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Cam Newton And Rushing First Downs

Building on yesterday’s post, one reason the average football fan undervalues quarterback running is because yards per carry for quarterbacks is misleading.  It’s natural to want to compare a quarterback’s yards per pass average to his yards per rush attempt average; in almost all cases, the Y/A number will be higher, so it doesn’t feel like having 30 pass attempts and 5 runs is better than 35 pass attempts.

But yards per carry also undersells the value of the average quarterback run. Russell Wilson, for example, has 585 career runs for 3,296 yards, a 5.63 average.  But 84 of his career rushing attempts were actually kneel downs that lost 95 yards; remove those, and Wilson’s yards per carry average jumps to 6.77.  Wilson has also picked up a first down on 39% of his runs, which is extremely valuable, as no offense averages such a high first down rate.  By comparison, Wilson has averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt and a 37% first down rate on pass attempts, which drops to 6.65 and 34% once you include sacks. [1]I note that it gets into a gray area here: if we include scrambles as runs, but only include sacks in the pass attempts column, we are biasing things in the direction of runs.

There’s no doubt that Wilson adds a lot of value as a runner, but Cam Newton adds even more.  Remove kneels, and Cam has 783 career rushing attempts for 4,545 rushing yards, a 5.80 YPC average.  But where he really shines is in first down rate: Newton has picked up a first down on a whopping 44% of all rushing plays since entering the NFL.  That’s higher than any running back on rushing plays or any quarterback on passing plays! Over a long period, a great quarterback will top out at around 40-41% of pass attempts (excluding sacks) going for first downs; for Newton to convert 44% of his rushing plays into first downs is remarkable, and shows the value he has added as a runner.

Adding in his rushing first downs brings Newton’s overall first down rate up from 33%, which is right around average, to 35%, which is solidly above average.

The table below shows Newton, Wilson, and the 48 running backs with the most carries since 2011. It is sorted by first down rate.

RkPlayerRushYdYPC1D1D Rt
1Cam Newton78345455.834443.9%
2Russell Wilson50133916.7719538.9%
3Ezekiel Elliott61228884.7216426.8%
4Devonta Freeman75932844.3320326.7%
5Jordan Howard58126134.515126%
6Jamaal Charles91446125.0523125.3%
7Le'Veon Bell122953364.3429624.1%
8Ahmad Bradshaw55423704.2813324%
9DeMarco Murray160471744.4738323.9%
10Stevan Ridley71830424.2417023.7%
11LeSean McCoy183984364.5943423.6%
12Mark Ingram118353624.5327723.4%
13Marshawn Lynch154768354.4236123.3%
14Ryan Mathews102645834.4723422.8%
15Jeremy Hill70828984.0916122.7%
16Bilal Powell74232424.3716822.6%
17Fred Jackson65828864.3914722.3%
18C.J. Anderson70531264.4315722.3%
19Melvin Gordon76129153.8316822.1%
20Alfred Morris130256564.3428622%
21Justin Forsett58827484.6712921.9%
22Joique Bell56422413.9712321.8%
23Jonathan Stewart112245964.124421.7%
24LeGarrette Blount116849644.2525421.7%
25Arian Foster109546544.2523721.6%
26Adrian Peterson143267304.730921.6%
27James Starks58924054.0812721.6%
28Carlos Hyde71629324.0915421.5%
29Todd Gurley86536344.218621.5%
30BenJarvus Green-Ellis67925173.7114621.5%
31Eddie Lacy85736144.2218421.5%
32Latavius Murray77831844.0916421.1%
33Isaiah Crowell77532894.2416220.9%
34DeAngelo Williams88938854.3718520.8%
35Matt Forte154565604.2532020.7%
36Giovani Bernard70729864.2214620.7%
37Maurice Jones-Drew70629194.1314520.5%
38Lamar Miller118850674.2724320.5%
39Frank Gore187977104.137820.1%
40Rashad Jennings80731113.8616120%
41Chris Ivory100042024.219919.9%
42C.J. Spiller63831684.9712619.7%
43Shonn Greene70028044.0113619.4%
44Doug Martin117047204.0322319.1%
45Reggie Bush76234004.4614519%
46Steven Jackson88634903.9416819%
47Darren McFadden86234083.9515518%
48Ray Rice76231674.1613417.6%
49Chris Johnson123850534.0821517.4%
50Trent Richardson61420323.319315.1%

What formula would you create to help properly capture a quarterback’s rushing value?

References

References
1 I note that it gets into a gray area here: if we include scrambles as runs, but only include sacks in the pass attempts column, we are biasing things in the direction of runs.
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