The Sam Bradford Index

by Chase Stuart on May 19, 2017

Sneak peak at the average length of a Bradford completion

You may have heard that Sam Bradford set the completion percentage record in 2016 by completing 71.6% of his passes.

What you may not have heard: Bradford also ranked last in the league in passing yards gained per completion, which makes his record-breaking performance a somewhat hollow achievement. Bradford is the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to rank 1st in completion percentage and last in yards per completion, joining David Carr (HOU 2006), Eric Hipple (DET 1986), Joe Montana (SFO 1980) in his first year as a starter, and Sonny Jurgensen (WAS 1969). In general, things didn’t work out well for those quarterbacks: Carr posted a 6-10 record in 2006, while Hipple went 3-7, and Montana went 2-5. Bradford went 7-8 last season, meaning only Jurgensen (7-5-2) posted a winning record of that bunch (and Washington had a negative points differential and faced a very easy schedule that year).

Expand the list to finishing 1st or 2nd in completion percentage and last or 2nd-to-last in yards per completion, and you bring in four more quarterbacks: Chad Pennington (NYJ 2007, 2nd in both), Joe Montana (SFO 1981, 1st in comp%, 2nd-to-last in YPC), Fran Tarkenton (MIN 1977, 1st, 2nd) and Len Dawson (KAN 1972, 2nd in comp%, last in YPC). The results there were mixed: Pennington went 1-7, while Montana went 13-3, Tarkenton went 6-3, and Dawson went 7-5. It is worth pointing out that Montana and Tarkenton both had above-average Y/A ratios that year: in other words, having a high completion percentage is great, but only if it doesn’t come at the expense of your yards per completion average.

How much of a checkdown artist was Bradford last year? He finished 1.95 standard deviations above average in completion percentage last year among qualifying passers, a metric commonly referred to as a Z-score. He also finished 1.82 standard deviations below average in yards per completion. If you take his Z-Score in completion percentage (+1.95), and subtract his Z-Score in yards per completion (-1.82), you get a result of +3.77.

That may not mean much in the abstract, but it ranks as the 3rd most extreme result in the Super Bowl era, behind only Jurgensen 69 and Carr 06. The table below shows the top 200 most extreme checkdown artists — by this metric — since 1966:

