Super Bowl Betting History

by Chase Stuart on January 24, 2018

Super Bowl LII features the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots are favored by 5 points (the line opened at NE -5.5) and the over/under is 48 points. There have been 51 prior Super Bowls, so how do those lines compare?

On average, the point spread has been 6.9 points with an over/under of 44.2 points. The average final score? Winning team 30.2, losing team 16.1. In the Patriots era (i.e., 2001-2016), the average spread has been 5.4 points, with an over/under of 48.4 points, nearly perfectly matching this year’s numbers.

Underdogs are 16-34 straight up in Super Bowls (the Seahawks/Patriots Super Bowl line was a push). The last 8 Super Bowl champions all covered the spread, in part because of low lines (none higher than 5 points) and in larger part because four of the last five Super Bowl champions were underdogs. Overall, underdogs are 22-26-2 against the spread.

There have been just six Super Bowls where the spread mattered (i.e., the underdog covered the spread but still lost): Steelers/Cowboys in ’75, 49ers/Bengals in ’88, Cowboys/Steelers in ’95, Patriots/Panthers in 2003, Patriots/Eagles in 2004, and Steelers/Cardinals in 2008.

The “over” has hit in 4 of the last 5 games, bringing the Over’s mark to 27-24 overall.

The table below shows the full results.

Year	SB	Tm	PF	Opp	PA	Spread	vs. Line	Over/Under	OU Result
1966	I	GNB	35	KAN	10	-14	covered	40	over
1967	II	GNB	33	OAK	14	-13.5	covered	43	over
1968	III	NYJ	16	BAL	7	18	covered	40	under
1969	IV	KAN	23	MIN	7	12	covered	39	under
1970	V	BAL	16	DAL	13	-2.5	covered	36	under
1971	VI	DAL	24	MIA	3	-6	covered	34	under
1972	VII	MIA	14	WAS	7	-1	covered	33	under
1973	VIII	MIA	24	MIN	7	-6.5	covered	33	under
1974	IX	PIT	16	MIN	6	-3	covered	33	under
1975	X	PIT	21	DAL	17	-7	not covered	36	over
1976	XI	OAK	32	MIN	14	-4	covered	38	over
1977	XII	DAL	27	DEN	10	-6	covered	39	under
1978	XIII	PIT	35	DAL	31	-3.5	covered	37	over
1979	XIV	PIT	31	RAM	19	-10	covered	36	over
1980	XV	OAK	27	PHI	10	3	covered	37.5	under
1981	XVI	SFO	26	CIN	21	-1	covered	48	under
1982	XVII	WAS	27	MIA	17	3	covered	36.5	over
1983	XVIII	RAI	38	WAS	9	2	covered	48	under
1984	XIX	SFO	38	MIA	16	-3	covered	53.5	over
1985	XX	CHI	46	NWE	10	-10	covered	37.5	over
1986	XXI	NYG	39	DEN	20	-9	covered	41	over
1987	XXII	WAS	42	DEN	10	3.5	covered	47	over
1988	XXIII	SFO	20	CIN	16	-6	not covered	46	under
1989	XXIV	SFO	55	DEN	10	-13	covered	48	over
1990	XXV	NYG	20	BUF	19	6.5	covered	40	under
1991	XXVI	WAS	37	BUF	24	-7	covered	48	over
1992	XXVII	DAL	52	BUF	17	-6.5	covered	45	over
1993	XXVIII	DAL	30	BUF	13	-10.5	covered	50	under
1994	XXIX	SFO	49	SDG	26	-19	covered	52	over
1995	XXX	DAL	27	PIT	17	-13.5	not covered	51	under
1996	XXXI	GNB	35	NWE	21	-14	push	52	over
1997	XXXII	DEN	31	GNB	24	11	covered	50	over
1998	XXXIII	DEN	34	ATL	19	-7.5	covered	52	over
1999	XXXIV	STL	23	TEN	16	-7	push	48	under
2000	XXXV	BAL	34	NYG	7	-3	covered	33	over
2001	XXXVI	NWE	20	STL	17	14	covered	52.5	under
2002	XXXVII	TAM	48	OAK	21	3.5	covered	44	over
2003	XXXVIII	NWE	32	CAR	29	-7	not covered	38	over
2004	XXXIX	NWE	24	PHI	21	-7	not covered	47	under
2005	XL	PIT	21	SEA	10	-4	covered	47	under
2006	XLI	IND	29	CHI	17	-6.5	covered	47	under
2007	XLII	NYG	17	NWE	14	12.5	covered	54.5	under
2008	XLIII	PIT	27	ARI	23	-6.5	not covered	46.5	over
2009	XLIV	NOR	31	IND	17	4.5	covered	56.5	under
2010	XLV	GNB	31	PIT	25	-3	covered	45	over
2011	XLVI	NYG	21	NWE	17	3	covered	53.5	under
2012	XLVII	BAL	34	SFO	31	4.5	covered	48	over
2013	XLVIII	SEA	43	DEN	8	2.5	covered	47.5	over
2014	XLIX	NWE	28	SEA	24	0	covered	47	over
2015	50	DEN	24	CAR	10	5	covered	44	under
2016	LI	NWE	34	ATL	28	-3	covered	57	over
2017	LII	NWE		PHI		-5

The largest spread? San Francisco – 19 vs. San Diego in Super Bowl XXIX.

The largest upset? Jets +18 over Baltimore in Super Bowl III.

The largest over/under? 57, in last year’s game between the Patriots and Falcons. It still went over, although it needed overtime.

The lowest over/under? 33, in four different games: Super Bowls VII, VIII, and IX from ’72 to ’74, and Super Bowl XXXV, featuring the Ravens and Giants. The under still hit in three of those games.

What stands out to you?

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