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Two pretty accurate passers.

Last week, I published two posts on quarterbacks based on their completion percentage and yards per completion averages, relative to league average. The Sam Bradford Index post looks at quarterbacks with high completion percentages and low yards/completion averages, while the Jay Schroeder Index looks at the reverse.  Freddy Alejandro made a request for career ratings in the comments, and with the help of Bryan Frye’s formula, I went ahead and generated those ratings.

Note that when calculating single-season standard deviations in both completion percentage and yards per completion, I used two modifications from last week’s posts. One, I used a three-year rolling average, and two, I used all passers (and not just qualifying passers) to calculate standard deviations. These combinations had the effect of making the standard deviations greater, which makes the Z-Scores smaller. As a result, the numbers are more compressed than they were last week, in addition to the fact that career ratings always bring less extreme ratings than a list of single-season leaders.

The most extreme rating belongs to Joe Montana, who for his career was 1.23 standard deviations above average in completion percentage.  That’s the second-best rating, behind only Steve Young: each passer led the NFL in completion percentage five different times.  From 1980 to 1997, 49ers passers led the league in completion percentage 10 times, with the rest of the league winning just eight crowns.

The difference between Young and Montana: Young had a slightly above-average yards per completion average for his career, while Montana was slightly below-average. [1]Despite Montana finishing with a higher Yd/Cmp average for his career, that is a function of era; Montana never finished higher than 10th in that metric, while Young had three top-5 finishes and … Continue reading And remember, this metric is calculated by taking each passer’s Z-Score in completion percentage and then subtracting their Z-Score in yards/completion, so a negative number in the latter category leads to a higher rating.  After all, we are trying to identify the passers who had the highest completion percentages with the lowest yards per completion averages.

Note that this is a measure of style, not quality.  Finishing high or low on this list is neither inherently good or bad.  Joining Montana in the top 3 is Chad Pennington, although most of the top quarterbacks are Hall of Famers.  Take a look:

