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Knockouts in the NFL

I'm gonna Gronk you out

I'm gonna Gronk you out.

Three years ago, I posted a list of Approximate Times of Knockout in the NFL: I defined the time of a knockout as how much time was remaining in every game when the winning team first scored more points than the losing team ultimately scored by the end of the game.

I want to revisit the issue but use a slightly different formula. Since we have robust play-by-play data going back to 2000, I thought we could get more precise. In this post, I am defining the time of knockout as the last time the eventual losing team had the ball within one score of the eventual winning team. This seems to fit the definition of knockout a little bit better, I think, although it’s certainly not perfect. I went through every game of the 2012 season and recorded the time of knockout for the victor in each game. If you lost a game and last had the ball trailing within one score with 5 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, that goes down as a knockout with 20 minutes remaining. For the winning team, they get +20, while the loser gets -20. If you do that for every game, you can get season ratings.

Let’s take a look at the Patriots. They went 12-4 last year, and had an average net time of knockout of 19.4 minutes. The “net” means this includes losses in there as well. In their 12 wins, the Pats had an average time of knockout of 26.3 minutes, while in their four losses, they were knocked out with just over one minute remaining, on average. The Patriots had the highest average net time of knockout, but you might be surprised to see who had the highest average time of knockout in victories:

Rk
Year
Team
W
L
T
Avg Net ToKO
ToKO W
ToKO L
12012NWE124019.426.3-1.3
22012SEA115013.419.8-0.7
32012DEN133013.323.5-30.6
42012ATL133012.419.3-17.5
52012CIN106011.923.4-7.3
62012CHI106011.429.3-18.5
72012GNB115011.221-10.4
82012SDG7909.435.7-11.1
92012SFO11416.721.3-31.7
102012WAS10605.914.9-9
112012HOU12405.218.9-35.8
122012MIN10604.921.6-22.8
132012NYG9704.727.3-24.4
142012PIT8803.912.9-5
152012NOR7901.720.1-12.6
162012CAR7901.218.7-12.4
172012BAL1060111.9-17.3
182012TAM790-1.412.4-12.2
192012MIA790-1.618.4-17.1
202012IND1150-3.26.7-24.9
212012DAL880-4.73.3-12.6
222012STL781-4.79.6-17.8
232012NYJ6100-4.819.9-19.7
242012BUF6100-5.917.6-20
252012DET4120-6.410.3-12
262012CLE5110-6.910.4-14.7
272012ARI5110-1216.5-24.9
282012TEN6100-14.413.3-31
292012OAK4120-16.215.6-26.8
302012PHI4120-16.81.2-22.7
312012JAX2140-17.20-19.7
322012KAN2140-21.70-24.8

That’s right, the 7-9 Chargers were downright dominant in their wins. In three different games — against the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs — San Diego recorded a knockout within the game’s first eight minutes. This definition of knockout can be a double-edged sword: take a look at the week 17 game against Oakland. On the surface, it was a close game, as the Chargers won 24-21. But San Diego took a 10-0 lead early, and the Raiders cut it to a one-score game only twice. The first time, the Chargers immediately responded with a touchdown, and the second time, San Diego ran out the clock to end the game. In general, I think looking at points differential underestimates how dominant of a win it was for San Diego, although calling it a 55-minute knockout probably goes too far the other way.

The table below shows every regular season game for 2012. The boxscore cell is linked to the boxscore at Pro-Football-Reference for each game, and the far right column shows the time of knockout.

