Coaching records in close games

Now just hold on. I never said you are what your record in close games says you are.

Which coaches have the best records in close games? That’s a complicated question that either means everything or nothing, depending on whom you ask. But putting aside what it means, what are the actual results?

I defined a close game as one where a team was trailing or leading by three points entering the 4th quarter since 1940.¹

The table below shows the coaching records in close games for all coaches who were head coaches in at least 20 close games. You can use the search box below to search for any individual coach. Note that coaches who coached prior to 1940 are included, but only their performances in games beginning in 1940 are listed below.

Coach	1st Yr	Last Yr	G	W	L	T	Win%	Sort²
Chuck Knox	1973	1994	70	46	23	1	0.664	0.997
Sean Payton	2006	2011	23	17	6	0	0.739	0.989
Dan Reeves	1981	2003	78	49	29	0	0.628	0.988
Buck Shaw	1946	1960	27	18	7	2	0.704	0.986
John Madden	1969	1978	33	22	10	1	0.682	0.982
Marv Levy	1978	1997	53	34	19	0	0.642	0.98
Bill Belichick	1991	2011	52	33	19	0	0.635	0.973
Bill Cowher	1992	2006	58	36	22	0	0.621	0.966
George Allen	1966	1977	40	24	13	3	0.638	0.964
Vince Lombardi	1959	1969	27	17	8	2	0.667	0.962
Bud Grant	1967	1985	64	37	24	3	0.602	0.951
Lou Saban	1960	1976	41	25	15	1	0.622	0.941
Chuck Noll	1969	1991	81	47	33	1	0.586	0.94
Mike Ditka	1982	1999	44	27	17	0	0.614	0.932
Don Shula	1963	1995	95	54	40	1	0.574	0.925
Tom Landry	1960	1988	85	48	35	2	0.576	0.922
Blanton Collier	1963	1970	22	13	7	2	0.636	0.905
John Fox	2002	2011	38	23	15	0	0.605	0.9
Andy Reid	1999	2011	52	30	21	1	0.587	0.894
Joe Gibbs	1981	2007	55	32	23	0	0.582	0.886
Jim Mora	1986	2001	59	34	25	0	0.576	0.877
Mike Sherman	2000	2005	26	16	10	0	0.615	0.876
Marty Schottenheimer	1984	2006	59	33	25	1	0.568	0.851
Tony Dungy	1996	2008	49	28	21	0	0.571	0.839
Buddy Parker	1949	1964	46	25	19	2	0.565	0.814
Dennis Green	1992	2006	44	25	19	0	0.568	0.814
Lovie Smith	2004	2011	31	18	13	0	0.581	0.811
Red Miller	1977	1980	20	12	8	0	0.6	0.808
Ted Marchibroda	1975	1998	48	27	21	0	0.563	0.804
Jimmy Johnson	1989	1999	35	20	15	0	0.571	0.797
Mike Holmgren	1992	2008	56	31	25	0	0.554	0.786
Steve Mariucci	1997	2005	26	15	11	0	0.577	0.779
Bobby Ross	1992	2000	26	15	11	0	0.577	0.779
Sid Gillman	1955	1974	46	24	19	3	0.554	0.774
Dom Capers	1995	2005	36	20	16	0	0.556	0.744
Jim Fassel	1997	2003	26	14	11	1	0.558	0.721
Mike Holovak	1961	1976	20	9	7	4	0.55	0.685
Bum Phillips	1975	1985	45	24	21	0	0.533	0.671
Lindy Infante	1988	1997	22	12	10	0	0.545	0.661
John Robinson	1983	1991	22	12	10	0	0.545	0.661
Ron Meyer	1982	1991	24	13	11	0	0.542	0.655
Jeff Fisher	1994	2010	77	40	37	0	0.519	0.633
Hank Stram	1960	1977	38	18	16	4	0.526	0.632
George Halas	1920	1967	42	20	18	4	0.524	0.625
Ray Perkins	1979	1990	21	11	10	0	0.524	0.584
Mike McCarthy	2006	2011	29	15	14	0	0.517	0.572
Marvin Lewis	2003	2011	32	16	15	1	0.516	0.57
Jack Pardee	1975	1994	39	20	19	0	0.513	0.563
Tom Flores	1979	1994	47	24	23	0	0.511	0.557
Mike Shanahan	1988	2011	59	30	29	0	0.508	0.551
Tom Coughlin	1995	2011	63	32	31	0	0.508	0.55
Raymond Berry	1984	1989	22	11	11	0	0.5	0.5
Dick Vermeil	1976	2005	52	26	26	0	0.5	0.5
George Seifert	1989	2001	34	17	17	0	0.5	0.5
Brian Billick	1999	2007	30	15	15	0	0.5	0.5
Steve Owen	1931	1953	35	15	15	5	0.5	0.5
Herman Edwards	2001	2008	28	14	14	0	0.5	0.5
Wayne Fontes	1988	1996	26	13	13	0	0.5	0.5
Greasy Neale	1941	1950	21	9	9	3	0.5	0.5
Art Shell	1989	2006	28	14	14	0	0.5	0.5
Bill Parcells	1983	2006	82	40	41	1	0.494	0.456
Don Coryell	1973	1986	36	17	18	1	0.486	0.434
Bill Walsh	1979	1988	33	16	17	0	0.485	0.432
Curly Lambeau	1921	1953	24	11	12	1	0.479	0.419
Allie Sherman	1961	1968	24	10	11	3	0.479	0.416
Marion Campbell	1974	1989	26	12	14	0	0.462	0.351
Gary Kubiak	2006	2011	24	11	13	0	0.458	0.345
Buddy Ryan	1986	1995	21	9	11	1	0.452	0.332
Sam Wyche	1984	1995	43	20	23	0	0.465	0.326
Paul Brown	1946	1975	62	27	31	4	0.468	0.301
Joe Kuharich	1952	1968	31	14	17	0	0.452	0.298
Sam Rutigliano	1978	1984	23	10	13	0	0.435	0.271
Weeb Ewbank	1954	1973	66	29	34	3	0.462	0.266
Joe Walton	1983	1989	21	9	12	0	0.429	0.262
Jack Del Rio	2003	2011	36	16	20	0	0.444	0.256
Forrest Gregg	1975	1987	32	14	18	0	0.438	0.243
Jerry Glanville	1985	1993	28	12	16	0	0.429	0.229
Jon Gruden	1998	2008	43	19	24	0	0.442	0.226
Ray Malavasi	1966	1982	24	10	14	0	0.417	0.212
Monte Clark	1976	1984	31	13	18	0	0.419	0.189
Dave Wannstedt	1993	2004	42	18	24	0	0.429	0.18
George Wilson	1957	1969	28	10	15	3	0.411	0.163
Dick Nolan	1968	1980	35	14	20	1	0.414	0.155
Dennis Erickson	1995	2004	26	10	16	0	0.385	0.124
Butch Davis	2001	2004	20	7	13	0	0.35	0.095
Wade Phillips	1985	2010	34	13	21	0	0.382	0.088
Norv Turner	1994	2011	53	21	31	1	0.406	0.084
Bruce Coslet	1990	2000	30	11	19	0	0.367	0.075
John McKay	1976	1984	37	14	23	0	0.378	0.072
Norm Van Brocklin	1961	1974	40	14	24	2	0.375	0.054
Dick Jauron	1999	2009	34	12	22	0	0.353	0.045
Leeman Bennett	1977	1986	30	10	20	0	0.333	0.035
Dan Henning	1983	1991	23	7	16	0	0.304	0.032
Bart Starr	1975	1983	28	9	19	0	0.321	0.031
Tommy Prothro	1971	1978	28	7	20	1	0.268	0.006

