There is no more polarizing quarterback prospect in this year’s draft than Wyoming’s Josh Allen. The buzz is getting louder that the Browns will select Allen with the first overall pick; the more analytically inclined observers think that would be a disaster. In some minds, Allen doesn’t even project as a first round pick.

Allen has a significant amount of bust potential but traditional quarterback size and one of the greatest arms you’ll ever see. That has naturally led to some comparisons to two of the biggest draft busts in recent memory: Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell.

But a comparison to Leaf, Russell, and don’t make much sense. That’s because those guys were stars in college. Here is what Leaf did in his final season: he was extremely efficient despite easily leading the Pac-10 in passing attempts.  He averaged 9.7 yards per pass and lapped the Pac-10 in passing yards and touchdowns, ranking second in efficiency only to another future first round pick:

And Russell? Well, he led the SEC in Y/A and AY/A and also completion percentage in his final season.  He had fantastic rate stats and gross stats playing in the toughest conference in football, on top of being an incredible physical specimen.

But Allen?  He wasn’t good, even in the Mountain West Conference.  And he didn’t even throw very often.  Allen ranked 7th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt in the Mountain West last year, and ranked 10th11th out of 12 teams in yards per play in yards per attempt among 11  qualifying passers.  He also quarterbacked the single worst offense in the conference! Wyoming ranked dead last in total yards.  Allen wasn’t playing for a good offense, or a pass-heavy offense: he was leading a very bad offense in a mediocre conference and he produced mediocre (at best) passing numbers:

So no, comparisons to Leaf and Russell don’t make much sense.  Those quarterbacks were top picks because they were dominant in college and had off the chart measurables.  Allen was below-average in college and has off the chart measurables. Wyoming had a great defense, averaging 2.9 takeaways per game, by far the most in the conference. And the Cowboys led the conference in points allowed, which is why they finished 8-5 despite the poor offense.

So who is a good comparable for Allen? Jay Cutler played on a bad team in college but he was the whole offense: he easily led the SEC in pass attempts and also passing yards, while posting decent enough rate numbers against top defenses. Cutler ranked 7th in AY/A and 8th in Y/A, but he had the advantage of being in a much tougher conference and also shouldering a significantly larger load.

Someone like Jeff George might be a better comparison from an efficiency standpoint and matches on the tool set, but George easily led the Big 10 in passing yards and passing TDs in 1989:

Someone like Matt Stafford had an incredible arm, but he was a much better college QB, too:

It’s not remarkable that someone with incredible physical tools — size, arm strength, and also raw athleticism — like Allen could be a number one pick.  But what is unusual is that someone with that skill set was so thoroughly underwhelming in college despite (1) facing a lower level of competition, (2) having a great defense and (3) not being asked to throw a ton.

Jake Locker might be the best comparison (although Allen is bigger with a stronger arm).  He had pretty underwhelming numbers in the Pac-10 in his final season:

Locker didn’t throw a lot but was still inefficient.  He does have a bit more in the way of excuses, though: Washington was pretty terrible at this time, and went 0-12 during his sophomore season (where an injury limited him to just four games).  Locker posted mediocre numbers, but the offense was a disaster without him.

Allen has drawn a lot of criticism from those who look at college stats, and with good reason.  But what’s most surprising isn’t the criticism, but that Allen is a possible number one overall pick despite those college stats and despite playing in the Mountain West.  There has been a quarterback selected first overall from the Mountain West, but his stats were night and day compared to Allen’s:

The same is true for a first overall pick from the WAC:

If you’re coming from a small school, you typically need remarkable stats and the physical tools to be a high pick.  Allen only has half the equation.  Yes, Carson Wentz went to a small school, but Wentz put up great numbers (8.4 Y/A, 8.8 AY/A, 45 TDs/14 INTs in 612 career passes) while playing for a team that won the championship every season he was there. That is not exactly the Allen story. The main thing they have in common is having played under the same coach in college.

But remember, all of this is baked into Allen’s draft profile.  He’s a potential first overall pick even though scouts know he wasn’t good in college.  I’m of the belief that the draft is an efficient market, so if Allen goes first overall, then I’d wager he’s got a very good chance to turn into a good NFL quarterback.  But I also think the chance that Allen slides significantly in the first round is a lot higher than people think, too.  Until he’s actually drafted, we don’t know how much teams are willing to overlook.