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The Jets Outlook vs. the Saints is Petty Ugly

As it stands, Bryce Petty and the Jets are 17-point underdogs this Sunday in New Orleans. Here are the 15 largest spreads the New York Jets have faced since 1978:

Query Results Table
Vegas
Rk Tm Year Date Time LTime Opp Week G# Day Result OT Spread
vs. Line Over/Under Result
1 NYJ 2007 2007-12-16 1:02 1:02 @ NWE 15 14 Sun L 10-20 20.5 covered 41.0 under
2 NYJ 1992 1992-12-06 1:00 1:00 @ BUF 14 13 Sun W 24-17 17.0 covered 36.0 over
3 NYJ 2016 2016-12-24 1:00 1:00 @ NWE 16 15 Sat L 3-41 17.0 not covered 45.0 under
4 NYJ 2007 2007-11-22 4:20 3:20 @ DAL 12 11 Thu L 3-34 14.5 not covered 47.5 under
5 NYJ 2017 2017-09-17 4:05 1:05 @ OAK 2 2 Sun L 20-45 14.0 not covered 44.0 over
6 NYJ 1984 1984-11-26 9:00 9:00 @ MIA 13 13 Mon L 17-28 13.5 covered 45.0 push
7 NYJ 1989 1989-12-17 4:00 1:00 @ RAM 15 15 Sun L 14-38 13.0 not covered 43.0 over
8 NYJ 1996 1996-12-08 4:00 4:00 @ NWE 15 14 Sun L 10-34 13.0 not covered 43.5 over
9 NYJ 2005 2005-11-20 4:15 2:15 @ DEN 11 10 Sun L 0-27 13.0 not covered 41.0 under
10 NYJ 1978 1978-10-01 1:00 1:00 PIT 5 5 Sun L 17-28 12.5 covered 0.0 over
11 NYJ 1996 1996-09-15 1:00 1:00 @ MIA 3 3 Sun L 27-36 12.5 covered 39.5 over
12 NYJ 1992 1992-12-20 8:00 8:00 @ MIA 16 15 Sun L 17-19 11.5 covered 37.0 under
13 NYJ 2013 2013-09-12 8:29 8:29 @ NWE 2 2 Thu L 10-13 11.5 covered 43.0 under
14 NYJ 1987 1987-10-11 1:00 1:00 @ IND 5 4 Sun L 0-6 11.0 covered 0.0 over
15 NYJ 2009 2009-11-22 4:15 4:15 @ NWE 11 10 Sun L 14-31 11.0 not covered 45.0 push

In the last 4 NFL seasons, there have been just two games with a point spread of greater than 15 points. Both games took place when AFC East teams visited Foxboro. Just three weeks ago, the Patriots hosted the Dolphins and were 17-point favorites; New England took a 28-10 lead early in the third quarter, but wound up “only” winning 35-17. Two weeks later, the Patriots shockingly lost the rematch in Miami as 10.5-point favorites. And last year, the — Bryce Petty-led Jets — were 17-point underdogs in New England and lost 41-3.

That story again: the Jets are 17-point underdogs for the second time in as many starts for Bryce Petty. And the rest of the NFL has been a 16+ point underdog just one other time in the last four years.

The Jets, of course, once won a Super Bowl as an enormous underdog of 18 points (plus or minus a point or two depending on your source).  The Jets also won as a 17-point dogs in the Dennis Byrd game against the Bills. Otherwise, the Jets history as big underdogs is what you would expect: it’s mostly losses, with a mix of covering and not covering the spread.

League-wide, teams are 5-84 when underdogs of greater than 15 points in regular season games since 1978.1 And, as you would suspect, it’s mostly great teams against bad teams.

But the Jets/Saints game is interesting because the Jets are 5-8, only four games behind the 9-4 Saints. The smallest gap in wins between teams in such a large game? That happened with the 1992 Colts and Bills, who played twice back when they were AFC East rivals.  Indianapolis was 1-1 when they traveled to Buffalo in week 3, and was blown out 38-0 as 17-point dogs.  In week 13, a 4-7 Colts team was a home underdog of 16.5 points…. and beat the 9-2 Bills. Buffalo finished 11-5, while Indianapolis won out the rest of the way, finishing 9-7.

 

  1. Excluding games with replacement players in 1987. []
{ 2 comments }
  • Tom

    Wow…let me get this straight: in the last four years, the league has seen just three games with a spread greater than 15 points (including this week’s game), and Bryce Petty was/is QB in two of them? Yikes.

    This is an odd one for me…my numbers say the Saints win by 16, but it seems like too many points. The Saints running game might slow this thing down a bit, heck, maybe they even take Brees out in the 4th if it gets out of hand and the Jets get the back door cover, game ends 30-17.

  • Richie

    The Colts were 16.5 point underdogs at home? Nice.

    The PFR database has 10 games where a home team was an underdog of 15+ points. Atlanta has the lead as a 23-point underdog at home to San Francisco in 1987. I think that was a game with Atlanta using replacement players (Erik Kramer at QB) while San Francisco had most of their roster (including Joe Montana). I’m surprised the spread was only 23 points. But San Francisco won by 8 after pulling Montana in the 2nd quarter with a 13-0 lead.

    http://pfref.com/tiny/dBq9m