Year
Wk
Tm
Opp
Boxscore
pf
pa
Spread
H/R
W/L/T
time
20122atldenBoxscore2721-3HWin56.8
201210cinnygBoxscore31134.5HWin56.2
201216seasfoBoxscore4213-2HWin54.7
201217sdgraiBoxscore2421-8HWin54.5
201217nygphiBoxscore427-6.5HWin54.1
20124sdgkanBoxscore3720-2.5RWin53.7
20123nygcarBoxscore3673RWin53.5
201211sfochiBoxscore327-5HWin53.5
201215seabufBoxscore5017-5RWin53.5
201214seacrdBoxscore580-10HWin53.3
20122sdgotiBoxscore3810-6HWin53
201212cinraiBoxscore3410-8HWin52.5
201215atlnygBoxscore3400HWin52.4
201210ravraiBoxscore5520-7.5HWin52.2
20123crdphiBoxscore2763HWin51.6
201215carsdgBoxscore3173RWin51.5
20128pitwasBoxscore2712-4.5HWin50.8
201214nwehtxBoxscore4214-5.5HWin50.5
201216gnbotiBoxscore557-11HWin50.4
201214caratlBoxscore30203.5HWin50.2
201210otimiaBoxscore3737RWin50
20128atlphiBoxscore30173RWin49.8
201216dencleBoxscore3412-11HWin49.6
201211norraiBoxscore3817-6.5RWin49.1
201215nortamBoxscore410-3.5HWin49.1
20127chidetBoxscore137-6.5HWin49
20128mianyjBoxscore3091RWin49
20129chiotiBoxscore5120-5RWin48.8
201210cltjaxBoxscore2710-3.5RWin48.2
201217nwemiaBoxscore280-10HWin47.9
20122htxjaxBoxscore277-7RWin47.9
20126gnbhtxBoxscore42244RWin47.8
201212nyggnbBoxscore3810-2.5HWin47.4
20121nyjbufBoxscore4828-3HWin47.4
201213htxotiBoxscore2410-7RWin47.1
201215denravBoxscore3417-3RWin46.1
201216chicrdBoxscore2813-7RWin45.6
20122bufkanBoxscore3517-3HWin45.4
20127htxravBoxscore4313-6.5HWin44.9
201211wasphiBoxscore316-3.5HWin44.3
201210dencarBoxscore3614-4RWin43.6
20126nyjcltBoxscore359-3HWin42.9
20123minsfoBoxscore24137HWin42.2
201216ravnygBoxscore33142.5HWin42.2
20129norphiBoxscore2813-3HWin42.1
201212chiminBoxscore2810-6.5HWin42
20125minotiBoxscore307-6HWin41.4
20129detjaxBoxscore3114-6RWin41.3
20121nweotiBoxscore3413-6.5RWin41.1
201215minramBoxscore36222.5RWin40.9
201212wasdalBoxscore38313.5RWin40.6
20123atlsdgBoxscore2733RWin40.5
201211cinkanBoxscore286-3RWin40.1
201212nwenyjBoxscore4919-7RWin39.9
20128nweramBoxscore457-7RWin39.9
20121chicltBoxscore4121-10HWin39.7
20128sfocrdBoxscore243-7RWin39.6
201217denkanBoxscore383-17HWin39.5
20122gnbchiBoxscore2310-5.5HWin37.9
20128tamminBoxscore36175.5RWin37.1
20129gnbcrdBoxscore3117-10.5HWin36.6
201214sdgpitBoxscore34247.5RWin35.3
20125nwedenBoxscore3121-6HWin35.1
20128dennorBoxscore3414-6.5HWin34.4
20124cinjaxBoxscore27101.5RWin33.3
201216miabufBoxscore2410-5HWin33
20124chidalBoxscore34183RWin32.6
201216minhtxBoxscore2367.5RWin31.7
20121htxmiaBoxscore3010-13.5HWin31.6
20124sfonyjBoxscore340-4RWin31.2
201215raikanBoxscore150-4.5HWin30.9
20126tamkanBoxscore3810-5HWin30.9
20127gnbramBoxscore3020-5RWin30.7
20126wasminBoxscore38262HWin30.7
201215crddetBoxscore38106.5HWin30.5
20125sfobufBoxscore453-10HWin30.5
20125nygcleBoxscore4127-8HWin30.3
20122cincleBoxscore3427-7HWin30
20122sfodetBoxscore2719-7HWin30
20126nygsfoBoxscore2637RWin30
201211nwecltBoxscore5924-10HWin30
201213bufjaxBoxscore3418-6HWin30
201214clekanBoxscore307-7HWin30
