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Eli Manning and the HOF, Part 2

The common argument for why Manning should make the Hall of Fame is that he and the Giants won two Super Bowls, knocking off the legendary Patriots both times. And in the modern era (i.e., ignoring Tobin Rote), only Jim Plunkett has won two Super Bowls and not made the Hall of Fame.  That’s true, but it’s also a wildly misleading way of looking at things.  If you want to argue that Manning should make the Hall of Fame, that’s a good way to frame your argument, but that’s thinking more like a defense attorney and less like a judge.

Here’s another way to think about it: every single quarterback in the Hall of Fame has been named a first-team All-Pro at least once in their career, except for one quarterback.  And that one quarterback was a no doubt Hall of Famer who also won an MVP trophy.

Two years ago, I wrote about how — statistically speakingEli Manning’s Hall of Fame case falls far short. Today, let’s look not at statistics, but at how sportswriters (i.e., those people who vote for things like the Hall of Fame) viewed these quarterbacks during their careers.  If you include Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, there are 29 Hall of Fame quarterbacks who entered the NFL in the last 70 years.

Of that group, 16 have been named an MVP by the Associated Press: Peyton Manning (5 times); Johnny Unitas (3); Brett Favre (3); Joe Montana (2); Steve Young (2); Tom Brady (2); Aaron Rodgers (2); Kurt Warner (2); Dan Marino (1); Fran Tarkenton (1); Y.A. Tittle (1); Ken Stabler (1); Bart Starr (1); John Elway (1); Norm Van Brocklin (1); and Terry Bradshaw (1).

Of the other 13 quarterbacks, 8 won at least one type of MVP award. Otto Graham was named the UPI MVP three times. Joe Namath was the AFL AP MVP two times, and George Blanda (who is also in for his contributions as a kicker) was the AFL AP MVP in 1961. Dan Fouts was the MVP in 1982 according to both the PFWA and the NEA.

Bob Griese was the AP 1st-team All-Pro choice at quarterback in ’71 and ’77, and was the NEA MVP in ’71 and the Bert Bell Player of the Year in ’77. Roger Staubach was the Bert Bell POY in ’71, and also a 1st-team choice on the All-Decade team of the ’70s. Drew Brees was the AP Offensive Player of the Year in ’08 and ’11, and the Bert Bell POY in ’09. Warren Moon was named the AP OPOY and the NEA MVP in ’90.

The other 5 HOF QBs are Sonny Jurgensen, Bobby Layne, Len Dawson, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman.  Jurgensen was the AP 1st-team All-Pro choice at quarterback in both ’61 and ’69, and was on the All-Decade team of the ’60s.  Layne was the AP 1st-team All-Pro choice at QB in ’52 and ’56, and was on the All-Decade team of the ’50s. Dawson was the AP AFL All-Pro QB in ’62 and ’66, and was a 2nd-team member of the AFL All-Decade team (he also led the AFL in passer rating six times).

And then we have Kelly and Aikman, who along with Blanda, have probably the weakest set of All-Pro honors.  Kelly was the AP 1st-team All-Pro QB in ’90, and a 2nd team choice in ’90 (by the NEA) and ’92 (by the AP).  In 1993, Troy Aikman was named a 1st-team All-Pro by the Sporting News (Steve Young was the 1st-team choice by the Associated Press). In 1994, Aikman was the UPI 2nd-team All-Conference selection, behind Young again. In ’95, Aikman repeated as the UPI’s 2nd-team All-Conference choice, this time behind Brett Favre.

Oh, and finally, when we move to Eli Manning, we get… zero All-Pro honors, zero MVP awards, and zero All-Conference selections.

To sum, of the 29 HOF QBs, 28 of the 29 have been named a 1st-team All-Pro by a major organization at one point in their career.  The 29th is Roger Staubach1, and this is something Brad Oremland wrote about last year. As Brad noted, Staubach actually led the league in total statistical production (based on Brad’s formula) four times:

Most years leading the league in QB-TSP:

1] Otto Graham, 6
2] Peyton Manning, 5
t3] Roger Staubach and Steve Young, 4

Staubach was a brilliant QB in a short career, essentially just eight seasons. Why does he rank below similar players like Graham (10 years), Young (8 years), and Rodgers (9 years)? Staubach didn’t have exceptional seasons. His highest TSP was 2294, and no major organization ever named him first-team all-pro. Paul Zimmerman, an admirer of the ’70s Cowboys, lamented in The New Thinking Man’s Guide to Pro Football, “Every time Roger had a good year, someone else picked that time to have a slightly better one.” TSP sees it the other way around, but it’s true that Staubach never posted the statistical production that normally suggests a first-team all-pro.

Staubach was great, and his fine postseason record doesn’t count toward TSP, but he wasn’t as outstanding as his four years leading the league would imply.

Further to that idea that Staubach was often the 2nd best quarterback in the NFL, we have 1971 and 1976-1979.  Staubach was a 2nd-team All-Pro in ’71 by the PFW and NEA, and a 1st-team All-Conference choice by the AP and SN that season. In ’76, he was a 1st-team All-Conference choice by the SN and AP. In ’77 and ’79, he was a 1st-team All-Conference choice by the PFW, UPI, and SN, and PFW named him a 1st-team All-Conference choice in ’78, too.  That’s five seasons with noteworthy honors for Staubach, even if he never was a first-team All-NFL pick.

Finally, let’s close with a list of all first-team All-Pro honors that went to Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

