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How Often Does A Running Game Flip The Outcome?

No study is perfect, but some are useful anyway. Pro-Football-Reference.com publishes Expected Points Data for every game broken down by unit. For example, let’s take a look at the week 6 game from the 2018 season between the Broncos and Rams. In this game, Jared Goff and the passing attack produced just 174 net yards on 33 dropbacks, while throwing one interception and zero touchdowns. In other words, it was a really bad game (3.91 ANY/A), statistically his second-worst of the season (behind his disaster performance in Chicago). Meanwhile, Todd Gurley rushed 28 times for 208 yards and 2 TDs, a monster performance that included a 4th down conversion.

The Rams won the game by 3 points, while the team’s running game produced 15 points above expectation. So — if we are willing to make a few assumptions about how a game works — we can say that the Rams won against the Broncos in a game where they would not have won had their rushing game been average.

There were 23 games in 2019 where a team won and where the team’s rushing EPA was greater than the margin of victory. That represents 9% of all winning teams in 2018.

LAR vs. DEN Wk 6
MIA vs. NWE Wk 14
KAN vs. DEN Wk 4
LAR vs. SEA Wk 10
NWE vs. KAN Wk 6
GNB vs. NYJ Wk 16
ARI vs. GNB Wk 13
DAL vs. DET Wk 4
BAL vs. CLE Wk 17
GNB vs. SFO Wk 6
CAR vs. PHI Wk 7
NOR vs. BAL Wk 7
NYG vs. TAM Wk 11
LAC vs. KAN Wk 15
TEN vs. NYJ Wk 13
DAL vs. ATL Wk 11
DEN vs. LAC Wk 11
BAL vs. CIN Wk 11
SFO vs. DET Wk 2
LAR vs. SEA Wk 5
SEA vs. ARI Wk 17
BUF vs. TEN Wk 5
CIN vs. ATL Wk 4

Conversely, let’s look at the Steelers loss to the Saints in December. Ben Roethlisberger played well in that game, but the running game was really ugly. Pittsburgh rushed for just two first downs in the game, Stevan Ridley had a key fumble in Saints territory, and Pittsburgh failed on both a 3rd-and-short and a 4th down run.

Had Pittsburgh’s running game been average — i.e., produced 0 expected points — the Steelers would have won this game (at least, if you are willing to make a few assumptions). There are 28 games like that, where a team lost a game and their rushing EPA was larger (if you ignore the negative sign) than the margin of victory.

TAM vs. DAL Wk 16
IND vs. HOU Wk 4
PIT vs. NOR Wk 16
ATL vs. NOR Wk 3
ARI vs. SEA Wk 4
MIN vs. CHI Wk 11
PHI vs. DAL Wk 14
IND vs. JAX Wk 13
NWE vs. MIA Wk 14
OAK vs. DEN Wk 2
SEA vs. DEN Wk 1
CLE vs. TAM Wk 7
DEN vs. CLE Wk 15
PHI vs. MIN Wk 5
SFO vs. ARI Wk 8
JAX vs. IND Wk 10
DAL vs. HOU Wk 5
TEN vs. BUF Wk 5
PIT vs. OAK Wk 14
NOR vs. DAL Wk 13
ARI vs. CHI Wk 3
NYG vs. IND Wk 16
CLE vs. NOR Wk 2
ARI vs. OAK Wk 11
LAC vs. DEN Wk 11
NYG vs. CAR Wk 5
DEN vs. HOU Wk 9
TEN vs. LAC Wk 7

What do you think? Is this a good way to measure the value of a running game? What would you study next?

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