201216ramtamBoxscore28133RWin30
20128raikanBoxscore26161RWin29.9
201214nygnorBoxscore5227-4.5HWin29.7
20127mincrdBoxscore2114-6.5HWin29.1
20124denraiBoxscore376-6.5HWin29
201217otijaxBoxscore3820-5.5HWin27.9
201214denraiBoxscore2613-10.5RWin27.6
201215wascleBoxscore38214RWin26.4
20122pitnyjBoxscore2710-4.5HWin26
20122seadalBoxscore2773HWin24.7
20124htxotiBoxscore3814-13.5HWin24.4
20121atlkanBoxscore4024-2.5RWin24.1
201217sfocrdBoxscore2713-16.5HWin23.8
201215miajaxBoxscore243-7.5HWin23.5
201213dentamBoxscore3123-7.5HWin23
201211nyjramBoxscore27133.5RWin21.2
20122miaraiBoxscore35132HWin20.2
20125chijaxBoxscore413-6.5RWin20.1
20121sdgraiBoxscore22141RWin19.3
201217carnorBoxscore44384RWin18.8
201214minchiBoxscore21141.5HWin18.5
201216sdgnyjBoxscore27173RWin18.3
20129htxbufBoxscore219-11.5HWin17.9
201213nwemiaBoxscore2316-9RWin17.9
201212ramcrdBoxscore31171RWin17.5
20125ramcrdBoxscore1731.5HWin17.3
201212sfonorBoxscore3121-1.5RWin17.3
201210seanyjBoxscore287-5.5HWin16.9
20129sdgkanBoxscore3113-7HWin15.9
201215cinphiBoxscore3413-5RWin15.4
201213gnbminBoxscore2314-7.5HWin15
20121ravcinBoxscore4413-7HWin14.8
201217bufnyjBoxscore289-3.5HWin14.8
20123bufcleBoxscore2414-3RWin14.6
20124nwebufBoxscore5228-4.5RWin13.4
201216atldetBoxscore3118-4RWin13.4
201217clthtxBoxscore28166HWin13.2
20121dalnygBoxscore24174RWin13.1
201215htxcltBoxscore2917-10.5HWin11.9
20129seaminBoxscore3020-4HWin11.8
20126clecinBoxscore34242HWin11.2
20121tamcarBoxscore16103HWin11.2
201213atlnorBoxscore2313-3.5HWin10.1
201213cleraiBoxscore2017-2.5RWin9.5
201210mindetBoxscore34243HWin9.2
20123chiramBoxscore236-7HWin9.1
20129dencinBoxscore3123-5.5RWin8.6
201213nyjcrdBoxscore76-6HWin7.9
201214gnbdetBoxscore2720-6.5HWin7.2
20125pitphiBoxscore1614-4HWin6.6
201217pitcleBoxscore2410-9.5HWin6.5
201213pitravBoxscore23207.5RWin6.2
201217cinravBoxscore2317-3HWin6.1
201216carraiBoxscore176-9.5HWin5.3
20123daltamBoxscore1610-7HWin4.7
20125ravkanBoxscore96-6.5RWin4.5
201212carphiBoxscore3022-3RWin4.5
201214sfomiaBoxscore2713-10.5HWin4.2
20127pitcinBoxscore24171RWin4
201213wasnygBoxscore17163HWin3.9
20129ravcleBoxscore2515-3.5RWin3.8
201213dalphiBoxscore3833-10.5HWin3.8
201214dalcinBoxscore20193.5RWin3.7
201217chidetBoxscore2624-3RWin3.7
201212cltbufBoxscore2013-3HWin3.4
201210tamsdgBoxscore3424-3HWin3.2
201211atlcrdBoxscore2319-9.5HWin3.1
201217wasdalBoxscore2818-3HWin3
20128gnbjaxBoxscore2415-16HWin2.9
201217mingnbBoxscore37343HWin2.9
20129pitnygBoxscore24203.5RWin2.9
20124gnbnorBoxscore2827-7.5HWin2.8
201214phitamBoxscore23217RWin2.7
201214cltotiBoxscore2723-4HWin2.7
201216cltkanBoxscore2013-6RWin2.5
20128chicarBoxscore2322-7.5HWin2.5
20129tamraiBoxscore42321RWin2.5
201215sfonweBoxscore41345RWin2.3
20126densdgBoxscore35240RWin2.1
201217tamatlBoxscore22173RWin2
20121denpitBoxscore3119-2HWin2
20123ravnweBoxscore3130-3HWin1.9
20123raipitBoxscore34314HWin1.7
20129cltmiaBoxscore23202HWin1.6
201212miaseaBoxscore24213HWin1.5
