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Checkdowns: Bill Barnwell on Future Hall of Famers

Is there exactly one future HOFer here?

Is there exactly one future HOFer here?

I’m short on time today, but here’s a very fun article courtesy of Bill Barnwell.

There are many interesting tidbits in there, so please feel free to discuss whatever you like in the comments. One thing that stuck out to me was that Barnwell had Odell Beckham Jr. with a slightly higher chance of making the Hall of Fame than Eli Manning. Note that Barnwell’s article is focusing on the “will he” be a Hall of Famer, not the “will he deserve to be” a HOFer. Such distinction is, of course, important.

From one statistical standpoint, Manning is far from a HOFer. Brad Oremland ranked Manning in his top 60, but no higher:

Eli Manning played great in his two Super Bowl appearances, but the other 170 games of his career are pretty close to average. He’s not accurate, he’s inconsistent, and his turnover rate is unacceptable in modern football. Over the past 10 seasons, Eli committed 213 turnovers, by far the most in the NFL. Drew Brees is next (184), and no one else is within 50 of Eli. Manning brought his A-game in the two most important games of his career, and that’s something we should consider when ranking him, but I don’t believe he has a special clutch “ability” other players lack. Despite his “winner” reputation, Manning’s Giants have made the playoffs in only five of his 11 seasons [now 5 of 12], and they’ve lost their first playoff game more often than they’ve won (2-3). Eli is a good player, but he’s not Bart Starr.

Still, Eli feels like he has a decent chance of actually making it to Canton, which is the question here. Beckham? He’s been insanely productive through two seasons, but it’s just two seasons. It feels odd to say he has a higher HOF chance than Eli Manning after two years. Then again, Manning’s entire HOF argument is based on two seasons, so well…. maybe not.

What do you think?

  • Anders

    No way Eli should get in.

    I also think he will have a tough time to get in. Depending on when he retires, he might retire around the same time as Rodgers and Big Ben. Just right now we have Peyton, Brady, Rodgers and Brees as almost 100% locks for the HoF. Add Big Ben and potential Rivers and Palmers and there is suddenly a quite a few QBs to get in.

    There might also not be 1 QB per year, so it might take too long and the younger guys like Wilson and Newton begins to inch closer to retirement.

    • And OBJ?

      • sacramento gold miners

        OBJ needs a ton of work before his career is HOF worthy. And while Eli isn’t Bart Starr, he’s earned a place in Canton. Manning will finish his career as the Giants all time passing leader, and that will carry more weight than many other franchises. His postseason success is very impressive, taking down a favored Patriots team twice in a Super Bowl. Also, in 2007, beating Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Green Bay on the road enroute to the title.

        Sure, he’s been inconsistent at times, but that can be said of other HOF quarterbacks. Having OBJ as a receiver should continue to help late in his career. Not an inner circle QB by any means, but has done enough. Yes, other past and current QBs have put up flashier numbers, but have come up short when it mattered most.

        • Adam

          The Giants don’t sniff a championship without dominant performances from their pass rush. That’s enough to put Eli in the HoF?

          • sacramento gold miners

            Yes, the Giants defense played much better in their second game against New England, but Manning also outplayed Tom Brady on the biggest stage. David Tyree’s catch doesn’t happen without Manning somehow avoiding the sack. He also finished the game-winning drive with a TD pass. I just can’t minimize Eli’s play because another part of their team played well.

            Later, Manning also delivered in the second SB against New England. I don’t think Eli will be a first ballot selection, but Canton is inevitable, in my opinion.

            • Yazan Gable

              If the difference between Eli being a Hall of Famer is a dropped Welker pass and an improbable catch from David Tyree how is he really deserving?

              • sacramento gold miners

                I get what you’re saying, but isn’t it true how the nature of the postseason often comes down to a single play between two evenly matched clubs? Manning already had a strong postseason just to get the Giants into position to win those games, and in SB 42, still had to punch the ball into the end zone.

      • Josh Sanford

        Too early in his career to put him at 50%. Way too early. The Hall undervalues WRs. He is locked in a career-long comparison to some of the most exciting, gifted and physically dominant WRs to ever come through the league as a group. Odds are, he is going to lose his long-term buddy QB when he is about 26, and then suffer through a bunch of duds at QB for a long time–because he will get a fat long term deal that will keep him an NYG for the best parts of his career. I cannot overstate how much I love watching him play. But I cannot put him higher than 19% for the HOF right now.

