Tyreek Hill Was A Star On A Per Snap Basis Last Year

by Chase Stuart on June 9, 2017

Tyreek Hill was noticeably absent from yesterday’s list of yards from scrimmage leaders. The main reason for that? Hill was a part-time player for the first seven weeks, failing to take the field on even half of Kansas City’s offensive snaps in even a single game. By the end of the year, he was a more regular part of the offense, although he never participated in 70% or more of the Chiefs offensive plays in any regular season game (and in the playoff loss to Pittsburgh, he was present for 69% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps). The graph below shows the percentage of offensive snaps he was on the field each week of the 2016 regular season:

Obviously Hill couldn’t do much damage early in the year, but as his playing time increased, so did his production. Below is the same graph, but also includes (in black and plotted against the Right Y-Axis) his yards from scrimmage in each game:

Over the course of his rookie season, Hill’s average participation rate was just 41.3%. That’s akin to him taking every snap for the first 6.61 games of the year (i.e., 0.413 * 16) and then never playing again. Hill gained 860 yards from scrimmage last season, which was impressive but ranked outside of the top 60 last year. On a per-game basis, Hill averaged 53.75 YFS/G, but there were 90 other players who averaged at least 53 YFS/G last season.

But if Hill gained his 860 yards in 6.61 games — a 130.1 YFS/AdjG average — all the sudden he looks like a superstar. Of course, if you treat Hill — who had an average participation rate of 41.3% across 16 games — as having played in only 6.61 games, you need to do that for everyone. The funny thing is, Hill still stands out as extraordinary in that regard. A.J. Green had 964 YFS last year in 10 games; if you apply the same formula to Green, he would get credit for 8.81 adjusted games (Green, of course, was on the field for nearly every snap when healthy). That’s worth only 109.4 YFS/AdjG. Julio Jones had 1,409 YFS in 14 games, but he also played in some partial games. He would get credit for 10.85 Adjusted Games using this formula, or 129.8 YFS/AdjG.

Which is awesome…. but still not as good as what Hill did! I re-ran the numbers from yesterday’s post — where I calculated each player’s share of the team’s total yards from scrimmage — but used adjusted games instead of actual games to pro-rate those numbers. Hill suddenly jumps to the top, being responsible for a pro-rated 36.8% of the Chiefs offense whenever he was ont he field. Green and Jones are the only other WRs over 30%. Well, that’s not exactly true. One WR-turned-RB also makes the list. It’s probably not fair to compare Ty Montgomery to other receivers, but I decided to leave him in just as a point of reference. The table below shows the top 75 wide receivers from 2016 using the above-described formula:

Rk	Player	Pos	Team	YFS	Team YFS	Perc	G	Adj G	Pro Rt
1	Tyreek Hill	WR	KAN	860	5662	15.2%	16	6.61	36.8%
2	Ty Montgomery	WR	GNB	805	6146	13.1%	15	5.77	36.3%
3	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	964	5975	16.1%	10	8.11	31.8%
4	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	1409	6888	20.5%	14	10.85	30.2%
5	Kenny Britt	WR	LAR	1002	4565	21.9%	15	12.5	28.1%
6	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	1448	6119	23.7%	16	13.8	27.4%
7	Mike Evans	WR	TAM	1321	5781	22.9%	16	13.35	27.4%
8	Taylor Gabriel	WR	ATL	630	6888	9.1%	13	5.44	26.9%
9	Odell Beckham	WR	NYG	1376	5439	25.3%	16	15.1	26.8%
10	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	913	5324	17.1%	13	10.53	26.1%
11	JJ Nelson	WR	ARI	651	6157	10.6%	15	6.5	26%
12	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	982	5324	18.4%	16	11.87	24.9%
13	Demaryius Thomas	WR	DEN	1083	5398	20.1%	16	13.19	24.3%
14	Cole Beasley	WR	DAL	840	6195	13.6%	16	9.04	24%
15	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	1036	5398	19.2%	16	12.94	23.7%
16	Ted Ginn	WR	CAR	850	5776	14.7%	16	9.94	23.7%
17	Antonio Brown	WR	PIT	1293	6137	21.1%	15	14.43	23.4%
18	Mike Wallace	WR	BAL	1048	5806	18.1%	16	12.37	23.3%
19	Julian Edelman	WR	NWE	1163	6328	18.4%	16	12.6	23.3%
20	Golden Tate	WR	DET	1081	5637	19.2%	16	13.35	23%
21	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	CAR	941	5776	16.3%	16	11.57	22.5%
22	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	711	6013	11.8%	15	8.45	22.4%
23	Brandin Cooks	WR	NOR	1203	7000	17.2%	16	12.29	22.4%
24	DeSean Jackson	WR	WAS	1005	6644	15.1%	15	10.85	22.3%
25	Cameron Meredith	WR	CHI	894	5874	15.2%	14	10.93	22.3%
26	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA	1130	6013	18.8%	16	13.53	22.2%
27	Jarvis Landry	WR	MIA	1153	5540	20.8%	16	15.02	22.2%
28	Michael Crabtree	WR	OAK	1003	6059	16.6%	16	11.98	22.1%
29	Jordy Nelson	WR	GNB	1257	6146	20.5%	16	14.91	21.9%
30	Michael Thomas	WR	NOR	1137	7000	16.2%	15	11.88	21.9%
31	Terrelle Pryor	WR	CLE	1028	5405	19%	16	13.97	21.8%
32	Rishard Matthews	WR	TEN	945	5907	16%	16	11.77	21.7%
33	Marqise Lee	WR	JAX	886	5556	15.9%	16	11.77	21.7%
34	Steve Smith	WR	BAL	799	5806	13.8%	14	10.16	21.7%
35	Travis Benjamin	WR	SDG	674	5896	11.4%	14	8.48	21.6%
36	Amari Cooper	WR	OAK	1153	6059	19%	16	14.21	21.4%
37	Tyrell Williams	WR	SDG	1059	5896	18%	16	13.43	21.4%
38	Pierre Garcon	WR	WAS	1041	6644	15.7%	16	12.19	20.6%
39	Tavon Austin	WR	LAR	668	4565	14.6%	15	11.53	20.3%
40	Breshad Perriman	WR	BAL	501	5806	8.6%	16	6.82	20.2%
41	Dez Bryant	WR	DAL	796	6195	12.8%	13	10.21	20.1%
42	Alshon Jeffery	WR	CHI	821	5874	14%	12	11.11	20.1%
43	Willie Snead	WR	NOR	895	7000	12.8%	15	10.41	19.7%
44	Adam Humphries	WR	TAM	640	5781	11.1%	15	9.02	19.6%
45	Sammy Watkins	WR	BUF	430	5880	7.3%	8	6.02	19.4%
46	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	933	5637	16.6%	15	13.64	19.4%
47	Davante Adams	WR	GNB	997	6146	16.2%	16	13.42	19.3%
48	Eli Rogers	WR	PIT	600	6137	9.8%	13	8.11	19.3%
49	Jordan Matthews	WR	PHI	804	5611	14.3%	14	11.96	19.2%
50	Quincy Enunwa	WR	NYJ	869	5447	16%	16	13.44	19%
51	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	MIN	496	5324	9.3%	16	7.92	18.8%
52	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	HOU	954	5277	18.1%	16	15.49	18.7%
53	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	ARI	1028	6157	16.7%	16	14.62	18.3%
54	Robert Woods	WR	BUF	619	5880	10.5%	13	9.34	18%
55	Brian Quick	WR	LAR	564	4565	12.4%	16	11.06	17.9%
56	DeVante Parker	WR	MIA	744	5540	13.4%	15	12.32	17.4%
57	Jamison Crowder	WR	WAS	845	6644	12.7%	16	11.87	17.1%
58	Randall Cobb	WR	GNB	643	6146	10.5%	13	9.91	16.9%
59	Allen Robinson	WR	JAX	883	5556	15.9%	16	15.06	16.9%
60	Brandon Marshall	WR	NYJ	788	5447	14.5%	15	13.74	16.8%
61	Jeremy Kerley	WR	SFO	667	5185	12.9%	16	12.28	16.8%
62	Robby Anderson	WR	NYJ	629	5447	11.5%	16	11.25	16.4%
63	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	661	5975	11.1%	16	10.84	16.3%
64	John Brown	WR	ARI	527	6157	8.6%	15	8.42	16.3%
65	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	632	5277	12%	14	11.8	16.2%
66	Kenny Stills	WR	MIA	726	5540	13.1%	16	13.37	15.7%
67	Jeremy Maclin	WR	KAN	535	5662	9.4%	12	9.65	15.7%
68	Brandon LaFell	WR	CIN	860	5975	14.4%	16	14.88	15.5%
69	Paul Richardson	WR	SEA	293	6013	4.9%	15	5.07	15.4%
70	Dontrelle Inman	WR	SDG	810	5896	13.7%	16	14.37	15.3%
71	Russell Shepard	WR	TAM	350	5781	6.1%	14	6.48	14.9%
72	Allen Hurns	WR	JAX	477	5556	8.6%	11	9.19	14.9%
73	Victor Cruz	WR	NYG	586	5439	10.8%	15	11.67	14.8%
74	Devin Funchess	WR	CAR	371	5776	6.4%	15	7.05	14.6%
75	Chris Hogan	WR	NWE	689	6328	10.9%	15	11.97	14.6%

I’m not quite sure what to think of this, other than it does do a good job of reflecting something I know was true: when he was on the field last year, Hill was really something. A lot more something than his 860 yards from scrimmage would indicate.

Tagged as: Tyreek Hill

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