20125miacinBoxscore17133RWin1.4
20128clesdgBoxscore763HWin1.3
20122ramwasBoxscore31283.5HWin1.2
201213cltdetBoxscore35337RWin1.1
20121phicleBoxscore1716-9.5RWin1.1
20125atlwasBoxscore2417-3RWin1.1
20124ramseaBoxscore19132.5HWin1
201210htxchiBoxscore1361RWin1
20128cltotiBoxscore19133RWin0.9
20126seanweBoxscore24234HWin0.9
20122phiravBoxscore2423-3HWin0.8
20121sfognbBoxscore30225.5RWin0.8
20126otipitBoxscore26236.5HWin0.8
201213cinsdgBoxscore2013-2.5RWin0.8
20123seagnbBoxscore14123.5HWin0.8
201210dalphiBoxscore3823-2.5RWin0.8
20127sfoseaBoxscore136-7.5HWin0.7
201215otinyjBoxscore1410-1HWin0.7
201211bufmiaBoxscore1914-2.5HWin0.7
20125seacarBoxscore16122RWin0.7
20127nygwasBoxscore2723-6.5HWin0.7
201217searamBoxscore2013-12HWin0.6
20127otibufBoxscore35344.5RWin0.4
201210nwebufBoxscore3731-13.5HWin0.4
20122carnorBoxscore35273HWin0.4
20121crdseaBoxscore20163HWin0.3
201214nyjjaxBoxscore1710-3RWin0.3
20125norsdgBoxscore3124-3.5HWin0.2
201210noratlBoxscore31271.5HWin0.2
201214rambufBoxscore15123RWin0.2
20124phinygBoxscore1917-1.5HWin0.1
20122nygtamBoxscore4134-8HWin0.1
20125cltgnbBoxscore30276.5HWin0.1
20126ravdalBoxscore3129-3HWin0
20122crdnweBoxscore201813.5RWin0
20121ramdetBoxscore23279RLoss0
20121norwasBoxscore3240-9HLoss0
20122mincltBoxscore2023-3RLoss0
20123cltjaxBoxscore1722-3HLoss0
20123denhtxBoxscore25311.5HLoss0
20123wascinBoxscore3138-3HLoss0
20124cleravBoxscore162311.5RLoss0
20124caratlBoxscore28307RLoss0
20124detminBoxscore1320-4HLoss0
20124tamwasBoxscore2224-2HLoss0
20125nyjhtxBoxscore172310HLoss0
20126raiatlBoxscore202310RLoss0
20126rammiaBoxscore14175RLoss0
20127cardalBoxscore14192.5HLoss0
20127clecltBoxscore13171RLoss0
20127tamnorBoxscore28351.5HLoss0
20128dalnygBoxscore24292.5HLoss0
20128seadetBoxscore24283RLoss0
20129dalatlBoxscore13194.5RLoss0
20129wascarBoxscore1321-3HLoss0
201211cartamBoxscore21271.5HLoss0
201211sdgdenBoxscore23307.5RLoss0
201211detgnbBoxscore20243HLoss0
201211pitravBoxscore10133HLoss0
201212pitcleBoxscore1420-2RLoss0
201212otijaxBoxscore1924-3.5RLoss0
201212kandenBoxscore91710.5HLoss0
201212tamatlBoxscore23241.5HLoss0
201213chiseaBoxscore1723-3.5HLoss0
201213carkanBoxscore2127-6RLoss0
201215chignbBoxscore13213HLoss0
201216jaxnweBoxscore162314.5HLoss0
201216phiwasBoxscore20276HLoss0
201216pitcinBoxscore1013-3.5HLoss0
201210sforamBoxscore2424-13Ht0
201210ramsfoBoxscore242413Rt0
20121detramBoxscore2723-9HWin0
20121wasnorBoxscore40329RWin0
20122cltminBoxscore23203HWin0
20123jaxcltBoxscore22173RWin0
20123htxdenBoxscore3125-1.5RWin0
20123cinwasBoxscore38313RWin0
20124ravcleBoxscore2316-11.5HWin0
20124atlcarBoxscore3028-7HWin0
20124mindetBoxscore20134RWin0
20124wastamBoxscore24222RWin0
20125htxnyjBoxscore2317-10RWin0
20126atlraiBoxscore2320-10HWin0
20126miaramBoxscore1714-5HWin0
20127dalcarBoxscore1914-2.5RWin0
20127cltcleBoxscore1713-1HWin0
20127nortamBoxscore3528-1.5RWin0
20128nygdalBoxscore2924-2.5RWin0
20128detseaBoxscore2824-3HWin0
20129atldalBoxscore1913-4.5HWin0