RkQuarterbackFirst YrLast YrAttZ-Score Cmp%Z-Score Yd/CmpTotal
1Joe Montana1979199453911.23-0.281.51
2Sammy Baugh1937195229951.14-0.241.38
3Chad Pennington2000201024711.09-0.281.37
4Drew Brees2001201687581.10-0.101.20
5Sonny Jurgensen1957197442621.00-0.191.19
6Bart Starr1956197131491.07-0.121.18
7Steve Young1985199941491.350.231.12
8Ken Stabler1970198437930.92-0.171.09
9Troy Aikman1989200047150.78-0.301.07
10Frankie Albert1946195215640.70-0.361.06
11Fran Tarkenton1961197864670.86-0.201.06
12Len Dawson1957197537410.95-0.081.03
13John Brodie1957197344910.68-0.321.01
14Ken Anderson1971198644750.86-0.120.99
15Y.A. Tittle1948196443950.82-0.160.98
16Brad Johnson1994200843260.59-0.390.98
17Bernie Kosar1985199633650.58-0.390.97
18Brian Griese1998200827960.66-0.240.90
19Peyton Manning1998201593800.990.110.89
20Frank Tripucka1949196317450.17-0.720.89
21Billy Wade1954196625230.62-0.250.87
22Milt Plum1957196924190.58-0.280.86
23Bill Munson1964197919820.43-0.410.84
24Sam Bradford2010201628440.17-0.640.82
25Ken O'Brien1984199336020.49-0.320.80
26Danny White1976198829500.69-0.080.77
27Kurt Warner1998200940701.100.330.77
28Matt Ryan2008201650640.69-0.020.71
29Brett Favre19912010101690.58-0.100.68
30Tony Eason1983199015640.47-0.200.67
31Bobby Hebert1985199631210.44-0.210.65
32Bob Griese1967198034290.64-0.010.65
33Rich Gannon1987200442060.43-0.210.64
34Archie Manning1971198436420.31-0.310.61
35Otto Graham1946195526261.010.400.61
36Johnny Unitas1956197351860.630.040.59
37Jim Harbaugh1987200039180.31-0.280.59
38Tim Couch1999200317140.23-0.350.58
39Greg Landry1968198423000.46-0.110.57
40Jeff Garcia1999200836760.45-0.110.57
41Roman Gabriel1962197744980.24-0.300.53
42Steve DeBerg1978199850240.28-0.250.53
43Dan Fouts1973198756040.690.170.52
44Jim Kelly1986199647790.620.120.50
45Brian Sipe1974198334390.32-0.180.49
46Tony Romo2006201643350.830.350.48
47Gary Danielson1977198819320.39-0.080.47
48Jim McMahon1982199625730.32-0.160.47
49Dan Marino1983199983580.520.060.47
50David Carr2002201222670.02-0.440.46
51Joe Theismann1974198536020.31-0.150.46
52Tom Brady2000201682240.580.140.44
53Neil Lomax1981198831530.36-0.070.43
54Kirk Cousins2012201615560.670.240.43
55Alex Smith2005201641080.09-0.340.43
56Norm Van Brocklin1949196028950.640.230.41
57Jon Kitna1997201144420.20-0.210.41
58Dave Krieg1980199853110.37-0.030.40
59Bob Waterfield1945195216170.39-0.010.39
60Roger Staubach1969197929580.650.260.39
61Aaron Rodgers2005201646570.700.330.37
62Matt Schaub2004201632740.570.200.37
63Daunte Culpepper2000200931990.650.280.37
64Sid Luckman1939195017440.610.260.35
65Steve McNair1995200745440.28-0.070.35
66Ryan Tannehill2012201626370.13-0.210.34
67Elvis Grbac1994200124450.26-0.080.34
68Bert Jones1973198225510.360.020.34
69Billy Kilmer1961197829840.26-0.060.31
70Charlie Conerly1948196128330.19-0.120.31
71Marc Bulger2002200931710.360.060.30
72Norm Snead1961197643530.24-0.050.29
73Mark Brunell1994201146400.26-0.020.28
74Steve Bartkowski1975198634560.21-0.060.27
75Philip Rivers2004201659170.580.320.27
76Warren Moon1984200068230.340.100.24
77David Garrard2002201022810.20-0.040.24
78Andy Dalton2011201630600.20-0.020.22
79Joe Flacco200820164742-0.02-0.220.21
80Wade Wilson1981199824280.200.020.18
81Neil O'Donnell1991200332290.07-0.090.16
82Carson Palmer2004201660400.280.120.16
83Derek Carr201420161732-0.37-0.530.15
84Jason Campbell200620142518-0.11-0.260.14
85Mike Livingston196919791751-0.02-0.150.12
86Matt Hasselbeck1999201553300.04-0.080.12
87Erik Kramer1987199922990.01-0.110.12
88Tommy Kramer197719903651-0.02-0.130.11
89Ben Roethlisberger2004201659320.570.460.11
90Jim Everett1986199749230.170.070.11
91Vince Ferragamo1977198616150.03-0.050.08
92Don Majkowski198719961905-0.10-0.170.08
93Kyle Boller200320111519-0.55-0.630.07
94Russell Wilson2012201622810.510.460.05
95Matthew Stafford200920164285-0.03-0.050.02
96Frank Ryan1958197021330.180.160.02
97Jay Cutler2006201644910.130.120.01
98Craig Morton1965198237860.250.240.01
99Dan Pastorini197119833055-0.28-0.290.01
100Joey Harrington200220072538-0.62-0.620.01
101Randall Cunningham1985200142890.060.07-0.01
102Jeff George1990200139670.090.12-0.03
103Steve Bono198519991701-0.45-0.42-0.03
104Kyle Orton200520142712-0.24-0.21-0.04
