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Yesterday, we looked at quarterback records against the spread.  In that post, I noted that Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favorites in a remarkable 52 consecutive games, which would nearly be an NFL record if Brady hadn’t missed any games. For his career, the Patriots have been favored in 232 games that Brady has started, been an underdog 52 times, and the line has been a Pick’em in 4 games.

The table below shows the number of games that each quarterback’s team has been a favorite, underdog, or pick’em since 1978. For quarterbacks who started games before 1978, like Terry Bradshaw, I have played ** next to their name to indicate that this data does not cover their whole career.  Post-1978 Bradshaw, however, has the highest percentage of games as a favorite, followed by Steve Young and then Brady.

RkQuarterbackFYrLYrStartsFavDogPkFav %
1Terry Bradshaw**1978198378661110.853
2Steve Young198519991571302610.831
3Tom Brady200120172882325240.813
4Joe Montana197919941871483360.807
5Danny White19781987102801840.804
6Peyton Manning199820152922305840.795
7Ben Roethlisberger200420172191685100.767
8Aaron Rodgers200820171581203800.759
9Mark Rypien1988199585642100.753
10Russell Wilson20122017108802620.75
11Jim Plunkett**1980198667501700.746
12Pat Haden**1978198140291100.725
13Tony Romo20062015133943900.707
14Kurt Warner19992009129874020.682
15Jeff Hostetler1988199788602800.682
16Jim Kelly198619961771185450.681
17Dan Fouts**19781987135914310.678
18John Elway198319982521667790.677
19Brett Favre1992201032221510340.674
20Dan Marino198319992581738410.672
21Troy Aikman198920001801215900.672
22Craig Morton**1978198252331630.663
23Steve Bono1987199843281410.663
24Brian Griese1999200883552800.663
25Donovan McNabb199920111771166010.658
26Rich Gannon19902004139895000.64
27Wade Wilson1983199874472700.635
28Ken Stabler**1978198383523010.633
29Brad Johnson19962008132834900.629
30Kordell Stewart1997200386543200.628
31Joe Flacco200820171691066300.627
32Jay Fiedler1999200463392310.627
33Matt Ryan200820171681046310.622
34Drew Brees200220172611619910.619
35Bobby Hebert19851996103623830.617
36Joe Theismann**19781985121724450.616
37Mike Tomczak1986199978483000.615
38Marc Wilson1981199061362230.615
39Randall Cunningham19852001144875520.611
40Michael Vick20012015118724600.61
41Philip Rivers200620172011217730.609
42Elvis Grbac1995200173432820.603
43Colin Kaepernick2012201664382510.602
44Alex Smith20052017158946220.601
45Jay Schroeder19851994104624110.601
46Stan Humphries1990199787513420.598
47David Woodley1980198558332230.595
48Matt Schaub2004201594553810.59
49Tony Eason1983198956322220.589
50Phil Simms19791993169986830.589
51Bernie Kosar19851995115664630.587
51Trent Green19982008115674710.587
53Jake Delhomme19992010104594140.587
54Steve Grogan**19781990102584220.578
55Dan Pastorini**1978198146262000.565
56Jim McMahon19821994103574420.563
57Andy Dalton20112017113634910.562
58Steve Bartkowski**19781986108604710.56
59Cam Newton20112017115645100.557
60Mark Brunell19952009161877130.55
61Andrew Luck2012201676413410.546
62Mark Sanchez2009201578423510.545
63Kyle Boller2003201147252110.543
64Drew Bledsoe199320061991069030.54
65Eli Manning2004201722612110320.54
66Matt Hasselbeck20012015171927900.538
67Nick Foles2012201743232000.535
68Steve McNair19952007163857440.534
69Carson Palmer20042017185978620.53
