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Below is a scatter plot showing the Game Scripts (on the X-Axis) and pass ratio (on the Y-Axis) of every game so far this season. I have also provided a best-fit line:

Unsurprisingly, there’s a negative correlation between Game Script and Pass Ratio. In general, teams are expected to pass about 3% less often for every 4 points of Game Script. In other words, based on six weeks worth of 2018 data, with a Game Script of +7.5, teams are expected to pass 54.7% of the time; at +11.5, the expected pass ratio would be 51.7%.

The table below shows the results from each game this season. It is sorted from most run-happy to least. The Bills/Titans game leads the way by a large margin. In that game, Buffalo had a Game Script of +2.5, which means you would expect the Bills to pass on 58.3% of plays; instead, Buffalo passed on just 31.7% of plays, a difference of 26.6%. That makes it the most run-heavy game of the year, which we wrote about at the time.

WkTeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptW/LPassRunExpPRP/R RatioDiff
5BUFTENBoxscore131212.5Win204358.3%31.7%26.6%
3CARCINBoxscore3121104.1Win254257.2%37.3%19.9%
3TEN@JAXBoxscore9631.5Win243559.1%40.7%18.4%
5SEALARBoxscore3133-20.9Loss233259.5%41.8%17.7%
5NYJDENBoxscore3416187.6Win233854.6%37.7%16.9%
3SFO@KANBoxscore2738-11-12.7Loss342969.6%54%15.7%
3WASGNBBoxscore31171411.6Win203551.6%36.4%15.3%
2TENHOUBoxscore201736.4Win233455.5%40.4%15.2%
1HOU@NWEBoxscore2027-7-10.1Loss383467.7%52.8%14.9%
4MIA@NWEBoxscore738-31-18.9Loss271874.2%60%14.2%
6SFO@GNBBoxscore3033-31.5Loss253059.1%45.5%13.6%
4SEA@ARIBoxscore201732Win283458.7%45.2%13.6%
1NYJ@DETBoxscore48173111.5Win233651.7%39%12.7%
3SEADALBoxscore2413117.8Win283954.5%41.8%12.7%
4DALDETBoxscore262421.6Win313559.1%47%12.1%
4ARISEABoxscore1720-3-2Loss282861.7%50%11.7%
6LAC@CLEBoxscore38142414.3Win223649.6%37.9%11.7%
1BUF@BALBoxscore347-44-24.4Loss402078.3%66.7%11.6%
6JAX@DALBoxscore740-33-17.3Loss291873%61.7%11.3%
3CHI@ARIBoxscore16142-7.1Win383165.4%55.1%10.4%
2ATLCARBoxscore312474.7Win283256.8%46.7%10.1%
6BUF@HOUBoxscore1320-7-4.3Loss312763.4%53.4%10%
4TAM@CHIBoxscore1048-38-26.3Loss421879.6%70%9.6%
6SEA@OAKBoxscore2732415.4Win243748.8%39.3%9.5%
1TAM@NORBoxscore484087.6Win283454.6%45.2%9.5%
5TEN@BUFBoxscore1213-1-2.5Loss282562.1%52.8%9.3%
6CHI@MIABoxscore2831-3-0.5Loss333160.6%51.6%9%
3CLENYJBoxscore21174-5.4Win413364.2%55.4%8.8%
6NYJINDBoxscore423485.9Win323655.8%47.1%8.8%
2NWE@JAXBoxscore2031-11-12.2Loss372469.3%60.7%8.6%
5LAR@SEABoxscore33312-0.9Win333060.9%52.4%8.5%
6LAR@DENBoxscore232038Win333954.3%45.8%8.5%
5CINMIABoxscore271710-4.6Win322663.6%55.2%8.4%
1CLEPITBoxscore21210-4.7Tie473863.7%55.3%8.4%
2DENOAKBoxscore20191-6Win362864.7%56.3%8.4%
5DAL@HOUBoxscore1619-30.2Loss312960%51.7%8.4%
1CARDALBoxscore16886Win293255.8%47.5%8.2%
1MIATENBoxscore272073.2Win292957.8%50%7.8%
2MIA@NYJBoxscore201288.9Win273153.7%46.6%7.1%
6NWEKANBoxscore434035.4Win373856.2%49.3%6.9%
2HOU@TENBoxscore1720-3-6.4Loss362664.9%58.1%6.8%
2BUFLACBoxscore2031-11-14.2Loss392270.7%63.9%6.8%
1WAS@ARIBoxscore2461812.9Win334250.6%44%6.6%
3NWE@DETBoxscore1026-16-7.9Loss281966%59.6%6.4%
1SFO@MINBoxscore1624-8-7.1Loss362565.4%59%6.4%
1TEN@MIABoxscore2027-7-3.2Loss382962.6%56.7%5.9%
6DALJAXBoxscore4073317.3Win304247.4%41.7%5.7%
