In games when they allow 10 or more points, the Jaguars are 0-3 so far this year.
In games when they score fewer than 27 points, the Jaguars are 0-3 so far this year.
If those stats sounds like those of a really bad team one month into an NFL season, well, you’re right. The thing is, Jacksonville has played 7 games this year. Which means maybe they’re a really good team? Because in Jacksonville’s 4 non-losses — things commonly referred to in most parts of the country as wins — the average score has been Jacksonville 32.5, Opponent 5.75. The Jaguars four wins have come by 21+ points, the first team to record four such wins through seven games since 2007.
Entering the 2017 season, the Jaguars had allowed fewer than 10 points in four out of their last 100 games. In 2017, the Jaguars have allowed fewer than 10 points in four out of seven games. The Jaguars had scored 27 or more points in just 13 of their last 100 games entering 2017; so far this year, they’ve scored 27 points in four out of seven games. So yeah, Jacksonville is suddenly a lot better than they used to be.
Jacksonville ranks 2nd in the NFL in points differential at +73. So… are the Jaguars actually good? Well, through seven weeks (but before Monday Night Football), Jacksonville also leads the NFL in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt differential, which would have sounded impossible two months ago (especially if you knew Allen Robinson would tear his ACL one catch into the season):
So why are the Jaguars just 4-3 despite leading the NFL in ANY/A differential and ranking 2nd in points differential? Well, Jacksonville has not done a good job of being efficient with their scoring. In their four wins, the Jaguars won by 21, 22, 27, and 37 points. To win a game, of course, you only need to outscore your opponent by 1 point. That means Jacksonville scored 20, 21, 26, and 36 more points than they needed to in their four wins, or an average of 25.75 excess points per game.
In three losses, Jacksonville lost by 3, 10, and 21 points. So Jaguars opponents have scored 2, 9, and 20 excess points, or an average of 10.33 excess points per game.
If you compare those two numbers, it means Jacksonville is scoring 15.4 more excess points in wins than Jaguars opponents are in Jaguars losses. That’s the largest differential in the NFL through seven weeks (and, again, excluding Monday Night Football):
So… even though Jacksonville is only 4-3, I think the Jaguars are maybe really good?
On the other side, you see the Dolphins (4-2), Cardinals (3-4), and Colts (2-5), three teams whose records far exceed their points differential. And, of course, the Browns and 49ers are off of this list by virtue of having zero wins.
What do you think?