70Dave Krieg19811996184958720.522
71Warren Moon1984200021310910130.519
72Rex Grossman2003201151262500.51
73Daunte Culpepper20002009104535100.51
74Neil O'Donnell19912003107535220.505
75Jeff Garcia19992008122616010.504
76Matthew Stafford20092017128646310.504
77Richard Todd**1978198495464630.5
77Vince Ferragamo1979198559282830.5
77Doug Flutie1986200468343400.5
77David Garrard2002201078383820.5
81Ron Jaworski**19781989133646630.492
82Tommy Kramer**19791989113555710.491
83Case Keenum2013201740192010.488
84Vince Young2006201151242610.48
85Doug Williams1978198988414520.477
85Marcus Mariota2015201744212300.477
87Boomer Esiason19841997178829240.472
88Jake Plummer19972006142667510.468
89Scott Mitchell1993200073333820.466
90Eric Hipple1981198958273100.466
91Lynn Dickey**1979198584384420.464
92Bubby Brister1986199877354110.461
93Kerry Collins199520111878410030.457
94Ken Anderson**1978198592414920.457
95Ken O'Brien19841993112506020.455
96Trent Dilfer19942007119546500.454
97Brian Sipe**1978198385364450.453
98Jim Harbaugh19882000145637840.448
98Chad Pennington2002201087384720.448
100Gus Frerotte1994200895415130.447
101Steve Beuerlein19882003104455630.447
102Jay Cutler20062017155688520.445
103Tyrod Taylor2015201743192400.442
104Steve Walsh1989199641182300.439
105Marc Bulger2002200998435500.439
106Kyle Orton2005201482354700.427
107Aaron Brooks2000200692385220.424
108Mark Malone1981198855213040.418
109Jim Everett19861997158649040.418
110Rodney Peete1989200389365120.416
111Gary Danielson**1978198859243410.415
112Joe Ferguson**19781989111446430.41
113Neil Lomax19811988102405930.407
114Ryan Tannehill2012201677314600.403
115Ryan Fitzpatrick20052017119477110.399
116Derek Anderson2006201647182810.394
117Sam Bradford2010201780314900.388
118Jeff George19902001127487720.386
119Steve Fuller1979198644152630.375
120Byron Leftwich2003201251193200.373
121Vinny Testaverde198720072198013810.368
122Charlie Batch1998201255203500.364
123Chris Chandler19882004155559820.361
124Jason Campbell2006201379285010.361
125Erik Kramer1987199970234430.35
126Kirk Cousins2012201758203800.345
127Bert Jones**1978198241142700.341
127Matt Cassel2008201782275320.341
127Robert Griffin2012201641132620.341
130Steve DeBerg19781998144489510.337
131Jim Hart**1978198355183610.336
132Jon Kitna19972010125418220.336
133Jameis Winston2015201745142920.333
134Jim Zorn**1978198782255430.323
135Derek Carr2014201762204200.323
136Blake Bortles2014201764204400.313
137Chris Miller1987199994286420.309
138Don Majkowski1987199657173910.307
139Tony Banks1996200378235410.301
140Joey Harrington2002200776215230.296
141Josh Freeman2009201561184300.295
142Billy Joe Tolliver1989199947133400.277
143Dave Brown1994200060164310.275
143Jeff Blake19942003100267130.275
145Rick Mirer1993200368174920.265
146Bill Kenney1980198877195620.26
147Josh McCown2003201773175600.233
148Archie Manning**1978198469155220.232
149Chad Henne2009201453114200.208
150Jack Trudeau198619945093920.2
151Tim Couch1999200359104900.169
152David Carr2002200779126700.152
153Mike Pagel198219905464620.13
154Blaine Gabbert201120174534200.067

How has each quarterback’s team fared — straight up, not against the spread — when favored to win? Under Brady, the Patriots have won 188 games and lost 44 as a favorite, a winning percentage of 81%. To adjust for games played (some quarterbacks here have less than 15 games started as a favorite), I’ve included a column for adjusted winning percentage: this adds 40 games of 0.500 ball to each quarterback’s record. So Brady’s teams drop to 0.765, but due to his larger sample size, that gives his Patriots the best record as a favorite. There are no real surprises in the top 15, but the table below shows this information for all 154 quarterbacks identified in the table above:

