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Single-Season Cellar Dwellars in OPPED

On Sunday, I looked at the single-season leaders in estimated offensive points per estimated drive. Today, let’s look at the reverse: the teams since 1950 with the fewest points per estimated drive.

The 1977 Bucs ranked last in the NFL in points, yards, first downs, passing yards, passing touchdowns, net yards per attempt, rushing yards, and rushing yards per carry. The team ranked third from last in rushing touchdowns and interceptions. It was that kind of year for Tampa Bay, as the team was shut out 6 times in 14 games, and held to just a field goal in three others.

Tampa scored just 103 points, but the defense scored four touchdowns! As a result, the Bucs get credit for just 76 estimated offensive points (the offense does get credit for one missed extra point), the fewest of any team since 1950.

RkTeamYrLgEst Drive (End)Est Drive (St)Est OptsOPPED
1Tampa Bay Buccaneers1977NFL170185760.43
2Atlanta Falcons1974NFL177186970.53
3Seattle Seahawks1992NFL1862031330.68
4Tampa Bay Buccaneers1976NFL1621791220.72
5Green Bay Packers1977NFL1491621160.75
6Buffalo Bills1977NFL1591781320.78
7Buffalo Bills1968AFL1862031540.79
8Oakland Raiders2006NFL1621731380.82
9Indianapolis Colts1991NFL1531711360.84
10Detroit Lions1977NFL1691861500.85
11Baltimore Colts1954NFL1421511240.85
12Atlanta Falcons1977NFL1781901580.86
13Cleveland Browns2000NFL1711861540.86
14Houston Texans2002NFL1882061700.86
15New Orleans Saints1975NFL1721781520.87
16New York Jets1976NFL1681791520.88
17New England Patriots1992NFL1851931660.88
18Boston Patriots1970NFL1681691500.89
19Chicago Cardinals1952NFL1611661460.89
20Atlanta Falcons1976NFL1851931700.9
21Atlanta Falcons1967NFL1651761540.9
22New York Giants1977NFL1741821610.9
23Chicago Bears2004NFL1912021780.91
24Philadelphia Eagles1998NFL1681871610.91
25Chicago Bears1974NFL1611751530.91
26San Diego Chargers1973NFL1691861620.91
27Baltimore Colts1953NFL1701811610.92
28Philadelphia Eagles1972NFL1501631440.92
29Dallas Cowboys2002NFL1892071830.92
30Buffalo Bills1971NFL1681811620.93
31New Orleans Saints1970NFL1661751590.93
32Chicago Bears1971NFL1751911710.93
33Chicago Cardinals1954NFL1541671500.93
34Cincinnati Bengals2000NFL1701911690.94
35Washington Redskins1961NFL1611821620.94
36Pittsburgh Steelers1951NFL1561701540.94
37Denver Broncos1966AFL1671881680.95
38Philadelphia Eagles1956NFL1371521370.95
39New Orleans Saints1973NFL1691731630.95
40Houston Oilers1972NFL1571741580.95
41Philadelphia Eagles1976NFL1661811660.96
42San Francisco 49ers1978NFL2072222060.96
43St. Louis Rams2011NFL1731911750.96
44Buffalo Bills1970NFL1761911770.96
45Chicago Bears1975NFL1781911790.97
46New York Giants1953NFL1631731630.97
47Pittsburgh Steelers1965NFL1741821730.97
48New Orleans Saints1974NFL1591701600.97
49Miami Dolphins1966AFL1681951770.98
50Green Bay Packers1970NFL1751901780.98
51Chicago Bears1973NFL1721861750.98
52New England Patriots1990NFL1691841740.99
53St. Louis Rams2009NFL1641781690.99
54New York Giants1976NFL1551751640.99
55Baltimore Colts1982NFL951061001
56Pittsburgh Steelers1957NFL1471541501
57Houston Oilers1973NFL1821891851
58Atlanta Falcons1968NFL1531641591
59Green Bay Packers1953NFL1671831761.01
60Dallas Texans1952NFL1701781751.01
61Phoenix Cardinals1991NFL1621841751.01
62Chicago Cardinals1953NFL1691751741.01
63Carolina Panthers2010NFL1771921871.01
64Cincinnati Bengals1993NFL1551801701.01
65New York Jets1995NFL1912092051.03
66Indianapolis Colts1993NFL1641781761.03
67Atlanta Falcons1978NFL2012182161.03
68Buffalo Bills1985NFL1831901931.03
69Dallas Cowboys1989NFL1661761771.04
70San Francisco 49ers2005NFL1891911971.04
71Baltimore Colts1950NFL1661841821.04
72Boston Patriots1968AFL2002072131.05
73Oakland Raiders1962AFL1842012021.05
74New York Giants1996NFL1811961981.05
75Cincinnati Bengals1978NFL1992122161.05
76Chicago Bears2000NFL1701891891.05
77Pittsburgh Steelers1953NFL1501781731.05
78Baltimore Colts1978NFL1852052061.06
79New York Giants1951NFL1631811831.06
80Green Bay Packers1974NFL1601781801.07
81Washington Redskins1977NFL1771911961.07
82Chicago Bears1981NFL2052172251.07
83Kansas City Chiefs1977NFL1781821921.07
84Detroit Lions1979NFL1871972051.07
85Oakland Raiders2009NFL1761931971.07
86Cincinnati Bengals2008NFL1691771851.07
87Atlanta Falcons1987NFL1731821901.07
88Philadelphia Eagles1957NFL1401581601.07
89Detroit Lions1966NFL1721851921.08
90San Diego Chargers1997NFL1741911971.08