2ARI@LARBoxscore034-34-14.4Loss281570.9%65.1%5.7%
5LACOAKBoxscore2610169.7Win283153%47.5%5.6%
6OAKSEABoxscore327-24-15.4Loss371971.6%66.1%5.5%
4NOR@NYGBoxscore3318153.3Win353257.7%52.2%5.5%
3PHIINDBoxscore201640.5Win423559.8%54.5%5.3%
3LAC@LARBoxscore2335-12-8.8Loss322066.7%61.5%5.2%
3BUF@MINBoxscore2762121.2Win253844.5%39.7%4.8%
6TENBALBoxscore021-21-12.5Loss261469.4%65%4.4%
3NYJ@CLEBoxscore1721-45.4Loss333056.2%52.4%3.9%
5PITATLBoxscore4117248.6Win292953.8%50%3.8%
1DENSEABoxscore272431.8Win403258.9%55.6%3.3%
1DAL@CARBoxscore816-8-6Loss352264.7%61.4%3.3%
2CLE@NORBoxscore1821-32.7Loss332758.2%55%3.2%
3DEN@BALBoxscore1427-13-4.9Loss372463.8%60.7%3.1%
5ARI@SFOBoxscore2818105.7Win262356%53.1%2.9%
2SFODETBoxscore302735.4Win322856.2%53.3%2.9%
4LACSFOBoxscore29272-3.1Win402762.5%59.7%2.8%
1PHIATLBoxscore18126-0.5Win372760.6%57.8%2.8%
1LAR@OAKBoxscore3313201.1Win342659.4%56.7%2.7%
2DALNYGBoxscore2013710.1Win252552.7%50%2.7%
5CARNYGBoxscore333125.1Win363156.4%53.7%2.7%
1JAX@NYGBoxscore201553.6Win342857.5%54.8%2.7%
1CIN@INDBoxscore342311-3.1Win302062.5%60%2.5%
1KAN@LACBoxscore3828109.2Win282753.4%50.9%2.5%
3LARLACBoxscore3523128.8Win373553.7%51.4%2.3%
6ARI@MINBoxscore1727-10-7.7Loss352065.9%63.6%2.3%
3DETNWEBoxscore2610167.9Win373354.4%52.9%1.5%
5SFOARIBoxscore1828-10-5.7Loss583464.5%63%1.4%
6MIACHIBoxscore312830.5Win443159.8%58.7%1.2%
2IND@WASBoxscore219127.7Win322854.5%53.3%1.2%
5HOUDALBoxscore19163-0.2Win453160.4%59.2%1.2%
5WAS@NORBoxscore1943-24-14.7Loss421871.1%70%1.1%
4CLE@OAKBoxscore4245-31.4Loss433159.1%58.1%1%
5NORWASBoxscore43192414.7Win303249.3%48.4%0.9%
6MINARIBoxscore2717107.7Win373254.5%53.6%0.9%
3OAK@MIABoxscore2028-82.8Loss433258.1%57.3%0.8%
3MIAOAKBoxscore28208-2.8Win241562.3%61.5%0.8%
2OAK@DENBoxscore1920-16Loss332755.8%55%0.8%
1PIT@CLEBoxscore212104.7Tie453556.7%56.3%0.5%
2PHI@TAMBoxscore2127-6-10.9Loss512468.3%68%0.3%
1MINSFOBoxscore241687.1Win393255%54.9%0.1%
4JAXNYJBoxscore3112198.2Win403454.1%54.1%0.1%
6CLELACBoxscore1438-24-14.3Loss512170.8%70.8%0%
1NYGJAXBoxscore1520-5-3.6Loss392362.9%62.9%0%
2NORCLEBoxscore21183-2.7Win382362.2%62.3%-0.1%
2SEA@CHIBoxscore1724-7-7.1Loss422265.5%65.6%-0.1%
3NYG@HOUBoxscore272257.5Win332754.7%55%-0.3%
5DETGNBBoxscore3123813.1Win292850.5%50.9%-0.4%
4NWEMIABoxscore3873118.9Win354046.2%46.7%-0.5%
2KAN@PITBoxscore423759.4Win292553.2%53.7%-0.5%
6IND@NYJBoxscore3442-8-5.9Loss432364.6%65.2%-0.5%
1ARIWASBoxscore624-18-12.9Loss361569.8%70.6%-0.8%
6HOUBUFBoxscore201374.3Win332457%57.9%-0.9%
4DET@DALBoxscore2426-2-1.6Loss332061.4%62.3%-0.9%
2LARARIBoxscore3403414.4Win343349.6%50.7%-1.2%
3DAL@SEABoxscore1324-11-7.8Loss391966%67.2%-1.3%
4BUF@GNBBoxscore022-22-12.7Loss401669.6%71.4%-1.9%
4HOU@INDBoxscore373435.1Win493556.5%58.3%-1.9%
2CHISEABoxscore241777.1Win362754.9%57.1%-2.2%
4KAN@DENBoxscore27234-1.8Win462661.6%63.9%-2.3%
1GNBCHIBoxscore24231-9.3Win411867.1%69.5%-2.4%
6CAR@WASBoxscore1723-6-9.2Loss411867%69.5%-2.4%
6NYGPHIBoxscore1334-21-14.5Loss471771%73.4%-2.5%
3ATLNORBoxscore3743-6-0.3Loss382260.5%63.3%-2.9%
2NYJMIABoxscore1220-8-8.9Loss441966.8%69.8%-3.1%
2WASINDBoxscore921-12-7.7Loss492265.9%69%-3.1%
4ATLCINBoxscore3637-1-0.4Loss422460.5%63.6%-3.1%
1LACKANBoxscore2838-10-9.2Loss522267%70.3%-3.2%
5CLEBALBoxscore12930.6Win482859.8%63.2%-3.4%
3BALDENBoxscore2714134.9Win422856.6%60%-3.4%
3HOUNYGBoxscore2227-5-7.5Loss431965.7%69.4%-3.6%