20129carwasBoxscore21133RWin0
201211tamcarBoxscore2721-1.5RWin0
201211densdgBoxscore3023-7.5HWin0
201211gnbdetBoxscore2420-3RWin0
201211ravpitBoxscore1310-3RWin0
201212clepitBoxscore20142HWin0
201212jaxotiBoxscore24193.5HWin0
201212denkanBoxscore179-10.5RWin0
201212atltamBoxscore2423-1.5RWin0
201213seachiBoxscore23173.5RWin0
201213kancarBoxscore27216HWin0
201215gnbchiBoxscore2113-3RWin0
201216nwejaxBoxscore2316-14.5RWin0
201216wasphiBoxscore2720-6RWin0
201216cinpitBoxscore13103.5RWin0
201215pitdalBoxscore2427-2.5RLoss0
201215dalpitBoxscore27242.5HWin0
201210kanpitBoxscore131613RLoss0
201210pitkanBoxscore1613-13HWin0
201216dalnorBoxscore3134-3HLoss0
201216nordalBoxscore34313RWin0
20127jaxraiBoxscore23266RLoss0
20127raijaxBoxscore2623-6HWin0
201214ravwasBoxscore28311.5RLoss0
201214wasravBoxscore3128-1.5HWin0
20126phidetBoxscore2326-3.5HLoss0
20126detphiBoxscore26233.5RWin0
20124miacrdBoxscore21244RLoss0
20124crdmiaBoxscore2421-4HWin0
20126crdbufBoxscore1619-5HLoss0
20126bufcrdBoxscore19165RWin0
20123norkanBoxscore2427-8.5HLoss0
20123kannorBoxscore27248.5RWin0
20121jaxminBoxscore23263.5RLoss0
20121minjaxBoxscore2623-3.5HWin0
201211cledalBoxscore20237RLoss0
201211dalcleBoxscore2320-7HWin0
20123mianyjBoxscore20233HLoss0
20123nyjmiaBoxscore2320-3RWin0
20127nyjnweBoxscore262910.5RLoss0
20127nwenyjBoxscore2926-10.5HWin0
20123detotiBoxscore4144-4RLoss0
20123otidetBoxscore44414HWin0
201212sdgravBoxscore13161HLoss0
201212ravsdgBoxscore1613-1RWin0
201212dethtxBoxscore31344HLoss0
201212htxdetBoxscore3431-4RWin0
201213sforamBoxscore1316-8RLoss0
201213ramsfoBoxscore16138HWin0
201211jaxhtxBoxscore374315.5RLoss0
201211htxjaxBoxscore4337-15.5HWin0
20122nwecrdBoxscore1820-13.5HLoss0
20126dalravBoxscore29313RLoss0
20125gnbcltBoxscore2730-6.5RLoss0.1
20122tamnygBoxscore34418RLoss0.1
20124nygphiBoxscore17191.5RLoss0.1
201210atlnorBoxscore2731-1.5RLoss0.2
201214buframBoxscore1215-3HLoss0.2
20125sdgnorBoxscore24313.5RLoss0.2
201214jaxnyjBoxscore10173HLoss0.3
20121seacrdBoxscore1620-3RLoss0.3
20122norcarBoxscore2735-3RLoss0.4
201210bufnweBoxscore313713.5RLoss0.4
20127bufotiBoxscore3435-4.5HLoss0.4
201217ramseaBoxscore132012RLoss0.6
20125carseaBoxscore1216-2HLoss0.7
20127wasnygBoxscore23276.5RLoss0.7
201211miabufBoxscore14192.5RLoss0.7
20127seasfoBoxscore6137.5RLoss0.7
201215nyjotiBoxscore10141RLoss0.7
20123gnbseaBoxscore1214-3.5RLoss0.8
201210phidalBoxscore23382.5HLoss0.8
20121gnbsfoBoxscore2230-5.5HLoss0.8
20126pitotiBoxscore2326-6.5RLoss0.8
201213sdgcinBoxscore13202.5HLoss0.8
20122ravphiBoxscore23243RLoss0.8
20126nweseaBoxscore2324-4RLoss0.9
20128oticltBoxscore1319-3HLoss0.9
20124searamBoxscore1319-2.5RLoss1
201210chihtxBoxscore613-1HLoss1
20121clephiBoxscore16179.5HLoss1.1
20125wasatlBoxscore17243HLoss1.1
201213detcltBoxscore3335-7HLoss1.1
20122wasramBoxscore2831-3.5RLoss1.2
20128sdgcleBoxscore67-3RLoss1.3
20125cinmiaBoxscore1317-3HLoss1.4
201212seamiaBoxscore2124-3RLoss1.5
