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2016 ANY/A Update

Matt Ryan is having a career year, in a not disimilar way from what Carson Palmer did last season. Thanks to a superstar receiver and an offensive coaching staff that is drawing rave reviews, Ryan is having the sort of once-in-a-career year expected from a top-3 pick.  In fact, Ryan is even ahead of Palmer’s pace from last year:

Passing
Rk Age Year Lg Tm G W L Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Sk Yds ANY/A
1 Matt Ryan 31 2016 NFL ATL 6 4 2 143 210 68.10 2075 15 3 117.9 15 98 9.52
2 Carson Palmer 35 2015 NFL CRD 6 4 2 125 193 64.77 1737 14 5 106.9 8 42 8.71

The Falcons ranked 17th in ANY/A last year, and 1st this year; Atlanta’s offensive ANY/A has jumped by 3.34 ANY/A, the biggest leap in the league. You might think the Jets — 14th in ANY/A last year, 32nd this year — would have the biggest decline, but New York’s dip is only the second worst. That’s because Palmer, who had a very lofty perch from which to fall, has been far below-average this season:

RkTeam2015 Off ANY/A2015 Rk2016 Off ANY/A2016 RkOff ANY/A Diff
1Atlanta Falcons6.18179.5213.34
2Dallas Cowboys4.99328.0533.05
3Minnesota Vikings5.62247.7152.09
4Philadelphia Eagles5.66237.2281.56
5New England Patriots7.4848.9321.45
6San Diego Chargers6.51117.8441.32
7Indianapolis Colts5.14316.21171.07
8Oakland Raiders6.16187.2191.06
9Detroit Lions6.28167.3371.06
10Tennessee Titans5.35266.30160.95
11Los Angeles Rams5.15296.06200.90
12Denver Broncos5.14305.94220.80
13New Orleans Saints7.2557.6260.37
14Cleveland Browns5.50255.75240.25
15Pittsburgh Steelers6.7196.90120.20
16Chicago Bears6.36156.51150.15
17Green Bay Packers6.07206.11180.04
18Miami Dolphins5.93215.92230.00
19New York Giants6.8286.6414-0.18
20Baltimore Ravens5.35275.0728-0.28
21Kansas City Chiefs6.44135.9821-0.45
22Washington Redskins7.2266.6913-0.53
23Seattle Seahawks7.6837.1410-0.54
24Buffalo Bills6.70106.0919-0.61
25Cincinnati Bengals7.7127.0911-0.62
26Jacksonville Jaguars6.08195.2727-0.81
27San Francisco 49ers5.35284.5231-0.83
28Houston Texans5.91224.6030-1.31
29Carolina Panthers7.1975.6325-1.56
30Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.44124.8229-1.61
31New York Jets6.38144.1632-2.23
32Arizona Cardinals8.0315.4526-2.58

Another interesting decline is in Tampa Bay. You would expect Jameis Winston and the young Bucs offense to make strides in 2016, but instead, they have declined. Winston’s interception rate is way up, and his yards per completion is way down. He’s also throwing a ton more: he’s thrown over 45 passes in 3 of 5 games this year, after doing it just once all of his rookie season.

What about defensive ANY/A? The Cardinals and Vikings were both good against the pass last year, but each defense has been even better this year.  As a result, Arizona and Minnesota rank both in the top two in ANY/A allowed and in the top two in ANY/A allowed improvement.  Also of note: the Jaguars and Titans have both quietly jumped from far below average to above average in this metric.