QbYearAll-Pro 1st Tms
Tom Brady2016PFF
Aaron Rodgers2014AP; FW; PFF
Peyton Manning2013AP; FW; PFF
Peyton Manning2012AP; FW; PFF
Aaron Rodgers2011AP; FW; PFF; SN
Tom Brady2010AP; FW; SN
Peyton Manning2009AP; FW
Drew Brees2009SN
Peyton Manning2008AP; FW
Drew Brees2008SN
Tom Brady2007AP; FW; SN
Drew Brees2006AP; FW; SN
Peyton Manning2005AP; FW; SN
Peyton Manning2004AP; FW; SN
Peyton Manning2003AP; FW; SN
Kurt Warner2001AP; FW; SN
Kurt Warner1999AP; FW; SN
Steve Young1998SN
Brett Favre1997AP; FW; SN
Brett Favre1996AP; FW; SN
Brett Favre1995AP; FW; SN
Steve Young1994AP; FW; SN
Steve Young1993AP; FW
Troy Aikman1993SN
Steve Young1992AP; FW; NE; SN
Jim Kelly1991AP; FW; NE; PW; SN
Joe Montana1990AP; NE
Warren Moon1990SN
Joe Montana1989AP; FW; NE; PW; SN
Joe Montana1987AP; FW; PW
John Elway1987NE; SN
Dan Marino1986AP; FW; PW; SN
Dan Marino1985AP; FW; SN
Dan Fouts1985NE
Dan Marino1984AP; FW; NE; PW; SN
Dan Fouts1982AP; FW; NE; PW
Dan Fouts1979AP; FW; NE; PW
Terry Bradshaw1978AP; FW; PW
Bob Griese1977AP; FW; NE; PW
Ken Stabler1976PW
Fran Tarkenton1975AP; FW; NE; PW
Ken Stabler1974AP; FW; NE; PW
Fran Tarkenton1973NE
Joe Namath1972FW; NE; PW
Bob Griese1971AP; FW; NE; PW
Joe Namath1969NE; NY
Sonny Jurgensen1969UP
Joe Namath1968AP; FW; NE; NY; PW; *PW; UP
Johnny Unitas1967AP; NE; NY; UP
Joe Namath1967NE; NY
Bart Starr1966AP; FW; NE; NY; UP
Len Dawson1966AL; AP; NE; NY; UP
Johnny Unitas1965AP; NE; NY; UP
Johnny Unitas1964AP; NE; NY; UP
Y.A. Tittle1963AP; NE; NY; UP
Y.A. Tittle1962AP; NE; UP
Len Dawson1962AL; AP; UP
George Blanda1961AL; AP; NY; UP
Sonny Jurgensen1961AP; UP
Y.A. Tittle1961UP
Norm Van Brocklin1960AP; NE; NY; UP
Johnny Unitas1959AP; NE; NY; UP
Johnny Unitas1958AP; NE; NY; UP
Y.A. Tittle1957AP; NY; UP
Johnny Unitas1957NE
Bobby Layne1956AP; NE; NY; UP
Otto Graham1955AP; NY; SN; UP
Norm Van Brocklin1955SN
Otto Graham1954AP; NY; SN; UP
Otto Graham1953AP; NY; UP
Otto Graham1952NY; UP
Bobby Layne1952AP
Otto Graham1951AP; NY; UP
Otto Graham1949AA; AP; NY; UP; *IN
Otto Graham1948AA; AP; UP
Otto Graham1947AA; AP; NY
Otto Graham1946AA; UP

Yes, every quarterback who won two Super Bowls other than Jim Plunkett is in the Hall of Fame. Of course, every QB who won two Super Bowls other than Jim Plunkett also had a more accomplished career than Manning. In fact, other than Staubach, every QB in the Hall of Fame, Super Bowls or not, is more accomplished than Manning when it comes to first-team All-Pro selections.

  1. Who should have won it in ’71. []
  • sacramento gold miners

    As an outer circle QB for Canton, I think Eli’s case will grow stronger in the years ahead. He did play six seasons at old Giants Stadium, which wasn’t an easy place for the passing game. Being the all time passing leader for a storied franchise like the Giants will also help offset the statistic argument. But the postseason success(beating Tom Brady and the Patriots twice), will only gain more traction, in my view. If the career ended this season, he’s already in.

    Eli is the polar opposite of Tony Romo.

    • I strongly disagree that he would get in right now. However, it’s worth noting that he’s only one more 3,000 yard season from surpassing Elway to get into 6th place in yards, and a 20-TD season away from getting into 6th place ahead of Tarkenton. At some point, the stats have to get to a point where they, PLUS the two championships, get hard to deny a spot in the HOF.

      The championships alone don’t ensure his place in the HOF, but they damn sure help.

      • Mark Growcott

        I agree I don’t think Eli is worthy based on current resume, his Regular Season figures are rather ordinary to say the least (Comp %, Passer Rating). There is no debate though with Roethlisberger making the HOF who also has 2 rings.

        • Roethlisberger ranks 28th out of 185 QBs in passer rating after adjusting for era; Eli ranks 118th.

          http://www.footballperspective.com/adjusting-passer-rating-for-era-part-v-the-results/

          That’s a pretty big difference. Roethlisberger’s argument isn’t entirely based on rings, but he’s more a poor man’s Staubach.

          Roethlisberger also has three top-5 finishes in ANY/A and six more top-10 finishes. Manning has one top-5 (a 5th-place finish) and two more top-10 (both 10th).

          So in terms of Gray Ink – http://www.footballperspective.com/eli-manning-and-the-hall-of-fame/- Roethlisberger has 42 points, and Manning has 8 points.

          • Brian

            Is Eli even more deserving than Rivers? I don’t think so, but Rivers seems like a HOF long shot.

            BTW, your Gray Ink link is not working.

            • sacramento gold miners

              I see Rivers as an outer circle HOF QB as well, with Eli having a better postseason segment of the career. Rivers has made only one conference title appearance in his entire career, I think Dan Fouts was the superior QB in Chargers history.

            • Bob

              The next big game rivers wins will be his first.

      • Career passing totals without era adjustments don’t make much sense when it comes to quarterbacks.

        In 2007, Testaverde was 8th in career TD passes, with only HOFers ahead of him: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_td_career_2007.htm

        In 1996, Dave Krieg ranked 5th in career TD passes, behind only Marino/Tarkenton/Unitas/Montana. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_td_career_2007.htm

        In 2006, Testaverde and Bledsoe ranked 6th and 7th in career passing yards, behind only Marino/Favre/Elway/Moon/Tarkenton: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career_2006.htm

        In 1984, Jim Hart ranked 3rd in career passing yards: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career_1984.htm

      • Richie

        Just for the heck of it, I calculated Elway and Eli’s passing yards, adjusted for the 2016 passing environment (350.4 yards per game).

        (I just divided each year’s league average by 350.4 and multiplied by the player’s yards in that season.)

        That puts Elway at 56,505 career yards in 16 seasons (3,531 per year).

        Eli is at 49,940 in 13 seasons (3,841 per year).

        • Adam

          Where did you get 350.4 from? That’s way too high.

          • Richie

            Good catch. I got 350.4 by mis-reading PFR. 350.4 is TOTAL yards per team. I was thinking that seemed high, but didn’t spend any time making sure I was right.

            Switching my calculation to only PASSING yards (241.5 in 2016), puts Elway at 60,838 career yards (3,802 per year) and Eli Manning at 51,893 (3,991 per year).

  • I’m probably preaching to the choir here, but it seems *so* silly to me to base a Hall of Fame candidacy on two Super Bowl rings.