91Philadelphia Eagles1971NFL1661801871.08
92Pittsburgh Steelers1970NFL1821972051.08
93San Francisco 49ers1963NFL1561701771.09
94Atlanta Falcons1970NFL1611721811.09
95Philadelphia Eagles1999NFL2012112241.09
96Denver Broncos1971NFL1701851941.09
97New York Giants1979NFL1912042161.09
98Denver Broncos1964AFL1851992101.09
99Chicago Bears1967NFL1581821861.09
100Houston Oilers1976NFL1851962091.1
101Tampa Bay Buccaneers2006NFL1671811911.1
102Arizona Cardinals2012NFL1962062221.1
102New York Jets1977NFL1621731851.1
104Tampa Bay Buccaneers1991NFL1751851991.11
105Denver Broncos1961AFL2052052271.11
106New England Patriots1991NFL1741872001.11
107Chicago Bears1953NFL1621791891.11
108San Diego Chargers1975NFL1551751831.11
109Green Bay Packers1978NFL1952042221.11
110Pittsburgh Steelers1955NFL1611751871.11
111Indianapolis Colts1992NFL1711791951.11
112Arizona Cardinals2010NFL1751922051.12
113Carolina Panthers2002NFL1962102271.12
114Kansas City Chiefs2011NFL1661881981.12
115Detroit Lions1988NFL1721852001.12
116New Orleans Saints1997NFL1922062231.12
117Philadelphia Eagles1952NFL1671791941.12
118Kansas City Chiefs1974NFL1671861981.12
119Houston Oilers1994NFL1821902091.12
120Minnesota Vikings1967NFL1671851981.13
121Houston Oilers1971NFL1761882051.13
122New Orleans Saints1967NFL1651831961.13
123San Francisco 49ers2007NFL1811952121.13
124Miami Dolphins1969AFL1751922071.13
125New York Jets1992NFL1631861971.13
126San Diego Chargers1998NFL1982132321.13
127Tampa Bay Buccaneers1983NFL1862002191.13
128New England Patriots1972NFL1531731851.13
129Seattle Seahawks1982NFL1021111211.14
130San Diego Chargers1988NFL1611841961.14
131Carolina Panthers2001NFL1782022161.14
132Pittsburgh Steelers1950NFL1581551781.14
133Houston Oilers1970NFL1771882081.14
134Washington Redskins1956NFL1401461631.14
135Washington Redskins1960NFL1401601711.14
136Pittsburgh Steelers1969NFL1791902111.14
137Green Bay Packers1973NFL1521651821.15
138St. Louis Cardinals1986NFL1711912081.15
139Cleveland Browns1990NFL1691842031.15
140Chicago Cardinals1955NFL1661731951.15
141Los Angeles Rams1962NFL1671771981.15
142St. Louis Cardinals1972NFL1551611821.15
143Buffalo Bills1984NFL1832022221.15
144Kansas City Chiefs2012NFL1711812031.15
145Tampa Bay Buccaneers2009NFL1711912091.15
145Buffalo Bills1967AFL1761862091.15
147Los Angeles Rams1963NFL1671822021.16
148San Diego Chargers1987NFL1801932161.16
149Cincinnati Bengals2001NFL1751912121.16
150Denver Broncos1982NFL1081181311.16
151Kansas City Chiefs1979NFL1741902111.16
152Denver Broncos1967AFL1901982251.16
153New York Giants2003NFL1791902141.16
154Detroit Lions1968NFL1551691881.16
155Cleveland Browns1975NFL1631781981.16
156Cleveland Browns1956NFL1161331451.16
157Green Bay Packers1976NFL1731792051.16
158Indianapolis Colts1984NFL1871972241.17
159Chicago Bears1982NFL1131131321.17
160Washington Redskins1954NFL1511621831.17
161Chicago Cardinals1959NFL1511671861.17
162Green Bay Packers1975NFL1751852111.17
163Oakland Raiders1981NFL2002182451.17
164Tampa Bay Buccaneers1978NFL1932132381.17
165Green Bay Packers1950NFL1781832121.17
166Green Bay Packers1988NFL1891992281.18
167Oakland Raiders1998NFL1982092401.18
168Arizona Cardinals1999NFL1861952251.18
168Atlanta Falcons1988NFL1901912251.18
170Washington Redskins1993NFL1651772021.18
171Dallas Cowboys1960NFL1481551791.18
172Kansas City Chiefs2007NFL1801892181.18
173New Orleans Saints1972NFL1571711941.18
174Chicago Bears1993NFL1631752001.18
175Buffalo Bills1969AFL1801902191.18
176New Orleans Saints1976NFL1821932221.18
177Chicago Bears1969NFL1601761991.18
178New York Giants1983NFL2072182521.19
179New Orleans Saints1981NFL1621872071.19
180Jacksonville Jaguars2011NFL1701942161.19
181New York Giants1971NFL1541711931.19
182Indianapolis Colts1986NFL1761962211.19
183San Diego Chargers2000NFL1942032361.19
184Philadelphia Eagles1977NFL1761892171.19
185Chicago Bears2005NFL1791912201.19
186Washington Redskins1953NFL1611531871.19
187Baltimore Colts1974NFL1501681901.19
188Cincinnati Bengals1968AFL1561671931.2
189Washington Redskins1978NFL1992122461.2
190Buffalo Bills1979NFL1882092381.2
191Dallas Cowboys1964NFL1761852171.2
192Cleveland Browns1999NFL1781872201.21
193New York Jets1989NFL1751842171.21
193Cleveland Browns2006NFL1761832171.21
195Washington Redskins2004NFL1831892251.21
196Cleveland Browns2009NFL1711862161.21
197Philadelphia Eagles1968NFL1511631901.21
198Arizona Cardinals1994NFL1831922271.21
199New York Giants1978NFL1892042381.21
200Detroit Lions1959NFL1501651911.21

