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When Is A Running Back’s Career Half Over?

Le’Veon Bell turned 26 years old in February, which means — if he winds up playing much in 2018 — he might be halfway done with his career by the end of this season.

Does that feel like an exaggeration to you?  I looked at all players who had at least one season with 750+ rushing yards, had at least 5,500 career rushing yards, and were retired. And about half of those players had rushed for at least half of their career rushing yards by the end of their age 26 season. That season was by far the most common mid-point, with 34 out 94 players hitting their 50% career mark during their age 26 season. This includes Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jerome Bettis, Eric Dickerson, and Marshall Faulk; it’s also where Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch would be had they retired after 2017.

The graph below shows how many of these 94 RBs hit 50% of their career rushing total during their age 23 season, age 24 season, and so on.

On the far end of the spectrum, John Henry Johnson finally hit the halfway mark on his career at the age of 32; his four best seasons came during his age 32, 33, 34, and 35 seasons. John Riggins and Fred Jackson both hit the 50% mark during their age 30 seasons, while Priest Holmes, James Brooks, Antowain Smith, and Floyd Little did it during their age 29 seasons.

Peaking early? Clinton Portis, Rodney Hampton, Ray Rice, and Larry Brown all had at least 50% of their career rushing yards by the end of their age 24 season. Rice had 49% of his career rushing yards after the end of his age 23 season, and then a whopping 71% after his age 24 season. Of course, he barely played against after his age 25 season, following the high profile nature of his domestic assault case.

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