Over at Footballguys.com, I identified which quarterback statistics are repeatable and which ones are most likely to regress to the mean. I also ran a regression using touchdown length as my input and future touchdowns as my output.

From 1990 to 2011, 188 different quarterbacks started at least 14 games and thrown 300+ passes in one year, and then attempted at least 300 passes for the same team the next season. After analyzing the lengths of each touchdown pass for those quarterbacks, I discovered the following:

- For every one-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.70 touchdowns in Year N+1
- For every two-to-five-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.56 touchdowns in Year N+2
- For every six-to-ten-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.77 touchdowns in Year N+2
- For every 11-to-20-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.70 touchdowns in Year N+2
- For every 21-to-30-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.22 touchdowns in Year N+2
- For every 31-to-50-yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.33 touchdowns in Year N+2
- For every 50+ yard touchdown pass in Year N, expect 0.33 touchdowns in Year N+2
If a team throws touchdowns from inside the red zone, that reveals an offensive philosophy that is good for your fantasy quarterback. On the other hand, 21+ yard touchdowns might make the highlight feels, but are very unpredictable from year to year. What does that mean for 2013?

You can view the full article here.

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