      • Anders

        Way too early imo.

        If he keeps it up for 8-10 more years yes, but there is already a deadlock at WR (they are getting out of it).

        The HoF imo still need Torry Holt, TO, Jimmy Smith and soon Steve Smith, Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.

        He will also fight Brown, Allen Robinson, Cooper etc. once he retires.

    • Josh Sanford

      The problem for me, with Eli, is that no matter how hard I try, I cannot forget that he is Peyton’s kid brother. And I guess it makes me think of him as a joke? His dominance is non-existent compared to his brother’s. That he won two SBs is something for which Brady will answer to God. But I just don’t get it. To me, Eli is as healthy and as average as you could ever want in a QB.

    • James

      I think it will be much harder for Eli (and his proponents) to make a case after Favre, Peyton, and Brady are enshrined and significantly raise the standards of HOF QBs. He’d then be battling for a spot against Brees, Palmer, and Roethlisberger which will create a bit of a backlog that should keep him out for a while. By then the successes of the current Newton/Wilson/Luck generation may completely overshadowed his limited accomplishments.

  • sunrise089

    Eli shouldn’t get in (though nether should Calvin Johnson so who knows). But, I’d absolutely take Eli over Beckham as of right now. There’s a lot that can go wrong between now and having a WR HOF resume, so I’ll stick with Eli who’s resume gives him, what, 75% of a likely selectee? Versus 25% optimistically for Beckham?

    Also ESPN can be terrible sometimes. I have a bookmark set to search for Barnwell on the ESPN main page which I check every day. According to it his last article came out on Monday. Good thing I can find their content on this free third party site, because they seem to have little interest in letting me find it otherwise.

    • It’s never ceased to amaze me how poorly-organized ESPN’s site is for a content provider of its size owned by a company of the size and power of Disney. I’ve had insider for years just to read Keith Law (and now Barnwell) and the best way to find what I want is to scroll through his Twitter feed for links.

  • As you know, I am anti Eli in the Hall of Fame. However, I think it’s naive to think he won’t get in eventually, given how enamored folks are with rings, counting stats, big moments, and longevity. He checks all those boxes, as well as the “could you tell the story of the league…” I think that’s a dumb box, but I have to acknowledge it exists. Also Eli doesn’t need to do much more to bolster whatever case he already has for Canton. Beckham, on the other hand, has to continue to play well and do so for a long time. Health isn’t a guarantee, and it is the main reason I think OBJ’s chances are lower than Eli’s.

    • Also, I’m anti several HOF members in the HOF too. This is not Eli-specific. I am a small Hall guy, despite having published an article on this very site arguing for HOF expansion.

      • Adam

        I’m a small Hall guy, too. It bothers me that we dilute the legacy of the true legends by lumping them in with the merely very good. My biggest issue with the Hall is its obsession with players from dynasty teams. For example, I don’t think a single offensive player from the Steelers deserves to be in Canton.

        • Mike Webster is a slam dunk Hall of Famer. With Hein, Otto, and Stephenson, Webster is on the shortlist of greatest centers in history.

          • Adam

            I left out two very important words : “skill position”

            • sacramento gold miners

              So one of the best teams in NFL history with many strong offensive games by those skill players against other standout teams during that era falls short of Canton? Franco was roughly a top five rusher at the time of his requirement, and Bradshaw’s early struggles are reflected in the total stats. If you missed the 70s, have you seen the Super Bowl replays?

              • Adam

                The Steelers dominance in the 70’s was primarily driven by their defense. Yes the offense was highly effective in `78 and `79, but that’s only two seasons. How many seasons was Bradshaw a truly great player? Not very many, IMO. Same for Stallworth, Swann, Bettis, Ward, and Roethlisberger. I know you place heavy emphasis on postseason performance, but the main reason these guys had so many playoff opportunities is because of the defense getting them there. The SB teams of `74, `75, `05, and `08 would not have made it very far if their offenses had to carry mediocre defenses.