Rk	Player	Team	Year	Cmp%	Yd/Cmp	Z-Score (Cmp)	Z-Score (Y/C)	Total
1	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1969	62%	11.3	2.78	-1.77	4.55
2	David Carr	HOU	2006	68.3%	9.2	2.01	-2.02	4.03
3	Sam Bradford	MIN	2016	71.6%	9.8	1.95	-1.82	3.77
4	Eric Hipple	DET	1986	63%	10.0	1.72	-2.04	3.76
5	Ken Anderson	CIN	1982	70.6%	11.4	2.76	-0.91	3.67
6	Kelly Holcomb	CLE	2003	63.9%	9.3	1.19	-2.48	3.67
7	Joe Montana	SFO	1980	64.5%	10.2	1.84	-1.78	3.62
8	Joe Montana	SFO	1987	66.8%	11.5	2.45	-1.13	3.59
9	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2007	68.8%	9.9	1.68	-1.86	3.54
10	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1978	60.3%	10.1	1.46	-1.96	3.43
11	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1975	64.2%	11.0	2.27	-1.08	3.35
12	Drew Brees	NOR	2010	68.1%	10.3	1.81	-1.48	3.29
13	Steve Young	SFO	1995	66.9%	10.7	1.94	-1.34	3.28
14	Kelly Holcomb	BUF	2005	67.4%	9.7	1.57	-1.63	3.20
15	Steve Young	SFO	1996	67.7%	11.3	2.69	-0.48	3.16
16	Joe Montana	SFO	1981	63.7%	11.5	1.97	-1.19	3.16
17	Matt Ryan	ATL	2013	67.4%	10.3	1.56	-1.58	3.14
18	Virgil Carter	CIN	1971	62.2%	11.8	1.78	-1.24	3.02
19	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1984	67.3%	11.9	2.16	-0.85	3.01
20	Drew Brees	NOR	2007	67.5%	10.1	1.36	-1.60	2.96
21	Ken Stabler	HOU	1980	64.1%	10.9	1.76	-1.20	2.95
22	Troy Aikman	DAL	1996	63.7%	10.6	1.59	-1.35	2.93
23	Len Dawson	KAN	1972	57.4%	10.5	1.19	-1.74	2.93
24	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1977	60.1%	11.2	1.71	-1.22	2.92
25	Greg Landry	DET	1977	56.3%	10.1	0.86	-2.04	2.90
26	Shane Matthews	CHI	1999	60.7%	9.9	1.11	-1.79	2.90
27	Joe Montana	SFO	1989	70.2%	13.0	3.20	0.32	2.88
28	Kirk Cousins	WAS	2015	69.8%	11.0	1.93	-0.87	2.80
29	Roman Gabriel	PHI	1974	57.1%	9.7	0.68	-2.11	2.79
30	Rich Gannon	OAK	2001	65.8%	10.6	1.75	-1.02	2.76
31	Brett Favre	GNB	1992	64.1%	10.7	1.23	-1.53	2.76
32	Drew Brees	NOR	2011	71.2%	11.7	2.37	-0.38	2.75
33	Ken Anderson	CIN	1983	66.7%	11.8	1.90	-0.81	2.72
34	Norm Snead	NYG	1972	60.3%	11.8	1.79	-0.93	2.72
35	Steve DeBerg	SFO	1979	60%	10.5	1.24	-1.46	2.70
36	Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	2008	59.4%	8.6	-0.44	-3.12	2.68
37	Joe Montana	SFO	1985	61.3%	12.1	1.86	-0.82	2.68
38	Peyton Manning	IND	2010	66.3%	10.4	1.34	-1.33	2.67
39	Dave Krieg	SEA	1991	65.6%	11.1	1.77	-0.90	2.67
40	Christian Ponder	MIN	2012	62.1%	9.8	0.34	-2.32	2.66
41	Kordell Stewart	PIT	1999	58.2%	9.2	0.25	-2.40	2.65
42	Fran Tarkenton	NYG	1971	58.5%	11.4	1.11	-1.54	2.65
43	Joe Theismann	WAS	1985	55.5%	10.6	0.22	-2.42	2.64
44	Matt Ryan	ATL	2012	68.6%	11.2	1.94	-0.63	2.57
45	Charlie Frye	CLE	2006	64.3%	9.7	1.06	-1.51	2.57
46	Jeff George	IND	1991	60.2%	10.0	0.53	-2.02	2.55
47	Bob Griese	MIA	1978	63%	12.1	2.06	-0.49	2.55
48	Archie Manning	NOR	1978	61.8%	11.7	1.79	-0.75	2.54
49	Brett Favre	NYJ	2008	65.7%	10.1	1.09	-1.45	2.54
50	Dave Krieg	CHI	1996	59.9%	10.1	0.58	-1.94	2.53
51	Gary Huff	CHI	1975	55.6%	9.5	0.45	-2.05	2.51
