In 2017, Indianapolis ranked 30th in points and 31st in yards. The Colts also ranked 29th in Net Yards per Attempt and 31st in touchdown passes.
This year, with Andrew Luck back, the Colts rank 5th in points and 9th in yards, while ranking 13th in NY/A and 2nd in touchdown passes. No offense has improved more from 2017 to 2018 than the Colts, and Luck is a big reason why.
Early on this season, it looked like there was something wrong with Luck; through 3 games, he was averaging just 5.34 yards per attempt! Since then, he’s upped his average to 7.63 yards per attempt; that’s actually below the median over that time frame, but coupled with his stellar sack rate and remarkable TD/INT numbers, and he’s been a very valuable quarterback over the last two months.
There are three remarkable Luck numbers this season, but chances are you have only heard of two of them. The Colts star has now gone five straight games without a sack, making him just the 5th player since 1981 to go five straight games with 20+ pass attempts and zero sacks. And Luck has thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in seven straight games, a feat that puts him in even rarer company.
But perhaps the biggest reason for the Colts success right now is how excellent Luck has been on third downs. On average, teams have picked up a first down on 36.9% of all third down pass plays this year. Luck has done it at a rate of 51.9%, making him the most valuable third down passer this season.
| Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Sk | 1D | 1D/Cmp | 1D/PassPlay | 1D ovr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 71 | 106 | 67% | 2 | 56 | 78.9% | 51.9 | 16.2 |
| Matt Ryan | 77 | 105 | 73.3% | 15 | 57 | 74% | 47.5 | 12.8 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 50 | 81 | 61.7% | 7 | 43 | 86% | 48.9 | 10.6 |
| Drew Brees | 53 | 80 | 66.3% | 7 | 39 | 73.6% | 44.8 | 6.9 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 62 | 97 | 63.9% | 5 | 43 | 69.4% | 42.2 | 5.4 |
| Jameis Winston | 20 | 32 | 62.5% | 4 | 18 | 90% | 50 | 4.7 |
| Jared Goff | 58 | 85 | 68.2% | 11 | 39 | 67.2% | 40.6 | 3.6 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 32 | 51 | 62.7% | 4 | 23 | 71.9% | 41.8 | 2.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 60 | 101 | 59.4% | 11 | 44 | 73.3% | 39.3 | 2.7 |
| Kirk Cousins | 65 | 104 | 62.5% | 14 | 46 | 70.8% | 39 | 2.5 |
| Cam Newton | 42 | 72 | 58.3% | 7 | 31 | 73.8% | 39.2 | 1.9 |
| Marcus Mariota | 37 | 62 | 59.7% | 17 | 31 | 83.8% | 39.2 | 1.9 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 45 | 74 | 60.8% | 11 | 33 | 73.3% | 38.8 | 1.7 |
| Blake Bortles | 57 | 100 | 57% | 7 | 41 | 71.9% | 38.3 | 1.6 |
| Carson Wentz | 43 | 73 | 58.9% | 8 | 31 | 72.1% | 38.3 | 1.1 |
| Brock Osweiler | 36 | 54 | 66.7% | 6 | 23 | 63.9% | 38.3 | 0.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 56 | 92 | 60.9% | 6 | 37 | 66.1% | 37.8 | 0.9 |
| Philip Rivers | 52 | 89 | 58.4% | 5 | 35 | 67.3% | 37.2 | 0.4 |
| Andy Dalton | 39 | 78 | 50% | 10 | 31 | 79.5% | 35.2 | -1.4 |
| Eli Manning | 69 | 94 | 73.4% | 13 | 38 | 55.1% | 35.5 | -1.4 |
| Alex Smith | 62 | 98 | 63.3% | 7 | 37 | 59.7% | 35.2 | -1.7 |
| Tom Brady | 41 | 80 | 51.3% | 9 | 31 | 75.6% | 34.8 | -1.8 |
| Baker Mayfield | 50 | 80 | 62.5% | 9 | 31 | 62% | 34.8 | -1.8 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 52 | 87 | 59.8% | 16 | 36 | 69.2% | 35 | -2.0 |
| Russell Wilson | 48 | 82 | 58.5% | 13 | 33 | 68.8% | 34.7 | -2.0 |
| Derek Carr | 51 | 78 | 65.4% | 19 | 33 | 64.7% | 34 | -2.8 |
| C.J. Beathard | 20 | 40 | 50% | 10 | 15 | 75% | 30 | -3.4 |
| Deshaun Watson | 50 | 89 | 56.2% | 10 | 33 | 66% | 33.3 | -3.5 |
| Josh Allen | 22 | 44 | 50% | 10 | 16 | 72.7% | 29.6 | -3.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 20 | 37 | 54.1% | 6 | 11 | 55% | 25.6 | -4.8 |
| Josh Rosen | 31 | 64 | 48.4% | 6 | 20 | 64.5% | 28.6 | -5.8 |
| Sam Darnold | 40 | 82 | 48.8% | 8 | 27 | 67.5% | 30 | -6.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 59 | 93 | 63.4% | 16 | 32 | 54.2% | 29.4 | -8.2 |
| Case Keenum | 46 | 83 | 55.4% | 13 | 26 | 56.5% | 27.1 | -9.4 |
Luck has faced shorter distances on third down than the average passer, which may also reflect the Colts tendency to pass on third and short. But still, his third down success has been outstanding (whether that is sustainable is a different question). He’s picked up 16.9 more first downs than the average passer would have gained (given the same number of attempts), and has helped resurrect one of 2017’s worst offenses.