RkQuarterbackFYrLYrFavWins as FavLoss as FavAct Win %Adj Win %
1Tom Brady20012017232188440.810.765
2Peyton Manning19982015230176540.7650.726
3Joe Montana19791994148112360.7570.702
4John Elway19831998166124410.750.701
5Steve Young1985199913098320.7540.694
5Brett Favre19922010215157580.730.694
7Jim McMahon198219945747100.8250.691
8Aaron Rodgers2008201712089310.7420.681
9Ben Roethlisberger20042017168121470.720.678
10Dan Marino19831999173124490.7170.676
11Russell Wilson201220178061190.7630.675
12Joe Flacco2008201710678280.7360.671
13Jim Kelly1986199611886320.7290.671
14Troy Aikman1989200012188330.7270.671
15Phil Simms197919939872260.7350.667
16Jay Schroeder198519946247150.7580.657
17Terry Bradshaw**197819836649170.7420.651
18Drew Brees20022017161110510.6830.647
19Matt Ryan2008201710473310.7020.646
20Dave Krieg198119969567280.7050.644
21Donovan McNabb1999201111680350.6940.644
22Danny White197819878057230.7130.642
23Jake Plummer199720066648180.7270.642
24Stan Humphries199019975138130.7450.637
25Mike Tomczak198619994836120.750.636
25Matt Hasselbeck200120159264280.6960.636
27Joe Theismann**197819857251210.7080.634
28Jeff Garcia199920086144170.7210.634
29Steve Bono19871998282350.8210.632
30Chad Pennington20022010382990.7630.628
31Trent Dilfer199420075439150.7220.628
32Eli Manning2004201712181400.6690.627
33Tony Romo200620159464300.6810.627
34Randall Cunningham198520018759270.6840.626
35Mark Rypien198819956445190.7030.625
35Cam Newton201120176445190.7030.625
37Steve McNair199520078558270.6820.624
38Alex Smith200520179463300.6760.623
39Mark Brunell199520098759280.6780.622
40Philip Rivers2006201712180410.6610.621
41Chris Chandler198820045539160.7090.621
42Rich Gannon199020048960290.6740.62
43Brad Johnson199620088356270.6750.618
44Drew Bledsoe1993200610670360.660.616
45Kurt Warner199920098758290.6670.614
46Bubby Brister19861998352690.7430.613
47Jim Plunkett**198019865035150.70.611
48Matt Schaub200420155538170.6910.611
49Jeff Hostetler198819976041190.6830.61
50Rex Grossman20032011262060.7690.606
51Andrew Luck201220164129120.7070.605
52Neil O'Donnell199120035336170.6790.602
53Bobby Hebert198519966241210.6610.598
54Matthew Stafford200920176442220.6560.596
55David Woodley19801985332390.7120.596
56Kordell Stewart199720035436180.6670.596
57Andy Dalton201120176340210.6510.592
58Rodney Peete198920033625110.6940.592
59Warren Moon1984200010968410.6240.591
60Marc Bulger200220094329140.6740.59
61Colin Kaepernick201220163826120.6840.59
62Tommy Kramer**197919895536190.6550.589
63Vince Ferragamo19791985282080.7140.588
63Chris Miller19871999282080.7140.588
65Dan Fouts**197819879157340.6260.588
66Carson Palmer200420179760360.6240.588
67Nick Foles20122017231760.7390.587
68Ryan Fitzpatrick200520174731160.660.586
69Jake Delhomme199920105938210.6440.586
70Tony Eason198319893222100.6880.583
71Jay Fiedler199920043926130.6670.582
72Bernie Kosar198519956641240.6290.58
73Elvis Grbac199520014328150.6510.578
74Jeff Blake19942003261880.6920.576
75Craig Morton**197819823322110.6670.575
76Jay Cutler200620176842260.6180.574
77Boomer Esiason198419978250320.610.574
