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Todd Gurley and Rushing TDs on Bad Offenses

Here’s a good article by Matt Harmon presenting the contrarian case against Todd Gurley as a fantasy player. One of Matt’s arguments against Gurley’s fantasy value is that he’s on a bad offense, and his numbers last year were only strong because he scored such a high percentage of St. Louis offensive touchdowns.

That math checks out: Gurley ran for 10 TDs (with no receiving touchdowns), while the Rams scored 27 total offensive touchdowns. That means that Gurley rushing touchdowns made up 37% of all Rams offensive touchdowns, which was the highest rate in the NFL last year, and the highest rate in the NFL in three years. The only other players in shouting range of that number were Adrian Peterson (11/32, or 34% of all Vikings offensive touchdowns) and Devonta Freeman (11/34, of 32% of Falcons touchdowns). [1]Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.

Another rookie from the SEC holds the modern record in this category. In 1981, South Carolina’s George Rogers was drafted by the Saints, and he led the NFL in rushing yards as a rookie. He also rushed for 13 touchdowns, despite the Saints finishing last in the league in scoring. Rogers rushed for 13 of the team’s 24 offensive touchdowns, or 54%. The table below shows the top 100 seasons by this metric since 1960:

RkPlayerTmYearRush TDTm Off TDPerc
1George RogersNOR1981132454.2%
2Terry AllenWAS1996213953.8%
3Emmitt SmithDAL1995254753.2%
4LaDainian TomlinsonSDG2006285650%
4Shaun AlexanderSEA2005275450%
4O.J. SimpsonBUF1973122450%
7Larry JohnsonKAN2006173548.6%
8Walter PaytonCHI1977142948.3%
9Priest HolmesKAN2003275648.2%
10Shaun AlexanderSEA2001143046.7%
10Curtis MartinNWE1995143046.7%
10Emmitt SmithDAL1994214546.7%
13Larry JohnsonKAN2005204346.5%
14Earl CampbellHOU1979194146.3%
15Emmitt SmithDAL1996122646.2%
16Errict RhettTAM1995112445.8%
17Barry SandersDET1991163545.7%
18Joe MorrisNYG1985214645.7%
19Lamar SmithMIA2000143145.2%
20Walter PaytonCHI1976132944.8%
21Shaun AlexanderSEA2002163644.4%
22Maurice Jones-DrewJAX2009153444.1%
22Karim Abdul-JabbarMIA1997153444.1%
24Emmitt SmithDAL1990112544%
25Eddie GeorgeTEN2000143243.8%
25Travis PrenticeCLE200071643.8%
25Eric DickersonRAM1984143243.8%
28Michael TurnerATL2008173943.6%
29Corey DillonCIN2001102343.5%
30Tiki BarberNYG2004133043.3%
30Gerald RiggsATL1984133043.3%
32Thomas JonesNYJ2009143342.4%
32Derrick FennerSEA1990143342.4%
32Walter PaytonCHI1979143342.4%
35Peyton HillisCLE2010112642.3%
35Walter PaytonCHI1978112642.3%
37Emmitt SmithDAL1992184341.9%
37Eric DickersonRAM1983184341.9%
39Travis HenryBUF2003102441.7%
40Jamal LewisBAL2003143441.2%
40Rodney HamptonNYG1992143441.2%
40Barry SandersDET1989143441.2%
40Ottis AndersonNYG1989143441.2%
44Thomas JonesCHI200592240.9%
45Terdell MiddletonGNB1978112740.7%
45Tom SullivanPHI1974112740.7%
47John RigginsWAS1983245940.7%
48Domanick WilliamsHOU2004133240.6%
49LenDale WhiteTEN2008153740.5%
50LeSean McCoyPHI2011174240.5%
50Jim BrownCLE1965174240.5%
52Marshawn LynchSEA2011123040%
52Adrian PetersonMIN2010123040%
52Chris JohnsonTEN2009143540%
52DeAngelo WilliamsCAR2008184540%
52Shaun AlexanderSEA2004164040%
52Robb RiddickBUF1988123040%
52George RogersWAS1986184540%
59Priest HolmesKAN2002215339.6%
60Earl CampbellHOU1980133339.4%
61Trent RichardsonCLE2012112839.3%
61Barry FosterPIT1992112839.3%
63LaDainian TomlinsonSDG2002143638.9%
63Robert HolmesSDG197371838.9%
63Jim NanceBOS197071838.9%
66Emmitt SmithDAL1991123138.7%
66Eric DickersonRAM1985123138.7%
68Chris WarrenSEA1995153938.5%
69Billy SimsDET1980133438.2%
70Maurice Jones-DrewJAX201182138.1%
70Ricky WilliamsMIA2002164238.1%
70Greg PruittCLE197582138.1%
73Jim TaylorGNB1962195038%
74Brad BaxterNYJ1991112937.9%
74Marcus AllenRAI1982112937.9%
76Maurice Jones-DrewJAX2008123237.5%
76Mario BatesARI199992437.5%
76Robert DelpinoRAM199192437.5%
76Christian OkoyeKAN1989123237.5%
76Earl CampbellHOU1983123237.5%
76Wendell TylerRAM198292437.5%
76Eddie Lee IveryGNB198292437.5%
76Wendell TylerRAM1981123237.5%
76Jim KiickMIA196992437.5%
85Ricky WattersPHI1996133537.1%
85Earl CampbellHOU1978133537.1%
85Chuck ForemanMIN1976133537.1%
85Jim BrownCLE1962133537.1%
85Cookie GilchristBUF1962133537.1%
90Todd GurleySTL2015102737%
90Gerald RiggsATL1985102737%
92Steven JacksonSTL200871936.8%
92Thomas JonesCHI200471936.8%
92Corey DillonCIN200071936.8%
92Eric DickersonIND1988143836.8%
92Pete JohnsonCIN1983143836.8%
92Andra FranklinMIA198271936.8%
92John David CrowSTL1962143836.8%
99LaDainian TomlinsonSDG2005184936.7%
100Ricky WattersPHI1995113036.7%
100Marshall FaulkIND1994113036.7%
100Bill BrownMIN1968113036.7%