    I don’t think we’re having this discussion if Eli’s Giants won only once, so effectively the case for him making it relies heavily on a terrible interception by Brett Favre in the 2007 NFC Championship Game *and* a ball that grazed Kyle Williams’ leg in the 2011 NFC Championship Game (among other plays over which Eli had no control).

    If changing the outcome of literally one play (in which our candidate isn’t even on the field) makes somebody go from “Yes” to “Definitely Not”, then that person should not be a Hall of Famer, in my opinion.

    • Adam

      Couldn’t have said it better myself.

    • sacramento gold miners

      Couldn’t we say the same thing about luck with other SB-winning QBs? If Mike Jones doesn’t make a TD saving tackle against the Titans, Kurt Warner may not have a SB win. Personally, I would have Eli in the HOF eventually even if he doesn’t win it all in 2007.

      • Of course we can say that about other SB-winning QBs. But that shouldn’t be essentially the entire difference between them making and not making the HOF. That’s my point.

        • sacramento gold miners

          That’s where being the alltime passing leader of a storied franchise comes in. I’m not a Giants fan, but it’s more impressive to be a career leader of a franchise like that as opposed to most others. It won’t be first ballot, because of the awards issue, but I’m convinced it will happen.

          • mrh

            If you’re saying that milestone makes it more likely that sportswriters will vote him in, you have a point. If you’re saying that is a good criteria for the writers to use, I disagree.

    • Richie

      Reminds me of my argument about the MVP of Super Bowl XXV. If Norwood’s kick goes in, Thurman Thomas is MVP. But since it missed, OJ Anderson is MVP. Neither player was on the field during the deciding play.

      • Tom

        Totally off topic I know, but I am so with you on this. Thurman Thomas is the MVP of that game hands down.

        • It’d be odd to make Thomas the MVP since the defensive gameplan was to let him have success. The production was there, but that’s what Belichick planned on. Hard to know how to handle that one.

          • Richie

            The voters need to know the intent of the opposing coaches to vote for an MVP?

            • Bob

              Yes.

              • Richie

                If Norwood makes the FG, who gets the MVP? Still Ottis Anderson?

                The Bills win the Super Bowl 22-20 and Thomas rushes 15 for 135 (9 ypc) with 1 touchdown and he DOESN’T get the MVP?

                • Bob

                  Correct. I am a firm believer that mvp goes to the winning team. Lets not act like anderson played poorly.

                  • Richie

                    Correct on what part?

                    • Bob

                      Oops. I misread it. Sorry

            • I’m just saying, in hindsight, how valuable was he in that unique case? This wasn’t teams loading up to stop Earl Campbell and still failing, while opening up the options for Pastorini (who needed all the help he could get). Of course voters couldn’t know the gamelan, but we do and can use it when awarding retroactive awards.

              • Tom

                Agreed. My TT argument mostly hinges on the fact that not only did he have an overall great game, and assuming that BB “let” him run free, he made absolutely crucial runs when we know (as much as we can know) that it was not in there best interest for him to make big gains…that last drive. Norwood isn’t even close without those clutch runs. I Norwood makes the kick, all of a sudden BB isn’t such a genius for letting him run wild.

                In any event, it’s not easy to make these retroactive MVP picks, but that’s where I’m at with that game.

            • Tom

              Exactly…we wouldn’t sit there and say, “Well, you know Belichick let him get those yards”. And as I said, certainly not a good game plan to let Thomas put the Bills in FG range…unless of course the Dark Lord Belichick knew Norwood would miss…

          • Tom

            Sure. But I don’t think the game plan was to allow him to break through for 22 yards and 11 yards on the final drive when the Giants absolutely needed to stop him. I’m sold on him as the MVP. Like Richie said…Norwood makes that kick and it’s a no-brainer.

            • I’m fine with him being the MVP if the Bills win. I’m just saying, in retrospect, it’s not as obvious. I’m fine being alone on an opinion, as I’m sure you know after our copious discussions.

              • Tom

                Agreed, perhaps not as obvious as I originally stated, but I’m still there…he’s my MVP for that game whether Norwood makes the kick it not.

                • Richie

                  I still haven’t sorted out how I feel about giving the MVP to a player on a losing team. But it just seems wrong to me for the award to be decided on a play where neither leading candidate is even on the field.

    • Mr. Dunwich

      Completely agree. If we took the Superbowl victories away from Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Peyton, they would all still be a complete lock for the HoF. Those two Superbowls are the only bright spot on Eli’s resume, and while I admit he played great in those two post seasons, and looked more impressive to me than Brady in those Superbowls, the rest of his career has been unimpressive by any context. Statistically (efficiency coupled with production) he is simply an average QB, and on the field, outside of an occasional game here and there, he really fails to impress me.

      • Bob

        Guy has won over 100 games with less than averages defenses for the majority of his career. Hes only had 1 WR who played more than 3 prime seasons with him and that will ne beckham this year.

        He has proven he can win with different players all throughout his career.

        The only thing that hurts him is media perception. His career is jot far off from roethlisberger and brees who are media darlings. Despite 1 having a rape charge against him in his career.

        Read my other posts. He has the stats and rings to gst in.

        • Richie

          I don’t know. It looks to me like Eli Manning is pretty handily behind Brees and Roethlisberger in just about every statistical category. Manning has more total yards and TD than Roethlisberger, but that’s mainly due to having an extra 16 starts.

          Roethlisberger and Brees are pretty well ahead of him in most (all?) rate stats.

          What makes you say he’s “not far off”?

          • Bob

            Brees has the statistical advantage due to be a dome QB. His outside splits are considerably lower. Plus he has been to the playoffs as many years as Eli in more years played.

            Eli has more yards, tds, and INTs than Ben. Ben has better completion percentage. However if you look at 4,000 yard seasons, 30 TD seasons… eli is right there if not better. Ben has had thr luxury of having a top 3 defense in his career for the majority of his career. Eli has also outplayed ben in the playoffs as well.

            Dont get me wrong, i think both brees and ben are hall of famers too. I just believe they arent thay far ahead of eli. Each 3 has strengths and weaknesses over each other…. brees is definitely the stat padder if the 3. Ben makes more wow plays.

            People are all over eli because of the INTs… but hes a risk taker. And because of this mentality, the Giants won 2 SBs because of it.

            • Mr. Dunwich

              Bree’s isn’t a stat padder anymore than Fouts and Marino were. You bring up defense (in regards to Big Ben) but fail at understanding why Bree’s hasn’t been to the playoffs that often. TERRIBLE DEFENSES!
              Why do you think Bree’s throws so much? Because he is a stat padder? Or maybe because his defenses give up so many points, coupled with a lack of run philosophy, that he has to throw a ridiculous amount.

