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While we often focus on the rules changes that have helped make passing offenses much more efficient over the years, there’s another small reason for the improvement in aerial attacks: better climates. Let’s compare the stadiums in the NFL now to the stadiums of the early 1970s.

Expansion/Re-Location

There are 7 new cities (and one deserted city) that have joined the NFL since the early ’70s, when the league still had just 26 teams.  Five of these new cities helped the passing game by bringing in more mild-climate games due to warm weather locations or indoor stadiums. [1]Note that I am ignoring the California changes here. The Rams played in southern California in the ’70s and now, even if there was a St. Louis stop in the middle (which that was mostly indoors, … Continue reading

  • There was no team in Indianapolis, which has an indoor stadium. [2]Of course, the Colts played in Baltimore, and no longer do; but for purposes of looking at geography, there was a team in Baltimore in the ’70s and a team in Baltimore now; Indianapolis is the … Continue reading
  • The Cardinals did not play in Arizona, which has an indoor stadium, but instead played outdoors in the 1970s in St. Louis (the deserted city).
  • There was no team in Tampa Bay, a warm-weather city
  • There was no team in Carolina, a warm-weather city
  • There was no team in Jacksonville, a warm-weather city

While those fives changes made passing easier by decreasing the impact of the elements in the northern cities, two changes increased the impact of the weather.

  • There was a team in Houston playing indoors at the Astrodome, but the franchise founded by Bud Adams now play outdoors in Nashville, Tennessee. Of course, they were replaced by another team playing inside in Houston.
  • There was no team in Seattle, which is a cold-weather city.

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References

References
1 Note that I am ignoring the California changes here. The Rams played in southern California in the ’70s and now, even if there was a St. Louis stop in the middle (which that was mostly indoors, anyway).  I am also ignoring the Raiders bouncing between Oakland and Los Angeles and Oakland and now Las Vegas, the Chargers moving to L.A. from San Diego, and the 49ers going from San Francisco to Santa Clara.
2 Of course, the Colts played in Baltimore, and no longer do; but for purposes of looking at geography, there was a team in Baltimore in the ’70s and a team in Baltimore now; Indianapolis is the new city, even if for expansion purposes, it didn’t quite work out that way. Similarly, there was a team playing indoors in Houston in the ’70s and now, regardless of whether it was the Oilers or the Texans.
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First Season in a New Stadium

This year, the Vikings will play their home games at the University of Minnesota’s TCF Bank Stadium. The Metrodome is no longer, and Minnesota will play outdoors for two years before moving into a new indoor facility in 2016.

Should we expect the Vikings to struggle in 2014 in their temporary home? This scare piece noted that since the merger, only four teams (excluding those that moved cities) have played games in a temporary stadium for at least one season, and those teams saw an average decline of 5.8 wins. That’s a pretty misleading statistic, though. Consider:

  • One of the teams included was the 2005 Saints, who dropped from 8 to 3 wins as the team played “home” games in Baton Rouge, San Antonio, and uh, East Rutherford following Hurricane Katrina. I don’t think the 2005 Saints are an appropriate comparison for any team.
  • Another team was the 2002 Chicago Bears, who played in Champaign, Illinois while Soldier Field was being remodeled. The 2001 Bears were one of football’s great flukes: Chicago’s win probability added in the 4th quarter and overtime of games was one of the highest ever. Jim Miller and Shane Matthews led five 4th quarter comebacks. The Bears were 27th in yards per carry, allowed more net yards per pass than they gained, and yet went 13-3. Safety Mike Brown scored interception return touchdowns in overtime in consecutive weeks. And then the Bears promptly went 4-12 in 2002.
  • The 1973 Giants are another team used in the study. New York used to play in Yankee Stadium, which as you may know was primarily a baseball park. On September 30th, 1973, the stadium closed for renovations for two (baseball) years. Of course, that meant it would be closed for nearly three football years: the Giants played the rest of ’73 and all of 1974 at the Yale Bowl in Connecticut; in 1975, the Giants shared Shea Stadium with the Jets, just as the Yankees were doing with the Mets.

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