78Joe Ferguson**197819894428160.6360.571
78Michael Vick200120157244280.6110.571
80Trent Green199820086741260.6120.57
81Kyle Boller20032011251780.680.569
82Derek Anderson20062016181350.7220.569
83Neil Lomax198119884025140.6380.569
84Steve DeBerg197819984830180.6250.568
85Doug Flutie198620043422120.6470.568
86Ron Jaworski**197819896439250.6090.567
87Derek Carr20142017201460.70.567
88Marc Wilson198119903623130.6390.566
89Pat Haden**197819812919100.6550.565
90Steve Beuerlein198820034528170.6220.565
91Kerry Collins199520118450340.5950.565
92Wade Wilson198319984729180.6170.563
93Jim Harbaugh198820006338250.6030.563
94Vinny Testaverde198720078047320.5940.563
94Vince Young20062011241680.6670.563
96Gus Frerotte199420084125150.6220.562
97Steve Grogan**197819905835230.6030.561
98Mark Sanchez200920154226160.6190.561
99Kyle Orton200520143522130.6290.56
100Tyrod Taylor20152017191360.6840.559
101Lynn Dickey**197919853823140.6180.558
101Jim Everett198619976438260.5940.558
103Marcus Mariota20152017211470.6670.557
104Ken Anderson**197819854125160.610.556
105Steve Walsh19891996181260.6670.552
106David Garrard200220103823150.6050.551
107Scott Mitchell199320003320130.6060.548
108Brian Griese199920085532230.5820.547
109Dan Pastorini**197819812616100.6150.545
110Jason Campbell200620132817110.6070.544
111Ken Stabler**197819835230220.5770.543
111Mike Pagel198219906510.8330.543
113Jon Kitna199720104124170.5850.543
114Byron Leftwich20032012191270.6320.542
114Case Keenum20132017191270.6320.542
116Mark Malone19811988211380.6190.541
117Erik Kramer19871999231490.6090.54
118Brian Sipe**197819833621150.5830.539
119Ken O'Brien198419935028210.570.539
120Aaron Brooks200020063822160.5790.538
121Daunte Culpepper200020095330230.5660.538
122Matt Cassel200820172716110.5930.537
123Doug Williams197819894123170.5730.537
124Josh Freeman20092015181170.6110.534
125Don Majkowski19871996171070.5880.526
126Joey Harrington20022007211290.5710.525
127Tony Banks199620032313100.5650.524
128Gary Danielson**197819882413100.5630.523
129Jeff George199020014826220.5420.523
130Eric Hipple198119892715120.5560.522
131Ryan Tannehill201220163117140.5480.521
132Jim Hart**19781983181080.5560.517
133Kirk Cousins20122017201190.550.517
133Blake Bortles20142017201190.550.517
135Blaine Gabbert201120173210.6670.512
136Jack Trudeau198619949540.5560.51
137Billy Joe Tolliver1989199913760.5380.509
138Josh McCown2003201717980.5290.509
139Bill Kenney19801988191090.5260.508
140Sam Bradford201020173116150.5160.507
141Steve Bartkowski**197819866030300.50.5
141Dave Brown1994200016880.50.5
141Jameis Winston2015201714770.50.5
144Jim Zorn**197819872512130.480.492
145Rick Mirer1993200317890.4710.491
146Archie Manning**1978198415780.4670.491
147Robert Griffin2012201613670.4620.491
148Richard Todd**197819844622240.4780.488
149Charlie Batch19982012209110.450.483
150Tim Couch1999200310460.40.48
151Steve Fuller1979198615690.40.473
152Chad Henne2009201411470.3640.471
153David Carr2002200712480.3330.462
154Bert Jones**19781982144100.2860.444

What about the reverse? This is where it gets interesting. Brady’s Patriots have a remarkable 31-21 record as an underdog, a 0.596 winning percentage. By way of comparison, since re-joining the NFL in 1999, the Cleveland Browns are 33-31 as a favorite! This means the Patriots have been more likely to win games they are expected to lose than the Browns have been to win games they have been expected to win.