                • sacramento gold miners

                  We’re going to have to agree to disagree here. A great defense can only carry a team so far, and the 1985 Bears and 2000 Ravens are examples to the extreme. The 70s Steelers could not have been as dominant without those HOF players on offense. Very rarely in the regular season did they ever have to launch a fourth quarter comeback during that timespan.

                  The 2005 and 2008 Steelers certainly did not have that kind of offensive firepower, the 08 club may have had the worst offensive line of any SB champion. But you still don’t win consistently without excellence at the QB position and elsewhere. Big Ben’s regular season career stats are very impressive, despite the fact he’s on pace to be the most sacked QB in NFL history.

                  • Roethlisberger is 133 sacks shy of Tarkenton’s record. Todd Haley might keep him from breaking it, but it’s definitely within reach.

            • I’m cool with Harris too. Nine Pro Bowls, a first team All Pro, 100 touchdowns, over 14400 yards from scrimmage, and ranked second in history in rushing yards. And that’s before considering his postseason accomplishments.

              • Adam

                I guess I’m looking at this retroactively instead of considering the players’ stature at the time of their retirement. In that context, a player who ranks 13th all time in rushing yards is a borderline candidate for a small Hall, even accounting for his postseason accomplishments. I don’t have a problem with Harris being in Canton, but he’s not someone whom I feel needs to be there, either.

                • sacramento gold miners

                  I think we should always consider HOF candidates in the context of the era, and that’s why I also support Randy Gradischar and L.C. Greenwood on the defensive side of the ball. Great offensive players of the past didn’t enjoy all the benefits of all the rules changes, in Franco’s era, horse collar tackles were fairly common.

  • JeremyDeShetler

    Here’s the players with percentages in the order that they are listed in the article. All 1-to-10% players are listed as 10 for brevity.

    10 DT Calais Campbell, Arz
    10 S Tyrann Mathieu, Arz
    10 QB Carson Palmer, Arz
    20 DE Chandler Jones, Arz
    70 CB Patrick Peterson, Arz
    95 WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arz

    10 QB Matt Ryan, Atl
    10 CB Desmond Trufant, Atl
    35 WR Julio Jones, Atl
    40 DE Dwight Freeney, Atl

    10 QB Joe Flacco, Bal
    10 LB Elvis Dumervil, Bal
    10 G Marshal Yanda, Bal
    10 S Eric Weddle, Bal
    30 LB Terrell Suggs, Bal
    60 WR Steve Smith, Bal

    10 RB LeSean McCoy, Buf
    10 DT Kyle Williams, Buf
    15 DT Marcell Dareus, Buf

    10 TE Greg Olsen, Car
    10 C Ryan Kalil, Car
    65 QB Cam Newton, Car
    85 LB Luke Kuechly, Car

    10 WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi
    20 G Kyle Long, Chi

    10 QB Andy Dalton, Cin
    10 T Andrew Whitworth, Cin
    80 WR AJ Green, Cin

    10 CB Joe Haden, Cle
    99 T Joe Thomas, Cle

    10 QB Tony Romo, Dal
    10 G Zack Martin, Dal
    25 WR Dez Bryant, Dal
    35 T Tyron Smith, Dal
    95 TE Jason Witten, Dal

    10 CB Aqib Talib, Den
    10 CB Chris Harris Jr, Den
    35 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den
    75 LB Von Miller, Den
    98 DE DeMarcus Ware, Den

    10 DE Ezekiel Ansah, Det
    10 DT Haloti Ngata, Det
    10 QB Matthew Stafford, Det
    40 WR Anquan Boldin, Det

    10 WR Jordy Nelson, GBP
    10 G Josh Sitton, GBP
    80 LB Clay Matthews, GBP
    80 LB Julius Peppers, GBP
    100 QB Aaron Rodgers, GBP

    10 DT Vince Wilfork, Hou
    10 T Duane Brown, Hou
    100 DE JJ Watt, Hou

    10 WR TY Hilton, Ind
    10 CB Vontae Davis, Ind
    10 LB Robert Mathis, Ind
    55 QB Andrew Luck, Ind
    75 K Adam Vinatieri, Ind