6TAM@ATLBoxscore2934-5-5.9Loss432064.6%68.3%-3.7%
6KAN@NWEBoxscore4043-3-5.4Loss361764.2%67.9%-3.7%
5GNB@DETBoxscore2331-8-13.1Loss562069.9%73.7%-3.8%
4BAL@PITBoxscore2614126.2Win443055.6%59.5%-3.8%
4DENKANBoxscore2327-41.8Loss372258.8%62.7%-3.9%
2LAC@BUFBoxscore31201114.2Win292549.7%53.7%-4%
5PHIMINBoxscore2123-2-6.5Loss381765.1%69.1%-4%
1NWEHOUBoxscore2720710.1Win413152.7%56.9%-4.2%
2BAL@CINBoxscore2334-11-11.2Loss592268.5%72.8%-4.3%
1OAKLARBoxscore1333-20-1.1Loss422261%65.6%-4.6%
3JAXTENBoxscore69-3-1.5Loss371961.3%66.1%-4.8%
6WASCARBoxscore231769.2Win392853.4%58.2%-4.8%
6PHI@NYGBoxscore34132114.5Win373149.5%54.4%-5%
3NOR@ATLBoxscore433760.3Win502760%64.9%-5%
5IND@NWEBoxscore2438-14-12Loss602169.1%74.1%-5%
3GNB@WASBoxscore1731-14-11.6Loss481768.8%73.8%-5.1%
6DENLARBoxscore2023-3-8Loss431766.1%71.7%-5.6%
4LARMINBoxscore383174Win342057.3%63%-5.7%
1CHI@GNBBoxscore2324-19.3Loss392753.4%59.1%-5.7%
4CIN@ATLBoxscore373610.4Win442359.9%65.7%-5.8%
4CHITAMBoxscore48103826.3Win273140.8%46.6%-5.8%
5ATL@PITBoxscore1741-24-8.6Loss501966.6%72.5%-5.9%
4GNBBUFBoxscore2202212.7Win423250.8%56.8%-5.9%
5OAK@LACBoxscore1026-16-9.7Loss361367.4%73.5%-6.1%
4NYJ@JAXBoxscore1231-19-8.2Loss371466.3%72.5%-6.2%
4TENPHIBoxscore26233-1.4Win462261.3%67.6%-6.4%
5NYG@CARBoxscore3133-2-5.1Loss381664%70.4%-6.4%
5KANJAXBoxscore30141613.7Win393050.1%56.5%-6.4%
4SFO@LACBoxscore2729-23.1Loss382157.9%64.4%-6.5%
4OAKCLEBoxscore45423-1.4Win612961.3%67.8%-6.5%
5MIA@CINBoxscore1727-104.6Loss382256.8%63.3%-6.5%
2NYG@DALBoxscore1320-7-10.1Loss501767.7%74.6%-6.9%
5MIN@PHIBoxscore232126.5Win382355.4%62.3%-6.9%
3KANSFOBoxscore38271112.7Win392850.8%58.2%-7.4%
3ARICHIBoxscore1416-27.1Loss301855%62.5%-7.5%
2CINBALBoxscore34231111.2Win422851.9%60%-8.1%
2TAMPHIBoxscore2721610.9Win352352.2%60.3%-8.2%
6PIT@CINBoxscore282170.8Win452159.6%68.2%-8.6%
2CAR@ATLBoxscore2431-7-4.7Loss471863.7%72.3%-8.7%
6GNBSFOBoxscore33303-1.5Win492161.3%70%-8.7%
6BAL@TENBoxscore2102112.5Win372551%59.7%-8.7%
1DETNYJBoxscore1748-31-11.5Loss521568.7%77.6%-8.9%
2GNBMINBoxscore292904.8Tie462456.6%65.7%-9.1%
5JAX@KANBoxscore1430-16-13.7Loss661770.3%79.5%-9.2%
1SEA@DENBoxscore2427-3-1.8Loss391661.5%70.9%-9.4%
5BAL@CLEBoxscore912-3-0.6Loss592560.6%70.2%-9.6%
2MIN@GNBBoxscore29290-4.8Tie501863.8%73.5%-9.7%
6ATLTAMBoxscore342955.9Win422255.9%65.6%-9.8%
3TAMPITBoxscore2730-3-8.4Loss531666.4%76.8%-10.4%
5DEN@NYJBoxscore1634-18-7.6Loss551765.8%76.4%-10.6%
3PIT@TAMBoxscore302738.4Win412254%65.1%-11.1%
2DET@SFOBoxscore2730-3-5.4Loss551864.2%75.3%-11.1%
4NYGNORBoxscore1833-15-3.3Loss441562.7%74.6%-11.9%
1BALBUFBoxscore4734424.4Win403442.1%54.1%-11.9%
4PHI@TENBoxscore2326-31.4Loss542259.1%71.1%-11.9%
1NORTAMBoxscore4048-8-7.6Loss461365.8%78%-12.2%
1ATL@PHIBoxscore1218-60.5Loss471859.8%72.3%-12.5%
4MIN@LARBoxscore3138-7-4Loss541763.2%76.1%-12.9%
1INDCINBoxscore2334-113.1Loss552257.9%71.4%-13.5%
2JAXNWEBoxscore31201112.2Win452451.2%65.2%-14.1%
2PITKANBoxscore3742-5-9.4Loss611467.2%81.3%-14.1%
5NWEINDBoxscore38241412Win442351.3%65.7%-14.3%
3MINBUFBoxscore627-21-21.2Loss59675.9%90.8%-14.9%
3CIN@CARBoxscore2131-10-4.1Loss481363.2%78.7%-15.5%
4INDHOUBoxscore3437-3-5.1Loss661764%79.5%-15.6%
3IND@PHIBoxscore1620-4-0.5Loss431360.6%76.8%-16.2%
4PITBALBoxscore1426-12-6.2Loss481164.8%81.4%-16.6%
6CINPITBoxscore2128-7-0.8Loss451360.8%77.6%-16.8%

