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It’s Christmas in January. Again. Thanks to the tireless work of Mike Kania and the P-F-R staff, PFR has now generated the Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, you can thank Mike or PFR on twitter. (You can still thank Neil, although he has now officially moved on.)

Here’s a list of the top 100 players. AV is also listed for each player on each team’s roster page on PFR (for Seattle, it’s Richard Sherman). You can use the PFR player finder for all sorts of AV-related fun, too. For example, you could see the player with the most AV on your favorite team (for the Jets, it’s Muhammad Wilkerson), or by position (among wide receivers, it’s a three-way tie between Antonio BrownAlshon Jeffery, and Demaryius Thomas), or by age (among those 35 or older, it’s Peyton Manning, or John Abraham for non-quarterbacks; Vontaze Burfict and Luke Kuechly lead the 23-and-younger crowd.)

Here’s a list of the 25 players with an AV of 15+ or greater:

Games Misc
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm G GS PB AP1 AV
1 Peyton Manning 2013 37 1-1 DEN 16 16 1 1 19
2 Richard Sherman 2013 25 5-154 SEA 16 16 1 1 19
3 Louis Vasquez 2013 26 3-78 DEN 16 16 1 1 19
4 Navorro Bowman 2013 25 3-91 SFO 16 16 1 1 18
5 Vontaze Burfict 2013 23 CIN 16 16 1 0 18
6 Luke Kuechly 2013 22 1-9 CAR 16 16 1 1 18
7 Drew Brees 2013 34 2-32 NOR 16 16 1 0 17
8 Jason Peters 2013 31 PHI 16 16 1 1 17
9 Jamaal Charles 2013 27 3-73 KAN 15 15 1 1 16
10 Karlos Dansby 2013 32 2-33 ARI 16 16 0 0 16
11 Cam Newton 2013 24 1-1 CAR 16 16 1 0 16
12 Robert Quinn 2013 23 1-14 STL 16 16 1 1 16
13 Philip Rivers 2013 32 1-4 SDG 16 16 1 0 16
14 Tyron Smith 2013 23 1-9 DAL 16 16 1 0 16
15 J.J. Watt 2013 24 1-11 HOU 16 16 1 1 16
16 Muhammad Wilkerson 2013 24 1-30 NYJ 16 16 0 0 16
17 Russell Wilson 2013 25 3-75 SEA 16 16 1 0 16
18 Matt Forte 2013 28 2-44 CHI 16 16 1 0 15
19 Greg Hardy 2013 25 6-175 CAR 16 13 1 0 15
20 Colin Kaepernick 2013 26 2-36 SFO 16 16 0 0 15
21 Andrew Luck 2013 24 1-1 IND 16 16 0 0 15
22 Robert Mathis 2013 32 5-138 IND 16 16 1 1 15
23 LeSean McCoy 2013 25 2-53 PHI 16 16 1 1 15
24 Patrick Peterson 2013 23 1-5 ARI 16 16 1 1 15
25 Ndamukong Suh 2013 26 1-2 DET 16 16 1 1 15
{ 50 comments }
  • Chase Stuart January 6, 2014, 6:09 pm

    And, since I’m sure someone will ask, no I don’t think anyone at PFR things Louis Vasquez is the 3rd best player in football. AV stands for Approximate Value, and that first word is the key.

    Basically, the computer sees:

    — Denver’s offense scoring a zillion points;
    — None of the other 4 OL receiving any Pro Bowl/All-Pro honors;
    — Vasquez making the Pro Bowl and being a 1st-team All-Pro;
    — Manning being the only other All-Pro on the offense

    So when presented with the greatest scoring machine ever, and only two All-Pros, well, it is assumed that those two players had a pretty big hand in that. Even if one of them is Louis Vasquez.

    The solution would be to make OL less valuable in AV or to make All-Pros less valuable. Well, there are other solutions (and there might be an AV2.0 in the offseason), but that’s what’s causing his rating.

