Will Alvin Kamara Average At Least 4.53 YPC in 2018?

by Chase Stuart on May 11, 2018

As a rookie, New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara averaged a whopping 6.07 yards per carry, leading the league in that metric by just about any measure. But given the large amount of regression to the mean involved in yards per carry, what would be a reasonable projection for Kamara in 2018?

I looked at the top 50 players in yards per carry from 1960 to 2016, among players who had (1) between 75 and 175 carries and (2) had fewer than 15 pass attempts. There were 13 players who averaged more than Kamara’s 6.07 YPC average (based on 120 carries for 728 yards), and the group as a whole averaged 110 carries for 641 yards, a 5.85 YPC average. So this group was slightly less effective than Kamara. The next year? They averaged 115.3 carries for just 503.8 yards, a 4.37 yards per carry average. That’s a drop of 25%; if Kamara had a similar drop, he would be at 4.53 YPC next season.

The table below shows those 50 players plus Kamara, and how they fared the next season:

Player	Year	Team	Age	Rush Att	Rush Yd	YPC	N+1 Rsh	N+1 Rsh Yd	N+1 YPC
Alvin Kamara	2017	nor	22	120	728	6.07
Lenny Moore	1961	clt	28	92	648	7.04	106	470	4.43
Darren Sproles	2011	nor	28	87	603	6.93	48	244	5.08
Bo Jackson	1987	rai	25	81	554	6.84	136	580	4.26
Keith Lincoln	1963	sdg	24	128	826	6.45	155	632	4.08
Mercury Morris	1973	mia	26	149	954	6.40	56	214	3.82
Jerious Norwood	2006	atl	23	99	633	6.39	103	613	5.95
Paul Lowe	1960	sdg	24	136	855	6.29	175	767	4.38
Michael Turner	2006	sdg	24	80	502	6.28	71	316	4.45
Dick Bass	1961	ram	24	98	608	6.20	196	1033	5.27
Gale Sayers	1968	chi	25	138	856	6.20	236	1032	4.37
Essex Johnson	1971	cin	25	85	522	6.14	212	825	3.89
Ronnie Harmon	1991	sdg	27	89	544	6.11	55	235	4.27
Kevin Faulk	2008	nwe	32	83	507	6.11	62	335	5.40
Richard Huntley	1999	pit	27	93	567	6.10	46	215	4.67
Ernie Green	1963	cle	25	87	526	6.05	109	491	4.50
Hokie Gajan	1984	nor	25	102	615	6.03	50	251	5.02
Ted McKnight	1978	kan	24	104	627	6.03	153	755	4.93
Jerious Norwood	2007	atl	24	103	613	5.95	95	489	5.15
Ty Montgomery	2016	gnb	23	77	457	5.94	71	273	3.85
Jalen Richard	2016	rai	23	83	491	5.92	56	275	4.91
Felix Jones	2009	dal	22	116	685	5.91	185	800	4.32
Leon Washington	2008	nyj	26	76	448	5.89	72	331	4.60
Napoleon Kaufman	1996	rai	23	150	874	5.83	272	1294	4.76
Mike Gillislee	2016	buf	26	101	577	5.71	104	383	3.68
Priest Holmes	1999	rav	26	89	506	5.69	137	588	4.29
Herman Heard	1987	kan	26	82	466	5.68	106	438	4.13
Maurice Jones-Drew	2006	jax	21	166	941	5.67	167	768	4.60
Trung Canidate	2001	ram	24	78	441	5.65	17	48	2.82
Thomas Rawls	2015	sea	22	147	830	5.65	109	349	3.20
Danny Woodhead	2010	2TM	25	97	547	5.64	77	351	4.56
Wray Carlton	1962	buf	25	94	530	5.64	29	125	4.31
Bob Thomas	1972	ram	24	77	433	5.62	22	48	2.18
Abner Haynes	1960	kan	23	156	875	5.61	179	841	4.70
Brandon Jacobs	2010	nyg	28	147	823	5.60	152	571	3.76
Don Calhoun	1976	nwe	24	129	721	5.59	198	727	3.67
Bo Jackson	1990	rai	28	125	698	5.58
Eddie Lee Ivery	1984	gnb	27	99	552	5.58	132	636	4.82
Amos Marsh	1962	dal	23	144	802	5.57	99	483	4.88
Karlos Williams	2015	buf	22	93	517	5.56
Brad Hubbert	1967	sdg	26	116	643	5.54	28	119	4.25
James Starks	2013	gnb	27	89	493	5.54	85	333	3.92
Aaron Jones	2017	gnb	23	81	448	5.53
Andre Ellington	2013	crd	24	118	652	5.53	201	660	3.28
Bilal Powell	2016	nyj	28	131	722	5.51	178	772	4.34
Fred Jackson	2011	buf	30	170	934	5.49	115	437	3.8
Bo Jackson	1989	rai	27	173	950	5.49	125	698	5.58
Gerry Ellis	1985	gnb	28	104	571	5.49	84	345	4.11
Mack Lee Hill	1964	kan	24	105	576	5.49	125	627	5.02
Dorsey Levens	2002	phi	32	75	411	5.48	68	197	2.90
DeMarco Murray	2011	dal	23	164	897	5.47	161	663	4.12
Average				109.7	641.4	5.85	115.3	503.8	4.37

What if we look at just the players who averaged more yards per carry than Kamara? As a group, they averaged 102.7 carries for 655.6 yards, a 6.38 yards per carry average. The next year, they averaged 118.4 carries for 536.5 yards, a 4.53 YPC average, a drop of 29%.

Tagged as: Alvin Kamara, Saints

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