20129miacltBoxscore2023-2RLoss1.6
20123pitraiBoxscore3134-4RLoss1.7
20123nweravBoxscore30313RLoss1.9
20121pitdenBoxscore19312RLoss2
201217atltamBoxscore1722-3HLoss2
20126sdgdenBoxscore24350HLoss2.1
201215nwesfoBoxscore3441-5HLoss2.3
20128carchiBoxscore22237.5RLoss2.5
20129raitamBoxscore3242-1HLoss2.5
201216kancltBoxscore13206HLoss2.5
201214oticltBoxscore23274RLoss2.7
201214tamphiBoxscore2123-7HLoss2.7
20124norgnbBoxscore27287.5RLoss2.8
20129nygpitBoxscore2024-3.5HLoss2.9
201217gnbminBoxscore3437-3RLoss2.9
20128jaxgnbBoxscore152416RLoss2.9
201217dalwasBoxscore18283RLoss3
201211crdatlBoxscore19239.5RLoss3.1
201210sdgtamBoxscore24343RLoss3.2
201212bufcltBoxscore13203RLoss3.4
201217detchiBoxscore24263HLoss3.7
201214cindalBoxscore1920-3.5HLoss3.7
20129cleravBoxscore15253.5HLoss3.8
201213phidalBoxscore333810.5RLoss3.8
201213nygwasBoxscore1617-3RLoss3.9
20127cinpitBoxscore1724-1HLoss4
201214miasfoBoxscore132710.5RLoss4.2
201212phicarBoxscore22303HLoss4.5
20125kanravBoxscore696.5HLoss4.5
20123tamdalBoxscore10167RLoss4.7
201216raicarBoxscore6179.5RLoss5.3
201217ravcinBoxscore17233RLoss6.1
201213ravpitBoxscore2023-7.5HLoss6.2
201217clepitBoxscore10249.5RLoss6.5
20125phipitBoxscore14164RLoss6.6
201214detgnbBoxscore20276.5RLoss7.2
201213crdnyjBoxscore676RLoss7.9
20129cindenBoxscore23315.5HLoss8.6
20123ramchiBoxscore6237RLoss9.1
201210detminBoxscore2434-3RLoss9.2
201213raicleBoxscore17202.5HLoss9.5
201213noratlBoxscore13233.5RLoss10.1
20121cartamBoxscore1016-3RLoss11.2
20126cincleBoxscore2434-2RLoss11.2
20129minseaBoxscore20304RLoss11.8
201215clthtxBoxscore172910.5RLoss11.9
20121nygdalBoxscore1724-4HLoss13.1
201217htxcltBoxscore1628-6RLoss13.2
20124bufnweBoxscore28524.5HLoss13.4
201216detatlBoxscore18314HLoss13.4
20123clebufBoxscore14243HLoss14.6
201217nyjbufBoxscore9283.5RLoss14.8
20121cinravBoxscore13447RLoss14.8
201213mingnbBoxscore14237.5RLoss15
201215phicinBoxscore13345HLoss15.4
20129kansdgBoxscore13317RLoss15.9
201210nyjseaBoxscore7285.5RLoss16.9
201212norsfoBoxscore21311.5HLoss17.3
20125crdramBoxscore317-1.5RLoss17.3
201212crdramBoxscore1731-1HLoss17.5
201213mianweBoxscore16239HLoss17.9
20129bufhtxBoxscore92111.5RLoss17.9
201216nyjsdgBoxscore1727-3HLoss18.3
201214chiminBoxscore1421-1.5RLoss18.5
201217norcarBoxscore3844-4HLoss18.8
20121raisdgBoxscore1422-1HLoss19.3
20125jaxchiBoxscore3416.5HLoss20.1
20122raimiaBoxscore1335-2RLoss20.2
201211ramnyjBoxscore1327-3.5HLoss21.2
201213tamdenBoxscore23317.5RLoss23
201215jaxmiaBoxscore3247.5RLoss23.5
201217crdsfoBoxscore132716.5RLoss23.8
20121kanatlBoxscore24402.5HLoss24.1
20124otihtxBoxscore143813.5RLoss24.4
20122dalseaBoxscore727-3RLoss24.7
20122nyjpitBoxscore10274.5RLoss26
201215clewasBoxscore2138-4HLoss26.4
201214raidenBoxscore132610.5HLoss27.6
201217jaxotiBoxscore20385.5RLoss27.9
20124raidenBoxscore6376.5RLoss29
20127crdminBoxscore14216.5RLoss29.1
201214nornygBoxscore27524.5RLoss29.7
20128kanraiBoxscore1626-1HLoss29.9
