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2017 Approximate Value Released

With the All-Pro votes now in, the initial 2017 Approximate Value numbers have been released by PFR. Thanks to the tireless work of Mike Kania and the P-F-R staff, PFR has now generated the Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, you can thank Mike and/or the PFR staff on twitter.

Here are your leaders:

 
Games Misc
Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS Yrs PB AP1 AV
1 Tom Brady 2017 40 6-199 NWE NFL 16 16 1 1 1 19
2 Todd Gurley 2017 23 1-10 LAR NFL 15 15 1 1 1 19
3 Drew Brees 2017 38 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 1 1 0 17
4 Melvin Ingram 2017 28 1-18 LAC NFL 16 16 1 0 0 17
5 Cameron Jordan 2017 28 1-24 NOR NFL 16 16 1 1 1 17
6 Alex Smith 2017 33 1-1 KAN NFL 15 15 1 0 0 17
7 Bobby Wagner 2017 27 2-47 SEA NFL 16 16 1 1 1 17
8 Calais Campbell 2017 31 2-50 JAX NFL 16 16 1 1 1 16
9 Everson Griffen 2017 30 4-100 MIN NFL 15 15 1 1 0 16
10 Alvin Kamara 2017 22 3-67 NOR NFL 16 3 1 1 0 16
11 C.J. Mosley 2017 25 1-17 BAL NFL 16 16 1 1 0 16
12 Russell Wilson 2017 29 3-75 SEA NFL 16 16 1 1 0 16
13 Le’Veon Bell 2017 25 2-48 PIT NFL 15 15 1 1 1 15
14 Aaron Donald 2017 26 1-13 LAR NFL 14 14 1 1 1 15
15 Jared Goff 2017 23 1-1 LAR NFL 15 15 1 0 0 15
16 Cameron Heyward 2017 28 1-31 PIT NFL 15 15 1 0 1 15
17 Kareem Hunt 2017 22 3-86 KAN NFL 16 16 1 1 0 15
18 Chandler Jones 2017 27 1-21 ARI NFL 16 16 1 1 1 15
19 Jason Kelce 2017 30 6-191 PHI NFL 16 16 1 0 1 15
20 Luke Kuechly 2017 26 1-9 CAR NFL 15 15 1 1 1 15
21 Cam Newton 2017 28 1-1 CAR NFL 16 16 1 0 0 15
22 Jalen Ramsey 2017 23 1-5 JAX NFL 16 16 1 1 1 15
23 Matt Ryan 2017 32 1-3 ATL NFL 16 16 1 0 0 15
24 Telvin Smith 2017 26 5-144 JAX NFL 14 14 1 0 0 15
25 Matthew Stafford 2017 29 1-1 DET NFL 16 16 1 0 0 15
26 Andrew Whitworth 2017 36 2-55 LAR NFL 15 15 1 0 1 15
27 Antonio Brown 2017 29 6-195 PIT NFL 14 14 1 1 1 14
28 Fletcher Cox 2017 27 1-12 PHI NFL 14 14 1 1 0 14
29 David DeCastro 2017 27 1-24 PIT NFL 15 15 1 1 1 14
30 Mark Ingram 2017 28 1-28 NOR NFL 16 13 1 1 0 14
31 Lane Johnson 2017 27 1-4 PHI NFL 15 15 1 1 1 14
32 Julio Jones 2017 28 1-6 ATL NFL 16 16 1 1 0 14
33 Case Keenum 2017 29 MIN NFL 15 14 1 0 0 14
34 Demarcus Lawrence 2017 25 2-34 DAL NFL 16 16 1 1 0 14
35 Alex Mack 2017 32 1-21 ATL NFL 16 16 1 1 0 14
36 Andrew Norwell 2017 26 CAR NFL 16 16 1 0 1 14
37 Philip Rivers 2017 36 1-4 LAC NFL 16 16 1 1 0 14
38 Ben Roethlisberger 2017 35 1-11 PIT NFL 15 15 1 1 0 14
39 Mitchell Schwartz 2017 28 2-37 KAN NFL 16 16 1 0 0 14
40 Michael Thomas 2017 24 2-47 NOR NFL 16 14 1 1 0 14
41 Carson Wentz 2017 25 1-2 PHI NFL 13 13 1 1 0 14

You can view the top 100 players here, and individual player AV by team is available as well.

{ 16 comments }
  • Rough year for the Packers – this is the first time since 1991 that they’ve had one or fewer players with a double digit AV. If not for David Bakhtiari, they’d have been shutout. Though the Packers had plenty of “…for the first time since 1991” stats this year. It wasn’t record wise, but performance wise, this was easily their worst season since the Favre-Rodgers Era started in 1992.

    Also, I think Approximate Value is a valiant attempt, but I still am not sure how I feel about it. I’ve observed too many odd scores to take it too seriously (i.e. Reggie White’s highest AV season is 19 in 1996 when he had 8.5 sacks. His 21.0 sack DPOY season in 1987 is a 15 and his 16.5 sack DPOY in 1998 is a 16). Maybe I’m just not smart enough to fully grasp all the details, but I can’t see a formula that I’d agree with that scores an 8.5 sack season 20% higher than a 21.0 sack season.

    • James

      Well, it’s approximate for a reason.

