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In week 1, the Chargers lost to the Chiefs despite a Game Script of +10.3. San Diego led 21-3 at halftime and 24-3 in the third quarter, but the Chiefs ultimately won in overtime.

It’s pretty unusal to lose with a +10 Game Script, or stated another way, it’s pretty unusual to win with a -10 Game Script. But that’s exactly what San Diego did in week seven, beating Atlanta with a Game Script of -10.2. The Chargers trailed 27-10 in the first half, but won in overtime, 33-30. The Chargers still had an element of balance in the game — Melvin Gordon had 22 carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns — while the Falcons were done in by the team’s last three drives ending on an interception, a missed field goal, and a turnover on downs.

Below are the week seven Game Scripts data. As is customary around these parts, I’ve lowlighted the Seahawks/Cardinals game in blue as a result of their tie (you can move your cursor over that row to see it more clearly, not that I know why you would want to).

TeamH/ROppBoxscorePFPAMarginGame ScriptPassRunP/R RatioOp_POp_ROpp_P/R Ratio
OAK@JAXBoxscore3316178.8363352.2%441475.9%
CINCLEBoxscore3117148.3313050.8%362658.1%
PHIMINBoxscore2110117.6282651.9%472763.5%
KANNORBoxscore272167.5242846.2%482268.6%
NWE@PITBoxscore2716115.8252946.3%462168.7%
DENHOUBoxscore279184.9253541.7%422562.7%
IND@TENBoxscore342683412463.1%382758.5%
DETWASBoxscore201732.5321962.7%412958.6%
TAM@SFOBoxscore3417172.2324143.8%382857.6%
GNBCHIBoxscore2610161.3582371.6%271860%
SEA@ARIBoxscore660-1.4371966.1%533758.9%
NYG@RAMBoxscore17107-1.8372064.9%562073.7%
MIABUFBoxscore28253-2.4264238.2%322259.3%
NYJBALBoxscore24168-6273841.5%451278.9%
SDG@ATLBoxscore33303-10.2492665.3%372658.7%

The Dolphins and Jets were extremely run-heavy this week. Miami, behind Jay Ajayi, won with a Game Script of -2.4 and finished with 42 runs against just 26 pass plays. That’s a crazy run-heavy ratio in a win, much less in a win where the team is trailing at halftime and at the end of the third quarter. The Jets fell behind early against Baltimore, but Matt Forte still wound up with 30 carries for 100 yards. With Geno Smith leaving early and Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing him, the Jets chose to put the game in the hands of Forte rather than Fitzpatrick (or Bilal Powell, who was the emergency quarterback if Fitzpatrick went down).

The Ravens, Rams, and Packers all came off as very pass-heavy this week. We have grown accustomed to the Joe Flacco 2016 Ravens being really pass-heavy, and it’s hard to stick to the running game when a team finishes with 12 carries for 6 yards. And it’s no surprise that Green Bay put the game in the hands of Aaron Rodgers given the team’s injuries at running back: Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb led the Packers in carries in a win on Thursday night against Chicago, and finished with the highest pass ratio for any winning team this week.

But Los Angeles? That was the big surprise this week: Case Keenum had 56 dropbacks compared to only 15 runs for Todd Gurley.  That is crazy in any game, but particularly in one in which the Rams led in the fourth quarter.  But Gurley isn’t helping his own cause too much, either: he had a long run of just eight yards.

  • Am I the only one who thought ARI-SEA was actually a good game? Both defenses deserved to win. Both offenses deserved to lose. That sort of happened.

    • Richie

      No, I’m with you.

      Most people seem to automatically think that a low-scoring tie = bad game.

      I thought it was a good defensive game with some missed field goals at the end to make for a crazy finish.

    • Wolverine

      I agree. I thoroughly enjoyed that game. Not only because both defenses were playing out of their minds, but also because I enjoy big special teams plays (blocks or returns). The missed field goals, however, were sloppy.

    • Adam

      Easily my favorite game of the year. I love the tension of a defensive slugfest, knowing that the next score could very well win the game. And Seattle’s defense was incredible – to be on the field for 90 plays without allowing a TD is just unreal.

      I’m also one of the rare Americans who likes ties. I wish they’d abolish OT for regular season games altogether, as a tie is the fairest outcome for two teams who played equally well.

    • While I would not join you on that, you are not the only one. I felt like the Cardinals offense was really what made the game difficult–they look all kinds of out of sorts, often unforced by Seattle. And Wilson being hobbled just makes the Seahawks offense seem sad. But then I also really enjoyed the 51-48 Denver-Dallas game in 2013 that many complained was a sign of all that was wrong with modern football. And my favorite game I remember from childhood was a game from 1994 that featured 45 running plays vs. 89 passes (and my team losing). I’m an outlier in the more hardcore fan communities.

      And I’m with Adam above about ties–just call it a tie at 60 minutes. I find the need for a winner for each individual game a bit bizarre.

      • Richie

        Ironically, more game ties would probably lead to fewer ties for playoff seedings.

        • I hadn’t even thought about that, but that would be a good result, too. The playoff tiebreaker rules are really not fun to dig through every year, so if we could actually have different records that would be an improvement.