    10 WR Allen Robinson, Jax

    10 DT Dontari Poe, KC
    25 LB Justin Houston, KC
    35 S Eric Berry, KC

    20 DE Robert Quinn, Ram
    30 DT Aaron Donald, Ram

    10 C Mike Pouncey, Mia
    10 DE Cameron Wake, Mia
    10 DE Mario Williams, Mia
    75 DT Ndamukong Suh, Mia

    10 S Harrison Smith, Min
    99 RB Adrian Peterson, Min

    10 LB Jamie Collins, NEP
    10 LB Dont’a Hightower, NEP
    10 K Stephen Gostkowski, NEP
    10 CB Devin McCourty, NEP
    75 TE Rob Gronkowski, NEP
    100 QB Tom Brady, NEP

    100 QB Drew Brees, NOS

    40 QB Eli Manning, NYG
    50 WR Odell Beckham, NYG

    10 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ
    10 DL Muhammad Wilkerson, NYJ
    10 DT Sheldon Richardson, NYJ
    30 C Nick Mangold, NYJ
    95 CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ

    25 DE Khalil Mack, Oak

    10 DE Fletcher Cox, Phi
    50 T Jason Peters, Phi

    10 RB Le’veon Bell, Pit
    10 G David DeCastro, Pit
    25 LB James Harrison, Pit
    35 C Maurkice Pouncey, Pit
    80 WR Antonio Brown, Pit
    90 QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit

    10 WR Keenan Allen, SD
    35 QB Philip Rivers, SD
    70 TE Antonio Gates, SD

    10 TE Jimmy Graham, Sea
    10 LB Bobby Wagner, Sea
    10 DE Michael Bennett, Sea
    85 QB Russell Wilson, Sea
    90 CB Richard Sherman, Sea
    95 S Earl Thomas, Sea

    10 T Joe Staley, SF

    10 QB Jameis Winston, TB
    10 LB Lavonte David, TB
    30 DT Gerald McCoy, TB

    10 RB DeMarco Murray, Ten
    75 WR Andre Johnson, Ten

    25 CB Josh Norman, Was
    40 T Trent Williams, Was

  • JeremyDeShetler

    Descending order by percentage (all 1-10 are listed as 10 for brevity), secondary sort by position (alpha)…excuse typos or mislabeled positions please. Thought this might be easier to look at & compare…at least at the higher end.