RkTeam2015 Def ANY/A2015 Rk2016 Def ANY/A2016 RkDef ANY/A Diff
1Minnesota Vikings6.05123.7222.34
2Arizona Cardinals5.4483.7011.73
3Baltimore Ravens6.99235.4561.54
4Jacksonville Jaguars7.00245.5071.50
5Tennessee Titans7.13285.66111.46
6New Orleans Saints8.76327.49241.27
7San Diego Chargers6.88225.68121.20
8Washington Redskins7.01256.07130.94
9Philadelphia Eagles6.44185.5690.88
10New York Giants7.15296.27140.88
11Chicago Bears7.03266.34160.69
12San Francisco 49ers7.27306.60190.67
13Buffalo Bills6.11135.5480.57
14Miami Dolphins7.04276.57180.47
15Denver Broncos4.7124.3730.34
16Seattle Seahawks5.1554.9240.23
17Dallas Cowboys6.81196.74210.07
18Cleveland Browns7.77317.9428-0.16
19Los Angeles Rams6.11146.3517-0.23
20Houston Texans5.3865.6310-0.25
21Kansas City Chiefs4.9135.185-0.28
22New England Patriots5.88106.3215-0.44
23Atlanta Falcons6.18156.7422-0.56
24Pittsburgh Steelers6.19166.8223-0.64
25Green Bay Packers5.5996.6120-1.02
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.85208.1329-1.28
27Detroit Lions6.87218.4130-1.54
28Indianapolis Colts6.34177.9127-1.57
29Oakland Raiders5.91118.5231-2.61
30Cincinnati Bengals4.9347.7526-2.82
31Carolina Panthers4.4617.7225-3.26
32New York Jets5.4078.6832-3.29

Three of the top five pass defenses from last year are in the top five this year: Denver, Kansas City, and Seattle. The other two defenses? Carolina has fallen from #1 to #25, while Cincinnati has dropped from #4 to #26. Both teams have been playoff regulars and Super Bowl contenders, but have been disasters on pass defense this season.

And yet, neither team has seen the biggest decline in pass defense: that’s because of the New York Jets, who have inexplicably fallen from 5.40 (7th) to 8.68 (32nd).

Speaking of the Jets…. New York is a remarkable outlier in the best simple stat around: ANY/A differential. The Vikings are number in this category, but are not as far from average as the Jets:

RkTeam2016 Off ANY/AOff Rk2016 Def ANY/ADef RkDiff
1Minnesota Vikings7.7153.7223.99
2Atlanta Falcons9.5216.74222.78
3New England Patriots8.9326.32152.61
4Seattle Seahawks7.14104.9242.22
5San Diego Chargers7.8445.68122.16
6Arizona Cardinals5.45263.7011.75
7Philadelphia Eagles7.2285.5691.66
8Denver Broncos5.94224.3731.57
9Dallas Cowboys8.0536.74211.31
10Kansas City Chiefs5.98215.1850.80
11Tennessee Titans6.30165.66110.63
12Washington Redskins6.69136.07130.62
13Buffalo Bills6.09195.5480.54
14New York Giants6.64146.27140.36
15Chicago Bears6.51156.34160.18
16New Orleans Saints7.6267.49240.13
17Pittsburgh Steelers6.90126.82230.08
18Jacksonville Jaguars5.27275.507-0.24
19Los Angeles Rams6.06206.3517-0.29
20Baltimore Ravens5.07285.456-0.38
21Green Bay Packers6.11186.6120-0.50
22Miami Dolphins5.92236.5718-0.65
23Cincinnati Bengals7.09117.7526-0.66
24Houston Texans4.60305.6310-1.03
25Detroit Lions7.3378.4130-1.08
26Oakland Raiders7.2198.5231-1.30
27Indianapolis Colts6.21177.9127-1.70
28San Francisco 49ers4.52316.6019-2.08
29Carolina Panthers5.63257.7225-2.09
30Cleveland Browns5.75247.9428-2.19
31Tampa Bay Buccaneers4.82298.1329-3.30
32New York Jets4.16328.6832-4.52

Finally, let’s look at ANY/A differential (X-Axis) as a function of winning percentage (Y-Axis):

win-anya-diff-wk6

Perhaps the most shocking part of this graph: the 49ers and Panthers have nearly identical ANY/A differentials and winning percentages. Last year, Carolina ranked 2nd in ANY/A differential (behind Cincinnati), and the 49ers ranked 2nd to last (behind the Browns)>

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