              Just look at Brady and Brees from 06 to 16. The Patriots defense gave up 3307 points, the Saints gave up 4202, a difference of 895. Averaged out, the Patriots hold their opponents to 18.7 points a game, the Saints to 23.8. In simplistic terms, this means that on average, if Brady and the offense score 3 touchdowns, they have won the game. On the flip side, if Bree’s and the offense score 3 TD’s, they will have lost the game. Considering this, does it not stand to reason that Bree’s inflated passing attempts and numbers, are the result of terrible defenses and the subsequent need of the offense to outpace what the defense is giving up, and not a desire to stat pad?

              Moving on. Eli is a bad risk taker if that is what we are going to call him. His interception percentage is atrocious relative to his era, so is it really worth it?

              • Bob

                Eli has played in many atrovious defenses as well.

                And yes brees and payton are stat padders. How manu times did they call tumeout to keep his streak alive when down 20 plus points and ubder two minutes to go.

                They throw up 30 or down 30. Its payton mentality. Whats amazing is you bring up eli ints…. yet fail to recognize that brees throes a lot of bad ints too.

                • Tom

                  I don’t agree here. We cannot know for certain that Brees and Peyton are padding the stats, and if they are, so what? Your team is behind, the offense’s job is to score. What exactly should they do? Just stop playing? Hell, if you’re team is out of the game, why not play for stats?

                  But in top of that, I don’t think you can compare the Saints defense to the Giants. The Saints defense has been an abomination.

                  • Bob

                    Even saints fans admit up 30 or down 30…. payton got brees his numbers

                    • Tom

                      Honestly, I don’t really care about that too much…I’ve seen enough Saints games where Brees usually has to score when he gets the ball.

                  • Mr. Dunwich

                    Completely agree with Tom here. Never did like people throwing around “stat padder” as it is an absurd statement and doesn’t necessarily fit the reality of what each QB has to work with. I would understand the argument if it’s the 4th quarter and your team is comfortably ahead (say 21+ points), but even then, for those QB’s who have had terrible defenses for the majority of their career, why would anyone expect them to not try to keep compiling, simply out of an acceptable mistrust of their defense? Seriously, it’s one thing to be on a team that is routinely in the top 10 in points allowed season after season, and another thing to be on a team that routinely is in the bottom 10 season after season.

                    Again, looking at Brady and Brees:
                    Amount of Games Opponent Scores 28 or more – Since 1970 teams have only won 13.8% out of 5285 games against these odds
                    Brady 02-16 47 Brady 06-16 30
                    Brees 02-16 74 Brees 06-16 59
                    Amount of Games Opponent Scores 35 or more – Since 1970 teams have only won 6.3% out of 2086 games against these odds
                    Brady 02-16 10 Brady 06-16 7
                    Brees 02-16 28 Brees 06-16 23

                    Since 2006, the Saints defense has a seasons worth of games more than the Pats, in which they gave up 35 or more points. They have almost two seasons worth of games more, in which they gave up 28 points or more.

                    Just looking at last year, the Pats allowed an average of 15.6 points per game, and had 11 games where they held their opponents to 17 or fewer points, easy to manage for a legendary QB like Brady and it doesn’t require him to throw that much. The Saints however allowed an average of 28.3 points per game, with 12 games in which their opponents scored 23 or more points. Again, given this defensive output for both QB’s, would it not stand to reason that Bree’s is naturally going to have to compile more to even come close to winning, relative to Brady. Stretched out to their entire careers, how can anyone with a straight face not take Bree’s numbers serious, and instead slight them by calling him a compiler, stat padder, or call his numbers hollow?

                    This isn’t a rant against Brady or a love affair with Bree’s, simply a logical conclusion based upon the reality of the strengths of the teams around each player. By definition Bree’s will have to throw more than virtually every other QB who exists on a team with defenses that are average or better in not allowing points. In Brady’s case the Patriots are #2 since 2006 (and 2001-2016 as well) in fewest points allowed, with the Steelers edging them out at #1 by 16(!) fewer points. Their are only three other teams (to my knowledge) that have given up more points than the Saints since 2006 (Jaguars 4226, Rams 4245, Lions 4452).

                    So if you aren’t going to look at how great or terrible a defense is, blindly throwing around the title of stat padder is ridiculous.

              • Tom

                Agree about Brees. He’s not out there throwing TD’s when his team is up 17 points. He is consistently playing in situations where the Saints offense HAS to score.

        • Mr. Dunwich

          Bree’s has had considerably worse defenses than Manning overall, by a long shot, yet he is producing much greater passing numbers, both in efficiency and in volume. While Eli hasn’t had the greatest run support, neither has Bree’s. From a quality standpoint, the two have had a roughly equal receiver cast. Yes, Bree’s has had a WR stick around for a longer stretch of time than Eli has had, but that really means little honestly, especially given how much Bree’s spreads the ball around.

          Now I will admit that Sean Payton and Carmichael are a much better offensive coaching team than anything the Giants have put out, and that Bree’s has consistently better o-lines, but it’s not like Bree’s has drastically greater players on his team at the other positions, especially on the defensive front.

          The dome argument is weak. I had posted this the other week on FP, but I will post again here:

          BREES-AWAY-COLD WEATHER ENVIRONMENTS (from 2006-2016)-
          GS 45
          Cmp 1206
          Att 1819
          Cmp% 66.3
          Yds 13038
          TD 78
          TD% 4.3
          Int 42
          Int% 2.3
          Sk 82
          Sk% 4.5
          Y/A 7.2
          AY/A 7.0

          Let’s match Eli’s attempts, and see how Bree’s would compare:

          Brees/Eli-
          Cmp 4525 / 4072
          Att 6825 / 6825
          Cmp% 66.3 / 59.7
          Yds 49140 / 48218
          TD 293 / 320
          TD% 4.3 / 4.7
          Int 157 / 215
          Int% 2.3 / 3.2
          Sk 307 / 328
          Sk% 4.5 / 4.6
          Y/A 7.2 / 7.1
          AY/A 7.0 / 6.6

          So even with Bree’s outside of the dome/fair-weather environments, he is still completing a much greater number of passes, is getting a smidgen more Y/A, takes fewer sacks, and is still better in AY/A by a fair amount. He threw 27 fewer TD’s, but also threw 58 fewer INT’s, giving him a better TDtoINT ratio of 1.86 to Eli’s 1.48.

