You will not be surprised to learn that the Patriots led the NFL this season with 389 first downs. That’s the 9th most since 2002, and New England has three other teams ahead of the 2017 version. The Patriots offense is always great in large part because the Patriots always pick up a ton of first downs.
The graph below shows the number of first downs for each team this season. The Jaguars, perhaps surprisingly, ranked tied for 7th with a Saints offense that was much better:
The Jaguars allowed just 257 first downs, the fewest in the NFL.
The delta in first downs between the two units is 132, which is the 9th most in a playoff game in NFL history. The biggest disparity in a playoff matchup was 167 in a game between the 2000 Broncos (who led the league with 383 first downs) and the 2000 Ravens (who allowed 216, just one more than the Titans; no other defense allowed under 250). The defensive team won that game, although it was at home.
When the offensive team is at home, and has a touchdown or more spread, the offensive teams have been pretty successful. This includes the 2012 Patriots over the Texans, 2004 Colts over the Broncos, 1984 49ers over the Bears, and 2011 Patriots over the Ravens.
| Year | Round | Off | Def | Off 1D | Def 1D | Diff | Home | Spread (Off Tm) | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | W | DEN | BAL | 383 | 216 | 167 | Def Tm | 3.5 | Defense | 21-3 |
| 2013 | S | DEN | SEA | 435 | 282 | 153 | Neut | -2.5 | Defense | 43-8 |
| 2012 | D | NWE | HOU | 444 | 292 | 152 | Off Tm | -9.5 | Off | 41-28 |
| 2011 | D | NOR | SFO | 416 | 267 | 149 | Def Tm | -3.5 | Defense | 36-32 |
| 2004 | W | IND | DEN | 379 | 235 | 144 | Off Tm | -10 | Off | 49-24 |
| 1984 | C | SFO | CHI | 356 | 216 | 140 | Off Tm | -10 | Off | 23-0 |
| 2006 | D | IND | BAL | 376 | 236 | 140 | Def Tm | 4 | Off | 15-6 |
| 1998 | W | SFO | GNB | 381 | 246 | 135 | Off Tm | -3 | Off | 30-27 |
| 2017 | C | NWE | JAX | 389 | 257 | 132 | Off Tm | -9.0 | Defense | ?? |
| 2002 | S | OAK | TAM | 366 | 236 | 130 | Neut | -9 | Defense | 48-21 |
| 2011 | C | NWE | BAL | 399 | 269 | 130 | Off Tm | -7 | Off | 23-20 |
| 1984 | D | WAS | CHI | 339 | 216 | 123 | Off Tm | -9 | Defense | 23-19 |
| 1980 | D | SDG | BUF | 372 | 251 | 121 | Off Tm | -6 | Off | 20-14 |
| 1976 | C | OAK | PIT | 303 | 182 | 121 | Off Tm | 0 | Off | 24-7 |
| 2000 | C | OAK | BAL | 337 | 216 | 121 | Off Tm | -6 | Defense | 16-3 |
| 1985 | D | NYG | CHI | 356 | 236 | 120 | Def Tm | 9 | Defense | 21-0 |
| 1976 | D | BAL | PIT | 301 | 182 | 119 | Off Tm | 0 | Defense | 40-14 |
| 2012 | C | NWE | BAL | 444 | 326 | 118 | Off Tm | -7.5 | Defense | 28-13 |
| 2006 | S | IND | CHI | 376 | 258 | 118 | Neut | -6.5 | Off | 29-17 |
| 1991 | S | BUF | WAS | 359 | 242 | 117 | Neut | 7 | Defense | 37-24 |
| 1991 | C | BUF | DEN | 359 | 242 | 117 | Off Tm | -12 | Off | 10-7 |
| 1998 | D | SFO | ATL | 381 | 267 | 114 | Def Tm | 3.5 | Defense | 20-18 |
| 1978 | C | DAL | RAM | 342 | 229 | 113 | Def Tm | -3.5 | Off | 28-0 |
| 2006 | C | IND | NWE | 376 | 264 | 112 | Off Tm | -3 | Off | 38-34 |
| 1991 | D | HOU | DEN | 353 | 242 | 111 | Def Tm | 3.5 | Defense | 26-24 |
| 1999 | D | WAS | TAM | 338 | 228 | 110 | Def Tm | 4.5 | Defense | 14-13 |
| 1968 | C | OAK | NYJ | 287 | 178 | 109 | Def Tm | 0 | Defense | 27-23 |
| 1992 | S | BUF | DAL | 350 | 241 | 109 | Neut | 6.5 | Defense | 52-17 |
| 2013 | D | DEN | SDG | 435 | 327 | 108 | Off Tm | -7.5 | Off | 24-17 |
| 1973 | D | DAL | RAM | 281 | 173 | 108 | Off Tm | 0 | Off | 27-16 |
| 2007 | D | NWE | JAX | 393 | 286 | 107 | Off Tm | -13.5 | Off | 31-20 |
| 1999 | C | STL | TAM | 335 | 228 | 107 | Off Tm | -14 | Off | 11-6 |
| 2003 | W | IND | DEN | 348 | 241 | 107 | Off Tm | -3 | Off | 41-10 |
| 2002 | D | SFO | TAM | 342 | 236 | 106 | Def Tm | 6 | Defense | 31-6 |
| 2007 | S | NWE | NYG | 393 | 288 | 105 | Neut | -12.5 | Defense | 17-14 |
| 1984 | C | MIA | PIT | 387 | 282 | 105 | Off Tm | -10 | Off | 45-28 |
| 1993 | D | SFO | NYG | 372 | 268 | 104 | Off Tm | -8 | Off | 44-3 |
| 1989 | S | SFO | DEN | 350 | 246 | 104 | Neut | -13 | Off | 55-10 |
| 1992 | C | SFO | DAL | 344 | 241 | 103 | Off Tm | -4 | Defense | 30-20 |
| 2005 | D | SEA | WAS | 361 | 258 | 103 | Off Tm | -8.5 | Off | 20-10 |
| 2009 | C | IND | NYJ | 339 | 237 | 102 | Off Tm | -8.5 | Off | 30-17 |
| 1975 | C | OAK | PIT | 315 | 214 | 101 | Def Tm | 0 | Defense | 16-10 |
| 2000 | W | STL | NOR | 380 | 279 | 101 | Def Tm | -5.5 | Defense | 31-28 |
| 1969 | S | KAN | MIN | 258 | 158 | 100 | Neut | 12 | Off | 23-7 |
| 1959 | C | BAL | NYG | 267 | 167 | 100 | Off Tm | 0 | Off | 31-16 |
| 1950 | D | RAM | CHI | 278 | 178 | 100 | Off Tm | 0 | Off | 24-14 |
For Jaguars fans looking for optimism, they want to look at the 1984 Bears, who shocked the Redskins in Washington, the 2000 Ravens, who won the AFCCG in Oakland, or more recently and comparable, the 2012 Ravens who beat the Patriots in Foxboro in the AFC title game. But of the 14 games between great offenses and great defenses (with a spread of at least 100 first downs), where the offensive juggernaut was at home and favored by a touchdown, they went 12-2, with the Bears and Ravens/Patriots upsets as the two exceptions (the Ravens/Raiders point spread was 6 points).
This isn’t quite Broncos/Seahawks when it comes to unstoppable offense meets immovable defense, but it’s about as good of a matchup as we expected to see with the Saints and Vikings last week. We will all be lucky if this game can come closer to delivering the same, but remember: one big difference there was the great offensive team was on the road.