Courtesy of Bryan Frye, let’s look at some graphs of the four quarterbacks in the conference championship games. The stat we will be using today is Total Adjusted Yards per Play, which is like ANY/A on steroids.

First, let’s start with Cam Newton. His Total Adjusted Yards per Play is in blue; the average TAY/P allowed by his opponent each week is in black. As you can see, in 6 of 17 games, he was below-expectation, but he’s been above-expectation in five of his last six games. (Note that for each quarterback, the bye week is included, and the division round matchup is plotted below as Week 18.)

That’s pretty good, but it’s not nearly as impressive as what Carson Palmer has done. He has been below expectation just once all year: in the team’s week 17 loss to Seattle.

On the other side of things, there is Peyton Manning. He doesn’t fare as poorly here as you might think, although he was still below-expectation in 7 of 11 games. But Manning generally fares better in TAY/P than he does in ANY/A, and he does better in a weekly analysis than in a season-long analysis, because his disastrous performance against Kansas City only counts as once game. See if you can figure out which week that came in!

Finally, Tom Brady. While he may not have the season-long stats of someone like Palmer, Brady has impressively been below-expectation just three times all season: against the Giants (mostly because of opponent adjustments), the Eagles, and the Dolphins.

Finally, here is all that information in table form. Here’s how to read it: In week 1, against Jacksonville, Newton had 45 Action Plays. The Jaguars allowed 9.77 TAY/P to other passes, while Newton averaged 6.18 TAY/P in this game, meaning he was -3.59 TAY/P relative to expectation.

What do you think? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and I’m sure Bryan will be happy to answer any questions you have.