52	Drew Brees	NOR	2014	69.2%	10.9	1.71	-0.80	2.50
53	Matthew Stafford	DET	2015	67.2%	10.7	1.20	-1.25	2.45
54	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1970	59.9%	11.7	1.57	-0.84	2.40
55	Ken Anderson	CIN	1974	64.9%	12.5	2.34	-0.06	2.40
56	Jim Harbaugh	IND	1997	61.2%	10.9	1.29	-1.11	2.40
57	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	2014	66.4%	10.3	0.97	-1.41	2.38
58	Danny White	DAL	1985	59.3%	11.8	1.30	-1.08	2.38
59	Steve Walsh	CHI	1994	60.6%	10.0	0.55	-1.83	2.37
60	Ken Anderson	CIN	1972	56.8%	11.2	1.08	-1.28	2.35
61	Steve Young	SFO	1997	67.7%	12.6	3.04	0.70	2.34
62	Archie Manning	NOR	1981	57.8%	10.8	0.61	-1.72	2.33
63	Troy Aikman	DAL	1993	69.1%	11.4	2.25	-0.06	2.32
64	Mike Livingston	KAN	1978	54.8%	9.9	0.24	-2.07	2.31
65	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1968	57.2%	11.9	1.19	-1.09	2.29
66	Joe Montana	SFO	1983	64.5%	11.8	1.45	-0.82	2.27
67	Jay Cutler	CHI	2014	66%	10.3	0.83	-1.43	2.26
68	Josh Freeman	TAM	2011	62.8%	10.4	0.64	-1.63	2.26
69	Greg Landry	BAL	1979	59.1%	10.9	1.03	-1.23	2.26
70	Bobby Hebert	NOR	1989	62.9%	12.1	1.49	-0.77	2.25
71	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1989	60.4%	11.6	0.90	-1.35	2.25
72	Brian Griese	TAM	2004	69.3%	11.3	1.83	-0.41	2.25
73	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1983	63.4%	11.6	1.23	-1.01	2.24
74	Ken Anderson	CIN	1980	60.4%	10.7	0.86	-1.37	2.23
75	Len Dawson	KAN	1967	57.7%	12.9	1.56	-0.66	2.22
76	Roman Gabriel	RAM	1969	54.4%	11.7	0.73	-1.49	2.22
77	Warren Moon	HOU	1992	64.7%	11.3	1.35	-0.86	2.21
78	Joe Montana	SFO	1986	62.2%	11.7	1.54	-0.67	2.21
79	Ken Stabler	OAK	1973	62.7%	12.3	1.89	-0.30	2.19
80	John Brodie	SFO	1969	55.9%	12.4	1.14	-1.05	2.18
81	Jon Kitna	SEA	2000	62%	10.3	0.79	-1.40	2.18
82	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1982	63.4%	11.5	1.29	-0.88	2.17
83	Jim Kelly	BUF	1987	59.7%	11.2	0.78	-1.39	2.17
84	Randy Wright	GNB	1988	57.8%	10.6	0.60	-1.57	2.17
85	Brad Johnson	MIN	1997	60.8%	11.0	1.20	-0.96	2.16
86	Neil O'Donnell	CIN	1998	61.8%	10.5	1.10	-1.05	2.15
87	Cody Carlson	HOU	1992	65.6%	11.5	1.53	-0.60	2.13
88	Rich Gannon	MIN	1991	59.6%	10.3	0.40	-1.73	2.13
89	Chris Chandler	HOU	1995	63.2%	10.9	1.08	-1.05	2.13
90	Troy Aikman	DAL	1991	65.3%	11.6	1.70	-0.41	2.11
91	Dan Fouts	SDG	1984	62.5%	11.8	1.14	-0.97	2.11
92	Ken Anderson	CIN	1984	63.6%	12.0	1.37	-0.73	2.11
93	Patrick Ramsey	WAS	2004	62.1%	9.9	0.32	-1.78	2.10
94	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1966	58.3%	12.6	1.31	-0.78	2.09
95	Philip Rivers	SDG	2012	64.1%	10.7	0.84	-1.25	2.09
96	Dan Fouts	SDG	1979	62.6%	12.3	1.82	-0.26	2.08
97	Peyton Manning	IND	2002	66.3%	10.7	1.37	-0.72	2.08
98	Joe Montana	SFO	1990	61.7%	12.3	1.79	-0.29	2.08
99	Roman Gabriel	RAM	1966	54.7%	11.7	0.71	-1.37	2.08
100	Joe Flacco	BAL	2016	64.9%	9.9	0.35	-1.73	2.08
101	Peyton Manning	IND	2008	66.8%	10.8	1.36	-0.72	2.08
102	Dieter Brock	RAM	1985	59.7%	12.2	1.41	-0.66	2.07
103	Brad Johnson	TAM	2001	60.8%	10.0	0.38	-1.69	2.07
