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Passing TD Concentration Index (By Receiver)

Fran Tarkenton threw 342 touchdowns in his career, but you may be surprised to learn that he didn’t throw more than 25 touchdowns to a single player! He played with John Gilliam from ’72 to ’75, and Gilliam caught 25 touchdowns during those four seasons before signing with Atlanta in 1976.  Tarkenton played with receiver Sammy White during the final three seasons of Tarkenton’s career, from ’76 to ’78, and the duo connected for 24 touchdowns.  And Tarkenton threw 23 touchdowns to Hall of Very Good running back Chuck Foreman.  While with the Giants, Tarkenton also threw 20 touchdowns to Homer Jones; those were the only four players to catch 20 touchdowns from Tarkenton.

A couple of months ago, I discussed the concentration index as a way to measure how concentrated certain statistics are.  We can do that same thing to measure quarterbacks and receivers to see which players had the most varied passing games.  This will be skewed, of course, in favor of quarterbacks who played for multiple teams, but that’s arguably a feature and not a bug.

Below are the results for the quarterbacks with at least 100 touchdown passes:

QBTDsRec 1Rec 2Rec 3Rec 4Rec 5Con Ind
Peyton Manning539M.Harr (112) (21%)Wayne (67) (12%)Clark (44) (8%)Thomas (36) (7%)Pollard (34) (6%)8.4%
Brett Favre508Freeman (57) (11%)Sharpe (41) (8%)Driver (36) (7%)Brooks (32) (6%)Franks (29) (6%)4.4%
Drew Brees465Colston (72) (15%)Graham (51) (11%)Moore (38) (8%)Meachem (25) (5%)Gates (23) (5%)5.9%
Tom Brady456Gronk (67) (15%)Moss (39) (9%)Welker (34) (7%)Edelman (24) (5%)Branch (24) (5%)5.2%
Dan Marino420Clayton (79) (19%)Duper (55) (13%)McDuffie (25) (6%)Moore (24) (6%)Jensen (19) (5%)7.2%
Fran Tarkenton342Gilliam (25) (7%)White (24) (7%)Foreman (23) (7%)Jones (20) (6%)Brown (18) (5%)4%
Eli Manning320Beckham (35) (11%)Burress (33) (10%)Nicks (26) (8%)Cruz (25) (8%)Randle (20) (6%)5.7%
Philip Rivers314Gates (84) (27%)Jackson (37) (12%)Floyd (34) (11%)Royal (16) (5%)Allen (15) (5%)11.1%
John Elway300Sharpe (41) (14%)Johnson (35) (12%)McCaff. (23) (8%)Jackson (22) (7%)Miller (21) (7%)6.3%
Ben Roethlisberger299Brown (49) (16%)Miller (41) (14%)Ward (41) (14%)Wallace (29) (10%)Holmes (17) (6%)8.6%
Aaron Rodgers297Nelson (59) (20%)Jones (41) (14%)Jennings (38) (13%)Cobb (35) (12%)Driver (22) (7%)10.6%
Warren Moon291Hill (43) (15%)Givins (40) (14%)Jeffires (30) (10%)Carter (26) (9%)Duncan (19) (7%)7.5%
Johnny Unitas290Berry (63) (22%)Moore (43) (15%)Orr (41) (14%)Mackey (32) (11%)Mutschel. (31) (11%)11.8%
Carson Palmer285Johnson (44) (15%)Housh. (35) (12%)Fitzgerald (25) (9%)Henry (19) (7%)Floyd (17) (6%)6.4%