    Reply
    • Topher Doll January 6, 2014, 11:25 pm

      Another thing that helps OL is unlike many other positions, they usually start all 16 games, which in the formula is very valuable (multiplier equal to a defensive touchdown for a front seven defender). I think with the nature of what makes a starter, according to the NFL a starter is who ever is on the field on the first snap of the game, so a player can play 1 snap, as long as it’s the first, and he’s the starter, that would be something to adjust, but that’s bigger than AV. Sadly you can’t give value to it by snap count (which would be massively more effective form of measure field time) because that is hard to find for older games, if not impossible.

      Reply
      • Topher Doll January 6, 2014, 11:33 pm

        For example, in Denver, DE Robert Ayers only “started” 3 games while DE Derek Wolfe “started” 11 but in terms of snaps Ayers played 511 snaps while Wolfe played 566, but Wolfe gets a huge boost in value because he was on the field snap 1 of the game. Injuries played a part in both missing games, but Ayers was impacted more.

        Sorry about the mini-rant haha, love AV and PFR is the boss, little changes that are impossible to fix due to historical issues haha.

        Reply
      • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:03 pm

        Yeah, I think snap counts are a pipe dream historically, although I suppose we could get them for the last few years. Something to think about.

        Reply
        • Topher Doll January 7, 2014, 6:24 pm

          The great thing about AV is the formula is public so I can tweak it myself, but it will lack the legitimacy of PFR making the change.

          Reply
    • Kibbles January 7, 2014, 2:12 pm

      With all of that in mind coming into this post, I was actually shocked Peyton only had 19 AV. I mean, I didn’t think he was going to challenge Elroy Hirsch’s 33 AV 1951 season (also, did everyone know Elroy Hirsch had 33 AV in 1951? Because Elroy Hirsch had 33 AV in 1951. Holy hell.) I did think he’d give Tom Brady’s 24 AV from 2007 a run for its money. Did New England just have a much larger share of AV to hand out, or did Manning wind up getting a smaller slice of it than Brady for some reason?

      Reply
      • Richie January 7, 2014, 4:50 pm

        It looks like the AV points are calculated based on Offensive Points Per Estimated Drive. Denver had 3.04 OPPED and New England had 3.55 OPPED. Then the OPPED is compared to league average. I don’t feel like calculating OPPED for the leagues. But I have to imagine they are pretty similar. New England’s OPPED is 16% higher than Denver’s. Brady’s AV is 26% higher than Manning’s.

        It looks like New England was slightly more run-heavy than Denver (which should hurt Brady’s AV).

        So the rest of the difference between Brady and Manning must come from the league average adjustments in OPPED and Rush-Pass ratio. I would assume that the league OPPED is a little higher in 2013 and the Rush-Pass ratio is a little lower.

        Reply
        • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:14 pm

          That sounds right to me, Richie. One flaw in OPPED is we don’t have historical 4th down failure numbers. Denver had only 1, while NE had 8! So that would bump DEN’s number of drives to 189, and NE’s to 158, which would narrow the gap (Denver would be at 3.03 OPPED, NE at 3.37). I suspect the league average adjustment would account for the rest of the difference. I will ping Mike and see if we can incorporate failed 4th downs in the next iteration of OPPED, because we do have that data back to 1997.

          Reply
      • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:06 pm

        33!! That is insane.

        Reply
        • Kibbles January 9, 2014, 2:38 pm

          I know, right! I never even realized it was possible to top 25 AV. OJ Simpson’s 1975? 25 AV. Jim Brown? Four years above 20 AV, but none higher than 23. Tom Brady 2007? 24 AV. Peyton Manning 2004 and Dan Marino 1984? 21 AV. Marshall Faulk 1999? 25 AV. Wes Chandler in the strike-shortened 1982 or Jerry Rice in the strike-shortened 1987 seasons? 22 and 23 AV, respectively. In 2006, Tomlinson finally managed to break AV, pushing his way all the way up to 26. He remains the only player since 1958 to exceed the 25 AV mark.