104	Anthony Wright	BAL	2005	61.7%	9.6	0.36	-1.71	2.07
105	Brett Favre	GNB	2003	65.4%	10.9	1.55	-0.51	2.07
106	Ken Anderson	CIN	1981	62.6%	12.5	1.72	-0.34	2.07
107	Tom Brady	NWE	2001	63.9%	10.8	1.24	-0.82	2.06
108	Bob Berry	ATL	1970	58%	11.6	1.18	-0.88	2.06
109	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1971	54.4%	11.1	0.34	-1.71	2.05
110	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1976	61.9%	11.6	1.38	-0.67	2.05
111	Jeff Hostetler	OAK	1996	60.2%	10.5	0.65	-1.38	2.04
112	Peyton Manning	IND	2003	67%	11.3	1.95	-0.09	2.03
113	Peyton Manning	DEN	2012	68.6%	11.6	1.94	-0.07	2.01
114	Drew Brees	NOR	2016	70%	11.1	1.57	-0.42	2.00
115	Ken Stabler	OAK	1979	61%	11.9	1.47	-0.53	2.00
116	Johnny Unitas	BAL	1967	58.5%	13.4	1.73	-0.26	1.99
117	Drew Brees	NOR	2013	68.6%	11.6	1.86	-0.11	1.97
118	Joe Ferguson	BUF	1984	55.5%	10.4	-0.37	-2.34	1.97
119	Carson Palmer	CIN	2005	67.8%	11.1	1.65	-0.31	1.97
120	Jim Harbaugh	CHI	1993	61.5%	10.0	0.67	-1.29	1.96
121	Tom Brady	NWE	2002	62.1%	10.1	0.51	-1.44	1.96
122	Jim Kelly	BUF	1990	63.3%	12.9	2.32	0.37	1.94
123	Joe Flacco	BAL	2015	64.4%	10.5	0.40	-1.54	1.94
124	Brett Favre	GNB	1994	62.4%	10.7	0.86	-1.08	1.94
125	Steve DeBerg	DEN	1982	58.7%	10.7	0.35	-1.59	1.94
126	Steve DeBerg	TAM	1984	60.5%	11.5	0.70	-1.23	1.93
127	Jim Kelly	BUF	1994	63.6%	10.9	1.09	-0.83	1.91
128	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1967	56.7%	13.0	1.35	-0.56	1.91
129	Jim Zorn	SEA	1981	59.4%	11.8	0.99	-0.90	1.90
130	Len Dawson	KAN	1974	58.7%	11.4	1.02	-0.87	1.89
131	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1989	59.1%	11.7	0.59	-1.30	1.89
132	John Brodie	SFO	1968	57.9%	12.9	1.33	-0.56	1.89
133	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1973	53.1%	9.6	-0.42	-2.31	1.89
134	Ray Lucas	NYJ	1999	59.2%	10.4	0.59	-1.29	1.88
135	Philip Rivers	SDG	2013	69.5%	11.8	2.08	0.20	1.88
136	Billy Kilmer	NOR	1970	57%	11.5	0.98	-0.90	1.88
137	Jim McMahon	MIN	1993	60.4%	9.8	0.44	-1.44	1.88
138	Ken Stabler	NOR	1982	61.9%	11.5	1.00	-0.88	1.87
139	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2002	68.9%	11.3	1.88	0.02	1.87
140	Troy Aikman	DAL	1992	63.8%	11.4	1.18	-0.68	1.86
141	Bobby Hebert	NOR	1988	58.6%	11.3	0.75	-1.10	1.85
142	Norm Snead	PHI	1968	52.2%	10.9	0.27	-1.58	1.85
143	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1987	59.5%	11.5	0.75	-1.10	1.85
144	Jeff Garcia	SFO	2002	62.1%	10.2	0.52	-1.32	1.85
145	Drew Brees	NOR	2015	68.3%	11.4	1.50	-0.35	1.84
146	Bobby Hebert	ATL	1996	60.2%	10.7	0.66	-1.15	1.81
147	Brian Griese	DEN	2001	61%	10.3	0.42	-1.39	1.81
148	Dan Marino	MIA	1985	59.3%	12.3	1.28	-0.53	1.81
149	Jeff Hostetler	NYG	1991	62.8%	11.4	1.13	-0.67	1.80
150	Philip Rivers	SDG	2015	66.1%	11.0	0.89	-0.90	1.79
151	Brian Griese	DEN	2002	66.7%	11.0	1.45	-0.33	1.78
152	Tony Eason	NWE	1986	61.6%	12.1	1.39	-0.39	1.78
153	Matt Ryan	ATL	2010	62.5%	10.4	0.37	-1.41	1.78
154	Danny White	DAL	1983	62.7%	11.9	1.08	-0.70	1.77
155	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2006	64.5%	10.7	1.12	-0.66	1.77
