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Recently, I posted a quick and dirty method to measure quarterback career value above average and above replacement. I used Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt as the foundational stat because its inputs (yards, touchdowns, interceptions, and attempts) are on record back to 1932.

Today, I wanted to use the same model with Adjusted Net Yards per Dropback (ANY/A) as the base metric. I believe ANY/A is a more accurate reflection of quarterback production, but it does have the downside of only being recorded back to 1969 in Pro Football Reference’s database.

Thus, while the previous post covered every passer in the official stat era, this post will only cover value added since 1969. This means greats like Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman are completely overlooked, while legends like Johnny Unitas and Joe Namath only have their worst years included (an unfortunate byproduct of this study’s limitations, to be sure).

In case you didn’t want to click back through the previous article to see the details of the formula, I’ll briefly cover the basics here:

I subtract one hundred from each quarterback’s career ANY/A+ score and divide the difference by fifteen. This gives me the number of standard deviations above average the player’s ANY/A was over the course of his career. [1]This is known as a z-score, which Chase has used quite a few times on this site. I then multiply the result by the number of career dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks) each player has in the data set. The product is the total abstract value above average.

To find value above replacement, I do the same thing but use 85 instead of 100 as the baseline from which to subtract ANY/A. It’s far from rocket science.

The Results

The table displays the abstract career value of the 211 quarterbacks with at least 924 dropbacks since 1969. [2]I chose 924 dropbacks because that is equivalent to six seasons of 154 dropbacks. Danny Tuccitto found 154 dropbacks to be the “mandatory minimum” for comparing QB dropback numbers. I chose six … Continue reading Peyton Manning gets too much love around here, so let’s use Dan Marino as an example: Marino played in 242 games and had 8358 pass attempts and 270 sacks, or 8628 combined dropbacks. His career ANY/A+ score was 119, giving him 10929 arbitrary points of value over average and 19557 such points above replacement.