And finally, here are the full season ratings. The Bills, Titans, Seahawks, 49ers, and Jets are the five most run-heavy teams this season. Meanwhile, the AFC North has three of the most pass-happy teams in the NFL:

RkTeamGAvg GSAvg Pass RatioExp Pass RatioRush Identity
1BUF6-5.354.5%64.1%9.6%
2TEN6-253.9%61.7%7.8%
3SEA62.950.8%58.1%7.3%
4SFO6-2.656.5%62.1%5.6%
5NYJ62.253.1%58.6%5.5%
6DAL62.653.2%58.3%5.2%
7MIA6-0.856.7%60.8%4.1%
8CAR50.356.1%60%3.9%
9WAS52.355.5%58.5%3%
10CLE6-3.359.6%62.6%3%
11LAC62.855.1%58.1%3%
12HOU6-2.559.3%62%2.8%
13LAR65.953.3%55.9%2.5%
14ARI6-460.8%63.2%2.4%
15CHI5753.9%55%1.1%
16NWE64.456.5%57%0.5%
17TAM5-4.464.1%63.5%-0.6%
18DEN6-3.863.9%63%-0.9%
19OAK6-3.164.2%62.5%-1.7%
20PHI6-0.262.5%60.4%-2.1%
21NOR51.661.2%59%-2.2%
22JAX6-1.463.6%61.2%-2.3%
23KAN66.358.5%55.5%-3%
24DET50.563.8%59.8%-4%
25ATL60.364%60%-4%
26NYG6-4.968.5%63.8%-4.7%
27GNB6-368.2%62.4%-5.8%
28CIN6-0.166.2%60.3%-5.9%
29BAL6662.7%55.8%-7%
30MIN6-1.568.5%61.3%-7.2%
31PIT61.267%59.4%-7.7%
32IND6-2.170%61.8%-8.3%

Oh, and perhaps the most surprising result: the Bears have the best average Game Script this season, based mostly on the demolition over Tampa Bay.

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