Scoring has risen over the last few decades, but that’s due to increased field goal success rate. I thought it would be interesting to look at OPPED on a league-wide basis for each year going back to 1950. That data is presented in the table below.

Lg YearEst Drive (End)Est Drive (St)Est OptsOPPED
NFL2014166.9180.5337.41.95
NFL2013174.2187.2346.51.92
NFL2012170.4183.4333.21.89
NFL2011171.1184.63291.86
NFL2010170183.93261.85
NFL2009168.9182.73201.83
NFL2008163.8177.2324.71.91
NFL2007167.3180.6316.51.84
NFL2006169.1182.6306.41.75
NFL2005170.6184.4308.61.75
NFL2004170.7183.93171.81
NFL2003172.4185.8307.31.72
NFL2002171.6185.3321.51.82
NFL2001173.4186.5296.61.65
NFL2000173.7187.4306.91.7
NFL1999178.9191.9304.61.65
NFL1998174.9188.1312.81.73
NFL1997175.1188.3304.41.69
NFL1996172.3186304.21.7
NFL1995170.8183.8318.31.81
NFL1994170.3184299.31.7
NFL1993167.6181.3277.41.59
NFL1992164.5177.7272.41.6
NFL1991164.9178.82841.66
NFL1990163.3177301.21.78
NFL1989174.5188.1306.91.69
NFL1988176.6191306.21.67
NFL1987175.3188.33021.67
NFL1986183.5197.6306.61.61
NFL1985186.9200.7324.11.67
NFL1984182195.3316.61.68
NFL1983186.3199.3324.51.68
NFL1982102.9110.6171.11.61
NFL1981185.6199.6313.81.63
NFL1980179.2193.3310.51.67
NFL1979184.1198.2304.91.6
NFL1978186.1200.4276.31.44
NFL1977165.4177.8223.61.31
NFL1976170.9183.3254.41.44
NFL1975167.4179.3270.31.56
NFL1974159.4171.4238.21.45
NFL1973162.8175253.31.51
NFL1972156.1168.2264.31.63
NFL1971162.4174.1248.41.48
NFL1970166.1178.52491.46
AFL1969174.1185.3274.91.53
NFL1969163.3175.4273.11.61
AFL1968178189.1281.21.54
NFL1968159.7171.8267.61.62
NFL1967167.9179.1278.61.61
AFL1967173.8184.1286.71.6
NFL1966166.4177.5276.61.62
AFL1966172.7184.4291.11.64
AFL1965179.3191.3276.61.49
NFL1965163.7174.42941.74
AFL1964180.3191.9303.61.63
NFL1964167.5178.3281.91.64
AFL1963176.8188300.51.65
NFL1963164.1175.8286.31.68
AFL1962180191.8299.61.62
NFL1962162.9175.2295.11.76
AFL1961182.4192.1308.11.65
NFL1961163.5176283.41.68
AFL1960183195316.51.68
NFL1960144.6154.8243.31.63
NFL1959142.3152.6236.71.62
NFL1958146.5157.1255.51.68
NFL1957142.3152.8223.91.52
NFL1956138.5148.9227.21.57
NFL1955152.4162.7230.61.47
NFL1954152.7162.6241.51.53
NFL1953161170.5235.81.44
NFL1952164.5174.1236.71.4
NFL1951155165.3243.31.52
NFL1950160.8169.8248.91.5