Vinny Testaverde275Jackson (29) (11%)Carrier (25) (9%)Hill (20) (7%)Alexander (18) (7%)Chrebet (15) (5%)4.3%
Joe Montana273Rice (55) (20%)Clark (41) (15%)Solomon (29) (11%)Taylor (15) (5%)Craig (15) (5%)9.1%
Dave Krieg261Largent (46) (18%)Turner (34) (13%)Blades (16) (6%)Williams (12) (5%)Butler (11) (4%)6.5%
Sonny Jurgensen255Taylor (53) (21%)Smith (43) (17%)McDon. (30) (12%)Mitchell (29) (11%)Retzlaff (14) (5%)10.8%
Dan Fouts254Winslow (41) (16%)Jefferson (36) (14%)Joiner (34) (13%)Chandler (31) (12%)Sievers (15) (6%)8.9%
Drew Bledsoe251Coates (45) (18%)Glenn (31) (12%)Moulds (16) (6%)Brisby (14) (6%)Jefferson (13) (5%)6.8%
Tony Romo248Bryant (50) (20%)Witten (37) (15%)Owens (34) (14%)Austin (27) (11%)Crayton (19) (8%)11%
Boomer Esiason247Brown (39) (16%)Holman (30) (12%)Brooks (24) (10%)McGee (22) (9%)Collinsworth (17) (7%)7%
John Hadl244Alworth (56) (23%)Garrison (46) (19%)Frazier (19) (8%)MacKinnon (16) (7%)Jackson (14) (6%)10.9%
Y.A. Tittle244Wilson (41) (17%)Shofner (25) (10%)Soltau (17) (7%)Walton (15) (6%)Gifford (14) (6%)6.6%
Matt Ryan240White (52) (22%)Jones (40) (17%)Gonzalez (35) (15%)Snelling (9) (4%)Douglas (8) (3%)10.5%
Len Dawson239Taylor (46) (19%)Burford (43) (18%)Arbanas (33) (14%)Jackson (18) (8%)Haynes (11) (5%)10.4%
Jim Kelly237Reed (65) (27%)Metzelaars (22) (9%)Thomas (19) (8%)Lofton (19) (8%)Brooks (17) (7%)11.5%
George Blanda235Hennigan (42) (18%)Groman (25) (11%)Cannon (19) (8%)McLeod (17) (7%)Frazier (16) (7%)7.5%
Donovan McNabb234Westbr. (27) (12%)Owens (20) (9%)Lewis (18) (8%)Smith (15) (6%)Thrash (14) (6%)4.8%
Steve Young232Rice (85) (37%)Owens (24) (10%)Taylor (23) (10%)Jones (22) (9%)Stokes (13) (6%)17.1%
John Brodie214Washington (27) (13%)Parks (23) (11%)Casey (21) (10%)Crow (14) (7%)Stickles (14) (7%)6.3%
Terry Bradshaw212Swann (49) (23%)Stallworth (44) (21%)Smith (21) (10%)Cunningham (16) (8%)Shanklin (14) (7%)12.4%
Matt Hasselbeck212Jackson (33) (16%)Engram (17) (8%)Burleson (13) (6%)Stevens (13) (6%)Alexander (11) (5%)5.6%
Jim Hart209Gray (38) (18%)Smith (25) (12%)Tilley (18) (9%)Williams (15) (7%)Gilliam (10) (5%)7.4%
Kurt Warner208Fitzgerald (39) (19%)Boldin (27) (13%)Bruce (22) (11%)Holt (18) (9%)Faulk (18) (9%)8.9%
Jay Cutler208Marshall (40) (19%)Jeffery (20) (10%)Olsen (13) (6%)Forte (12) (6%)Bennett (12) (6%)7.5%
Kerry Collins208Toomer (28) (13%)Hilliard (23) (11%)Porter (13) (6%)Walls (12) (6%)Carrier (9) (4%)5.1%
Randall Cunningham207Carter (31) (15%)Quick (23) (11%)Williams (21) (10%)Barnett (19) (9%)Moss (18) (9%)7.4%
Jim Everett203Ellard (36) (18%)Anderson (20) (10%)Johnson (18) (9%)Haynes (13) (6%)Small (12) (6%)7.3%
Roman Gabriel201Snow (37) (18%)Carmichael (22) (11%)Truax (15) (7%)Casey (12) (6%)Tucker (11) (5%)7.1%