          Even without his mighty DOME, and on the road, Bree’s is still a more efficient and productive passer than Eli. Essentially, Bree’s at his worse, is still better than Eli.

          I’m sorry, but I just can’t get on-board with Eli, he has never had a regular season that has impressed me, ever. Never once did I see him as a top-5 QB in this league, and I can’t say the same for Bree’s, Brady, Rodgers, and Peyton. If I were building a team, there are at least 10 other QB’s currently in the league I would take over Eli. Watching his post-season runs in 07 and 11, are the only things I will remember him for.

          • Bob

            Drew has played 9 games in cold weather games. Dont know where you get 45 from unless you consider 60 cold.

            I am sorry playing 9 games in a dome every year definitely enhances your stats. And its judt not cold, its wind too…. where eli plays in one of the windiest stadiums ever.

            And eli never had an impressive season. Try 2011.

            4900 yards in regular season with the 30th ranked rushing attack and 25th ranked defense. Throw in 1100 plus more in the postseason. Eli’s 2011 super bowl season is one of the most underrated ever.

            And drew brees doesnt sniff peytom, brady, or rodgers. Your insulting those 3 by putting drew in with them.

            • Mr. Dunwich

              You are right Bob, my apologies. Bree’s hasn’t played in sub-40 degree temperatures 45 times since being with New Orleans, that was a simplistic look playing in areas where the average mean temperature in December is under 50 degrees, so naturally not all of those games are “cold” as not all occured during the coldest month (December).

              However, since you corrected me, I re-ran my numbers and have the actual games that Bree’s has played in, where the temperature was sub-40 degrees, and the games Eli has played.

              BREES / ELI (SUB-40 DEGREE GAMES)
              GS 11 / 25
              Cmp 273 / 454
              Att 428 / 838
              Cmp% 63.8 / 54.2
              Yds 2976 / 5408
              TD 19 / 35
              TD% 4.4 / 4.2
              Int 9 / 34
              Int% 2.1 / 4.1
              Y/A 7.0 / 6.5
              AY/A 6.9 / 5.5
              Y/C 10.9 / 11.9
              Avg. Temp 33.2 / 33.2

              I will admit it is a small sample size for both players, but this is what you were driving at, so let’s look into it. Bear in mind that Eli has home field advantage in 15 of the 25 games, Brees obviously has none. Regardless, Bree’s is outperforming Eli by a considerable margin in efficiency despite the same level of temperature, and despite being away for all 11 games.

              He is beating Eli considerably in Cmp%, a little in TD%, a drastic amount in Int%, a measurable amount in Y/A, and a considerable amount in AY/A. He is still better. Better in a dome, better in warm environments, better in cold environments. Eli is nowhere close in talent and ability to Bree’s.

              I am not a Drew Bree’s homer, despite my posting about him, but how can you honestly believe you aren’t letting bias and emotion come into play when you suggest Eli is anywhere close of a QB as Bree’s is? By the numbers Chase and others here at FP run frequently, he is easily up there with Peyton, Brady, and Rodgers, comfortably enough so that most people will easily put him in that group. Even accredited outfits like Pro Football Focus had him ranked #3 (from 2006-2015), above Tom Brady in terms of performance as a QB.

              • Bob

                I am mot discrediting brees. I think he is a sure fire hall of famer.

                I think peiple over value him just like the site you listed him being better than brady. And i believe people undervalue eli.

                Remember its not cold westher. Qbs struggle moreso in the wind as well. And no one can argue the meadowlands when windy is a pretty tougj place to play, especially compared to a dome.

          • Bob

            Check out brees numbers from dome to outdoors. Your talking DRASTIC differences.

      • sacramento gold miners

        Should the HOF only include several players at each position? I don’t think the story of the NFL can be told without Eli Manning. When you look at SB-winning QBs, the vast majority are current or future HOF players. The non HOF QBs almost always won by at least double digits, and that includes Jim Plunkett. Eli played a huge role in those important wins, and his overall career numbers are already impressive. We’re not talking about Vinny Testaverde here.

    • Tom

      I’m with you on this…but I can’t get over that he made about 3 or 4 of the biggest plays in the biggest game against the probably THE greatest team and coach in NFL history.

      Everything goes right for the Pats, that team just doesn’t lose when it matters…call it whatever you want, but they always seem to come out on top, and you have to be perfect or lucky (clutch) to beat them. The fact that the Giants and Eli did this TWICE means something.

      This is not an easy question…I mean….who else has done something like what Eli did in those two games against an opponent like that?

      Next question: if he’s clutch again in another Super Bowl, and still has crappy (average whatever) stats does he get in?

      • Bob

        He doesnt have crappy stats haha.

        Now troy aikman otoh..

        • Renan

          Yes, he does. Total stats means nothing.

          • Bob

            Haha… there are a lot of HOF QBs with crappier numbers.

            • Renan

              A lot of HOB QBs with worse stats than him? Who?
              Did you even read the articles? Do you understand the concept of adjusting for era?
              Why are you comparing him with QBs with crappy stats? I thought he had great stats.
              It’s you that says he is a lock. I’m just saying is debatable. If he makes it, he’ll be of the worst if not the worst HOF QB.
              He has 2 great postseasons and durability. That’s it. Again, did you even read the articles?

  • James

    I think you didn’t include Namath and Blanda in the main AP MVP group because they were for “non-NFL” leagues, but the text doesn’t make that clear.

    Either that, or there’s some distinction between “MVP by the Associated Press” and “AP MVP” that I don’t understand.

    • That’s correct. I will revise the text, but yeah, those were obviously AFL MVPs.

  • Jonathan Mitchell

    QB Rating is 2% below league average. Completion Percentage is 5% below league average. Interception rate is 6% worse than league average. Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt is 1% below league average. Only thing he is above average in is TD% (5%) and avoiding sacks (sacked a whopping 13% less than league average). So, below average numbers while his O-Line keeps him upright throughout his career. Not a Hall-of-Famer. I really don’t get why this is such a debate.

  • Looking at the empty years on the list….

    2015 – Cam was the Associated Press All-Pro QB

    2002 – Rich Gannon
    2000 – Rich Gannon
    1998 – Steve Young was a 1AP, but Cunningham was the Associated Press choice
    1988 – Boomer Esiason
    1983 – Joe Theismann
    1981 – Ken Anderson
    1980 – Brian Sipe
    1970 – John Brodie
    1950 – Johnny Lujack

    Pretty interesting. Not many years where no HOF QB was named a first-team All-Pro by at least one major organization. I suppose Matt Ryan (2016 AP) would be an interesting one to think about along with Cam.

