Luke Falk, the Patriots, and Scott Zolak

by Chase Stuart on September 20, 2019

Luke Falk, who came on in relief for the Jets in week 2.

On Sunday, the Jets will be a sacrificial lamb for the enjoyment of 70,000 fans in Foxboro. New York is a 23-point underdog to the Patriots, making this one of the largest point spreads in NFL history. The Jets have lost 12 straight regular season games in Gilette Stadium to the Tom Brady Patriots, with the last victory coming back in 2006 (during this span, the Jets beat New England once without Brady, in ’08, and also in the 2010 playoffs).

Remarkably, New York was an underdog of over 2 TDs in each of the team’s last three games in New England, and a 3-TD underdog against the ’07 Patriots. And yet it is Sunday’s matchup that brings the largest points spread in Jets history. The table below shows the points spread in each Jets game in Foxboro during Brady’s time with the team prior to 2019 (as for 2001, that is not included; the Jets game in Foxboro that year was the origin story for Brady).


									Vegas	Vegas	Vegas	Vegas
Tm	Year	Date		Opp	Week	G#	Day	Result	Spread	vs. Line	Over/Under	OU Result
NYJ	2018	2018-12-30	@	NWE	17	16	Sun	L 3-38	14.5	not covered	46.5	under
NYJ	2017	2017-12-31	@	NWE	17	16	Sun	L 6-26	17.0	not covered	43.5	under
NYJ	2016	2016-12-24	@	NWE	16	15	Sat	L 3-41	17.0	not covered	45.0	under
NYJ	2015	2015-10-25	@	NWE	7	6	Sun	L 23-30	7.5	covered	47.5	over
NYJ	2014	2014-10-16	@	NWE	7	7	Thu	L 25-27	9.5	covered	44.5	over
NYJ	2013	2013-09-12	@	NWE	2	2	Thu	L 10-13	11.5	covered	43.0	under
NYJ	2012	2012-10-21	@	NWE	7	7	Sun	L 26-29	10.5	covered	47.0	over
NYJ	2011	2011-10-09	@	NWE	5	5	Sun	L 21-30	7.5	not covered	50.0	over
NYJ	2010	2011-01-16	@	NWE	19	18	Sun	W 28-21	9.5	covered	45.0	over
NYJ	2010	2010-12-06	@	NWE	13	12	Mon	L 3-45	4.0	not covered	44.5	over
NYJ	2009	2009-11-22	@	NWE	11	10	Sun	L 14-31	11.0	not covered	45.0	push
NYJ	2007	2007-12-16	@	NWE	15	14	Sun	L 10-20	20.5	covered	41.0	under
NYJ	2006	2007-01-07	@	NWE	18	17	Sun	L 16-37	9.0	not covered	38.5	over
NYJ	2006	2006-11-12	@	NWE	10	9	Sun	W 17-14	10.5	covered	38.0	under
NYJ	2005	2005-12-04	@	NWE	13	12	Sun	L 3-16	7.5	not covered	42.5	under
NYJ	2004	2004-10-24	@	NWE	7	6	Sun	L 7-13	6.0	push	43.5	under
NYJ	2003	2003-09-21	@	NWE	3	3	Sun	L 16-23	6.0	not covered	38.0	over
NYJ	2002	2002-12-22	@	NWE	16	15	Sun	W 30-17	3.5	covered	41.0	over

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

But the most shocking thing to me isn’t that the Jets are heavy underdogs, but that the over/under for the game is just 43 points! This means that Vegas is setting the Over/Under on the Jets points total at 10 points, and the Patriots total at 33 points. I mean, I know the Jets are down to third-string quarterback Luke Falk, but a 10-point total for one team is really, really low.

Since 1978, there have only been 45 times where a team, based on the Vegas point spread and over/under, was projected to score under 11 points. The Jets against the Patriots will be the 46th, but New England has not always been on the positive side of things. Before there were Patriots fans, the team once traveled to Arrowhead Stadium in 1992 to face the mighty Chiefs. Kansas City, with Neil Smith, Derrick Thomas, and Dale Carter, had a pretty good defense in those days, but the real issue was the Patriots offense. Quarterbacked by Scott Zolak, the 2-11 Patriots had been shut out in back to back games entering the trip to Kansas City and had gained a total of 199 yards of offense.

So on December 13th, 1992, on a cold and rainy day, the Chiefs were favored to win by 16.5 points, and the over/under was 33 points. That means New England was expected to score only 8.25 points, with Kansas City projected to score 24.75 points. Kansas City ultimately won, 27-20, with the Patriots scoring touchdowns once on defense and once after a turnover gaave the team the ball at the 8-yard line.