Phil Simms199Bavaro (26) (13%)Manuel (21) (11%)Johnson (20) (10%)Baker (16) (8%)Gray (16) (8%)6.5%
Ken Anderson197Curtis (51) (26%)Trumpy (18) (9%)Collinsworth (16) (8%)Ross (12) (6%)Harris (8) (4%)9.9%
Bobby Layne196Hart (23) (12%)Box (21) (11%)Dial (19) (10%)Dibble (16) (8%)Walker (14) (7%)6.4%
Joe Ferguson196Butler (25) (13%)Lewis (23) (12%)Chandler (20) (10%)Cribbs (14) (7%)Gant (12) (6%)6.3%
Norm Snead196Hawkins (26) (13%)Retzlaff (15) (8%)Mitchell (15) (8%)Ballman (13) (7%)Jackson (13) (7%)5.3%
Steve DeBerg196Paige (14) (7%)Solomon (13) (7%)Carter (12) (6%)Giles (10) (5%)House (9) (5%)3.2%
Ken Stabler194Branch (44) (23%)Casper (38) (20%)Biletnikoff (26) (13%)Chester (12) (6%)Siani (8) (4%)12%
Bob Griese192Moore (33) (17%)Warfield (29) (15%)Mandich (21) (11%)Twilley (17) (9%)Noonan (16) (8%)8.8%
Matthew Stafford187Johnson (56) (30%)Pettigrew (15) (8%)Tate (14) (7%)Riddick (12) (6%)Young (9) (5%)11.9%
Sammy Baugh187Taylor (22) (12%)Todd (16) (9%)Moore (13) (7%)Aguirre (9) (5%)Masterson (9) (5%)4.6%
Mark Brunell184Smith (44) (24%)McCardell (26) (14%)Cooley (11) (6%)Moss (11) (6%)Jones (11) (6%)10.1%
Craig Morton183Hayes (21) (11%)Odoms (19) (10%)Rentzel (18) (10%)Moses (16) (9%)Upchurch (13) (7%)6%
Steve Grogan182Morgan (39) (21%)Francis (22) (12%)Jackson (17) (9%)Fryar (14) (8%)Hasselbeck (12) (7%)9.1%
Joe Flacco182Smith (30) (16%)Mason (18) (10%)Smith (14) (8%)Boldin (14) (8%)Pitta (13) (7%)6.9%
Rich Gannon180Brown (30) (17%)Rice (16) (9%)Dudley (13) (7%)Carter (12) (7%)Rison (11) (6%)6.4%
Ron Jaworski179Carmich. (47) (26%)Quick (33) (18%)Krepfle (18) (10%)Smith (13) (7%)Montgom. (12) (7%)13.1%
Babe Parilli178Cappelletti (35) (20%)Garron (25) (14%)Colclough (19) (11%)Graham (16) (9%)Howton (11) (6%)9.2%
Otto Graham174Lavelli (57) (33%)Speedie (30) (17%)Jones (18) (10%)Renfro (11) (6%)Jones (9) (5%)16.2%
Steve McNair174Mason (32) (18%)Wycheck (21) (12%)Dyson (16) (9%)Bennett (11) (6%)Kinney (8) (5%)7.5%
Joe Namath173Maynard (42) (24%)Caster (27) (16%)Sauer (25) (14%)Barkum (11) (6%)Lammons (10) (6%)12.2%
Norm Van Brocklin173Hirsch (33) (19%)McDonald (29) (17%)Boyd (21) (12%)Fears (21) (12%)Walston (9) (5%)10.5%
Charlie Conerly173Rote (26) (15%)Gifford (24) (14%)Schnelker (21) (12%)Swiacki (16) (9%)Roberts (12) (7%)8.3%
Charley Johnson170Randle (33) (19%)Conrad (26) (15%)Moses (15) (9%)Odoms (10) (6%)Smith (10) (6%)8.7%
Chris Chandler170Mathis (24) (14%)Dwight (10) (6%)Sanders (9) (5%)Martin (8) (5%)Santiago (7) (4%)4.3%
Jon Kitna169Johnson (17) (10%)Warrick (14) (8%)Williams (13) (8%)Dawkins (12) (7%)Mayes (10) (6%)4.6%
Ryan Fitzpatrick166Johnson (23) (14%)Marshall (17) (10%)Decker (13) (8%)Chandler (12) (7%)Nelson (8) (5%)5.5%
