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Matt Forte, Bilal Powell, and Special Teams Yards

Matt Forte retired yesterday, but we will leave those thoughts for another post. Today, I want to look at what I’ve referred to before as special teams yards. What are those?

All yards gained on special teams are done outside of the context of the series (down and distance) environment that defines most games. A kickoff return from to the 30 or to the 40 represents a difference of 10 yards, but those 10 yards are not as valuable as the difference between a gain of 5 yards and 15 yards on 3rd-and-10. The former are, quite literally, special teams yards. They don’t provide any value in gaining any additional first downs, or keeping a drive alive.

Special teams yards, while obviously valuable, are — just as obviously — the least valuable yards possible.

On a 3rd-and-10, a 15-yard pass provides a significant amount of value by providing a first down. But let’s get a bit more precise: the first 10 of those yards were really valuable. The last 5? Well, those were special teams yards. The difference between gaining 10 yards and gaining 15 yards on 3rd-and-10 isn’t that significant: well, it’s about as significant as returning a kickoff for 30 yards or 35 yards. Those last 5 yards don’t help a team move the chains.

So all yards gained by a player after already picking up a first down are what I’m referring to as special teams yards. And you know what other yards are less meaningful? All yards on third down or fourth down (special teams yards can come on any down) that don’t pick up a first down. A 9-yard run on 3rd-and-15 are just like special teams yards, too.

So let’s call all yards gained after gaining a first down “Post-1D Yards” and all yards on 3rd or 4th down that don’t go for a first down “3D Fail Yards.” To be clear, I’m not saying that Post-1D Yards or 3D Fail Yards are meaningless, but they are akin to special teams yards because they don’t help move the chains. They are yards gained outside of the context of the goal of acquiring a new set of downs.

Now, let’s talk about Forte, who rushed 103 times for 381 yards last year, which equates to 3.70 YPC. His backfield teammate, Bilal Powell, rushed 139 times for 754 yards, a 4.34 YPC average. But Forte had almost no “special teams” yards: he had just 35 yards picked up after gaining a first down, and only 4 yards gained on failed third/fourth down rushes. If you eliminate those, his “net” yards per carry was 3.32.

As for Powell? He had runs of 41, 51, 57, and 75 yards, along with five other runs of at least 20 yards. Those contributed to the 267 Post-1D Yards that Powell had, which comprised a whopping 40% of his total rushing yards. That was the third highest percentage in the NFL (minimum 100 carries) behind only Kenyan Drake (41%) and Cam Newton (43%). Meanwhile, Forte had just 9% of his rushing yards come as Post-1D Yards, the lowest in the league (Jamaal Williams was second at 12%, followed by Doug Martin at 15%). And in addition, Powell had 4% of his yards come as 3D Fail Yards, compared to just 1% for Forte.

Add it up, and Powell’s “net” yards per carry after removing “special teams” yards was just 2.44, quite a bit behind Forte. The table below shows the full data set for all rushers with 100 carries in 2017:

RkPlayerTeamRshRshYdYPCYPC RkPost-1D YdsP1D Y/CP1DY / RYd3D Fail Yd3DF Y/CNet YPCDiff
1Alvin KamaraNOR1207286.0712572.1435.3%50.043.883.48
2Alfred MorrisDAL1165494.7371311.1323.9%10.013.593.19
3Dion LewisNWE1808964.9832521.4028.1%40.023.563.15
4Wayne GallmanNYG1114764.2917820.7417.2%40.043.513.11
5Matt BreidaSFO1054654.4310910.8719.6%140.133.433.03
6Matt ForteNYJ1033813.7036350.349.2%40.043.322.92
7Kareem HuntKAN27213284.8854421.6333.3%40.013.242.84
8Giovani BernardCIN1064594.3315950.9020.7%270.253.182.78
9Ezekiel ElliottDAL2429834.06222140.8821.8%80.033.142.74
10Le'Veon bellPIT32112904.02252720.8521.1%110.033.142.74
11Todd GurleyRAM27913034.6783921.4130.1%360.133.142.74
12Jamaal WilliamsGNB1535563.6339680.4412.2%120.083.112.71
13Christian McCaffreyCAR1174363.7334700.6016.1%50.043.092.68
14Alex CollinsRAV2129734.5993091.4631.8%100.053.082.68
15Lamar MillerHTX2398893.72351560.6517.5%40.023.052.65
16Marshawn LynchRAI2078904.30162561.2428.8%60.033.032.63
17C.J. AndersonDEN24510074.11212521.0325%130.053.032.63
18Peyton BarberTAM1084233.9227960.8922.7%00.003.032.63
19Devonta FreemanATL1968634.40122521.2929.2%180.093.032.62
20Mark IngramNOR23011244.8944041.7635.9%250.113.022.62
21Frank GoreCLT2499153.67381560.6317%70.033.022.62
22LeGarrette BlountPHI1737654.42112321.3430.3%130.083.012.60
23Mike GillisleeNWE1043833.6837690.6618%60.062.962.56
24Orleans DarkwaNYG1717514.39132441.4332.5%10.012.962.56
25Isaiah CrowellCLE2068534.14202361.1527.7%80.042.962.56
26Kerwynn WilliamsCRD1204263.5541720.6016.9%00.002.952.55
27Cam NewtonCAR1397545.4223222.3242.7%310.222.882.48
28Kenyan DrakeMIA1336484.8762672.0141.2%50.042.832.43
29Jay Ajayi2TM2088724.19192671.2830.6%170.082.832.43
30Leonard FournetteJAX26810413.88312851.0627.4%100.042.782.38
31Samaje PerineWAS1756043.45431140.6518.9%30.022.782.38
32Latavius MurrayMIN2168423.90282441.1329%50.022.752.34
33Joe MixonCIN1776243.53421310.7421%80.052.742.34
34Melvin GordonSDG28411053.89293121.1028.2%160.062.742.33
35Jordan HowardCHI27611204.06233541.2831.6%110.042.742.33
36Adrian Peterson2TM1565293.39451050.6719.8%00.002.722.32
37Carlos HydeSFO2399293.89302541.0627.3%280.122.712.31
38Javorius AllenRAV1545923.84321350.8822.8%410.272.702.30
39DeMarco MurrayOTI1846593.58401560.8523.7%90.052.682.28
40Derrick HenryOTI1767444.23182691.5336.2%30.022.682.28
41Jerick McKinnonMIN1515703.77331330.8823.3%370.252.652.25
42Tevin ColemanATL1566304.04242081.3333%130.082.622.22
43Jonathan StewartCAR1986803.43441620.8223.8%70.042.582.18
44Chris IvoryJAX1143823.3546730.6419.1%180.162.552.15
45LeSean McCoyBUF28711393.97263981.3934.9%210.072.512.11
46Doug MartinTAM1384062.9448600.4314.8%00.002.512.11
47Bilal PowellNYJ1787724.34143071.7239.8%310.172.442.04
48Ameer AbdullahDET1655523.35471580.9628.6%50.032.361.96

What stands out to you?

Two notes. The correlation coefficient between Net YPC and actual YPC is 0.61, which is pretty low considering about one-third of actual YPC comes from the elements we leave out of Net YPC (i.e., Post-1D Yds and 3D Fail Yards make up about 33% of total rushing yards). The correlation coefficient between yards per carry and Post-1st Down Yards is 0.66, which is a good reason why, in my opinion, yards per carry isn’t all that helpful in understanding team success.

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