As it stands, Bryce Petty and the Jets are 17-point underdogs this Sunday in New Orleans. Here are the 15 largest spreads the New York Jets have faced since 1978:
|3||NYJ||2016||2016-12-24||1:00||1:00||@||NWE||16||15||Sat||L 3-41||17.0||not covered||45.0||under|
|4||NYJ||2007||2007-11-22||4:20||3:20||@||DAL||12||11||Thu||L 3-34||14.5||not covered||47.5||under|
|5||NYJ||2017||2017-09-17||4:05||1:05||@||OAK||2||2||Sun||L 20-45||14.0||not covered||44.0||over|
|7||NYJ||1989||1989-12-17||4:00||1:00||@||RAM||15||15||Sun||L 14-38||13.0||not covered||43.0||over|
|8||NYJ||1996||1996-12-08||4:00||4:00||@||NWE||15||14||Sun||L 10-34||13.0||not covered||43.5||over|
|9||NYJ||2005||2005-11-20||4:15||2:15||@||DEN||11||10||Sun||L 0-27||13.0||not covered||41.0||under|
|15||NYJ||2009||2009-11-22||4:15||4:15||@||NWE||11||10||Sun||L 14-31||11.0||not covered||45.0||push|
In the last 4 NFL seasons, there have been just two games with a point spread of greater than 15 points. Both games took place when AFC East teams visited Foxboro. Just three weeks ago, the Patriots hosted the Dolphins and were 17-point favorites; New England took a 28-10 lead early in the third quarter, but wound up “only” winning 35-17. Two weeks later, the Patriots shockingly lost the rematch in Miami as 10.5-point favorites. And last year, the — Bryce Petty-led Jets — were 17-point underdogs in New England and lost 41-3.
That story again: the Jets are 17-point underdogs for the second time in as many starts for Bryce Petty. And the rest of the NFL has been a 16+ point underdog just one other time in the last four years.
The Jets, of course, once won a Super Bowl as an enormous underdog of 18 points (plus or minus a point or two depending on your source). The Jets also won as a 17-point dogs in the Dennis Byrd game against the Bills. Otherwise, the Jets history as big underdogs is what you would expect: it’s mostly losses, with a mix of covering and not covering the spread.
League-wide, teams are 5-84 when underdogs of greater than 15 points in regular season games since 1978.1 And, as you would suspect, it’s mostly great teams against bad teams.
But the Jets/Saints game is interesting because the Jets are 5-8, only four games behind the 9-4 Saints. The smallest gap in wins between teams in such a large game? That happened with the 1992 Colts and Bills, who played twice back when they were AFC East rivals. Indianapolis was 1-1 when they traveled to Buffalo in week 3, and was blown out 38-0 as 17-point dogs. In week 13, a 4-7 Colts team was a home underdog of 16.5 points…. and beat the 9-2 Bills. Buffalo finished 11-5, while Indianapolis won out the rest of the way, finishing 9-7.
- Excluding games with replacement players in 1987. [↩]