RkQuarterbackFYrLYrUnderDogWins as ULoss as UAct Win %Adj Win %
1Tom Brady200120175231210.5960.554
2Jim Plunkett**19801986171160.6470.544
3Vince Young200620112615110.5770.53
4Terry Bradshaw**1978198311740.6360.529
5Danny White19781987181080.5560.517
6Ben Roethlisberger200420175127240.5290.516
7David Woodley198019852212100.5450.516
8Jake Delhomme199920104121200.5120.506
9Jeff Hostetler198819972814140.50.5
9Andrew Luck201220163417170.50.5
9Dan Pastorini**197819812010100.50.5
9Ken Stabler**197819833015150.50.5
13Richard Todd**197819844622230.4890.494
14Russell Wilson201220172612130.4810.492
15Jay Fiedler199920042311120.4780.492
16Steve McNair199520077436380.4860.491
17Jim McMahon198219944421230.4770.488
18Doug Flutie198620043416180.4710.486
19Elvis Grbac199520012813150.4640.485
19Brian Griese199920082813150.4640.485
21Randall Cunningham198520015526290.4730.484
22Andy Dalton201120174923260.4690.483
23Steve Bartkowski**197819864722250.4680.483
24Craig Morton**1978198216790.4380.482
25Charlie Batch199820123516190.4570.48
26Joe Montana197919943315180.4550.479
27Jim Zorn**197819875425290.4630.479
28Joe Theismann**197819854420240.4550.476
29Kordell Stewart199720033214180.4380.472
30Pat Haden**1978198111470.3640.471
31Donovan McNabb199920116027330.450.47
32Dan Fouts**197819874319240.4420.47
33Steve Fuller197919862611150.4230.47
34Nick Foles20122017208120.40.467
34Case Keenum20132017208120.40.467
36Ryan Tannehill201220164620260.4350.465
37Eric Hipple198119893113180.4190.465
38Steve Grogan**197819904218240.4290.463
39Steve Walsh19891996239140.3910.46
40Kyle Orton200520144720270.4260.46
41Stan Humphries199019973414200.4120.459
42Michael Vick200120154619260.4240.459
43Dave Brown199420004318250.4190.458
44Ron Jaworski**197819896628370.4320.458
45Jay Schroeder198519944117240.4150.457
46Tony Romo200620153916230.410.456
47Kirk Cousins201220173815220.4080.455
48Mark Sanchez200920153514210.40.453
49Tyrod Taylor20152017249150.3750.453
50Brian Sipe**197819834418260.4090.452
51Tony Eason19831989228140.3640.452
51Marc Wilson19811990228140.3640.452
53Alex Smith200520176226360.4190.451
54Kurt Warner199920094016240.40.45
55Brad Johnson199620084920290.4080.449
56Don Majkowski198719963915230.3970.449
57Jameis Winston201520172911180.3790.449
58David Garrard200220103815230.3950.449
59Bert Jones**197819822710170.370.448
60Jim Kelly198619965422320.4070.447
61Gary Danielson**197819883413210.3820.446
62Neil O'Donnell199120035221310.4040.446
63Cam Newton201120175120300.4020.445
64Phil Simms197919936828400.4120.444
64Steve Bono19871998144100.2860.444
64Rich Gannon199020045020300.40.444
64Byron Leftwich200320123212200.3750.444
68Mark Malone198119883011190.3670.443
69Mark Rypien19881995217140.3330.443
70Erik Kramer198719994417270.3860.44
71Rodney Peete198920035120310.3920.44
72Bill Kenney198019885622340.3930.438
73Matt Ryan200820176325380.3970.437
74Tony Banks199620035421330.3890.436
75Aaron Rodgers200820173814240.3680.436
75Bobby Hebert198519963814240.3680.436
77Doug Williams197819894517280.3780.435
78Wade Wilson19831998279180.3330.433