    99 RB Adrian Peterson, Min
    99 T Joe Thomas, Cle
    98 DE DeMarcus Ware, Den
    95 CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ
    95 S Earl Thomas, Sea
    95 TE Jason Witten, Dal
    95 WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arz
    90 CB Richard Sherman, Sea
    90 QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
    85 LB Luke Kuechly, Car
    85 QB Russell Wilson, Sea
    80 LB Clay Matthews, GBP
    80 LB Julius Peppers, GBP
    80 WR AJ Green, Cin
    80 WR Antonio Brown, Pit
    75 DT Ndamukong Suh, Mia
    75 K Adam Vinatieri, Ind
    75 LB Von Miller, Den
    75 TE Rob Gronkowski, NEP
    75 WR Andre Johnson, Ten
    70 CB Patrick Peterson, Arz
    70 TE Antonio Gates, SD
    65 QB Cam Newton, Car
    60 WR Steve Smith, Bal
    55 QB Andrew Luck, Ind
    50 T Jason Peters, Phi
    50 WR Odell Beckham, NYG
    40 DE Dwight Freeney, Atl
    40 QB Eli Manning, NYG
    40 T Trent Williams, Was
    40 WR Anquan Boldin, Det
    35 C Maurkice Pouncey, Pit
    35 QB Philip Rivers, SD
    35 S Eric Berry, KC
    35 T Tyron Smith, Dal
    35 WR Julio Jones, Atl
    35 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den
    30 C Nick Mangold, NYJ
    30 DT Aaron Donald, Ram
    30 DT Gerald McCoy, TB
    30 LB Terrell Suggs, Bal
    25 CB Josh Norman, Was
    25 DE Khalil Mack, Oak
    25 LB Justin Houston, KC
    25 LB James Harrison, Pit
    25 WR Dez Bryant, Dal
    20 DE Chandler Jones, Arz
    20 DE Robert Quinn, Ram
    20 G Kyle Long, Chi
    15 DT Marcell Dareus, Buf
    100 DE JJ Watt, Hou
    100 QB Aaron Rodgers, GBP
    100 QB Tom Brady, NEP
    100 QB Drew Brees, NOS
    10 C Ryan Kalil, Car
    10 C Mike Pouncey, Mia
    10 CB Desmond Trufant, Atl
    10 CB Joe Haden, Cle
    10 CB Aqib Talib, Den
    10 CB Chris Harris Jr, Den
    10 CB Vontae Davis, Ind
    10 CB Devin McCourty, NEP
    10 DE Ezekiel Ansah, Det
    10 DE Cameron Wake, Mia
    10 DE Mario Williams, Mia
    10 DE Fletcher Cox, Phi
    10 DE Michael Bennett, Sea
    10 DL Muhammad Wilkerson, NYJ
    10 DT Calais Campbell, Arz
    10 DT Kyle Williams, Buf
    10 DT Haloti Ngata, Det
    10 DT Vince Wilfork, Hou
    10 DT Dontari Poe, KC
    10 DT Sheldon Richardson, NYJ
    10 G Marshal Yanda, Bal
    10 G Zack Martin, Dal
    10 G Josh Sitton, GBP
    10 G David DeCastro, Pit
    10 K Stephen Gostkowski, NEP
    10 LB Elvis Dumervil, Bal
    10 LB Robert Mathis, Ind
    10 LB Jamie Collins, NEP
    10 LB Dont’a Hightower, NEP
    10 LB Bobby Wagner, Sea
    10 LB Lavonte David, TB
    10 QB Carson Palmer, Arz
    10 QB Matt Ryan, Atl
    10 QB Joe Flacco, Bal
    10 QB Andy Dalton, Cin
    10 QB Tony Romo, Dal
    10 QB Matthew Stafford, Det
    10 QB Jameis Winston, TB
    10 RB LeSean McCoy, Buf
    10 RB Le’veon Bell, Pit
    10 RB DeMarco Murray, Ten
    10 S Tyrann Mathieu, Arz
    10 S Eric Weddle, Bal
    10 S Harrison Smith, Min
    10 T Andrew Whitworth, Cin
    10 T Duane Brown, Hou
    10 T Joe Staley, SF
    10 TE Greg Olsen, Car
    10 TE Jimmy Graham, Sea
    10 WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi
    10 WR Jordy Nelson, GBP
    10 WR TY Hilton, Ind
    10 WR Allen Robinson, Jax
    10 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ
    10 WR Keenan Allen, SD

  • JeremyDeShetler

    3rd time to post is the charm. Hoping no major mistakes agian. Sorted the players by Barnwell’s percentage (second sort by position/alpha). Thought this might be easier to compare…at least at the higher end. Excuse typos and mislabeled positions.