      But the biggest explanation for White’s AV in 1987 and 1996 is that the 1987 Eagles finished 23rd and 25th in yards and points allowed, while the 1996 Packers were 1st in both. Which means his 1996 team had a lot more Value to spread around, and with only one other Pro Bowler to share credit with, shouldn’t the team sack leader get a lot of credit?

      • That makes sense, but that’s a little too “approximate” for my tastes. That Packers unit was fantastic, but I don’t think that should be so dramatically attributed to each individual’s performance. It’s not like Reggie was terrorizing people and getting outraced to the quarterback that year. I remember the narrative at the time was that Reggie was slowing down and not playing that well. The Packers were only 11th in sacks, but still had the number one passing defense because their secondary played ridiculously well that year. Eugene Robinson, Doug Evans, and Leroy Butler all finished near the top of the league in interceptions. Leroy Butler had an insane statline and probably should’ve been Defensive Player of the Year that year, but his AV is lower than Reggie’s (albeit only by 1) likely because Reggie is Reggie and he fared much better in Pro Bowl and All Pro voting than his performance deserved and it supplemented his lack of production in his AV score. I get what the metric is trying to do, but I think it has some pretty major issues.

        • James

          Butler was an All Pro in 1996 while Reggie was not, which means Butler was given a bigger AV bonus than White.

          But again, the main difference is the 1987 Eagles had 90 points of AV and White had 15 compared to 2nd place’s 7, while in 1996 the Packers had 140 AV to go around and while White had 19, second place had 18, third 12, etc, and his share of the total pool was 20% smaller.

          Which gets back to Chase’s point from another article/tweet: how much value did one player really provide if the overall unit is terrible?

          • Wilson Zheng

            I don’t disagree with Chase in your final point, but I do not think AV correctly rated Reggie White’s 1996 and 1987 seasons. The major issue is that the Eagles weren’t terrible on defense at all. They ranked 13th in NY/A, 13th in YPC and 1st in turnovers. Overall, they were 5th in defensive DVOA, far ahead of their 25th rank in points allowed. Understandably, points allowed by drive is convenient to use, but its not the best method when each player’s value depends so heavily on it.

        • Richie

          In case you don’t know, AV for a defensive player uses these factors to calculate an individual player’s contribution to the defense:

          Games Played
          Games Started * 5
          Sacks
          Fumble Recoveries * 4
          Interceptions * 4
          Defensive TD * 5
          Tackles (only after 1993) *0.6 (for DL) or 0.3 (for LB) or 0 (for DB)
          All Pro/Pro Bowl (after 1981) = up to 120 points

          • That’s very helpful thank you. I think Reggie White in 1996 might just be a weird outliner because of the oddity of the 1996 Packers defense. Outside of Leroy Butler’s impressive statline, they didn’t have any extraordinary performers. They didn’t have a ton of sacks and while 3rd in turnovers, it was nothing out of the ordinary. But they had a ridiculously good scoring defense – one of the best ever. All that value has to be reflected somewhere and so Reggie White gets a huge boost because he was one of the better performers on a great scoring defense – even if his actual individual performance metrics were nothing special. Leroy Butler probably WAS more valuable to the Packers that year, but he’s slightly punished for being a DB, even though he was positioned more like an LB/DB hybrid close to the LOS – hence 6.5 sacks, 5 INTs and the second most tackles on a team that gave up the fewest yards in football.

      • Richie

        I’m pretty sure AV doesn’t care about yards allowed. The team basis for AV is points allowed per drive, compared to league average. I can’t find a handy points per drive stat for 1987, but the Eagles were 4th-worst in points per GAME. The 1996 Packers were #1. The 87 Eagles allowed twice as many points as the 96 Packers.

        And of course, 1987 was the year of replacement players, so that could help create some anomolies.

        • t.d.

          …and Buddy Ryan was notoriously disdainful of the replacement guys, so the Eagles were particularly awful in the three scab games- would’ve had a great chance at the playoffs, otherwise (thought they wouldn’t quite have made it had it been a 12 game season with the other games disregarded)

  • Joseph Holley

    Three Saints in the top 10, and 5 in the top 40, and the presumptive DROY Lattimore not one of them. Yet, with LARM, PHI, and MIN, would they even be favorites to make the NFCCG next year? It’s not like they don’t have competition in their own division, plus GB, SEA, and DAL should be good next year too.
    The NFC is loaded right now.

    • Richie

      That’s interesting. Could we be poised for another NFC run in Super Bowls? The best AFC teams (New England, Pittsburgh, Baltimore) seem like their run at the top could be coming to an end. Jacksonville is pretty young, so they could be set to be a contender. Houston might be able to get there with Watson and Hopkins. Kansas City has a few good young pieces. But those teams all seem more flawed than the NFC teams you mentioned.

      It will be interesting to see how well my post ages. Remind me to look back at this a year from now!

      • t.d.

        We should be in the midst of an NFC run, right now- it’s been the superior conference for most of this decade; the troika of Brady, Ben, and Peyton has just hidden it a lot of the time (Pats absolutely stole their last two rings from superior teams through Brady/Belicheck magic)

  • Meegs

    AV by team doesn’t seem to be working

    • McGeorge

      What is the link to team AV?

  • Richie

    Tom Brady (19) beats out Brett Favre (16) for a 40+ year old.

    He ties Peyton Manning and Steve Young for highest AV for a 36+ year old.

    Rich Gannon had a 20 AV at age 35.

    http://pfref.com/tiny/DUiGs

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