20122clecinBoxscore27347RLoss30
20122detsfoBoxscore19277RLoss30
20126sfonygBoxscore326-7HLoss30
201211cltnweBoxscore245910RLoss30
201213jaxbufBoxscore18346RLoss30
201214kancleBoxscore7307RLoss30
201216tamramBoxscore1328-3HLoss30
20125clenygBoxscore27418RLoss30.3
20125bufsfoBoxscore34510RLoss30.5
201215detcrdBoxscore1038-6.5RLoss30.5
20126minwasBoxscore2638-2RLoss30.7
20127ramgnbBoxscore20305HLoss30.7
20126kantamBoxscore10385RLoss30.9
201215kanraiBoxscore0154.5RLoss30.9
20124nyjsfoBoxscore0344HLoss31.2
20121miahtxBoxscore103013.5RLoss31.6
201216htxminBoxscore623-7.5HLoss31.7
20124dalchiBoxscore1834-3HLoss32.6
201216bufmiaBoxscore10245RLoss33
20124jaxcinBoxscore1027-1.5HLoss33.3
20128nordenBoxscore14346.5RLoss34.4
20125dennweBoxscore21316RLoss35.1
201214pitsdgBoxscore2434-7.5HLoss35.3
20129crdgnbBoxscore173110.5RLoss36.6
20128mintamBoxscore1736-5.5HLoss37.1
20122chignbBoxscore10235.5RLoss37.9
201217kandenBoxscore33817RLoss39.5
20128crdsfoBoxscore3247HLoss39.6
20121cltchiBoxscore214110RLoss39.7
20128ramnweBoxscore7457HLoss39.9
201212nyjnweBoxscore19497HLoss39.9
201211kancinBoxscore6283HLoss40.1
20123sdgatlBoxscore327-3HLoss40.5
201212dalwasBoxscore3138-3.5HLoss40.6
201215ramminBoxscore2236-2.5HLoss40.9
20121otinweBoxscore13346.5HLoss41.1
20129jaxdetBoxscore14316HLoss41.3
20125otiminBoxscore7306RLoss41.4
201212minchiBoxscore10286.5RLoss42
20129phinorBoxscore13283RLoss42.1
201216nygravBoxscore1433-2.5RLoss42.2
20123sfominBoxscore1324-7RLoss42.2
20126cltnyjBoxscore9353RLoss42.9
201210cardenBoxscore14364HLoss43.6
201211phiwasBoxscore6313.5RLoss44.3
20127ravhtxBoxscore13436.5RLoss44.9
20122kanbufBoxscore17353RLoss45.4
201216crdchiBoxscore13287HLoss45.6
201215ravdenBoxscore17343HLoss46.1
201213otihtxBoxscore10247HLoss47.1
20121bufnyjBoxscore28483RLoss47.4
201212gnbnygBoxscore10382.5RLoss47.4
20126htxgnbBoxscore2442-4HLoss47.8
20122jaxhtxBoxscore7277HLoss47.9
201217mianweBoxscore02810RLoss47.9
201210jaxcltBoxscore10273.5HLoss48.2
20129otichiBoxscore20515HLoss48.8
20128nyjmiaBoxscore930-1HLoss49
20127detchiBoxscore7136.5RLoss49
201211rainorBoxscore17386.5HLoss49.1
201215tamnorBoxscore0413.5RLoss49.1
201216cledenBoxscore123411RLoss49.6
20128phiatlBoxscore1730-3HLoss49.8
201210miaotiBoxscore337-7HLoss50
201214atlcarBoxscore2030-3.5RLoss50.2
201216otignbBoxscore75511RLoss50.4
201214htxnweBoxscore14425.5RLoss50.5
20128waspitBoxscore12274.5RLoss50.8
201215sdgcarBoxscore731-3HLoss51.5
20123phicrdBoxscore627-3RLoss51.6
201210rairavBoxscore20557.5RLoss52.2
201215nygatlBoxscore0340RLoss52.4
201212raicinBoxscore10348RLoss52.5
20122otisdgBoxscore10386RLoss53
201214crdseaBoxscore05810RLoss53.3
201215bufseaBoxscore17505HLoss53.5
20123carnygBoxscore736-3HLoss53.5
201211chisfoBoxscore7325RLoss53.5
20124kansdgBoxscore20372.5HLoss53.7
201217phinygBoxscore7426.5RLoss54.1
201217raisdgBoxscore21248RLoss54.5
201216sfoseaBoxscore13422RLoss54.7
201210nygcinBoxscore1331-4.5RLoss56.2
20122denatlBoxscore21273RLoss56.8

