At 538 on Friday, I looked at the trades in round 1 of the NFL Draft. Today, let’s look at the trades that happened on Day 2.
Jacksonville receives: second-round pick (No. 36 overall) (UCLA LB Myles Jack)
Baltimore receives: second-round pick (No. 38 overall) (Traded to Miami), fifth-round pick (No. 146 overall) (Grand Valley St. DE Matt Judon)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Baltimore received 121 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Baltimore received 102 cents on the dollar
Jack was an outstanding college player who many thought would go in the top five of the first round if he had a clean bill of health. Unfortunately, that’s not the case, and Jack’s injured right knee caused him to slide to the second day of the draft. It’s tempting to call this a steal for Jacksonville, but remember that many teams that could use a player like Jack — including Baltimore — felt he wasn’t worth the risk. The Jaguars paid a decent price to get him, but this trade will be a home run for the Jaguars if Jack stays healthy. As for Baltimore, the team traded down just two picks later, and did even better….
Miami receives: second-round pick (No. 38 overall) (Baylor CB Xavien Howard)
Baltimore receives: second-round pick (No. 42 overall) (Boise St. DE Kamalei Correa), fourth-round pick (No. 107 overall) (Cincinnati WR Chris Moore)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Baltimore received 137 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Baltimore received 108 cents on the dollar
The Ravens wound up dropping from 36 to 42 and collected a fourth and a fifth to drop six slots; that’s a great haul, as it landed the team three players rather than one. The Dolphins gave up a lot to move up four slots, which is emblematic of an organization that puts little emphasis on depth relative to star power.
Buffalo receives: second-round pick (No. 41 overall) (Alabama ILB Reggie Ragland)
Chicago receives: second-round pick (No. 49 overall) (Traded to Seattle), fourth-round pick (No. 117 overall) (Traded to Los Angeles), 2017 fourth-round pick
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Chicago received 167 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Chicago received 108 cents on the dollar
Buffalo paid an incredible amount to move up 8 slots; receiving two fourth rounds pick to move from the early to the middle part of the second round represents a huge windfall for the Bears (note for draft value chart purposes, I simply treated the 2017 fourth-round pick as equivalent to the 117th pick Buffalo already gave up). This was a no-brainer move for Chicago and helps recoup the fourth round pick the Bears lost in the trade up for Leonard Floyd.
For the Bills, the haul was roughly equivalent to the 19th pick in the Draft. One could make the claim that it was arguably worth it, given that Ragland was widely-viewed as a first round prospect. But teams are generally overconfident in their own scouting abilities: and while it’s tempting to trade up for a “falling prospect”, there’s no research to indicate that those players are undervalued as a whole. The Bills gave up three draft picks for an inside linebacker, leaving little margin for error on the team’s evaluation of Ragland.
Green Bay receives: second-round pick (No. 48) (Indiana OT Jason Spriggs)
Indianapolis receives: second-round pick (No. 57 overall) (Clemson FS T.J. Green), fourth-round pick (No. 125 overall) (Florida ILB Antonio Morrison), seventh-round pick (No. 248) (Iowa C Austin Blythe)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Indianapolis received 130 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Indianapolis received 90 cents on the dollar
Both the Colts and Packers needed help on the offensive line, but Indianapolis chose to trade down rather than take Spriggs, a local product who was a four-year starter in college. The charts diverge here, which indicates the Colts were simply looking to trade down and this was the best offer Indianapolis received. The Colts probably won this trade, but fans in Indiana won’t be happy if Spriggs turns into a long-term starter. The Packers are a unique team in that the draft is where Green Bay gets most of its players: that cuts both ways here. On one hand, landing a starter may require trading up because Green Bay has one of the better rosters in the league; on the other, depth is pretty important for the Packers, and trading that mid-round pick could come back to bite them.
Seattle receives: second-round pick (No. 49) (Alabama DT Jarran Reed)
Chicago receives: second-round pick (No. 56 overall) (Kansas State G Cody Whitehair), fourth-round pick (No. 124 overall) (Miami S Deon Bush)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Chicago received 132 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Chicago received 95 cents on the dollar
NFL teams — and the traditional chart — devalue fourth round picks. The difference between the 49th and 56th pick is rarely worth sacrificing a mid-round pick, and Chicago played the second round beautifully. By moving down from 41 to 56 (via trades with both Buffalo and Seattle), Chicago picked up three additional fourth round picks. That’s a great move for a rebuilding team.
But this is not necessarily a bad move for Seattle. Fourth round picks are more valuable to mediocre teams than Super Bowl contenders, since it will be difficult for them to get much playing time. And this was a good situation of need meeting fit: the Seahawks lost run-stuffing defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to San Diego this offseason, and Reed slides in as a natural replacement. He was widely given a first-round grade, and was the last of the 25 players invited to the Draft to be selected.
Houston receives: second-round pick (No. 50) (Notre Dame G/C Nick Martin)
Atlanta receives: second-round pick (No. 52 overall) (LSU OLB Deion Jones), sixth-round pick (No. 195 overall) (San Jose St. G Wez Schweitzer)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Atlanta received 107 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Atlanta received 98 cents on the dollar
Atlanta was down a fifth-round pick as sanctions for using artificial crowd noise during home games, so picking up a free late-round pick to move down two spots makes sense. Houston leapfrogged the Jets — who seemed unlikely to select Martin — but paid a small price to lock in their player. But let’s get to the most fun trade of the night!