That 8.25 mark is the lowest I have found in any game in NFL history. The table below shows the other lowest projected scoring games since 1978:

Team	Year	Week	Opp	QB	Line	O/U	Boxscore	Expected Pts
NWE	1992	15	KAN	Scott Zolak	16.5	33	L 27-20	8.25
HOU	2002	4	PHI	David Carr	19	36	L 35-17	8.50
SEA	1992	14	PIT	Stan Gelbaugh	13.5	31	L 20-14	8.75
SEA	1992	8	NYG	Stan Gelbaugh	14.5	32	L 23-10	8.75
SEA	1992	11	RAI	Stan Gelbaugh	14	32	L 20-3	9.00
TAM	1986	14	CHI	Steve Young	17	35	L 48-14	9.00
IND	1991	11	NYJ	Jeff George	13.5	32	W 28-27	9.25
JAX	2013	3	SEA	Chad Henne	20	39	L 45-17	9.50
CLE	2000	13	BAL	Doug Pederson	15	34	L 44-7	9.50
PHI	1998	13	GNB	Koy Detmer	18	37	L 24-16	9.50
NYJ	1992	14	BUF	Browning Nagle	17	36	W 24-17	9.50
SEA	1992	6	DAL	Dan McGwire	18	37	L 27-0	9.50
TAM	1991	8	NOR	Chris Chandler	13	32	L 23-7	9.50
CLE	2000	12	TEN	Doug Pederson	16	35.5	L 24-10	9.75
DET	2005	17	PIT	Joey Harrington	15.5	35.5	L 35-21	10.00
CLE	1999	10	PIT	Tim Couch	14.5	34.5	W 16-15	10.00
CLE	1999	6	JAX	Tim Couch	17.5	37.5	L 24-7	10.00
CIN	1993	14	SFO	David Klingler	24	44	L 21-8	10.00
SEA	1992	12	KAN	Kelly Stouffer	12	32	L 24-14	10.00
PHO	1991	12	SFO	Stan Gelbaugh	12	32	L 14-10	10.00
NYJ	2007	15	NWE	Kellen Clemens	20.5	41	L 20-10	10.25
HOU	2003	1	MIA	David Carr	14	34.5	W 21-20	10.25
HOU	2002	2	SDG	David Carr	13.5	34	L 24-3	10.25
SEA	1992	10	WAS	Stan Gelbaugh	12.5	33	L 16-3	10.25
OAK	2006	6	DEN	Andrew Walter	16	37	L 13-3	10.50
OAK	2006	2	BAL	Aaron Brooks	13	34	L 28-6	10.50
SFO	2005	10	CHI	Cody Pickett	12	33	L 17-9	10.50
DAL	2001	3	PHI	Anthony Wright	13.5	34.5	L 40-18	10.50
CLE	2000	16	TEN	Doug Pederson	16	37	L 24-0	10.50
WAS	1993	17	DAL	Mark Rypien	17	38	L 38-3	10.50
PHI	1993	14	DAL	Bubby Brister	16	37	L 23-17	10.50
CIN	1993	6	KAN	David Klingler	14	35	L 17-15	10.50
TAM	1992	16	SFO	Vinny Testaverde	20	41	L 21-14	10.50
IND	1992	12	PIT	Jack Trudeau	12	33	L 30-14	10.50
NWE	1992	9	BUF	Tom Hodson	19	40	L 16-7	10.50
TAM	1991	16	CHI	Jeff Carlson	13	34	L 27-0	10.50
IND	1991	7	BUF	Jeff George	20	41	L 42-6	10.50
GNB	1988	13	CHI	Don Majkowski	13	34	L 16-0	10.50
CLE	2008	17	PIT	Bruce Gradkowski	11.5	33	L 31-0	10.75
TAM	2006	15	CHI	Bruce Gradkowski	13.5	35	L 34-31	10.75
CLE	2000	15	PHI	Doug Pederson	14	35.5	L 35-24	10.75
RAI	1992	17	WAS	Jay Schroeder	13.5	35	W 21-20	10.75
NWE	1992	6	SFO	Hugh Millen	17.5	39	L 24-12	10.75
IND	1991	8	NYJ	Jeff George	12.5	34	L 17-6	10.75
PHO	1989	16	PHI	Gary Hogeboom	13.5	35	L 31-14	10.75

Jets fans, take some solace in this fact: these teams were expected to score 10.0 points, on average. In reality, these 45 teams actually scored an average of 11.6 points.

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