A quick note: from a historical perspective, note that Emmitt Smith has *six* seasons in the top 66; no other player has more than four seasons in the top 100. Shaun Alexander, Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, and Walter Payton. That’s pretty interesting, and I’ll let you guys offer up your own historical thoughts in the comments.

As for Gurley? Simple math tells us that he can only score a lot of touchdowns if he continues to get an enormous share of the Rams pie or if the Rams pies increases. There are likely regression-to-the-mean aspects of both: yes, Gurley probably won’t continue to account for close to 40% of his team’s offensive touchdowns, but Los Angeles should improve, too. After all, the Rams offense scored only 27 touchdowns last year, 4th-fewest in the NFL (the 49ers had 23, the Cowboys had 24, and the Browns had 25). Ten rushing touchdowns is hardly an enormous number that requires you to build in a projected decrease.

Perhaps the bigger concern would be the boom-or-bust style of Gurley’s rookie year: he was consistently failing to pick up 4, 5, and 6 yard chunks relative to the average back. Along those same lines, Gurley ranked 9th in DVOA but just 36th in success rate. When it comes to young backs, usage rate is perhaps the most important thing to focus on, though that is not exactly infallible, either. I guess my takeaway with Gurley is that while his upside still seems incredibly high after his rookie season, his inconsistency and the bad offense he plays on still leaves a bit more downside than you might otherwise think. In other words, Gurley’s a pretty high variance running back in 2016 for a player who is projected to lead the NFL in rushing attempts.

References

References
1 Note that if we included receiving touchdowns, Freeman would vault Gurley, as he accounted for 41% of all Atlanta offensive touchdowns.
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