          Those crazy AV performances were more common in the earliest years tracked (the 25-point mark got broken at least 7 times in the first 9 seasons we have AV data for, and once since), but Elroy Hirsch’s scale-breaking 33 points of AV still look like a typo every time I see them. Also, apparently some guy named Harlon Hill had 31 points of AV for the Bears in 1956 for reasons that sort of elude me.

          Reply
          • Richie January 9, 2014, 5:10 pm

            Don’t forget about Cloyce Box and his 28 AV in 1952. He also had 21 AV in 1950. (I have never heard of him before today.)

            Reply
          • Richie January 9, 2014, 5:39 pm

            Hirsch had 1495 receiving yards – which was more than 3 TEAMS had passing yards. For somebody to outperform 16% of the league in 2013, they would have to catch about 3,200 receiving yards.

            The 1951 Rams had 180 AV amongst its offensive players.
            The 2013 Broncos had 153 AV amongst its offensive players.

            Those Rams had 3 offensive Pro Bowlers (Hirsch, Waterfield and Towler) and only Hirsch was an All-Pro. It looks like the Rams had the best offense in the league, by a pretty good margin (yards, points, SRS) and only had those 3 guys get awards in a 12-team league?

            It looks like 12 offensive linemen were named All-Pro (including 4 centers!?!?) that year, but none from the best offensive team in the league. All 5 of the Rams’ offensive linemen are listed as rookies. That must be part of the problem with them not getting Pro Bowl or All-Pro nods.

            When you look at all the top AV seasons that come from the 1950’s, I think we can see that the AV formula just breaks down.

            The Rams had a player named Vitamin Smith.

            Reply
            • Archer January 13, 2014, 6:35 pm

              Small sample size.
              Much like Advanced Passing numbers from the first couple of seasons (1936 onwards).
              One can only imagine what would Don Hutson’s 1942 or Benny Friedman’s 1929 AV would look like – probably above 40…

              Reply
    • Richie January 7, 2014, 4:25 pm

      Is it possible he really is that good?

      Reply
      • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:04 pm

        Vasquez? No, I don’t think so.

        Reply
        • Richie January 7, 2014, 5:09 pm

          Most of the guys on the list of top AV by tackles are thought of as great tackles. There are a few outliers like Keith Fahnhorst. Maybe Vasquez is good, and we just don’t know it yet. (I have no ability to evaluate linemen.)

          Reply
          • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:23 pm

            I should be more clear: Yes, it’s possible Vasquez is as good as this thinks he is. No, I would not think that his score in this system is a reason to think he’s as good as this thinks he is. Vasquez could be as excellent as he was this year, and if he did it on the Jets, his AV would be a low lower (unless, of course, you think Vasquez would cause the Jets offense to be awesome and he would still be named a 1AP).

            Reply
      • Topher Doll January 7, 2014, 6:25 pm

        As a Denver writer I can say he’s having a great season, but not that good.

        Reply
    • James January 8, 2014, 8:07 pm

      “there might be an AV2.0 in the offseason”

      Can this be one of those long, multi-part posts where you talk about your ideas and we critique and add ours? I’d have some thoughts on AV I’d like to share, such as I think it’s about time we switched from points scored to expected points added for where the data is available. It’s silly that a bad kicker season can lower the AV of the offense.

      Reply
  • DL January 6, 2014, 6:25 pm

    Your WR query is looking at 2012. For 2013, it’s Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, and Demaryius Thomas, with 14 AV apiece.

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart January 6, 2014, 6:34 pm

      Good catch; I’ve updated the post. This continues the long-running theme of me messing up these posts.

      Reply
  • AS January 6, 2014, 7:09 pm

    Curious that Josh Gordon and Calvin Johnson (probably the consensus two best WRs this season) aren’t higher. I assume Gordon is dragged down by Cleveland’s poor offense, but Megatron?