Tampa Bay receives: second-round pick (No. 59) (Florida State K Robert Aguayo)
Kansas City receives: third-round pick (No. 74 overall) (Notre Dame CB KeiVarae Russell), fourth-round pick (No. 106 overall) (Minnesota CB Eric Murray)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Kansas City received 141 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Kansas City received 97 cents on the dollar
Kansas City entered the NFL Draft with the traditional seven picks, but down a third rounder (for tampering with Jeremy Maclin) and up a fifth rounder (via trade with Seattle last September for Kelcie McCray). But thanks to intelligent trade downs with San Francisco (at the end of the first round) and here with Tampa Bay, the Chiefs had five picks in the first four rounds and seven selections in the first five! On this trade, the Chiefs were able to pick up two cornerbacks (and added a third in the sixth round), helping the team reload in the secondary.
For Tampa Bay, the trade looks much worse. The Bucs gave up value equal, on the Football Perspective chart, to the 34th overall selection. And used it on a placekicker! According to the Simple Rating System, Tampa Bay was the worst team in the NFC last season. Yes, the Bucs struggled in the kicking game, but investing a premium pick on a kicker is a luxury that only makes sense for teams that are otherwise Super Bowl contenders. Tampa Bay received a “free” fourth rounder from Chicago by trading down in the first round, but gave up that pick here. Even Bucs fans don’t like this move.
New Orleans receives: second-round pick (No. 61) (Ohio State FS Vonn Bell)
New England receives: third-round pick (No. 78 overall) (N.C. State G Joe Thuney), fourth-round pick (No. 112 overall) (Georgia WR Malcolm Mitchell)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: New England received 137 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: New England received 92 cents on the dollar
This trade comes off as very similar to the last one: a mid-third and mid-fourth for a pick at the tail end of the second round. It’s telling that the Chiefs and Patriots are the trading down teams in these situations: New England has mastered the art of trading down, while Kansas City GM John Dorsey spent most of his career in Green Bay. These are the trades intelligent teams make to acquire more tickets in the draft lottery; meanwhile, overconfident teams like the Saints have a history of trading up — and then regretting it. New Orleans traded a third round pick (that turned into John Brown) to trade up with the Cardinals in 2014, traded two fourth round picks in ’13 to acquire defensive tackle John Jenkins in 2013, and used the team’s 2012 first round pick in 2011 to trade up to draft Mark Ingram. New Orleans is a talent-depleted team that has been fortunate to have Drew Brees to cover up the team’s sins.
Carolina receives: third-round pick (No. 77) (West Virginia CB Daryl Worley), fifth-round pick (No. 141) (Oklahoma CB Zack Sanchez)
Cleveland receives: third-round pick (No. 93) (USC QB Cody Kessler), fourth-round pick (No. 129) (TCU FS Derrick Kindred), fifth-round pick (No. 168) (Baylor G Spencer Drango)
Football Perspective Draft Value Chart: Cleveland received 114 cents on the dollar
Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart: Cleveland received 81 cents on the dollar
This trade is the clearest indication yet that the new Browns organization is using something resembling the Football Perspective chart rather than the old one. The Browns traded down 16 picks in exchange for moving up 12 picks later in the draft; the premium Cleveland received to make that move was a fifth round draft pick. That is a small price, but the Browns may not have had a player the team loved at 77, and Cleveland can use all the draft picks it can get as it attempts to rebuild.
Carolina, of course, is in a very different situation. The defending NFC Champions have less use for a fifth round pick, and cornerback became a position of need with the surprising release of Josh Norman. The fact that Carolina was able to move up 16 slots for such a low cost makes this a great move. The only reason this trade wasn’t fantastic for Carolina is because of the pick itself: Worley was generally viewed as a late-round pick, who may well have been around at 93 — or later.
Miami receives: third-round pick (No. 86) (Rutgers WR Leonte Carroo)
Minnesota receives: sixth-round pick (No. 186) (Texas Tech WR Jakeem Grant), 2017 third-round pick, 2017 fourth-round pick (conditional)
Wow! The Dolphins gave up next year’s third round pick for a third rounder this year, and paid a sixth this year and a fourth next year in the process. The fourth-round pick is conditional — assuming Miami receives a compensatory selection, that pick can be used (which takes place at the end of the round) instead of Miami’s actual fourth round pick (which could, of course, be anywhere during the round based on Miami’s record in 2016).
Miami traded for a late-third round pick, so even if we assume Miami’s 2017 third round pick would also be at 86, and it’s a conditional pick (say, 135 overall), the Vikings would receive a whopping 176 cents on the dollar in this deal. Minnesota receives a free fourth and a free sixth just to be patient; that’s something good organizations frequently do. The Dolphins, and Executive Vice President of Football Operations Mike Tannenbaum, have showed little inclination to be patient, and paid a significant haul for a late third round pick, especially when used on a wide receiver, one of the team’s deepest positions.