RkQuarterbackGAttSkDBANY/A+ValRepl
1Peyton Manning266938030396831201291122594
2Dan Marino242835827086281191092919557
3Tom Brady22577924028194117928717481
4Drew Brees21780853318416115841616832
5Brett Favre3021016952510694108570316397
6Joe Montana19253913135704121798613690
7Dan Fouts18156043195923117671312636
8Steve Young16941493584507123691111418
9John Elway23472505167766107362411390
10Warren Moon20868234587281107339810679
11Philip Rivers16453393255664113490910573
12Aaron Rodgers12640473064353121609410447
13Ben Roethlisberger17154234395862111429910161
14Tony Romo1554331248457911648849463
15Ken Anderson1924475398487311342239096
16Kurt Warner1244070260433011646198949
17Boomer Esiason1875205318552310933148837
18Carson Palmer1605443278572110726708391
19Jim Kelly1604779323510210930618163
20Donovan McNabb1675374410578410623148098
21Eli Manning1856227307653410313077841
22Roger Staubach1312958313327112043617632
23Fran Tarkenton1343854274412811233027430
24Jim Everett1584923257518010620727252
25Trent Green1203740259399911231997198
26Steve McNair1614544254479810722397037
27Troy Aikman1654715259497410619906964
28Jeff Garcia1253676181385711230866943
29Rich Gannon1574206302450810824046912
30Mark Brunell1934640390503010516776707
31Drew Bledsoe1946717467718499-4796705
32Matt Ryan1264530218474810618996647
33Vinny Testaverde2336701417711899-4756643
34Dave Krieg213531149458051027746579
35Jim Hart1734352243459510618386433
36Terry Bradshaw1683901307420810719646172
37Phil Simms1644647477512410310256149
38Kerry Collins1986261337659898-8805718
39Matt Hasselbeck2095330360569010005690
40Craig Morton1753503373387610718095685
41Steve DeBerg206502429653201013555675
42Brad Johnson177432625145771039155492
43Steve Grogan1493593247384010615365376
44Matt Schaub1413271178344910818395288
45Daunte Culpepper1053199298349710716325129
46Brian Sipe1253439224366310614655128
47Bernie Kosar1263365273363810614555093
48Ron Jaworski188411736344801025975077
49Bob Griese1362743267301011020075017
50Joe Theismann1673602340394210410514993
51Jay Cutler134435428546391013094948
52Ken Stabler184379328140741038154889
53Randall Cunningham1614289484477310004773
54Neil Lomax1083153362351510511724687
55Jeff George131396735843251012884613
56Roman Gabriel1092666168283410917004534
57Mark Rypien104261397271011018074517
58Joe Ferguson1864519312483199-3224509
59Ken O'Brien129360235339551025274482
60Danny White1662950241319110612764467
61Neil O'Donnell125322925934881049304418
62Billy Kilmer1092388158254611118674413
63Bert Jones1022551232278310814844267
64Chad Pennington892471162263310915804213
65Tommy Kramer129365124939001012604160
66Matthew Stafford93369120538961012604156
67Steve Beuerlein147332833236601024884148
68Chris Chandler1804005380438599-2924093
69Steve Bartkowski129345635638121012544066
70Joe Flacco1224070257432799-2884039
71Doug Williams88250784259110813823973
72Russell Wilson641735164189911620263925
73Marc Bulger96317125434251024573882
74Jim Zorn140314921333621024483810
75Bobby Hebert118312117832991024403739
76Jake Delhomme103293216831001036203720
77Jim Harbaugh1773918361427998-5713708
78Jake Plummer1434350284463497-9273707
79Bill Kenney106243019526251058753500
80Jeff Blake1193241248348910003489
81Lynn Dickey1523125297342210003422
82Jay Schroeder118280820830161024023418
83Aaron Brooks93296323531981012133411
84Jim McMahon119257322627991035603359
85Andy Dalton77249714026371047033340
86Gus Frerotte1473106207331310003313
87Jim Plunkett1573701380408197-8163265
88Elvis Grbac105244512925741046863260
89John Hadl126249917926781035363214
90Brian Griese93279619329891011993188
91Jon Kitna1414442323476595-15883177
92Cam Newton78241918526041035213125
93Joe Namath85208010921891068763065
94Michael Vick1433217316353398-4713062
95Jeff Hostetler152233820725451035093054
96Doug Flutie92215110722581057533011
97Archie Manning1513642396403896-10772961
98Erik Kramer83229912224211034842905
99Alex Smith1263619325394496-10522892
100Daryle Lamonica68140772147911413802859
101Stan Humphries88251614426601011772837
102David Garrard86228117924601023282788
103John Brodie61141647146311312682731
104Chris Miller982892209310198-4132688
105Scott Mitchell99234615525011011672668
106Greg Landry1422252310256210002562
107Gary Danielson101193218321151034232538
108Charley Johnson90160511817231078042527
109Andrew Luck55210611522211022962517
110Kyle Orton872712165287798-3842493
111Sonny Jurgensen68117894127211411872459