    Reply
    • Neil Paine January 7, 2014, 12:04 pm

      I think it has to do with Detroit only having 104 offensive AV points to give out. Here are the leading AV WRs, along with their % of team yds and how many AV pts their offensive could hand out:

      +------------------+-----+-----+-----+----+----+-------------+-----------+----+
      |      Player      | Age | Tm  | Lg  | G  | GS | % of Tm Yds | Tm Off AV | AV |
      +------------------+-----+-----+-----+----+----+-------------+-----------+----+
      | Antonio Brown    |  25 | PIT | NFL | 16 | 14 | 34.8%       |       103 | 14 |
      | Alshon Jeffery   |  23 | CHI | NFL | 16 | 14 | 31.9%       |       118 | 14 |
      | Demaryius Thomas |  26 | DEN | NFL | 16 | 16 | 25.7%       |       151 | 14 |
      | Eric Decker      |  26 | DEN | NFL | 16 | 16 | 23.1%       |       151 | 13 |
      | A.J. Green       |  25 | CIN | NFL | 16 | 16 | 33.0%       |       110 | 13 |
      | Anquan Boldin    |  33 | SFO | NFL | 16 | 16 | 36.7%       |       107 | 12 |
      | Dez Bryant       |  25 | DAL | NFL | 16 | 16 | 29.2%       |       116 | 12 |
      | Calvin Johnson   |  28 | DET | NFL | 14 | 14 | 32.1%       |       104 | 12 |
      | Brandon Marshall |  29 | CHI | NFL | 16 | 16 | 29.1%       |       118 | 12 |
      | Josh Gordon      |  22 | CLE | NFL | 14 | 14 | 37.6%       |        80 | 11 |
      | DeSean Jackson   |  27 | PHI | NFL | 16 | 16 | 30.2%       |       118 | 11 |
      | Jordy Nelson     |  28 | GNB | NFL | 16 | 16 | 29.0%       |       117 | 11 |
      | Keenan Allen     |  21 | SDG | NFL | 15 | 14 | 23.4%       |       125 | 10 |
      | Julian Edelman   |  27 | NWE | NFL | 16 | 11 | 24.3%       |       116 | 10 |
      | T.Y. Hilton      |  24 | IND | NFL | 16 | 10 | 27.4%       |       110 | 10 |
      | Vincent Jackson  |  30 | TAM | NFL | 16 | 16 | 38.5%       |        80 | 10 |
      | Marques Colston  |  30 | NOR | NFL | 15 | 11 | 18.3%       |       129 |  9 |
      | Harry Douglas    |  29 | ATL | NFL | 16 | 11 | 23.5%       |       102 |  9 |
      | Pierre Garcon    |  27 | WAS | NFL | 16 | 16 | 33.2%       |        84 |  9 |
      | Golden Tate      |  25 | SEA | NFL | 16 | 13 | 25.6%       |       113 |  9 |
      | Kendall Wright   |  24 | TEN | NFL | 16 | 12 | 29.1%       |       100 |  9 |
      +------------------+-----+-----+-----+----+----+-------------+-----------+----+

      CJ had 32% of the yards in a 104 offense; by contrast, Antonio Brown played in a 103 offense but had nearly 35% of their yards. The other leaders, like Thomas & Decker, had a much lower % of the yards but played in an offense that had 151 AV points (!) to hand out. And poor Josh Gordon racked up almost 38% of the Browns’ yards, but played in an 80 offense.

      Reply
      • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:24 pm

        Thanks for posting that, Neil.

        Reply
  • AS January 6, 2014, 7:18 pm

    In other news, the top 10 players on the Bears by AV are all on offense, including all 5 OL and both Cutler and McCown. Hard to argue with that, given the relative performance of the offense and defense this year (and the injuries to basically every perennial defensive star), but I am going to go out on a limb and guess that this is the first time that has ever happened for the Bears.

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:30 pm

      Yeah, I think that’s a pretty safe bet.

      Reply
  • Wes January 6, 2014, 8:02 pm

    I imagine it wouldn’t be much, but I wonder how much AV would change if pass/run identity was used for distributing offensive value instead of rushing yards to total yards ratio.

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:30 pm

      Interesting. Something to think about in the offseason. Thanks, Wes.