Brad Johnson166Carter (20) (12%)McCardell (14) (8%)Connell (10) (6%)Reed (10) (6%)Westbrook (9) (5%)4.5%
Troy Aikman165Irvin (49) (30%)Novacek (20) (12%)Harper (16) (10%)Johnston (13) (8%)Smith (11) (7%)13.1%
Daryle Lamonica164Biletnikoff (41) (25%)Wells (33) (20%)Chester (17) (10%)Cannon (17) (10%)Miller (7) (4%)13.3%
Jim Plunkett164Christensen (20) (12%)Vataha (16) (10%)Branch (15) (9%)Washington (10) (6%)Rucker (10) (6%)5.5%
Trent Green162Gonzalez (34) (21%)Kennison (23) (14%)Hall (8) (5%)Morton (8) (5%)Holmes (7) (4%)8.3%
Jeff Garcia161Owens (50) (31%)Stokes (13) (8%)Rice (11) (7%)Streets (9) (6%)Bryant (6) (4%)12.1%
Jake Plummer161Smith (17) (11%)Boston (17) (11%)Sanders (16) (10%)Moore (15) (9%)Lelie (10) (6%)5.8%
Earl Morrall161Barr (20) (12%)Richardson (12) (7%)Cogdill (12) (7%)Jones (10) (6%)Orr (7) (4%)4.7%
Joe Theismann160Monk (23) (14%)Brown (19) (12%)Fugett (15) (9%)Thompson (13) (8%)Didier (12) (8%)7.2%
Tommy Kramer159Rashad (22) (14%)Carter (20) (13%)White (20) (13%)Senser (13) (8%)Brown (12) (8%)7.9%
Alex Smith157Davis (30) (19%)Kelce (13) (8%)Charles (13) (8%)Crabtree (11) (7%)Maclin (10) (6%)7%
Steve Bartkowski156Jenkins (32) (21%)Francis (23) (15%)Jackson (20) (13%)Miller (13) (8%)Johnson (10) (6%)10.5%
Danny White155Hill (31) (20%)Cosbie (25) (16%)Pearson (18) (12%)Johnson (14) (9%)Renfro (13) (8%)10.8%
Brian Sipe154Newsome (29) (19%)Rucker (26) (17%)Logan (21) (14%)Hill (14) (9%)Feacher (12) (8%)11%
Jeff George154Mathis (19) (12%)Jett (14) (9%)Carter (11) (7%)Hester (11) (7%)Emanuel (10) (6%)5.8%
Roger Staubach153Pearson (27) (18%)DuPree (27) (18%)Hill (15) (10%)Richards (13) (8%)Hayes (11) (7%)9.6%
Bart Starr152Dowler (28) (18%)McGee (25) (16%)Dale (19) (13%)Kramer (12) (8%)Hornung (11) (7%)10.1%
Billy Kilmer152Taylor (21) (14%)Abramowicz (18) (12%)Grant (15) (10%)Smith (13) (9%)Jefferson (12) (8%)7.1%
Frank Ryan149Collins (49) (33%)Warfield (25) (17%)Green (16) (11%)Brown (10) (7%)Kreitling (6) (4%)16%
Daunte Culpepper149Moss (53) (36%)Carter (15) (10%)Burleson (10) (7%)Robinson (9) (6%)Campbell (7) (5%)15.4%
Tobin Rote148Howton (26) (18%)Knafelc (14) (9%)Alworth (13) (9%)McGee (9) (6%)Mann (8) (5%)6.7%
Steve Beuerlein147Walls (23) (16%)Muham. (17) (12%)Jeffers (12) (8%)Proehl (10) (7%)Ismail (7) (5%)6.1%
Andy Dalton142Green (44) (31%)Gresham (20) (14%)Eifert (19) (13%)Jones (15) (11%)Sanu (11) (8%)15.7%
Lynn Dickey141Coffman (35) (25%)Lofton (32) (23%)Jefferson (11) (8%)Ellis (9) (6%)Ivery (6) (4%)13.1%
Sid Luckman139Kavanaugh (29) (21%)Keane (14) (10%)McLean (14) (10%)Wilson (13) (9%)Clarke (9) (6%)8.9%
Neil Lomax136Green (48) (35%)Smith (16) (12%)Tilley (16) (12%)Marsh (12) (9%)Mitchell (9) (7%)17.5%
Cam Newton136Olsen (30) (22%)Ginn (19) (14%)Smith (15) (11%)Benjamin (14) (10%)LaFell (12) (9%)11.1%