  • Corey

    Eli’s best quality has been durability. He’s played 12 straight seasons without missing a start; his 211 consecutive starts (including playoffs) is the third longest streak ever, and with another 16 he’d tie his brother for second. He’s already 10th all-time in games started for QBs, and three more full seasons will get him into the top five.

    Eli and Roethlisberger entered the league and became starters the same year, but Eli has made an extra full season’s worth of starts just by staying healthy.

    You could maybe make a case that his career value will end up exceeding much better players who had shorter careers — would you rather have 247 Eli starts (if he plays three more years), or 114 Graham or Staubach starts, 116 Kurt Warner starts, or 129 Namath starts?

    OTOH, when durability is your best quality, that’s not a good sign for a HOF case.

  • Bob

    Hes a lock to make the HOF. Maybe hes not 1st or 2nd ballot, but the resume is…

    – at least top 6 all time in yards and TDs.
    – 2 super bowls
    – 2 super bowls mvp.
    – over 100 wins
    – over 200 consecutive starts
    – one of the best postseason QBs ever

    You can use all advanced stats all you want…. these are good enough to get in alone.

    • He won’t be in the top 6 in either yards or TDs by the time he’s up for induction. And he’s not one of the best postseason QBs ever.

      • Bob

        He will be when he retires which is when a QB should be judged.

        And he is absolutley one of the best postseason QBs ever. Saying he isnt is such a clear bias.

        • Renan

          That’s not when he should be judged. He should be judged when he’s judged.
          If in 5 years he can’t hold his position it’s just an indication that passing stats are “easier” now.
          Stats means nothing without adjusting to era.

          He has never been a top 5 QB in any season. Not even 2011.

          He’s not a top 10 QB in the postseason.

          • Bob

            He most certainly was a top 5 QB in 2011.

            30th ranked run game.
            25th ranked defense
            4,900 yards
            30 TDs
            Another 1300 yards in playoffs against teams who were something like 52-12.
            7 game winning drives
            15 4th quartr TDs…nfl record.

            Yep, just an average year fod a SB QB.

            • Renan

              Rodgers, Brees, Brady not even close.
              Romo > Eli
              I’ll give you #5, ignoring most of the more advanced stats.

              • Bob

                Romo….hahaha

                Advanced stats…. haha

                I just gave you the stats. Terrible run game, terrible defense. Super bowl champion and mvp. The goal is to win it all, not accumulate advanced stats.

                • Renan

                  “Advanced stats…. haha”
                  That was easy. Some people try to hide it. You’re too transparent. That’s all I need to hear from you. Bye, Bob!

                  • Bob

                    “Ok guys… heres the goal of the season. Forget winning the super bowl. The goal is to accumalte numbers in these formulas I made up. So eli, instead of throwing the ball away, take a 10 yard sack. Im stead of going for a first down in 3rd and 7 and risking amd imcompletion. Throw the ball short amd help your stats. Any questions??? Now go accumalate!

                    • Tom

                      Is that really how you see advanced stats? Umm…OK.

                    • Bob

                      No but what i said makes sense. You know damn well there are players who sacrifice plays to enhance their stats.

                      If belicjick isnt big on them, then neither am i.

                    • Tom

                      I don’t look at advanced stats that way (enhancing personal glory or whatever) so we’re good here. For me advanced stats mean “win Probability” (clutch) or “expected points” . Eli Manning does very well in Win Probability analysis in his big games.

                    • Bob

                      Advance stats have a role, i just dont think they are gospel.

          • Bob

            Not a top 10 QB in postseason. Ha!

            • Renan

              Let me guess. You think Eli is better than A. Rodgers in the postseason.

              • Bob

                Id have rodgers near the top. Brady, montana, aikman amongst ithers.

                • Renan

                  Only players from the 80s+.
                  Montana, Elway, Aikman, Young, Warner, Favre, P. Manning, Brees, Brady, Rodgers.
                  That’s 10 players better than Eli in the postseason.

                  • Bob

                    Warner? Bwahahahaha
                    Peyton? Bwahahahahah
                    Favre? Bwahahahahaha
                    Young? Bwahahaha
                    Elway? Bwahahaha

                    A lot of these qbs are KNOWN for their playoff failures. Not sure what brees has done to qualify as better either.

                    • Renan

                      Brees 24 TD-6 INT. It’s not even debatable.
                      Warner 31 TD-14 INT Y/A 8.55.
                      Why do you think Rodgers is near the top and these 2 aren’t?

                      Eli has only 6 PO appearances. Six! How can he be a top 10 PO QB playing only 12 games? R. Wilson has the same number already.
                      You focus on 07 and 11 and ignore that he’s 0-4 with shitty numbers on the other times that he made to the playoffs.

                      These QBs are known for their failures because they played in the PO every year.
                      You sound more delusional with this stupid laugh.

                    • Bob

                      You do know eli has been to the playoffs as many times as brees in less years….

                      Oops. Warner should be noted for losing not one but two SBs with pick 6s… oh well.

                      In the 4 losses, he played well in 2 and stunk in 2. It happens. This past playoff game, his receivers dropped 4 TDs in the first half. But advance stats dont account for that, do they?

                    • Renan

                      Bress has few games but GREAT stats in the PO, but ignored that part of my argument.
                      Eli has few games and AVERAGE stats in the PO.

                      Eli played well against the Eagles? 161 yards in 27 attempt. Please…
                      You sound cynical when you say “Talking about playing well and losing” and say Peyton is known for his failures. Go look at Peyton’s game. There’s probably one for each time Eli made the playoffs that he play well and still lost. Not 161 yards shit.

                      Btw, some advance stats do account for dropped passes.

                    • Tom

                      Don’t get me started on Warner. Yes, two pick sixes…and yet he overcame those pick sixes and had to watch on the sidelines as Big Ben and Brady led their offenses down the field for game winning drives. If Warner’s defense makes stops on either of those 2 drives, we’re signing a different tune. I know, coulda shoulda woulda…but we can’t say that he “lost” those Super Bowls. Far too simplistic.

                      That’s like saying Brady “lost” the SB against the Falcons because he threw a pick-six, which is EXACTLY what you’d be saying if the Pats had lost. C’mon man.

                    • Bob

                      Pick 6s are huge in SBs. I mean the int against the pats was a low scoring game . The int against pitt was a 14 point swing!!!

                      Huge plays that dicated outcomes. Discounting them is plain asinine.