      Reply
  • Jason Slater January 7, 2014, 5:47 am

    I love AV.. I love it to the point I even calculate it for every team and player for every season I play in my made up QB career in Madden. Lol… Love the articles, hypotheticals you guys throw out there, in-depth insight and data you guys dump on the daily.Keep up the great work!

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:26 pm

      Thanks, Jason!

      Reply
  • JeremyDe January 7, 2014, 12:40 pm

    Can someone have a negative AV?

    I queried my pathetic Redskins to see how horrible their team offense AV was this year, and Kirk Cousins had a -2 AV. I didn’t think that was possible. I tried to query using the Play Index and got an error. Any ideas?

    Reply
    • Shattenjager January 7, 2014, 1:46 pm

      It looks like that has happened 111 times in history: http://pfref.com/tiny/phAvE

      (That search obviously also includes all the 0 AVs in history; but, as you already discovered, putting -1 in that search field leads to an error. It does show all of the negatives first.)

      Ryan Lindley and John Skelton managed to both put up negatives for the Cardinals in 2012. They were . . . incredible.

      Reply
      • JeremyDe January 7, 2014, 2:09 pm

        Thanks SJ. I actually ran that same query, but forgot to change the sort order to Ascending, so I just saw a long list of 0’s. I didn’t think it was possible to have a negative AV. Not sure who I feel worse for… Dan Pastorini for having the worst AV in history (-6 for the 81 Rams) or Happy Feller for getting a -2 in 2 of his 3 year NFL career.

        Reply
        • Shattenjager January 7, 2014, 3:09 pm

          I hadn’t realized it was possible, either. Interestingly, there is one Hall of Famer who managed it (Joe Namath) and another likely Hall of Famer (Eli Manning) who also did, though they were both only at -1, nowhere near Pastorini’s low-water mark.

          Reply
          • Richie January 7, 2014, 5:00 pm

            Jim Plunkett’s gonna be pissed if Eli Manning makes it.

            Reply
          • JeremyDe January 7, 2014, 5:19 pm

            Ouch. I missed Namath when I looked before. Very bad year for him.

            Not sure about Eli making it to the Hall. 2 rings, ton of yards and TDs, but 0 All Pro, only 3 Pro Bowl in 9 years, and a good number of picks (for his era). If PFR comparables are to be believed…the fact that his career comparables are David Garrard, Jake Delhomme, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, Stan Humphries, Tony Romo, Aaron Brooks, Daryle Lamonica, and Doug Williams is a bit damning.

            Reply
            • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:44 pm

              Eli was at 107 last year, and I suspect he won’t be any higher this year (although I may tweak the methodology): http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-qb-of-all-time-iv-part-ii-career-rankings/

              Good quarterback, great quarterback for strings of games, bad quarterbacks for other long stretches. Not sure he’s even in the discussion yet. By the time he’s eligible for the HOF, SB46 will have been about 12 years in the past and we will think of it the way we think of say, Brad Johnson’s Super Bowl (in terms of recency, not value). In other words, that’s a long time away. Without another SB or some monster years, hard to say he’ll be inducted.

              Reply
            • Shattenjager January 7, 2014, 11:13 pm

              I highly doubt that Manning will deserve to get in, but he’s been durable enough that I’m betting he turns out to be over 50 000 passing yards in his career, which will still rank in the top ten all-time. That, plus the rings, plus his last name makes it seem likely to me that he gets in anyway.

              However, I am by no means an expert on what tends to make a player a Hall of Famer. Chase’s opinion on the matter should probably carry approximately 1000 times as much weight as mine. :)

              Reply
              • JeremyDe January 8, 2014, 6:20 pm

                I had to wait on some programs to finish at work, so not having anything better to do at the time, I did a Keltner on Eli. I know Chase (or a number of people) could do a much better job of this. The questions definitely need to be altered more than I did for the differences between the sports, but that’s for another day. Also, thinking the NFL version should be called a Testaverde List (or a Testy, for those of us with the sense of humor of 12 year old boys). Or maybe not.