I’m short on time today, so that’s all for me. Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

  • Tim Truemper

    6 of the worst 10 all occurred in the 1970’s and before the initial changes in passing rules. Wow. Sure was a “dead ball” era for those teams on those seasons. Notable was stats for B/U QB Randy Hedberg. 10 interceptions and 27% completion rate. Boy is that miserable.

    • Tom

      And amidst those dead ball era teams, coming in at #8? The 2006 Raiders…ouch.

  • 1977 Buccaneers offensive points by week: 3, 3, 0, 0, 23(!), 0, 10, 0, 0, 7, 0, 0, 13 (first win in franchise history, thanks to 3 defensive TDs), 17 (second win!).

    • JeremyDeShetler

      Just to add, the 23 pts in W5 was against fellow expansion team Seattle.

  • Adam

    The second chart is very nifty. Cool to see drive stats back through history.

  • Richie

    I think the league OPPED needs a graph!

    http://i.imgur.com/WNRC4PT.png

    • Richie

      Look at 1977! I guess that’s why they decided to change the rules.

      • Adam

        What happened in 1977 to cause the bottom to fall out of offensive football? The rest of the dead ball era was pretty lively compared to ’77.

        • Richie

          21 of the 28 teams had fewer total yards in 1977 than they did in 1976, led by Detroit who dropped 26% from 4,353 to 3,224. And it was fairly evenly split between their running game and passing game.

          Detroit Lions
          -1129

          Kansas City Chiefs
          -866

          Minnesota Vikings
          -669

          Baltimore Colts
          -648

          St. Louis Cardinals
          -595

          San Francisco 49ers
          -491

          Washington Redskins
          -481

          Oakland Raiders
          -454

          San Diego Chargers
          -451

          New York Giants
          -412

          New England Patriots
          -384

          Tampa Bay Buccaneers
          -313

          Los Angeles Rams
          -278

          Green Bay Packers
          -240

          Denver Broncos
          -230

          Cleveland Browns
          -167

          New Orleans Saints
          -162

          Cincinnati Bengals
          -106

          Dallas Cowboys
          -72

          Miami Dolphins
          -59

          Buffalo Bills
          -13

          Philadelphia Eagles
          6

          Pittsburgh Steelers
          8

          New York Jets
          90

          Atlanta Falcons
          143

          Seattle Seahawks
          227

          Houston Oilers
          294

          Chicago Bears
          812

          Detroit had a stretch of 5-straight games with under 100 passing yards: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/det/1977.htm

        • Richie

          Yeah, there must have been something going on in 1977. It had to be more than just a continuing trend.

          But it doesn’t look like it had to do with rule changes. Most of the rule changes that began in 1977 look like they would have helped the offense:

          The head slap is outlawed. This change is referred to as the “Deacon Jones Rule”; the Rams’ defensive end frequently used this technique.

          Any shoe worn by a player with an artificial limb must have a
          kicking surface that conforms to that of a normal kicking shoe.
          Informally referred to as the “Tom Dempsey
          Rule.” Dempsey is a record-breaking placekicker whose modified shoe
          (having a flattened and enlarged toe area) on his deformed kicking foot
          generated controversy during his career.

          Defenders are only permitted to make contact with receivers once.

          Defenders are not allowed to make contact with an opponent above the
          shoulders with the palms of their hands, except to ward him off the
          line.

          Offensive linemen are not allowed to thrust their hands to a defender’s neck, face, or head.

          Wide receivers are not allowed to clip defenders.

      • When you set the axis to 0 instead of 1, the dip doesn’t appear to be quite as significant (although the number doesn’t change at all, of course). The fact that the line progresses from 1977 through 1978 to 1979 pretty smoothly also tricks the eyes into thinking the difference is greater than it is. 1977 also looks less stark if you look at 1973-78 as a the trough in a larger series of waves with 1975 as the actual outlier.

        Here’s a look at OPPED and PPG over the same time frame with the axis at 0
        https://twitter.com/LaverneusDingle/status/616280115752800256/photo/1

      • I haven’t made the graphic for the entire league’s history yet, but from 1941 onward the biggest offensive jump between any two years is 1946-1947. There were no major rules changes to impact this, and I doubt a post-war return to normalcy had much to do with it. This is a look at the league averages in total adjusted yards per game from 1941-1969.