Don Meredith135Hayes (36) (27%)Clarke (26) (19%)Reeves (15) (11%)Howton (9) (7%)Rentzel (8) (6%)13.8%
Bobby Hebert135Martin (24) (18%)Rison (12) (9%)Hill (12) (9%)Hilliard (9) (7%)Mathis (7) (5%)7.3%
Jeff Blake134Pickens (47) (35%)Scott (22) (16%)McGee (12) (9%)Horn (7) (5%)Boldin (6) (4%)16.8%
Matt Schaub133Johnson (32) (24%)Daniels (22) (17%)Walter (18) (14%)Jones (11) (8%)Dreessen (9) (7%)12.4%
Michael Vick133Crumpler (24) (18%)Maclin (17) (13%)Jackson (13) (10%)Celek (10) (8%)Jenkins (10) (8%)8.4%
Andrew Luck132Hilton (28) (21%)Allen (19) (14%)Moncrief (14) (11%)Fleener (14) (11%)Wayne (9) (7%)10.4%
Jim Harbaugh129Turner (13) (10%)Anderson (12) (9%)Dilger (10) (8%)Davis (9) (7%)Harrison (8) (6%)5%
Ken O'Brien128Toon (29) (23%)Walker (24) (19%)Shuler (15) (12%)Sohn (10) (8%)Moore (9) (7%)11.9%
Russell Wilson127Baldwin (30) (24%)Tate (12) (9%)Kearse (11) (9%)Rice (9) (7%)Graham (8) (6%)9.8%
Jake Delhomme126Smith (41) (33%)Muham. (24) (19%)Proehl (7) (6%)Colbert (7) (6%)Mangum (6) (5%)15.9%
Archie Manning125Childs (20) (16%)Chandler (13) (10%)Harris (12) (10%)Abramowicz (10) (8%)Parks (8) (6%)6.9%
Richard Todd124Walker (33) (27%)Barkum (20) (16%)Jones (11) (9%)Harper (10) (8%)Shuler (7) (6%)12.3%
Bert Jones124Carr (24) (19%)Doughty (16) (13%)Mitchell (13) (10%)McCauley (12) (10%)Butler (10) (8%)9.8%
Billy Wade124Ditka (25) (20%)Morris (17) (14%)Shofner (15) (12%)Phillips (11) (9%)Coia (6) (5%)9.6%
Bernie Kosar124Slaughter (21) (17%)Brennan (13) (10%)Langhorne (11) (9%)Jackson (10) (8%)Hoard (9) (7%)7.6%
Aaron Brooks123Horn (39) (32%)Stallworth (22) (18%)Williams (12) (10%)Jackson (9) (7%)Pathon (8) (7%)15.7%
Chris Miller123Rison (25) (20%)Haynes (22) (18%)Bruce (12) (10%)Drayton (9) (7%)Dixon (9) (7%)10.3%
Marc Bulger122Holt (46) (38%)Bruce (22) (18%)Curtis (9) (7%)Avery (7) (6%)Jackson (6) (5%)19.3%
Milt Plum122Renfro (21) (17%)Mitchell (16) (13%)Barr (12) (10%)Cogdill (10) (8%)Gibbons (10) (8%)8.5%
Neil O'Donnell120Thigpen (13) (11%)Mills (12) (10%)Green (12) (10%)Stone (9) (8%)Scott (6) (5%)5.3%
Brian Griese119Smith (22) (18%)McCaffrey (14) (12%)Clark (9) (8%)Galloway (9) (8%)Carswell (8) (7%)7.4%
Mark Rypien115Clark (34) (30%)Monk (26) (23%)Sanders (17) (15%)Orr (7) (6%)Bruce (4) (3%)17%
Frankie Albert115Beals (41) (36%)Strzyk. (12) (10%)Soltau (7) (6%)Perry (6) (5%)Salata (6) (5%)15.6%
Jay Schroeder114Clark (15) (13%)Fernandez (14) (12%)Gault (11) (10%)Brown (11) (10%)Smith (10) (9%)7.8%
Jack Kemp114Dubenion (12) (11%)Norton (12) (11%)Bass (7) (6%)Lincoln (6) (5%)Anderson (5) (4%)4.6%
Gus Frerotte114Shepherd (11) (10%)Chambers (9) (8%)Ellard (9) (8%)McMichael (7) (6%)Jenkins (6) (5%)4.4%