                1.Was he ever regarded as the best player in the NFL? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in the NFL? No, not really.
                2.Was he the best player on his team? Arguably yes. AV may be a flawed way to look at it, but he had the highest AV in 2009, 2011, and 2012 for the Giants. In 2005-2007 and 2010, he was third, and he was fifth in 2008 & 2013. The years he was beaten out, he was close to the top, and it was usually by Tiki Barber, Osi Umenyiora, Plaxico Burress, Chris Snee, or Justin Tuck.
                3.Was he the best player in the NFL, or at least his conference, at his position? No. Peyton. Brady. Brees. Rodgers. Favre. Carson Palmer back in the early 2000’s. Most years, I’d wager he wouldn’t make the top 3 in his conference, must less, best in the league.
                4.Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Yes. 5 playoffs in 9 years as a 16-game starter. Twice missing out by a game or tiebreaker. 8-3 playoff record + 2 super bowl wins with a 7-1 record as an underdog in the playoffs, which were all road games.
                5.Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime? Can’t be answered yet. He’s 32, just completed his 9th consecutive season of starting all 16 games, and he’s thrown for 3800+ yards, and 18+ TDs in each of the last 5, which isn’t shabby.
                6.Is he the very best player in the NFL history who is not in the Hall of Fame? No. Personally, I’d take at least 15 of the 25 semifinalist for the 2014 NFL class over him on split-second decisions alone.
                7.Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame? Using PFR’s comparables, then no. His top 5 career comparables are David Garrard, Jake Delhomme, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, and Chad Pennington. That would be a Hall of Good-to-Great, but not the HoF.
                8.Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? Not yet, but arguably close. Currently he is 19th in career passing yardage and 23rd in career TD passes. 11 of the top 13 in yards are/will be in the Hall, and 16 of 22 in TDs are/will be in. If he can put together 3-4 more years of 3800+ yards, 25+ TDs, and keep the interceptions down, it would certainly help his case, but he’s not there yet.
                9.Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? The 7-1 underdog/road playoff history, but that’s about it. He’s played brilliantly in some stretches, and poorly in others. He’s been in the top 10 in both TDs and picks for 7 years, but only once in passer ratings (which i understand is a poor measure. His best QBR is 66.9 in 2012, which was good for 9th that year).
                10.Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in? There’s half a dozen QBs right now, who have better applications without having to think about it or do any research.
                11.How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? This isn’t as relevant as it is in baseball where each writer is voting, and ranking, 10 players. The way the current system is with 50 writers giving 1 name for their MVP, Eli has never garnered a vote.
                12.How many All-Pro-type seasons did he have? How many Pro Bowls did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame? 0 All Pro. 3 Pro Bowls as a reserve or alternate. Not sure how to query the last question.
                13.If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the Super Bowl? Likely or not, it happened twice.
                14.What impact did the player have on the NFL history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Not a real major impact. He forced the Manning-Rivers trade before he entered the league. He’s a 2-time Super Bowl winning QB in the biggest NFL market. His Giants have been in the playoffs or playoff hunt for 7 of his 9 seasons. He was part of one of the greatest Sportscenter commercials of all-time. He was a solid-to-very good QB for a long period of time. He’s the younger brother of one of (unarguably) the top 5 QBs of all-time, and at times a very good QB in his own right…but he’s not making the Hall.

                Reply
                • James January 8, 2014, 8:04 pm

                  I agree he’s not making the Hall on his current career trajectory, but he does have one precedent, which I’ll get to. You said you didn’t know how to query “Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?” but I’ve got your back.

                  Out of approximately 35 HOF-eligible players that played most of their careers after 1960 with 2-5 Pro Bowls, only 4 are in the HOF. Two are huge YES answers to “Impact on NFL History?” (among others) in Bart Starr and Jim Kelly as the on-the-field faces of the Lombardi-era Packers and the Run-and-Shoot Bills. Another is the anti-Eli in almost every way: Joe Namath. Seriously, think about this for a bit. Complete opposites in personality, Namath was injured for most of his prime years while Eli hasn’t missed a start in his career, one’s most famous moment is a guarantee and the other’s is a catch off a helmet.