    100 DE JJ Watt, Hou
    100 QB Aaron Rodgers, GBP
    100 QB Tom Brady, NEP
    100 QB Drew Brees, NOS
    99 RB Adrian Peterson, Min
    99 T Joe Thomas, Cle
    98 DE DeMarcus Ware, Den
    95 CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ
    95 S Earl Thomas, Sea
    95 TE Jason Witten, Dal
    95 WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arz
    90 CB Richard Sherman, Sea
    90 QB Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
    85 LB Luke Kuechly, Car
    85 QB Russell Wilson, Sea
    80 LB Clay Matthews, GBP
    80 LB Julius Peppers, GBP
    80 WR AJ Green, Cin
    80 WR Antonio Brown, Pit
    75 DT Ndamukong Suh, Mia
    75 K Adam Vinatieri, Ind
    75 LB Von Miller, Den
    75 TE Rob Gronkowski, NEP
    75 WR Andre Johnson, Ten
    70 CB Patrick Peterson, Arz
    70 TE Antonio Gates, SD
    65 QB Cam Newton, Car
    60 WR Steve Smith, Bal
    55 QB Andrew Luck, Ind
    50 T Jason Peters, Phi
    50 WR Odell Beckham, NYG
    40 DE Dwight Freeney, Atl
    40 QB Eli Manning, NYG
    40 T Trent Williams, Was
    40 WR Anquan Boldin, Det
    35 C Maurkice Pouncey, Pit
    35 QB Philip Rivers, SD
    35 S Eric Berry, KC
    35 T Tyron Smith, Dal
    35 WR Julio Jones, Atl
    35 WR Demaryius Thomas, Den
    30 C Nick Mangold, NYJ
    30 DT Aaron Donald, Ram
    30 DT Gerald McCoy, TB
    30 LB Terrell Suggs, Bal
    25 CB Josh Norman, Was
    25 DE Khalil Mack, Oak
    25 LB Justin Houston, KC
    25 LB James Harrison, Pit
    25 WR Dez Bryant, Dal
    20 DE Chandler Jones, Arz
    20 DE Robert Quinn, Ram
    20 G Kyle Long, Chi
    15 DT Marcell Dareus, Buf
    10 C Ryan Kalil, Car
    10 C Mike Pouncey, Mia
    10 CB Desmond Trufant, Atl
    10 CB Joe Haden, Cle
    10 CB Aqib Talib, Den
    10 CB Chris Harris Jr, Den
    10 CB Vontae Davis, Ind
    10 CB Devin McCourty, NEP
    10 DE Ezekiel Ansah, Det
    10 DE Cameron Wake, Mia
    10 DE Mario Williams, Mia
    10 DE Fletcher Cox, Phi
    10 DE Michael Bennett, Sea
    10 DL Muhammad Wilkerson, NYJ
    10 DT Calais Campbell, Arz
    10 DT Kyle Williams, Buf
    10 DT Haloti Ngata, Det
    10 DT Vince Wilfork, Hou
    10 DT Dontari Poe, KC
    10 DT Sheldon Richardson, NYJ
    10 G Marshal Yanda, Bal
    10 G Zack Martin, Dal
    10 G Josh Sitton, GBP
    10 G David DeCastro, Pit
    10 K Stephen Gostkowski, NEP
    10 LB Elvis Dumervil, Bal
    10 LB Robert Mathis, Ind
    10 LB Jamie Collins, NEP
    10 LB Dont’a Hightower, NEP
    10 LB Bobby Wagner, Sea
    10 LB Lavonte David, TB
    10 QB Carson Palmer, Arz
    10 QB Matt Ryan, Atl
    10 QB Joe Flacco, Bal
    10 QB Andy Dalton, Cin
    10 QB Tony Romo, Dal
    10 QB Matthew Stafford, Det
    10 QB Jameis Winston, TB
    10 RB LeSean McCoy, Buf
    10 RB Le’veon Bell, Pit
    10 RB DeMarco Murray, Ten
    10 S Tyrann Mathieu, Arz
    10 S Eric Weddle, Bal
    10 S Harrison Smith, Min
    10 T Andrew Whitworth, Cin
    10 T Duane Brown, Hou
    10 T Joe Staley, SF
    10 TE Greg Olsen, Car
    10 TE Jimmy Graham, Sea
    10 WR Alshon Jeffery, Chi
    10 WR Jordy Nelson, GBP
    10 WR TY Hilton, Ind
    10 WR Allen Robinson, Jax
    10 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ
    10 WR Keenan Allen, SD

    • Am I the only one who feels like 75% for Andre Johnson is really low?

      • Voters seem to care a lot about touchdowns, and he just didn’t get that many.

        • I’m not sure I had even realized how low his TD totals were.

          I would not even have checked his p-f-r page before voting yes on him.

          • I’m not too concerned with his TDs myself. I think for most WRs they are often a byproduct of overall offensive success. Johnson’s Texans had very little overall offensive success, so it’s no surprise he didn’t rack up the scores. He did, however, have an insane yardage peak, which is much more indicative of a guy’s skill and consistency.

      • JeremyDeShetler

        I was fine with the 75% for Johnson, but I thought the gap between Witten and Gates (95 vs 70) was a bit strange.

        Witten – 13 years, 197 GS, 2 All Pro, 10 Pro Bowls, 1020-11215-60 career line which is 10th, 32nd, 78th alltime.
        Gates – 13 years, 190 GS, 3 All Pro, 8 Pro Bowls, 844-10644-104 career line which is 28th, 38th, 7th alltime.

        • Josh Sanford

          Witten seems high to me. Very high. He will be waiting for a long, long time, right?

        • Richie

          In my mind, Gates has been the better player. I am surprised the stats are as close as they are.

          • I was going to write that “I would have guessed that the disparity in games between the two was a lot bigger.”