Wade, we would have won if you guys didn't blow us out the first three quarters.

Generally speaking, I think this list jives with what a lot of people would have guessed. Vince Lombardi and Marv Levy and Bill Belichick look good, while Norv Turner, Bruce Coslet and Wade Phillips look bad. Of course, that just begs the question: do we think think those men in the latter group are not great head coaches because they failed in close games, or is it that because they lost in close games that we now think that they’re overmatched as first in command?

Originally, I looked at all games that were within one score, but that proven to be even more unfair to the trailing teams. Teams trailing by one score entering the 4th quarter have won only 30% of all games since 1940. Conversely, teams trailing by 3 points have won 39% of the time. [↩]
What is this table sorted by? It's always difficult sorting a list with a large variance in the number of games coached. I used the binomial distribution to compute the likelihood that a fair coin would achieve such results. For example, Sean Payton went 17-6 in close games. There is only a 1.1% chance an unweighted coin would achieve 17 or more successes out of 23 flips. [↩]

Tagged as: Bill Belichick, Bill Parcells, Norv Turner, Vince Lombardi

{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }

Richie June 26, 2012 at 12:13 pm: I’m not sure how much this tells us. The coaches at the top are guys who won a lot of regular season games. Generally, that means they were coaching good teams (either because they had good players or because they coached up their players to be good). So good teams are more likely to be able to win the close games.

How about a comparison between these coaches records in close games and their record in non-close games?

Chase Stuart June 26, 2012 at 12:15 pm: On twitter, someone recommended I break it out by records in games where the team was winning by 3 or less, tied, or losing by 3 or less. That’s probably a good idea, and not that hard. I can also incorporate your suggestion in a future post.

Wintermute June 30, 2012 at 12:11 am: Chase, congratulations on the new site. I just heard about it on The Audible (you should go on that show!).

Regarding this post, I was going to make the exact comment that Richie the first poster made. We need to see how many games Sean Peyton wins and then see how many close-games Sean Peyton wins. That will tell us if some coaches have some innate ability to not blink when the pressure is at maximum versus coaches who just had good teams that won no matter what the situation was. I wonder if there is a coach that was saddled with lousy players, had a poor record, yet was a great coach if the game was close. Hmm.

Chase Stuart June 30, 2012 at 12:20 pm: Wintermute,

While interesting to look at, I’m pretty sure the answers won’t be legitimate. Great teams are great because of how they do in non-close games, not because of how they do in close-games (in terms of predictive performance). Sean Payton has won 65% of his games, and 74% of his close-games. If he won only 50% of his regular games, I don’t think the takeaway is that he’s “more awesome” in close games than before, but rather, that he’s simply just a worse coach (subject to the usual caveats concerning how a coach’s record reflects his ability as a coach).

wsk December 25, 2012 at 1:20 pm: very interesting.
but much like quarterback comebacks–good freaking quarterbacks don’t trail going into the fourth quarter.
good baseball teams aren’t generally behind after seven.
rallying to win is a slightly weighted bi-distro for them.
good teams lead; bad coaches & quarterbacks are losing into the last period.

Coaching records in close games

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