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Courtesy of Bryan Frye, let’s look at some graphs of the four quarterbacks in the conference championship games. The stat we will be using today is Total Adjusted Yards per Play, which is like ANY/A on steroids.

First, let’s start with Cam Newton. His Total Adjusted Yards per Play is in blue; the average TAY/P allowed by his opponent each week is in black. As you can see, in 6 of 17 games, he was below-expectation, but he’s been above-expectation in five of his last six games. (Note that for each quarterback, the bye week is included, and the division round matchup is plotted below as Week 18.)

Cam tayp

That’s pretty good, but it’s not nearly as impressive as what Carson Palmer has done. He has been below expectation just once all year: in the team’s week 17 loss to Seattle.

carson tayp

On the other side of things, there is Peyton Manning. He doesn’t fare as poorly here as you might think, although he was still below-expectation in 7 of 11 games. But Manning generally fares better in TAY/P than he does in ANY/A, and he does better in a weekly analysis than in a season-long analysis, because his disastrous performance against Kansas City only counts as once game. See if you can figure out which week that came in!

peyton tayp

Finally, Tom Brady. While he may not have the season-long stats of someone like Palmer, Brady has impressively been below-expectation just three times all season: against the Giants (mostly because of opponent adjustments), the Eagles, and the Dolphins.

brady tayp

Finally, here is all that information in table form. Here’s how to read it: In week 1, against Jacksonville, Newton had 45 Action Plays. The Jaguars allowed 9.77 TAY/P to other passes, while Newton averaged 6.18 TAY/P in this game, meaning he was -3.59 TAY/P relative to expectation.

WkPlayerTmOppAction PlaysSOSTAY/POvr Exp
1Cam NewtonCARJAX459.776.18-3.59
2Cam NewtonCARHOU487.508.631.12
3Cam NewtonCARNOR3910.8414.083.24
4Cam NewtonCARTB339.447.91-1.53
5Cam NewtonCAR0.000.000.00
6Cam NewtonCARSEA447.517.860.36
7Cam NewtonCARPHI288.918.00-0.91
8Cam NewtonCARIND478.947.23-1.71
9Cam NewtonCARGNB397.8012.284.48
10Cam NewtonCARTEN379.3610.621.27
11Cam NewtonCARWAS408.8311.702.87
12Cam NewtonCARDAL399.257.82-1.43
13Cam NewtonCARNOR5011.0111.440.43
14Cam NewtonCARATL268.7314.695.97
15Cam NewtonCARNYG559.5812.072.49
16Cam NewtonCARATL399.156.49-2.66
17Cam NewtonCARTB369.1512.583.43
DCam NewtonCARSEA317.439.612.18
1Carson PalmerARINOR3410.8614.153.29
2Carson PalmerARICHI249.5312.172.63
3Carson PalmerARISF339.8811.972.09
4Carson PalmerARISTL498.168.730.58
5Carson PalmerARIDET169.2414.695.45
6Carson PalmerARIPIT468.0110.262.25
7Carson PalmerARIBAL328.9512.974.02
8Carson PalmerARICLE399.8513.874.02
9Carson PalmerARI0.000.000.00
10Carson PalmerARISEA507.419.041.63
11Carson PalmerARICIN327.0211.414.39
12Carson PalmerARISF429.9910.020.03
13Carson PalmerARISTL417.9012.854.95
14Carson PalmerARIMIN397.9312.184.25
15Carson PalmerARIPHI348.7112.033.32
16Carson PalmerARIGNB297.8712.074.20
17Carson PalmerARISEA257.566.68-0.88
DCarson PalmerARIGNB447.978.860.89
1Peyton ManningDENBAL449.514.64-4.87
2Peyton ManningDENKC486.917.520.61
3Peyton ManningDENDET439.369.670.31
4Peyton ManningDENMIN298.217.59-0.63
5Peyton ManningDENOAK378.517.11-1.40
6Peyton ManningDENCLE4710.466.40-4.06
7Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
8Peyton ManningDENGNB297.7614.837.07
9Peyton ManningDENIND378.828.73-0.09
10Peyton ManningDENKC227.38-7.73-15.11
11Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
12Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
13Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
14Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
15Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
16Peyton ManningDEN0.000.000.00
17Peyton ManningDENSD109.0610.501.44
DPeyton ManningDENPIT398.177.64-0.53
1Tom BradyNEPIT367.8414.616.78
2Tom BradyNEBUF618.2010.332.12
3Tom BradyNEJAX469.3412.202.86
4Tom BradyNE0.000.000.00
5Tom BradyNEDAL349.0510.761.71
6Tom BradyNEIND418.7010.611.91
7Tom BradyNENYJ617.108.701.61
8Tom BradyNEMIA419.0213.174.15
9Tom BradyNEWAS398.9110.541.63
10Tom BradyNENYG459.839.11-0.72
11Tom BradyNEBUF408.398.630.24
12Tom BradyNEDEN456.749.162.42
13Tom BradyNEPHI649.067.02-2.04
14Tom BradyNEHOU347.4510.002.55
15Tom BradyNETEN379.3710.350.98
16Tom BradyNENYJ337.149.212.07
17Tom BradyNEMIA239.465.30-4.16
DTom BradyNEKC446.6711.554.87

What do you think? Leave your thoughts in the comments, and I’m sure Bryan will be happy to answer any questions you have.

  • One thing that I found interesting is that Manning has (by far) the worst game relative to expectation, but he also has the best rated game relative to expectation. His -7.73 TAY/P in week 10 is the worst performance of any qualifying QB (min 15 plays) all season, by a significant margin. Brian Hoyer had -0.76 in the playoff loss to KC, and Colin Kaepernick had -0.57 against the Cardinals. No other QB had a negative TAY/P all year.

    Also interesting is that the two worst performances (by this metric) came against the Chiefs.

  • Any chance of getting a graph of just the delta week by week?

  • Trepur

    This definitely supports my claim that Palmer should be the MVP winner.

    I really hope the voters look past each teams WL when making their decision this year. PALMER FOR MVP!

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