79Sam Bradford201020174918300.3780.433
80Matt Cassel200820175320330.3770.43
81Peyton Manning199820155822360.3790.429
81Marcus Mariota20152017237160.3040.429
83John Elway198319987730470.390.427
84Joe Flacco200820176324390.3810.427
85Tim Couch199920034918310.3670.427
86Vince Ferragamo19791985289190.3210.426
87Dave Krieg198119968734530.3910.425
88Robert Griffin20122016268180.3080.424
89Jim Harbaugh198820007830480.3850.424
90Brett Favre1992201010340630.3880.42
91Neil Lomax198119885921370.3640.419
92Trent Dilfer199420076524410.3690.419
93Philip Rivers200620177729480.3770.419
94Jack Trudeau198619943913260.3330.418
95Drew Brees200220179938610.3840.417
96Rex Grossman20032011257180.280.415
97Derek Carr201420174214280.3330.415
97Chad Henne200920144214280.3330.415
99Mike Tomczak19861999309210.30.414
100Chad Pennington200220104716310.340.414
101Tommy Kramer**197919895720370.3510.412
102Dan Marino198319998431530.3690.411
103Lynn Dickey**197919854414290.330.411
104Scott Mitchell199320003812260.3160.41
105Ken O'Brien198419936021390.350.41
106Josh Freeman200920154314290.3260.41
107Jay Cutler200620178531540.3650.408
108Gus Frerotte199420085117340.3330.407
109Steve Beuerlein198820035619370.3390.406
110Eli Manning2004201710338650.3690.406
111Carson Palmer200420178631550.360.405
112Ken Anderson**197819854916330.3270.404
113Aaron Brooks200020065217350.3270.402
114Boomer Esiason198419979233590.3590.402
115Colin Kaepernick20122016256190.240.4
116Derek Anderson20062016287210.250.397
117Bernie Kosar198519954614320.3040.395
118Bubby Brister198619984112290.2930.395
119Rick Mirer199320034915340.3060.393
120Trent Green199820084714330.2980.391
121Mark Brunell199520097123480.3240.387
122Matt Hasselbeck200120157926530.3290.387
123Matt Schaub200420153810280.2630.385
124Warren Moon1984200010134670.3370.383
125Blake Bortles201420174412320.2730.381
126Billy Joe Tolliver19891999348260.2350.378
127Jason Campbell200620135014360.280.378
128Drew Bledsoe199320069029610.3220.377
129Jake Plummer199720067523520.3070.374
130Troy Aikman198920005917420.2880.374
131Kerry Collins1995201110032680.320.371
132Jim Hart**19781983368280.2220.368
133Mike Pagel198219904611340.250.366
134Joe Ferguson**197819896418460.2810.365
135Vinny Testaverde1987200713845930.3260.365
136David Carr200220076719480.2840.364
137Daunte Culpepper200020095113380.2550.363
138Kyle Boller20032011212190.0950.361
138Jon Kitna199720108224580.2930.361
140Jeff Garcia199920086016440.2670.36
141Matthew Stafford200920176317460.270.359
142Joey Harrington200220075213390.250.359
143Chris Chandler198820049829690.2960.355
144Josh McCown200320175614420.250.354
145Jim Everett198619979026640.2890.354
146Blaine Gabbert20112017429330.2140.354
147Jeff Blake199420037119520.2680.351
148Steve Young19851999263230.1150.348
149Marc Bulger200220095513420.2360.347
150Jeff George199020017720570.260.342
151Archie Manning**197819845211410.2120.337
152Steve DeBerg197819989524700.2580.33
153Ryan Fitzpatrick200520177116540.2320.329
154Chris Miller198719996413510.2030.317

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