Here’s another quirk: the earliest knockout all season came against Peyton Manning the Broncos! In that game, Manning threw an interception on the third play of the game, and the Falcons went up 7-0 with 13:27 remaining. Manning threw another interception with 11:56 to go, and Matt Ryan then led the Falcons on a short drive for a field goal. That means just over three minutes to game was the last play in which the Broncos had the ball on offense within one score of the Falcons. You might recall that the Broncos nearly won this game — Willis McGahee scored a touchdown to cut it to 27-21 with just over 3 minutes remaining, but the Falcons were able to run out the clock.

{ 5 comments… add one }

  • James July 2, 2013, 7:52 am

    Seems to me like a knockout should be redefined to the earliest point the win expectancy crossed and stayed above some threshold for the rest of the game, say 90 or 95%. Say the Broncos against the Falcons got the ball back down 6 but inside their own 20 with seconds left in the game. Technically the knockout in that game would be 0 seconds as time expires, but we know from past experience they weren’t ever close to winning.

    Also, is being down 8 considered one score?

    • Chase Stuart July 2, 2013, 7:58 am

      Yes, 8 is considered one score.

  • xmenehune July 2, 2013, 1:09 pm

    you have every single game for 2012 season listed twice, shouldn’t this table stop at SF/STL game? (aka sfo / ram their tie game)

  • xmenehune July 2, 2013, 1:10 pm

    BTW nice work, are the results similiar for 2010 and 2011 seasons? just wondering…

  • George August 3, 2013, 2:36 pm

    Sorry for being super late on this – I haven’t had access to a computer for about 6 weeks (long story). I just had a couple of quick thoughts on this and was just wondering if there was anything to these;

    1) Was there any particular combination that was administering a disproportionate amount of knock-outs (e.g. for New England, Brady to Welker in the red zone on say a shallow cross etc. – I’m just taking a guess or say RG3 to Morris off the left side inside the 5 etc.)?
    2) The one that is of real interest to me (that I am starting to look at now I have a computer back), was there a terminal point score of choice – e.g. once a team has scored say 35 points it has an 95+% chance of winning? I’m figuring (taking FG’s out of consideration), the third, fourth or fifth touchdown scored by a team is worth a lot more than the first in terms of a teams chances of winning (e.g. it has a bigger marginal percentage increase in the win chance of a team). And following on from this the say sixth or seventh would be worth less (e.g. with the win in the bag etc.).

    Great work as ever.

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