156	Jim Everett	NOR	1994	64.1%	11.1	1.17	-0.60	1.77
157	John Brodie	SFO	1966	54.3%	12.1	0.65	-1.11	1.76
158	David Carr	HOU	2005	60.5%	9.7	0.12	-1.64	1.76
159	Rich Gannon	OAK	2002	67.6%	11.2	1.63	-0.13	1.76
160	Sam Bradford	PHI	2015	65%	10.8	0.58	-1.17	1.75
161	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1973	61.7%	12.5	1.64	-0.11	1.75
162	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	2012	67.2%	11.6	1.60	-0.15	1.75
163	Daunte Culpepper	MIN	2001	64.2%	11.1	1.32	-0.43	1.74
164	Steve McNair	BAL	2006	63%	10.3	0.76	-0.98	1.74
165	Gary Cuozzo	NOR	1967	51.5%	11.7	0.25	-1.49	1.74
166	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1986	62.2%	12.3	1.54	-0.20	1.74
167	Alex Smith	KAN	2016	67.1%	10.7	0.88	-0.85	1.73
168	Steve Young	SFO	1994	70.3%	12.3	2.29	0.58	1.71
169	Brad Johnson	MIN	2005	62.6%	10.2	0.55	-1.14	1.70
170	Archie Manning	NOR	1977	55.1%	11.4	0.61	-1.09	1.69
171	Dave Krieg	SEA	1987	60.5%	12.0	0.99	-0.70	1.69
172	Kent Graham	NYG	1999	59%	10.6	0.54	-1.13	1.67
173	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1972	56.9%	12.3	1.09	-0.58	1.67
174	Neil Lomax	STL	1986	57%	10.8	0.24	-1.42	1.67
175	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	2011	62%	10.9	0.48	-1.18	1.66
176	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2004	65.4%	11.0	1.01	-0.65	1.66
177	Richard Todd	NYJ	1983	59.5%	11.3	0.41	-1.24	1.65
178	Joe Namath	NYJ	1976	49.6%	9.6	-0.51	-2.15	1.65
179	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1991	62.1%	11.4	0.98	-0.67	1.65
180	Bert Jones	BAL	1977	57%	12.0	1.02	-0.62	1.64
181	Sam Bradford	STL	2010	60%	9.9	-0.28	-1.91	1.63
182	Joey Harrington	DET	2003	55.8%	9.3	-0.84	-2.47	1.63
183	Steve DeBerg	SFO	1980	57.9%	10.7	0.28	-1.35	1.63
184	Bob Griese	MIA	1977	58.6%	12.5	1.39	-0.24	1.62
185	Peyton Manning	IND	2009	68.8%	11.5	1.50	-0.11	1.62
186	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1988	60.2%	12.1	1.07	-0.54	1.61
187	Brad Johnson	WAS	2000	62.5%	11.0	0.90	-0.70	1.61
188	Steve Fuller	KAN	1979	54.1%	10.2	-0.10	-1.70	1.60
189	Dave Krieg	SEA	1989	57.3%	11.6	0.18	-1.41	1.59
190	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1974	56.7%	11.2	0.59	-1.00	1.59
191	Rodney Peete	DET	1993	62.3%	10.6	0.83	-0.75	1.58
192	Bart Starr	GNB	1966	62.2%	14.5	1.97	0.40	1.58
193	Bill Munson	DET	1974	56.8%	11.3	0.63	-0.95	1.57
194	Kent Nix	PIT	1967	50.7%	11.7	0.08	-1.49	1.56
195	Jon Kitna	DAL	2010	65.7%	11.3	1.20	-0.37	1.56
196	Chad Pennington	MIA	2008	67.4%	11.4	1.50	-0.06	1.56
197	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1988	55.7%	10.9	0.20	-1.36	1.56
198	Gary Danielson	DET	1978	56.7%	11.5	0.65	-0.90	1.56
199	Alex Smith	KAN	2014	65.3%	10.8	0.66	-0.89	1.55
200	Kyle Orton	BUF	2014	64.2%	10.5	0.36	-1.19	1.55

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the opposite result: any guesses as to the leaders in that category?

Tagged as: Sam Bradford

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