                    • Tom

                      Yes they are huge, and that’s why it’s important to not that Warner was still in the game at the end. He kept fighting and it took game winning drives by two other HOF QB’s to beat him.

                      And incidentally, are you really blaming Harrison running 100 yards on Warner?

                    • Bob

                      Yes, he threw the ball from the 1.

                      And did warner keep them in the game or did anquan and fitz. Fitz last TD was basically all fitz.

                    • Tom

                      Wrong. Throwing the ball from the 1 isn’t an explanation for anything. How many 100-yard return TD’s are there? Do you know? Have you watched that play?

                      Yes, Anquan and Fitz are a part of all of it. Are you really bringing receivers into his argument? Really? In defense of a guy that threw the ball to who knows who and a guy catches it with his helmet?

                      Don’t go down the path of receivers and dropped passes and all this other stuff. A QB threw the ball and another guy caught it or didn’t catch it and we leave it at that.

                    • Bob

                      He threw tje ball right to harrison. He was responisble for at least losing 3-7 points for his team even if you take tje return away.

                      Huge,huge mistake by warner.

                    • Tom

                      Agreed – he deserves blame for the pick, and I’m fine with losing 3-7 points…I agree with that.

                    • Richie

                      58 interception returns for touchdown of 99+ yards in the history of the NFL, according to PFR.

                      http://pfref.com/tiny/P5gbL

                    • Bob

                      How many qbs qould kill for eli’s 2007 and 2011???

                      The list would be quite long that included hall of famers.

                    • Richie

                      Warner is known for his playoff failures? He went to the playoffs 5 times in his career. 3 of those resulted in playoff berths. Only once did he go one-and-done. Even Tom Brady didn’t convert 60% of his playoff appearances into Super Bowls.

                      Of players with at least 250 career playoff attempts, Warner ranks 2nd in Comp%, 1st in passer rating, 1st in AY/A and 5th in winning percentage.

                    • Bob

                      Warner is the epitome of a guy carried by his teammates. You want to credit him for greatest show on turf… thats fine.

                      Pick 6s in SBs are very, very detrimental.

                    • Tom

                      No. He’s not. He’s the epitome of a guy who made humongous plays in the 4th quarter when his team needed it. Brady threw two INT’s against the Seahawks, Bradshaw threw three against the Rams. How you finish also matters (of course it’s not all that matters)…and Warner finished strong in both SB’s.

                    • Bob

                      Wait making huge plays in the 4th to keep them in the game = warner

                      Making huge plays in the 4th to win the game = eli manning.

                      Thanks for showing everyone the difference.

                    • Tom

                      Wrong again. Do you watch football games? You do know that Warner’s 4th Quarter plays gave his team the lead against Pittsburgh. You do know that right? You are aware that he’s on the sideline after that right? Have watched the game? And you are aware that Brady had chances in both Super Bowls for game winning drives and the Giants defense stopped them, right? You watch football games right?

                      EDIT: Damn, I’ve been trolled again.

                    • Bob

                      Giants scored with 30 seconds left both times. Do you watch the games?

                      And again… fitzgerald incredible catch and run gave them the lead. Not a 5 yard slant. Migjt be time for YOU to watch the game.

                      Eli’s team won because of his play. Warners teams LOST because of throes he made. A pick 6 jn a low scoring game. A pick 6 returned 100 yards. Oofa.

                      Its pretty telling you are discrediting eli by hyping warner in tje 2 games he help lose.

                    • Tom

                      You are flat out wrong. For starters, I’m not discrediting Eli…I’m actually on the fence with him in the HOF. My issue with you is Warner.

                      My mind reels at you blaming Warner for a 100 yard pick six…that’s why I ask if you watch football. And yet no mention of the Tyree’s helmet catch, eh? That’s all Eli right? Can’t ignore both friend.

                      You are flat out wrong that Warner “lost” those games. You can’t lose a game and also win the game…he can’t lose a game where he leads a game winning drive at the end and watches as the other QB then leads a game winning drive. That’s why I ask if you’ve seen the he game. It’s just not possible to “lose” the game when you’ve put your team ahead by 3 with a few minutes left.

                      You have no answer for my other examples of QB’s throwing pick sixes or INT’s in the SB do you? Yes, they’re bad, but saying INT = loss, doesn’t hold water. And that’s why I ask if you’ve watched football.

                    • Bob

                      Those pick 6s had huge impacts on the game.

                      And i need to be more clear. No one play ever loses a game.

                    • Tom

                      Don’t get me started on Warner…he’s clutch in the playoffs…he played well enough , when it mattered at the end, to win against the Steelers and the Pats in the SB. I’m undecided about Eli in the HOF, but I’m taking Warner over him.

      • Bob

        Then again, your article in clearly biased so why would you be objective.

  • This gives me a little hope that the voters will get it right.

    • Adam

      It’s a good thing Bob isn’t a voter.

      • Bob

        Top 5 statistical leader
        At keast 2x SB MVP and winner
        Started over 200 consecutive games.
        Man of the year

        Hes getting in.

        • Adam

          Top 5 statistical leader in what?

          • Bob

            I am assuming he will be, my mistake.

      • I don’t know that he’s not. I can’t be certain any of you exists outside of my own imagination.

        • And we don’t need to travel the path toward pugnacity here. Keep it legato gelato.

  • ProfPoobah

    I agree that Eli’s HOF case is based far more on his Super Bowl wins than his stats. I am legitimately asking this question rather than being smart, but to those people citing the outside/weather/stadium issues, how does Eli’s situation compare with those situations in Green Bay and New England, where Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady produced drastically more efficient numbers outdoors?

    In response to the Eli vs. his peers discussion, here’s an interesting one. Highest interception rate, for more-or-less “active” QBs (on a roster as late as 2015). Gives us another metric to examine…

    1) Ryan Fitzpatrick – 3.43
    2) Jay Cutler – 3.25
    3) Eli – 3.15
    4) Carson Palmer – 2.98
    5) Matt Hasselbeck – 2.87
    6) Matt Schaub – 2.75
    7) Michael Vick – 2.74
    8) Ben Roethlisberger – 2.70
    9) Tony Romo – 2.70
    10) Peyton Manning – 2.68

    Others of note: Brees – 2.51, Brady – 1.85, Rodgers – 1.55

    • Bob

      Because eli isnt as good as rodgers or brady. Eli should never be compared to them.

      As far as INT rate, eli always takes chances. Thats no mystery. Its his weakness. But ine stat shouldnt keep you out of canton.