112Ryan Fitzpatrick1133473205367895-12262452
113Wade Wilson1252428217264598-3532292
114Richard Todd1192967264323195-10772154
115Jason Campbell902518170268897-5382150
116Mike Tomczak1852337114245198-3272124
117Len Dawson85151016716771044472124
118Norm Snead7817399418331022442077
119Tony Eason90156417717411011161857
120Bob Berry6197413111051107371842
121Jay Fiedler761717114183110001831
122Bill Munson6411037411771086281805
123Steve Bono88170176177710001777
124Byron Leftwich60160592169710001697
125Pat Haden65136311514781021971675
126Bill Nelsen4410215010711075001571
127Rodney Peete1042346244259094-10361554
128Charlie Batch811604161176598-2351530
129Mike Livingston901751152190397-3811522
130James Harris83114910112501032501500
131Colin Kaepernick571361135149610001496
132Vince Ferragamo75161594170998-2281481
133Nick Foles3912307113011021731474
134Don Majkowski901905180208595-6951390
135Kirk Cousins30950429921063971389
136Tony Banks962356227258393-12051378
137John Friesz69136474143899-961342
138Dan Pastorini1403055246330191-19811320
139Robert Griffin37106310111641021551319
140Ryan Tannehill642248184243293-11351297
141Josh Freeman622048112216094-8641296
142Matt Cassel1002574196277092-14771293
143Craig Erickson521092821174101781252
144Kordell Stewart1252358170252892-13481180
145Sam Bradford632292148244092-13011139
146Shaun Hill46119083127398-1701103
147Gary Hogeboom791325118144396-3851058
148Steve Spurrier78110182118398-1581025
149Johnny Unitas53105774113198-151980
150Bubby Brister992212193240591-1443962
151Brian Hoyer4399961106098-141919
152Marc Wilson1262081210229191-1375916
153Steve Pelluer6597481105598-141914
154Eric Hipple1021546160170693-796910
155Jim Miller37104640108697-217869
156Derek Anderson68154376161993-756863
157Jeff Kemp969166898498-131853
158Josh McCown771956171212791-1276851
159Vince Young60130483138794-555832
160Ty Detmer5494667101397-203810
161Steve Ramsey54921110103196-275756
162Damon Huard6494694104095-347693
163Tommy Maddox92120094129493-604690
164Trent Dilfer1303172263343588-2748687
165Mark Sanchez752267158242589-1778647
166David Woodley58130084138492-738646
167Billy Joe Tolliver791707125183290-1221611
168Frank Reich11893268100094-400600
169Kent Graham811339100143991-863576
170Derek Carr32117255122792-654573
171Rex Grossman54156292165490-1103551
172Steve Walsh80131740135791-814543
173Tarvaris Jackson59107390116392-620543
174Patrick Ramsey379137999293-463529
175Rob Johnson4880614094693-441505
176Tim Couch621714166188089-1379501
177Teddy Bridgewater298498393292-497435
178Mike Pagel1321509115162489-1191433
179Chad Henne641954149210388-1682421
180Quincy Carter3896080104091-624416
181Vince Evans1001390118150889-1106402
182Kelly Holcomb378937196491-578386
183Joey Harrington812538124266287-2307355
184Trent Edwards389296999890-665333
185Steve Dils10697280105289-771281
186Brandon Weeden3496566103189-756275
187Steve Fuller901066152121888-974244
188Jack Trudeau671644103174787-1514233
189Mark Malone73164886173487-1503231
190Hugh Millen40928126105488-843211
191David Carr942267267253486-2365169
192Bob Avellini731110110122087-1057163
193David Whitehurst5498099107987-935144
194J.P. Losman45952108106087-919141
195Dave Wilson53103999113886-106276
196Dennis Shaw50924124104886-97870
197Blake Bortles301081106118785-11870
198Todd Blackledge468817395484-1018-64
199Dave Brown731634181181584-1936-121
200Joe Pisarcik61898112101083-1145-135
201Scott Brunner73104671111783-1266-149
202Christian Ponder38105795115283-1306-154
203Randy Wright46111985120483-1365-161
204Jack Thompson518458593082-1116-186
205Geno Smith318527492681-1173-247
206Mike Phipps1191799172197183-2234-263
207Kyle Boller671519123164282-1970-328
208Bobby Douglass911178180135881-1720-362
209Danny Kanell4395663101979-1427-408
210Blaine Gabbert37106699116578-1709-544
211Rick Mirer802043199224280-2989-747

As before, I’ll forgo additional commentary and leave that to the esteemed Football Perspective readership.

References

References
1 This is known as a z-score, which Chase has used quite a few times on this site.
2 I chose 924 dropbacks because that is equivalent to six seasons of 154 dropbacks. Danny Tuccitto found 154 dropbacks to be the “mandatory minimum” for comparing QB dropback numbers. I chose six seasons because it seemed like a fair enough timeframe to get rid of the flotsam and jetsam.
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