                  But if there’s one player Eli can emulate to the HOF it’s Terry Bradshaw. Both were downright bad for the first 4-5 years of their careers and won a SB mostly through luck and teammates. Both also sprung to life after the first SB win and became above average to Pro Bowl caliber players, actually leading their teams to another SB win at age 30. Now Bradshaw continued to play at a high level before retiring after his age 34 season (with 4 SB wins to boot) while Eli took his age 32 season off, but if he rebounds for a few years and lucks into another solid playoff run or two I think he’ll follow Bradshaw’s lead.

                  As a side note, Warner (4 PBs) and McNabb (6) will be interesting HOF test cases. I think Warner is in with his MVPs and SB appearances with two different teams, but I think McNabb is destined for the Hall of Very Good.

                  Reply
                  • JeremyDe January 9, 2014, 12:05 am

                    Agreed on most counts, but I think he’ll need 2-3 seasons of play superior to what he’s done so far, plus at least one more super bowl run (an appearance if not another ring) to make it. Don’t think that will happen though.

                    Completely agree on Warner & McNabb. Warner yes, McNabb no.

                    Reply
                • Shattenjager January 8, 2014, 11:34 pm

                  Is the Keltner list meant to guess whether a player will get in or whether a player should get in? I thought it was the latter.

                  Reply
                  • JeremyDe January 9, 2014, 12:36 am

                    You are correct in that it is the latter. It’s whether a player is worthy to get in. But it is also typically done after retirement when you can weigh everything in the player’s career. In this case, since his career has been quite substantial for a football player (i imagine the number of 10+ year player is under 5% of the NFL historical populace), but could still last another 5-7 years, I thought it could be used as an estimate at least. Of course, he could also improve his candidacy in the remainder of his career, but as it stands now, I don’t think he makes to semifinalist status in the hall induction process.

                    Granted, I could be very wrong about that too.

                    Reply
                    • Shattenjager January 9, 2014, 3:47 am

                      It just feels to me like we’re talking past each other, because I don’t think there’s any realistic chance that Eli Manning will deserve to get into the Hall of Fame. I think he’s got a good chance of getting in nonetheless. I also should say that by “likely” I’m meaning like a 55% chance of getting in (“Likely” may be too strong of a word and maybe I should have said “possible” instead.), not that he’s going to be a slam dunk.

                      Really, it’s probably silly to try to forecast what the NFL HOF voters will be doing in ~12-18 years anyway. :)

          • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:40 pm

            It is really impressive to get negative AV. It takes a special kind of man, that’s for sure.

            Reply
            • Archer January 13, 2014, 6:22 pm

              I find it staggering that both Kim McQuilken and Randy Hedberg had positive AV in 1974-76 and 1977 respectively. Sure it was at the height of the deadball era but even so.

              McQuilken had three seasons with negative fantasy points and Hedberg surely holds the record with -7 for his lone season. I don’t think top/bottom fantasy seasons are searchable (why not?) but from what I’ve seen having a negative fantasy total is even rarer than a negative AV.

              Reply
  • Richie January 7, 2014, 4:23 pm

    8 AV for Dannell Ellerbe? That guy was invisible in the fraction of Dolphins plays I got to see this year.

    Reply
    • Chase Stuart January 7, 2014, 5:21 pm

      15 starts, no other linebackers of note, solid defense? 8 is pretty much what you would expect for an inside linebacker who starts all year on a team like Miami.

      Reply
  • Archer January 16, 2014, 10:44 pm

    There was quite a debate here over the highest AV seasons from the 1950s (Hirsch’s 33 AV in 1951 and so on), with Kibbles noting that 7 of the top 8 AV marks have been posted from 1950 to 1958, with LT’s 2006 the only other season over 25 AV.

    Well, it seems a rather drastic change have been made (if it was announced somewhere in SR, I didn’t see it) – currently AV only appears starting from 1960 instead of 1950, so Tomlinson now holds the top mark for a single season!

    Reply

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