            Well, I looked it up and I was right. Witten is at 207 G/197 GS, while Gates is at 190/176. So that’s a little more than a full season. Witten has more catches and more receiving yards, while Gates has more TDs and more receiving yards per game. In my mind, they are both HOFers.

    • Richie

      It looks like his percentages are all (understandably) low. In his preface he said there are probably 50 players in the league who should make the HOF. If you add up all those percentages, that only gets us to about 37 HOFers.

      • JeremyDeShetler

        A little less than that if you consider that all the 10s are actually 1-10% in the article. There’s 55 of those players.

    • Richie

      I am a Fitzgerald fan, but I think 95% might be too high for him.

      • That was another one where I did a double-take. I could easily see a Monk-like wait for him, though his great postseason stories will help. I would put it at more like 80%.

        • Richie

          Maybe I was swayed too much by your article from a couple years ago: http://www.footballperspective.com/questioning-the-narrative-on-larry-fitzgerald/ (Holy crap – that’s 3 years old!?!?!)

          Of course, since you wrote that, he has gone to 2 more Pro Bowls (in 3 seasons) and 2015 was his best AV season since 2008. He “only” needs 2,600 receiving yards to catch Terrell Owens for #2 all time. Coming off a 1,200 yard season, picking up another 2,600 doesn’t seem crazy.

          I just feel like his peak wasn’t quite high enough or long enough to be a HOF lock. He comes up short of Rice, Owens and Moss. But then they are probably the 3 best modern receivers.

          • I can’t believe that was 3 years old, either.

            I think a fun project would be to craft the “Larry Fitzgerald is not a HOFer” argument. Maybe someone in the comments here will volunteer!

            • Easy: Larry Fitzgerald is an active player and is, thus, not eligible for the Hall of Fame.
              Or even easier: Larry Fitzgerald is not currently a member of the Hall of Fame.

    • sacramento gold miners

      Antonio Brown, AJ Green, and Earl Thomas, are among players rated too highly. Steve Smith, and LeSean McCoy are rated too long among others. McCoy entered the NFL at a young age, and I believe is only 28. I also predict Big Ben will be a first ballot inductee, and not Jason Whitten or Earl Thomas at this point.

  • I accidentally caused this discussion on a different thread here before, so I think most of us already know how it will go. 😉

    I will be surprised if Eli Manning doesn’t get in. Anything that can possibly cause a player to be overrated, he has, and often in spades. He’s going to end up having played his entire career in New York. His supporters have always found numerous excuses for his level of production (Kevin Gilbride earlier in his career; his offensive line in the middle; his receivers recently). He’s been on two Super Bowl winning teams and was the MVP winner in both games (though one was one of the dumbest Super Bowl MVP choices in history). He was famous before he entered the league. He’s likeable and controversy-free. He’s been on some teams that have made surprise postseason runs, which impresses people more than being really good the entire time. I really think that under those circumstances he just needed to have an above-average career to be a likely Hall of Famer, and he’s had a very good career. He SHOULDN’T get in, or even get close, barring some amazing late-career peak. But I would have put the odds at about double what Barnwell did.

    Beckham, meanwhile, seems riskier than 50%. He’s missed six games in his first two years. He’s currently missing practice with a foot injury. That crazy game he and Josh Norman played also seems to suggest he may be easier to rattle than many players, and that already cost him one game, so it’s quite possible it costs him more in the future. He’s an incredible talent–one who SHOULD have a Hall of Fame career ahead of him, but he feels far more risky than a 50% shot. It seems more likely for him than for most players that he ends up being someone who can’t stay on the field and/or ends up retiring early.

    • TN

      Do you think playing in New York is going to make any difference? It hasn’t helped Phil Simms or Tiki Barber (yet). It didn’t help Mo Lewis or Mark Gastineau. The modern Giants have three Hall of Famers, Taylor, Carson and Strahan, and all those are no-brainers, I think. The only Hall of Famer who was really helped by playing in New York is Joe Namath, and that was a long time ago.

      • Frank Gifford was helped by playing in NY, but that was even longer ago.