Trent Dilfer113Moore (14) (12%)Anthony (12) (11%)Alstott (8) (7%)Jackson (6) (5%)Williams (5) (4%)5%
Jim Zorn111Largent (43) (39%)McCullum (20) (18%)Smith (9) (8%)Doornink (7) (6%)Testerman (5) (5%)20%
Ryan Tannehill106Wallace (15) (14%)Landry (11) (10%)Clay (11) (10%)Stills (9) (8%)Matthews (8) (8%)7.4%
Bill Kenney105Carson (24) (23%)Paige (23) (22%)Marshall (17) (16%)Scott (8) (8%)Hancock (4) (4%)14%
Eddie LeBaron104Clarke (21) (20%)Taylor (10) (10%)Podoley (9) (9%)Carson (8) (8%)Howton (6) (6%)7.9%
Dan Pastorini103Burrough (35) (34%)Johnson (9) (9%)Alston (9) (9%)Barber (7) (7%)Caster (6) (6%)14.8%
Ed Brown103Hill (23) (22%)Ballman (11) (11%)Dial (11) (11%)McColl (7) (7%)Galimore (6) (6%)9.5%
Matt Cassel103Bowe (25) (24%)Moss (11) (11%)Charles (6) (6%)Jennings (5) (5%)Chambers (5) (5%)8.9%
Chad Pennington102Coles (18) (18%)Moss (13) (13%)Chrebet (10) (10%)Baker (9) (9%)Cotchery (8) (8%)8.6%
Kyle Orton101Lloyd (11) (11%)Marshall (10) (10%)Woods (5) (5%)Moreno (5) (5%)Olsen (5) (5%)4.7%
Doug Williams100Giles (19) (19%)House (16) (16%)Sanders (9) (9%)Monk (8) (8%)Jones (8) (8%)9.7%
Jim McMahon100Gault (16) (16%)McKinnon (15) (15%)Mooreh. (11) (11%)Miller (7) (7%)Carter (6) (6%)8.2%

By this measure, Jim Zorn stands out as the quarterback with the least concentrated passing game.  Steve Largent caught 39% of his touchdowns, the most of any WR1 in this study.  And Sam McCullum caught another 18% of Zorn’s scoring throws, which is why Zorn’s production looks so concentrated here.

I initially ran these numbers to dive into Donovan McNabb’s numbers a bit more. A couple of weeks ago, Adam Harstad went on a McNabb-inspired rant about his poor teammates. And that was true. McNabb doesn’t rank as low as I would have suspected here, though, in part because of Westbrook and in part because McNabb didn’t throw that many touchdowns. Yeah, none of his receivers caught 30 touchdowns, but McNabb did throw “only” 234 touchdowns. Tarkenton, Testaverde, and Favre rank below McNabb, although McNabb had 92% of his touchdowns come with one team (Tarkenton had “only” 70% of his scoring passes come with the Vikings, while Testaverde didn’t have one team account for even 30% of his touchdowns; Favre had 87% of his touchdown passes come with the Packers). But Brady (and Collins, who also split his time among teams) is right with McNabb, too. This doesn’t mean McNabb isn’t underrated, just that his concentration index isn’t as severe as you might have thought.

On the other hand, there’s Young: not only was his production highly concentrated, but it was highlighted among the greatest receiver ever, another Hall of Fame caliber receiver, and a third darn good receiver.

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