105Jeff Hostetler1988199723380.110.17-0.06
106Bobby Layne1948196237000.060.12-0.06
107Eddie LeBaron1952196317960.070.14-0.07
108Don Meredith1960196823080.110.18-0.07
109Charley Johnson1961197533920.060.13-0.07
110John Elway1983199872500.070.16-0.09
111Ryan Fitzpatrick200520163876-0.33-0.23-0.10
112Lynn Dickey1971198531250.180.29-0.11
113Chad Henne200820141954-0.34-0.23-0.12
114Chris Chandler1988200440050.110.23-0.12
115Boomer Esiason1984199752050.100.23-0.13
116Jay Fiedler199820051717-0.010.14-0.15
117Jack Trudeau198619951644-0.49-0.34-0.15
118Kordell Stewart199520032358-0.39-0.24-0.15
119Drew Bledsoe199320066717-0.17-0.01-0.16
120Bubby Brister198620002212-0.32-0.15-0.16
121Richard Todd197619852967-0.110.07-0.19
122Mike Phipps197019811799-0.51-0.32-0.19
123Jim Zorn197619873149-0.180.01-0.19
124Matt Cassel200520162624-0.42-0.23-0.19
125Earl Morrall1956197626890.160.35-0.19
126Rodney Peete198920042346-0.040.17-0.21
127Tom Flores196019691715-0.150.06-0.21
128Byron Leftwich200320121605-0.33-0.10-0.23
129George Blanda194919754007-0.27-0.02-0.25
130Phil Simms197919934647-0.040.22-0.25
131Stan Humphries198919972516-0.130.14-0.27
132John Hadl196219774687-0.060.21-0.27
133Josh McCown200220162121-0.37-0.09-0.27
134Joe Ferguson197319904519-0.31-0.03-0.27
135Trent Green1997200837400.270.56-0.29
136Donovan McNabb199920115374-0.140.17-0.30
137Bill Kenney198019882430-0.170.15-0.31
138Mark Rypien198820012613-0.120.20-0.32
139Bill Nelsen1963197219050.010.33-0.32
140Vinny Testaverde198720076701-0.150.19-0.34
141Jim Hart196619845076-0.220.15-0.37
142Jake Plummer199720064350-0.270.11-0.37
143Ron Jaworski197419894117-0.280.10-0.38
144Chris Miller198719992892-0.350.04-0.38
145Tobin Rote195019662907-0.41-0.02-0.39
146Jim Plunkett197119863701-0.160.24-0.40
147Jeff Blake199220053241-0.280.15-0.42
148Jake Delhomme199920112932-0.100.33-0.43
149Eli Manning200420166825-0.280.18-0.46
150Dave Brown199220001634-0.60-0.13-0.46
151Trent Dilfer199420073172-0.48-0.02-0.47
152Mark Malone198119891648-0.73-0.26-0.47
153Rick Mirer199320032043-0.85-0.36-0.48
154Eric Hipple198119891546-0.320.17-0.49
155Steve Beuerlein198820033328-0.020.47-0.50
156Joe Namath196519773762-0.110.40-0.50
157Babe Parilli195219693330-0.430.12-0.56
158Daryle Lamonica196319742601-0.170.41-0.58
159Scott Mitchell199220012346-0.390.19-0.59
160Charlie Batch199820121604-0.320.30-0.62
161Blake Bortles201420161706-0.82-0.20-0.63
162Terry Bradshaw197019833901-0.210.45-0.66
163Jack Kemp195719693073-0.480.20-0.68
164Kerry Collins199520116261-0.590.10-0.69
165Josh Freeman200920152048-0.630.11-0.74
166Colin Kaepernick201120161692-0.490.33-0.83
167Tony Banks199620052356-0.640.19-0.83
168Aaron Brooks200020062963-0.490.34-0.84
169Billy Joe Tolliver198919991707-0.87-0.01-0.87
170Doug Flutie198620052151-0.510.37-0.87
171Marc Wilson198019902081-0.600.28-0.87
172Mark Sanchez200920162285-0.810.07-0.88
173Ed Brown195419651987-0.330.57-0.90
174Mike Pagel198219931509-1.01-0.10-0.91
175Andrew Luck201220162651-0.550.38-0.93
176Mike Tomczak198519992337-0.570.40-0.97
177Steve Grogan197519903593-0.330.68-1.01
178Rex Grossman200320111562-0.950.20-1.15
179Cotton Davidson195419681752-0.870.30-1.17
180Gus Frerotte199420083106-0.690.55-1.24
181Michael Vick200120153217-0.750.50-1.25
182Doug Williams197819892507-0.900.47-1.37
183Cam Newton201120162928-0.710.73-1.44
184Derek Anderson200620161596-1.200.35-1.55
185Jay Schroeder198519942808-0.930.85-1.78

On the other side of the spectrum is, unsurprisingly, Jay Schroeder followed by Derek Anderson and Cam Newton.  Schroeder, Newton, and Steve Grogan are the top three players in standard deviations above average in yards per completion, while Anderson, Mike Pagel and Rex Grossman are the bottom three in completion percentage.

Meanwhile, Kyle Boller, Sam Bradford and Frank Tripucka are the bottom three in yards per completion.

What stands out to you?

References

References
1 Despite Montana finishing with a higher Yd/Cmp average for his career, that is a function of era; Montana never finished higher than 10th in that metric, while Young had three top-5 finishes and three more top-10 finishes.
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