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In 2012, the Atlanta Falcons were 11-1 through 13 weeks, just like the Cowboys are this season. And just like this year, the NFC, no other team had more than 8 wins at that point, with an NFC West squad — then, the 49ers, this season, the Seahawks — holding the second best record at 8-3-1.

Through 13 weeks, how often does a team lead its conference by at least 2.5 games?  I am defining through 13 weeks to mean:

  • In 1993, to mean through 14 weeks, since there were two weeks of byes that year.
  • From 1970 to 1989, to mean through 12 weeks, since there were zero bye weeks before 1990.
  • From 1990 to 2016 (1993, excepted), to mean through 13 weeks! That’s simple, isn’t it?

That gives us 94 seasons to analyze conference data in the post-merger era. This year, the Cowboys are at +2.5, while the Raiders and Patriots are tied at 10-2 in the AFC; that means the AFC leader is at +0. On average, the #2 team in a conference has been 1.1 games behind the #1 team in the conference through 13 weeks. Here is the breakdown:

The 2011 Falcons and 2016 Cowboys are the only teams to be exactly 2.5 games up on the rest of the conference through 13 weeks.  Who were the seven teams to be up 3 games?

  • 2009 AFC: the Colts were 12-0, while the Bengals/Chargers were 9-3.  Indianapolis went to 14-0, then 14-2, and made the Super Bowl, but lost to the Saints.
  • 2005 AFC: Another Colts team at 12-0, while the Bengals/Jaguars/Broncos were all 9-3.  Indianapolis went 13-0, then 14-2, but lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers in the division round.
  • 1998 AFC: the Broncos were 12-0,  with the Jaguars behind them at 9-3.  Denver went 13-0, then 14-2, and eventual repeated as Super Bowl champions.
  • 1985 NFC: the Bears were 12-0, with the Rams in second place in the conference at 9-3.  Chicago lost the next week to Miami, before finishing the season not only 18-1, but as Super Bowl champs.
  • 1984 NFC: the 49ers were 11-1, while the Bears were in second in the NFC at 8-4, and all other NFC teams had at least 5 losses.  San Francisco not only finished the season 18-1, but won the Super Bowl.
  • 1973 AFC: the Dolphins were 11-1, while the Steelers/Bengals were 8-4.  Miami would repeat as Super Bowl champions, and finish 15-2.
  • 1972 AFC: you may have heard that the Dolphins went 17-0 this season.  Miami was at 12-0 at our time of measurement, while the Steelers were second in the AFC at 9-3.
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