Brandon Lloyd	        NWE	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jason Witten	        DAL	TE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Philip Rivers	        SDG	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Carson Palmer	        OAK	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jared Allen	        MIN	RDE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Chris Snee	        NYG	RG	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	QB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Frank Gore	        SFO	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Chris Clemons	        SEA	RDE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Marques Colston	        NOR	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Johnathan Joseph	HOU	RCB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Antonio Cromartie	NYJ	CB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Brandon Mebane	        SEA	RDT	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Matt Forte	        CHI	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Martellus Bennett	NYG	TE	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Arian Foster	        HOU	RB	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jairus Byrd	        BUF	FS	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Michael Crabtree	SFO	WR	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Sebastian Vollmer	NWE	RT	10	6.64	0.58	$9.33
Jeff Saturday	        GNB	C	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
John Abraham	        ATL	RDE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Ryan Clark	        PIT	FS	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Brett Keisel	        PIT	DE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Anquan Boldin	        BAL	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Karlos Dansby	        MIA	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jonathan Babineaux	ATL	DT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Kevin Burnett	        MIA	LOLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Derrick Johnson	        KAN	RILB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Heath Miller	        PIT	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Logan Mankins	        NWE	LG	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Lance Moore	        NOR	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Andrew Whitworth	CIN	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
D'Qwell Jackson	        CLE	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
LaRon Landry	        NYJ	S	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Stephen Nicholas	ATL	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Nick Roach	        CHI	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
David Harris	        NYJ	ILB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Alan Branch	        SEA	LDT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Greg Olsen	        CAR	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Sidney Rice	        SEA	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Marshall Yanda	        BAL	RG	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jermon Bushrod	        NOR	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Chris Johnson	        TEN	RB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jamaal Charles	        KAN	RB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Steve Johnson	        BUF	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jermichael Finley	GNB	TE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Jo-Lonn Dunbar	        STL	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Wesley Woodyard	        DEN	OLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Sam Baker	        ATL	LT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Tyler Polumbus	        WAS	RT	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Percy Harvin	        MIN	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Brian Hartline	        MIA	WR	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
James Laurinaitis	STL	MLB	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Michael Johnson	        CIN	RDE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Evander Hood	        PIT	DE	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
Ryan Wendell	        NWE	C	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
William Beatty	        NYG	T	9	5.64	0.49	$8.06
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