      • I think it’s a pretty small effect, but it has one. If he had the same career but played it out in Jacksonville, he would probably be seen as a bit lesser of a player than he is.
        It’s the concatenation of all of those factors that’s always going to add up to him being overrated. None of them on its own would, but playing in New York is a small factor that goes with all of the others to distort his record.
        None of those examples is someone who is really anywhere near a Hall of Famer, so their failing to make it is not a sign that playing in New York doesn’t help.

      • If you want to talk about a Jet that is overlooked, Klecko (or maybe Kevin Mawae) is your man, not Lewis or Gastineau.

  • One thing I like about the comments on the article itself is the number of people calling Charles the career leader in YPC, as it Marion Motley never existed. Charles is the second ranked non-QB YPC monster in history, and that’s not an insult at all. We don’t need to just make stuff up to vouch for our favorite players.

    • I think not counting his AAFC stats is defensible in a way that’s at least different than other ways in which people ignore history. As a technical matter, Charles *is* the career leader in YPC in NFL history among non-QBs.

      • I’ll concede the AAFC point, especially since Motley never had to face the Browns defense.

        On Charles being the career leader in YPCAN-QBs, I say…that’s a cool achievement, but it’s not all that important (to me). Here’s a thing http://www.pro-football-reference.com/tiny/aj5WH

  • Adam

    Andrew Luck at 55% is ridiculous. He’s had one good statistical season in four years, with his most recent being his worst. He’s also had the snot beaten out of him, which you’d think increases his chance of injury moving forward. Luck is possibly the most overhyped player in my lifetime.

    • Sure, Luck’s numbers are not commensurate with his reputation, but I generally think that’s more because his numbers underrate him. Putting that aside, from a “will he” make the HOF perspective, I wasn’t bothered by Barnwell’s estimate there. If I had to guess, I’d say that yeah, Luck will one day be in the HOF, but it’s pretty close.

      • Adam

        I agree that Luck’s numbers underrate him, but enough to put him on a HoF track? Seems like a stretch to me. Unlike other QB’s who started slow statistically and still made the Hall, Luck won’t be surrounded by a dominant team at any point in the foreseeable future. He doesn’t have the luxury of an Aikman or Bradshaw to balance underwhelming stats with rings. Frankly I think it’s better than 50/50 odds that Luck never wins a ring, which would obviously hurt his HoF chances.

        • Humanoid

          But Barnwell is saying Luck has a 55/45 chance of getting to the HoF, so that’s not far off from your estimate.

  • Richie

    I hate ESPN’s new “infinity” style website.

    • Josh Sanford

      Richie, posts like that are to be encouraged all over the web.

  • Just want to say I appreciate all the comments today. This is a good reminder that I should probably speak less and listen more: i.e., more stuff where I just get you guys to do the writing, rather than me putting together a bunch of words. This is a great community.

  • Clint

    I was a little surprised at how low Brandon Marshall’s chances are. 10%? Figured it’d be around 50%. Had 7 straight seasons with 1k yards or more. Had 100 receptions 5 times while not having too low of a yards per target. Only averaged less than 70 yards per game in two seasons, which is very impressive.

  • Clint

    How many QBs have won 2 Super Bowls and not gotten in the HOF? It’s just about what the voters think is important. They’ll think that’s very important.
    I’m iffy on whether he should get in or not, but one case I don’t see is how his receivers perform when they leave NY.
    Here’s a list of pass catchers who were productive or were at least developing well and dropped off after leaving NYG:
    Mario Manningham
    Steve Smith
    Domenik Hixon
    Jake Ballard
    Kevin Boss
    Hakeem Nicks
    They all have different stories and situations, but there seems to be a lot of evidence of receivers generally being better with Eli as opposed to without Eli. To me, that’s indicative of great QB play. Just a thought.
    Also, Plaxico was more productive with Eli than he was before Eli.

    • Richie

      “How many QBs have won 2 Super Bowls and not gotten in the HOF?”

      Only Jim Plunkett amongst eligible players.

    • Yeah, but that’s a misleading question.

      It’s about as loaded a question as this one: How many QBs have 0 top-4 seasons in ANY/A and just 1 top-9 season in ANY/A and are in the HOF?

      • Clint

        I was saying what the voters will think. Eventually, Eli will get in. 10, 20, 30 years down the line. The Super Bowl is the most important thing in the game, and that’s what they’ll focus on.

      • Adam

        The case against Eli is pretty staggering when you put it that way!