      Plus, he is also excellent at nit taking a sack. There are some qbs you listed who tatger get sacked on 4th down than sacrifice their stats with an incompletion or turnover.

  • In my opinion, which is worth what an opinion’s worth, is that Manning is maybe the fourth or fifth best Giants quarterback and perhaps the seventh or eighth best to ever be a primary passer for the team.

    • Bob

      4th or 5th best. Come on now. Some of these arguments are just silly.

      • When you learn to talk to other commenters like an adult, I’ll give a proper response. Until then, best of luck.

        • Bob

          Haha… so let me guess.

          1. Simms
          2. Tittle
          3. Conerly
          4. Tarkenton
          5. Warner

          The only one who may have been a better giant was tittle. The rest were either worse or way past their prime.

          Eli is a top 5 Giant of all time. People are really undsrvaluing him here.

          • Warner was not a good Giant, but he is one of the ones who was a better QB who happened to play for NYG at some point. I’d rank Danowski over Manning. Probably McBride, too, if we’re being liberal with our definition of “quarterback.”

            You don’t agree. That’s fine.

            And I assume you meant top five Giant QB of all time, because there’s no way he’s a top five Giant player. I’m not sure he was ever even the best player on his own roster.

            • Bob

              Danowski and mcbride? These guys averaged less than 5 completions a game.

              And was warner was not better than eli either. Sorry, your not being objective because warner succeeded when he had superior talent.

              And yes eli is a top 5 giant of all time. If not, he certainly is close. People are really underestimating his importance and how good he has been.

            • Bob

              And mcbride started how many games as a giant QB? Like I said, some if these posts are getting silly.

  • Richie

    FWIW, in the HOF project I’ve been (very slowly) working on, I have Eli Manning with a HOF score of 75. (Jim Plunkett is at 58.)

    Amongst post-merger inducted HOFers, Eli’s score is higher than: Jim Kelly (72), Dan Fouts (72), Joe Namath (69), Ken Stabler (67), Sonny Jurgensen (64), Warren Moon (58) and George Blanda (48).

    (My system is based on All Pros, Pro Bowls, AV, Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins.)

    For reference, Joe Montana is number 1 at 138. Peyton Manning (204) and Tom Brady (158) will pass him when they are inducted.

    • Mark Growcott

      Richie, do you take into account that Montana never threw an INT in his 4 SB appearances while Peyton threw at least 1 in each of his 4 SB appearances? Just an example to highlight that your figures are skewed in Peyton’s favour. Just don’t see how Peyton’s figures are so much higher than everyone else’s. By the way what do you have for Aaron Rodgers, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner and Drew Brees? An interesting study you are undertaking nonetheless.

      • Richie

        Mark, I do not. My intent was to try to objectively rate players based on my interpretation of factors that get players inducted to the HOF. I don’t think the number of interceptions thrown in a winning Super Bowl game matters to HOF voters. But then, the voters only need to vote “yes” or “no”. So, since my system is an effort to come up with a rating to test the likelihood of induction and identify players who should be in but aren’t and players who are in, but maybe shouldn’t be.

        As such, I don’t think it’s quite appropriate to equate my rating with a comparison of two players’ overall abilities and accomplishments – only a comparison of their likely HOF induction.

        Peyton Manning kind of breaks my system for QB’s because of his All Pro selections. Manning is credited with 7 first team all-pros. No other post-merger QB has more than 4. I may need to look at capping the value of AP once a player reaches a certain level.

        If you are interested, here are 3 articles from last year I posted about Centers, Linebackers and Wide Receivers.

        http://www.footballperspective.com/?s=richie+wohlers

        • Mark Growcott

          Thanks for those links, interesting particularly the WR. I know how contentious HOF selections at WR are at present and I eagerly await the Class of 2018 announcement and the subsequent points of discussion.

  • mrh

    Staubach is in the HoF because he was a great player in a short career, and his career was short for reasons outside his control – military service (I guess you could argue that he shouldn’t have gone to Annapolis, that was his choice). Voters gave him credit for a hypothetically longer career, offsetting the lack of voter awards (All-Pro, MVP, etc.). Narrative matters and Staubach’s military service bolstered his narrative. Blanda playing forever bolstered his, Moon having to play in the CFL because of racism bolstered his.

    I’m not making a judgment whether or not these narratives SHOULD or should NOT have made a difference. Just that I think they did.

  • sacramento gold miners

    With 23 TDs, Eli will move past Fran Tarkenton into sixth place in career TD passes. Yes, the game is more tilted towards passing today, but is that the achievement of merely a very good QB? This isn’t a Testaverde or Kreig, whoo played forever and never won anything. Does a very good QB outplay Tom Brady, and beat NE in two Super Bowls?

    • Richie

      Testaverde is an interesting choice. If you look at their Advanced Passing charts on PFR (their rate stats adjusted for era), Testaverde and Eli Manning are pretty similar. (Looking at Testaverde only through age 35.) Manning has been much better (adjusted for era) at avoiding sacks, while Testaverde was better at Yards/Attempt, but they were pretty similar at everything else.

  • Dave Baron

    Since when has AP votes been the determining factor? Eli has always been the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL media. Despite that, he ALREADY has the passing numbers and rings to be in. He won’t be first ballot, but he’ll get in.

    • Bob

      Great post.

  • Counterpoint: Someone has to be the worst player in the Hall of Fame.

  • AA_Hill

    He didn’t just win 2 super bowls. He won 2 super bowls by not only outperforming the greatest quarterback of all time, but won against a dynasty. He beat them twice. Truth is, people continue to argue against Eli because people don’t see him worthy of such a feat. He could have four rings by the time his career has ended and ya’ll would still say he’s not a hall of fame quarterback.

    Eli isn’t elite and never has been, but isolated cases like Eli prove that doesn’t matter in such a context as this one. He’s an inconsistent average quarterback who’s had a hall of fame career. And people can’t reconcile that. They can’t understand how that’s possible. But it is. It’s happened right in front of you. He may not be as good as a lot of his peers or won as many awards, but he’s been good enough in the regular season enough times and elite enough in the playoffs to win two super bowls against a dynasty. Also, stop bringing up Jim Plunkett. His rings didn’t come against a dynasty and he had more interceptions than touchdowns in his career. Stop simplifying the “two rings” argument by bringing up Plunkett. It doesn’t do you any favors to make yourself look ignorant.

    Ever heard of the phrase “exception to the rule”, because that’s what Eli is.

    • Richie

      Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco also beat the dynasty in the playoffs. Are they HOF ers?